The reliability assessment for an automobile crankshaft provides an important understanding in dealing with the design life of the component in order to eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failure and safety risks.T...The reliability assessment for an automobile crankshaft provides an important understanding in dealing with the design life of the component in order to eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failure and safety risks.The failures of the crankshafts are considered as a catastrophic failure that leads towards a severe failure of the engine block and its other connecting subcomponents.The reliability of an automotive crankshaft under mixed mode loading using the Markov Chain Model is studied.The Markov Chain is modelled by using a two-state condition to represent the bending and torsion loads that would occur on the crankshaft.The automotive crankshaft represents a good case study of a component under mixed mode loading due to the rotating bending and torsion stresses.An estimation of the Weibull shape parameter is used to obtain the probability density function,cumulative distribution function,hazard and reliability rate functions,the bathtub curve and the mean time to failure.The various properties of the shape parameter is used to model the failure characteristic through the bathtub curve is shown.Likewise,an understanding of the patterns posed by the hazard rate onto the component can be used to improve the design and increase the life cycle based on the reliability and dependability of the component.The proposed reliability assessment provides an accurate,efficient,fast and cost effective reliability analysis in contrast to costly and lengthy experimental techniques.展开更多
Bangladesh is a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and high humidity. Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water everywhere in the Ban...Bangladesh is a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and high humidity. Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water everywhere in the Bangladesh where the inhabitants derive their income primarily from farming. Stochastic rainfall models were concerned with the occurrence of wet day and depth of rainfall for different regions to model the daily occurrence of rainfall and achieved satisfactory results around the world. In connection to the Markov chain of different order, logistic regression is conducted to visualize the dependence of current rainfall upon the rainfall of previous two-time period. It had been shown that wet day of the previous two time period compared to the dry day of previous two time period influences positively the wet day of current time period, that is the dependency of dry-wet spell for the occurrence of rain in the rainy season from April to September in the study area. Daily data are collected from meteorological department of about 26 years on rainfall of Dhaka station during the period January 1985-August 2011 to conduct the study. The test result shows that the occurrence of rainfall follows a second order Markov chain and logistic regression also tells that dry followed by dry and wet followed by wet is more likely for the rainfall of Dhaka station and also the model could perform adequately for many applications of rainfall data satisfactorily.展开更多
以孤岛运行模式下的风柴储微网为研究对象,本文提出了一种全新的孤岛微网风险指标评价体系,即负荷损失指标(Load Loss Risk,LLR)和电源损失指标(Power Loss Risk,PLR),从用电和发电两个角度全面评估其风险水平。首先,对风柴储微网各元...以孤岛运行模式下的风柴储微网为研究对象,本文提出了一种全新的孤岛微网风险指标评价体系,即负荷损失指标(Load Loss Risk,LLR)和电源损失指标(Power Loss Risk,PLR),从用电和发电两个角度全面评估其风险水平。首先,对风柴储微网各元件进行建模,特别是采用马尔可夫链建立了风电机组多状态可靠性模型,体现了风速变化的连续性。其次,在微网各元件可靠性模型的基础上,模拟微网的运行情况,并采用全新的风险评估指标量化其运行风险。最后,以欧洲典型低压风柴储微网为例,算例验证了本文所提指标的合理性,并对不同风速、风机故障率、风电装机容量以及储能容量对微网孤岛运行风险的影响进行了灵敏度分析,所得评估结果可为风柴储孤岛微网的容量配置以及规划运行提供参考。展开更多
基金Supported by the Ministry of Education Malaysia(HLP Program,Grant No.HLP-KPT.B.600-2/3-781226085655)
文摘The reliability assessment for an automobile crankshaft provides an important understanding in dealing with the design life of the component in order to eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failure and safety risks.The failures of the crankshafts are considered as a catastrophic failure that leads towards a severe failure of the engine block and its other connecting subcomponents.The reliability of an automotive crankshaft under mixed mode loading using the Markov Chain Model is studied.The Markov Chain is modelled by using a two-state condition to represent the bending and torsion loads that would occur on the crankshaft.The automotive crankshaft represents a good case study of a component under mixed mode loading due to the rotating bending and torsion stresses.An estimation of the Weibull shape parameter is used to obtain the probability density function,cumulative distribution function,hazard and reliability rate functions,the bathtub curve and the mean time to failure.The various properties of the shape parameter is used to model the failure characteristic through the bathtub curve is shown.Likewise,an understanding of the patterns posed by the hazard rate onto the component can be used to improve the design and increase the life cycle based on the reliability and dependability of the component.The proposed reliability assessment provides an accurate,efficient,fast and cost effective reliability analysis in contrast to costly and lengthy experimental techniques.
文摘Bangladesh is a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, moderately warm temperatures, and high humidity. Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water everywhere in the Bangladesh where the inhabitants derive their income primarily from farming. Stochastic rainfall models were concerned with the occurrence of wet day and depth of rainfall for different regions to model the daily occurrence of rainfall and achieved satisfactory results around the world. In connection to the Markov chain of different order, logistic regression is conducted to visualize the dependence of current rainfall upon the rainfall of previous two-time period. It had been shown that wet day of the previous two time period compared to the dry day of previous two time period influences positively the wet day of current time period, that is the dependency of dry-wet spell for the occurrence of rain in the rainy season from April to September in the study area. Daily data are collected from meteorological department of about 26 years on rainfall of Dhaka station during the period January 1985-August 2011 to conduct the study. The test result shows that the occurrence of rainfall follows a second order Markov chain and logistic regression also tells that dry followed by dry and wet followed by wet is more likely for the rainfall of Dhaka station and also the model could perform adequately for many applications of rainfall data satisfactorily.
文摘以孤岛运行模式下的风柴储微网为研究对象,本文提出了一种全新的孤岛微网风险指标评价体系,即负荷损失指标(Load Loss Risk,LLR)和电源损失指标(Power Loss Risk,PLR),从用电和发电两个角度全面评估其风险水平。首先,对风柴储微网各元件进行建模,特别是采用马尔可夫链建立了风电机组多状态可靠性模型,体现了风速变化的连续性。其次,在微网各元件可靠性模型的基础上,模拟微网的运行情况,并采用全新的风险评估指标量化其运行风险。最后,以欧洲典型低压风柴储微网为例,算例验证了本文所提指标的合理性,并对不同风速、风机故障率、风电装机容量以及储能容量对微网孤岛运行风险的影响进行了灵敏度分析,所得评估结果可为风柴储孤岛微网的容量配置以及规划运行提供参考。
