The impact of climate changes on mass events in China

There is an increasing number of "mass events" in China's Mainland.My study extends the current studies to the context of China and tries to examine the potential impacts of climate changes on human conflias in China.The results suggest a strong linkage between the deviation of monthly mean temperature from the historical mean and the number of mass events in a province.If the current trend of warming persists,in the next 6-8 decades,the number of mass events in China will increase by over 8.8%.

Medical Care at Mass Gatherings: The Case of TIF-HELEXPO Trade Fairs and Events

The provision of medical care during major events is a significant issue,both for organisers and for the emergency services that support these events.Nevertheless,research on this matter is limited.This research attempts to approach the matter through the study of fairs and events held at TIF-HELEXPO during the 2015-2018 period(1,774 medical incidents).Result analysis indicated that there are no significant differentiations in the number of medical incidents with regard to gender,age,country of origin,status,type of illness,and outcome of incidents;however,there were differentiations in the frequency of incidents,with regards to the character of the fair and the event.

Stratigraphical Time——Correlation and Mass Extinction Event Near Permian——Triassic Boundary in South China

Shaw's method used to correlate 40 sections across the Permo-Triassic boundary in South China is applied in the paper. Two steps are adopted to get an Integral Composite Section (ICS) by synthesizing these data : First , South China is divided into five areas and composite section developed for each area . Then the second step . the Changxing composite section is regarded as a composite standard (CSRS) while the ICS is produced by matching the CSRS with composite sections of the other areas. Three biozones in the Changxingian and two biozones in the Griesbachian can be discerned on the basis of computing Z values in the ICS. These biozones are marked by the Z values which quantitatively represent their time ranges ; therefore , they may increase accuracy of stratigraphic time correlation . The mass extinction at the end of the Permian is an abrupt event that is supported by the relative rate of extinction near the P/T boundary . About 90% of invertebrate species died out by the end of the Permian . The duration of the mass extinction is rather short ,approximately 0.018Ma .

Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.

The temporal and spatial variability of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in the southeastern Yellow Sea, 2009–2011

The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass （YSCWM） is one of the important water mass in the Yellow Sea （YS）. It is distributed in the lower layer in the Yellow Sea central trough with the temperature less than 10℃ and the salinity lower than 33.0. To understand the variability of the YSCWM, the hydrographic data obtained in April and August during 2009-2011 are analyzed in the southeastern Yellow Sea. In August 2011, relatively warm and saline water compared with that in 2009 and 2010 was detected in the lower layer in the Yellow Sea central area. Although the typhoon passed before the cruise, the salinity in the Yellow Sea central trough is much higher than the previous season. It means that the saline event cannot be explained by the typhoon but only by the intrusion of saline water during the previous winter. In April 2011, actually, warm and saline water （T 〉 10~C, S 〉34） was observed in the deepest water depth of the southeastern area of the Yellow Sea. The wind data show that the northerly wind in 2011 winter is stronger than in 2009 and 2010 winter season. The strong northerly wind can trigger the intrusion of warm and saline Yellow Sea Warm Current. Therefore, it is proposed that the strong northerly wind in winter season leads to the intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current into the Yellow Sea central trough and influenced a variability of the YSCWM in summer.

我国群众性与竞技性赛事融合发展的机理、现实与策略

推动群众性与竞技性赛事融合发展对建设中国式现代化体育强国具有重要意义。在群众性与竞技性赛事融合发展中,以人民为中心和以运动项目为基本的共同基础是前提,边界逐渐模糊是加快融合的条件,以此构造全民参与的竞争型赛事样板的融合雏形。透过厘清“双赛”融合脉络探讨当前存在的根源性问题、主体性问题、内容性问题和体制性问题,表现为“双赛”融合认识不足制约互动关系、“双赛”地位竞争引致角色冲突、运动项目融入不深导致根基不稳和缺乏政策体系保障削弱融合动力。基于此,提出以体育强国建设为目标,强化“双赛”融合认识;以多元主体协同为抓手,促进“双赛”多方面融合;以运动项目为核心内容,推动“双赛”构建新发展形态;加强体制机制保障,促动政策资源向群众性赛事倾斜。

Terrestrial End-Triassic Mass Extinction and the Triassic/Jurassic Boundary of the Junggar Basin,NW China:A Brief Review

1 Introduction The end-Triassic mass extinction event is one of the five global mass extinctions,and destroyed both the marine and terrestrial biological worlds.Though years the marine endTriassic mass extinction(ETE)event has been widely studied and discussed,and the standard marine Triassic/Jurassic boundary(TJB)(base-Jurassic)has also been determined.However.

