I discuss the acquisition and use of“background”data in mathematical epidemiology models,advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data.I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring data,mainly fr...I discuss the acquisition and use of“background”data in mathematical epidemiology models,advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data.I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring data,mainly from open data sources.I also discuss incorporating this data into models.展开更多
In this paper, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infection-asymptomatic-hospitalized-recovered (SEIAHR) model with parameters on retrospective social distancing and masking. We estimated the model parameters from infor...In this paper, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infection-asymptomatic-hospitalized-recovered (SEIAHR) model with parameters on retrospective social distancing and masking. We estimated the model parameters from information published on the World Health Organization (WHO) website. We found that the actual reproduction number <em>R<sub>t</sub></em><sub> </sub>varies over the period from 03 March to 07 June 2020 and moreover, effective control over contacts and the frequency of population movement would reduce the evolution of the epidemic (control <em>c</em> <span style="white-space:nowrap;">≥</span> 50%). And the contact check has an influence on the base reproduction number <em>R</em><sub>0</sub>.展开更多
There are many cases within epidemiology where infections compete to persist within a population.In studying models for such cases,one of the goals is to determine which infections can invade a population and persist ...There are many cases within epidemiology where infections compete to persist within a population.In studying models for such cases,one of the goals is to determine which infections can invade a population and persist when other infections are already resident within the population.Invasion reproductive numbers(IRN),which are tied to the stability of boundary endemic equilibria,can address this question.By reinterpreting resident infections epidemiologically,this study extends methods for finding IRNs to periodic systems,and presents some examples which illustrate the often complex computations required.Results identify conditions under which a simple time-average can be used to derive IRNs,and apply the methods to examine how seasonal fluctuations in influenza incidence facilitate the year-round persistence of bacterial respiratory infections.展开更多
基金My work is partially funded by NSERC.Various funders supported the Bio.Diaspora Project,but the most important support for ideas presented here was a 2013e2015 CIHR/NSERC Collaborative Health Research Projects grant,Protecting Canadian Health,Security,and Prosperity through the Novel Integration of Global Epidemic Surveillance and Risk Modelling Technologies,that I held jointly with K.Khan(St Michael’s Hospital&Bluedot,Toronto).
文摘I discuss the acquisition and use of“background”data in mathematical epidemiology models,advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data.I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring data,mainly from open data sources.I also discuss incorporating this data into models.
文摘In this paper, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infection-asymptomatic-hospitalized-recovered (SEIAHR) model with parameters on retrospective social distancing and masking. We estimated the model parameters from information published on the World Health Organization (WHO) website. We found that the actual reproduction number <em>R<sub>t</sub></em><sub> </sub>varies over the period from 03 March to 07 June 2020 and moreover, effective control over contacts and the frequency of population movement would reduce the evolution of the epidemic (control <em>c</em> <span style="white-space:nowrap;">≥</span> 50%). And the contact check has an influence on the base reproduction number <em>R</em><sub>0</sub>.
文摘There are many cases within epidemiology where infections compete to persist within a population.In studying models for such cases,one of the goals is to determine which infections can invade a population and persist when other infections are already resident within the population.Invasion reproductive numbers(IRN),which are tied to the stability of boundary endemic equilibria,can address this question.By reinterpreting resident infections epidemiologically,this study extends methods for finding IRNs to periodic systems,and presents some examples which illustrate the often complex computations required.Results identify conditions under which a simple time-average can be used to derive IRNs,and apply the methods to examine how seasonal fluctuations in influenza incidence facilitate the year-round persistence of bacterial respiratory infections.