我国乡村体育赛事发展经验及展望

运用文献资料、实地调研等方法,探讨我国乡村体育赛事的价值,总结其经验,并提出展望。价值:吸引群众广泛参与,形成全民健身发展热潮;激发体育消费潜力,助力乡村经济发展;搭建传统文化传承平台,丰富乡村体育赛事文化;推动办赛模式创新,提升乡村办赛能力。经验:紧密依托地方,推动赛事发展;鼓励全民参与,增强社会认同;创新传播方式,引发社会关注;融合地方特色,丰富赛事内容;多元主体合作,保障赛事开展。展望:推动办赛体制改革,构建协同化赛事保障;坚持村民共商共建,推动赛事生活化发展;加强赛事市场监管,树立规范化赛事形象;凸显地方文化内涵,打造个性化赛事IP;培养专业化人才队伍,促进赛事高质量发展。

Correlation between Rainfall and Mass Movements in North Coast Region of Sao Paulo State, Brazil for 2014-2018

The monitoring of related hourly and accumulated rainfall index requires that critical thresholds of accumulated 72 hours rainfall are updated frequently according with the factors and local conditions (natural and anthropic) of each specific risk area. The importance of empirical methods is fundamental to confirm the relationship between rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall with the mass movement events, in order to establish the critical threshold values. The present work performs an evaluation of the record data of mass movement events occurred in Sao Paulo State North coast region for a 4-year period (2014 to 2018) considering different mass movement characteristics (slope type, magnitude and impact level). Some rainfall values were obtained to show that within these parameters an event related to natural and anthropic features was triggered. A database was created, sorting source of information and municipalities monitored, to implement the correlation between the mass movement events and the rainfall values. To elaborate the event’s map, reliable record data of localization of the mass movement events was selected, as well as the nearest possible raingauges of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters);also the exact event triggering time, selection by the slope type, the magnitude and the impact level of the mass movement event. The rainfall values of these raingauges allowed the calculation of the accumulated rainfall index for 1, 3, 6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours, with the adoption of the 72 hours index for this work. The correlation graphics are divided by the slope type, the magnitude and the impact level of the mass movement event. Different critical thresholds appear, classifying such event by the influence level of triggering factors, natural and/or anthropic.

Test of newly developed conceptual hydrological model for simulation of rain-on-snow events in forested watershed

A conceptual hydrological model that links the Xin＇anjiang hydrological model and a physically based snow energy and mass balance model, described as the XINSNOBAL model, was developed in this study for simulating rain-on-snow events that commonly occur in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resultant model was applied to the Lookout Creek Watershed in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and its ability to simulate streamflow was evaluated. The simulation was conducted at 24-hour and one-hour time scales for the period of 1996 to 2005. The results indicated that runoffand peak discharge could be underestimated if snowpack accumulation and snowmelt under rain-on-snow conditions were not taken into account. The average deterministic coefficient of the hourly model in streamflow simulation in the calibration stage was 0.837, which was significantly improved over the value of 0.762 when the Xin＇anjiang model was used alone. Good simulation performance of the XINSNOBAL model in the WS 10 catchment, using the calibrated parameter of the Lookout Creek Watershed for proxy-basin testing, demonstrates that transplanting model parameters between similar watersheds can orovide a useful tool for discharge forecastin~, in un^au^ed basins.

我国群众体育赛事的演变特征与多维价值

群众体育赛事作为推动全民健身和促进体育产业发展的重要手段,在我国体育事业中占据着重要地位。分析我国群众体育赛事的演变特征,探讨其在促进体育消费、增强国民体质、传承体育文化、优化体育资源配置等方面的多维价值,为我国群众体育赛事的持续发展提供理论支持和实践指导。

环境差异视角下我国高山滑雪运动的大众化培育

高山滑雪运动是大众冬季运动的重要形式,但由于我国滑雪产业起步较晚,项目开展环境存在地区差异,导致当前高山滑雪运动的大众参与率较低,普及发展并不均衡。通过分析国内外高山滑雪优势区域的综合环境,发现优越的自然环境、完善的雪场基础设施、舒适便捷的配套服务以及浓厚的滑雪文化是这些区域吸引大众、快速发展的保障。对此,提出宏观引领微观扶持,多元发展滑雪产业;完善雪场配套供给,优化滑雪消费环境;依托滑雪赛事活动,丰富大众休闲方式;厚植传播滑雪文化,增强大众参与意识等培育策略。旨在对照和借鉴高山滑雪优势区域的先进经验与举措,同步丰富高山滑雪运动的“硬件”供给和“软件”资源,加快我国高山滑雪运动的大众化培育,在后冬奥时代创造冰雪经济新的增长点。

Current-event Play and Circulation of Information in late Ming China

This essay examines current-event plays( shishiju 时事剧) and their social functions in late Ming China. Drawing on awide range or primary sources and built on secondary scholarship on information history,the essay offered a complete picture of the booming,features,social functions and the decline of the current-event plays. The essay argues that many current-event plays addressed on credibility,timeliness and easy accessibility,which enabled current-event plays to play an important role in information circulation. This essay further exposes the current-event plays not only opened a forum for public discussion but also influenced public opinions greatly from literate elites to the masses in Ming China. Through analyzing current-event plays in the context of Ming society,this essay expands the realm of studying information history.

数字化背景下群众性体育赛事破圈传播研究

采用文献资料法,探讨数字化背景下群众性体育赛事破圈传播的理论基础、现实影响与优化策略.研究认为:群众性体育赛事的破圈传播是通过创新、多样化的方式将传统的群众性体育赛事的影响力扩展到更广泛的社会群体和领域.其积极影响在于带动群众性体育赛事传播效率的提高、助力市场规模的扩大、并促进相关体育产业结构的优化;与此同时,其消极影响也不可忽视,主要表现在造成广泛的消极话语、隐私问题的不断加剧、导致伴生的社会隔阂.若要对数字化背景下群众性体育赛事破圈传播进行优化,就必须克服相关责任主体监管不严、同类体育赛事内容单一、线下体育热情仍然有限等掣肘,有必要通过多方协同完善机制,来加强优质内容供给,并反哺线下体育活动.

群众体育赛事文化赋能和美乡村建设研究--基于贵州“村BA”“村超”视角

随着全民健身和健康中国上升为国家战略,群众体育工作被提升至前所未有的高度。运用案例分析法,基于贵州“村BA”“村超”视角,对群众体育赛事文化赋能和美乡村建设进行研究,从理念勃兴、健康筑基、文化铸魂、产业赋能四方面阐释其中的价值意蕴;并结合群众体育赛事从环境吸引力、产业引领力、精神感召力与服务效力四方面提出和美乡村建设的路径,从而用好群众体育赛事文化资源,发挥群众体育赛事文化塑形、铸魂、提质、增效作用,激发全民健身活力,助力乡村振兴和体育强国建设。

新质生产力赋能我国街头体育赛事高质量发展研究

运用文献资料、实地调研、逻辑分析等方法,探索新质生产力赋能我国街头体育赛事高质量发展的逻辑内涵、作用机理、现实困境,并提出实践路径。作用机理:新质生产力赋能街头体育赛事推动区域协调发展;新质生产力赋能街头体育赛事转变发展方式;新质生产力驱动街头体育赛事共享数据要素。现实困境:技术应用与融合的挑战;赛事管理与运营的难度;文化融合与创新的不足。实践路径:深化应用融合,实现发展新动能;弥合数字鸿沟,促进区域协调发展;突破核心技术,坚持自主创新发展。

邻避类网络舆情何以演化为现实群体性事件?——基于30个案例的定性比较分析

[研究目的]邻避群体性事件呈现出从线上舆情参与到线下现实行动的特点,然而并非所有的邻避类网络舆情均演化为现实群体性事件,因而需要探寻邻避类网络舆情演化为现实群体性事件的内在机制。[研究方法]以斯梅尔塞价值累加理论为基础构建本土化分析框架,对30个邻避案例进行清晰集定性比较分析。[研究结果]结果表明:邻避类网络舆情演化为现实群体性事件并非受单一因素的影响,而是多种因素“累加”作用的结果;稀缺的制度化资源和丰富的网络资源是邻避舆情演化为现实群体性事件的基础条件;情绪感知和群体认同是邻避类网络舆情演化为现实群体性事件的关键因素;具有戏剧性、特异性和蕴含政府薄弱应急处置能力的促发因素是邻避舆情演化为现实群体性事件的重要诱因;情感累加驱动型和促发因素诱导型是邻避类网络舆情演化为现实群体性事件的主要路径。为有效阻断邻避舆情演化为现实群体性事件,一要优化邻避治理的资源供给,避免负面情绪的长期发酵和快速集聚;二要重塑政府形象,提升政府能力,建立政府权威;三要完善网络舆情治理,构建邻避类网络舆情的应对机制。

融合事理知识的群体性事件演化预测

[研究目的]当前,由社会矛盾和冲突所引发的网络群体性事件对公共安全构成了严重威胁,预测群体性事件的演化趋势对提升社会危机的防范与治理能力至关重要。[研究方法]提出了一种融合事理知识的群体性事件演化预测方法。该方法首先利用大语言模型蕴含的丰富事件知识及模型强大的生成能力来构建初始的事理图谱,通过结合真实新闻报道来验证图谱内容;其次,将事理图谱与图神经网络模型相结合,以获得更充分的事件语义表示;最后,基于上下文事件与候选事件间的语义相似度来预测未来可能发生的事件。[研究结论]研究表明,所提方法在事件演化预测的准确性和可解释性方面均显著优于参与比较的其他方法,验证了事理知识融合对揭示群体性事件演化模式的可行性和有效性。

中国群众体育赛事安全监管的协同治理体系构建--基于致死事件的循证分析

基于协同治理理论,对我国群众体育赛事致死事件进行循证分析。研究认为:群众体育赛事安全监管存在公权下放后地方与基层政府监管履责缺失与应急处置不力;私营企业运营群众体育赛事存在“责能”困境;单项体育协会在赛事运营管理中被边缘化;公民参赛的结构性不公正等问题。实现群众体育赛事安全监管协同治理需要重构政府权力,建立政社共治格局;加强市场准入监管,促进群众体育赛事规范化发展;厘清社会组织权责利关系,发挥单项体育协会主体作用;建立赛事资格审查制度,培养参赛者专业素养。

乡村振兴战略背景下乡村体育赛事品牌的生成机理与培育路径研究——以贵州“村BA”为例

运用文献资料法和案例分析法,以贵州“村BA”篮球赛为典型案例,探析乡村体育赛事品牌促进乡村振兴的时代价值、生成机理及培育路径。指出,乡村体育赛事品牌具有促进乡村产业、生态、文化、人才、组织振兴的多重价值。乡村体育赛事品牌的生成需要依赖政策规划做好顶层设计,依赖全民参与形成路径保障,依赖因地制宜凝练独特优势,依赖品牌策略提供有力支撑。在此基础上提出,通过系统培育赛事环境,夯实品牌发展基础;推动多元主体协同合作,凝聚品牌发展合力;利用资源驱动产业融合,拓展品牌发展模式;实施有效的品牌策略,扩大品牌影响。旨在为乡村体育赛事健康发展、促进乡村振兴提供参考借鉴。