Based on the CMIP5 simulation and numerical model, the permafrost thermal regime<span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Ve...Based on the CMIP5 simulation and numerical model, the permafrost thermal regime<span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> over Northern Hemisphere land during the early (2016-2035), middle (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) period of 21st century are projected, and its relationship with climate change is also analyzed. The results show that, relative to the reference period of 1986-2005, the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) over Northern Hemisphere shows an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend of the depth of zero annual amplitude (DZAA), and the most significant changes occur in Siberia, Tibetan Plateau, Canada arctic and Alaska, and the changes in MAGT and DZAA grow larger with time and emission, especially during the LP for RCP8.5, MAGT will increase by 4 </span></span></span><img src="Edit_55a9f4c6-dee0-46dd-b23f-879061d86c00.png" alt="" /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""></span> and DZAA decrease</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> by 1.5</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">m (the relative change exceeds 20%) in most regions. The changes of permafrost in the 21st century mainly depend on the changes of cold permafrost. The relationship between MAGT and air temperature as well as that between DZAA and air temperature suggests that the increase of MAGT and the decrease of DZAA are related to the increase of air temperature in winter, especially in January. However, the rate of change in MAGT and DZAA gradually declines, with the temperature increasing.</span></span></span>展开更多
In boreal forest ecosystems, permafrost and forest types are mutually interdependent;permafrost degradation impacts forest ecosystem structure and functions. The Xing’an permafrost in Northeast China is on the southe...In boreal forest ecosystems, permafrost and forest types are mutually interdependent;permafrost degradation impacts forest ecosystem structure and functions. The Xing’an permafrost in Northeast China is on the southern margin of the Eastern Asia latitudinal permafrost body. Under a warming climate, permafrost undergoes rapid and extensive degradation. In this study, the frost-number (Fn) model based on air temperatures and ground surface temperatures was used to predict the distribution of the Xing’an permafrost, and, temporal and spatial changes in air and ground-surface temperatures from 1961 to 2019 are analyzed. The results show that Northeast China has experienced a rapid and substantial climate warming over the past 60 years. The rises in mean annual air and mean annual ground-surface temperatures were higher in permafrost zones than those in the seasonal frost zone. The frost numbers of air and ground-surface temperatures were calculated for determining the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost and for permafrost zonation. The southern limits of discontinuous permafrost, sporadic permafrost, and latitudinal permafrost moved northward significantly. According to the air-temperature frost-number criteria for permafrost zoning, compared with that in the 1960s, the extent of Xing’an permafrost in Northeast China had decreased by 40.6% by the 2010s. With an average rate of increase in mean annual air temperatures at 0.03 ℃ a^(−1), the extent of permafrost in Northeast China will decrease to 26.42 × 10^(4) by 2020, 14.69 × 10^(4) by 2040 and to 11.24 × 10^(4) km^(2) by 2050. According to the ground-surface temperature frost-number criteria, the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost was at the 0.463. From the 1960s to the 2010s, the extent of latitudinal permafrost declined significantly. Due to the nature of the ecosystem-protected Xing’an-Baikal permafrost, management and protection (e.g., more prudent and effective forest fire management and proper logging of forests) of the Xing’an permafrost eco-environment should be strengthened.展开更多
Permafrost is one of the largest elements of the terrestrial cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change.Based on mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)data from 189 boreholes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(Q...Permafrost is one of the largest elements of the terrestrial cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change.Based on mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)data from 189 boreholes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP),terrain factors,and climate data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset,we propose a new mean annual ground air temperature(MAGAT)statistical model between meteorological parameters with subsurface temperatures to simulate permafrost distribution and variation of MAGT on the QTP over the past three decades(1981–2010).Validation of the model with MAGT data from 13 boreholes and permafrost maps of the QTP indicated that the MAGAT model is applicable to simulate the distribution and evolution of permafrost on the QTP.Simulation results show that the spatiotemporal MAGT of permafrost significantly increased by 0.37℃,or 0.25℃/10 yr,and the total area of permafrost decreased by 2.48×10^(5)km^(2) on the QTP over the past three decades.Regionally,the changes of permafrost in the southwestern QTP were greater than other regions of the QTP.展开更多
文摘Based on the CMIP5 simulation and numerical model, the permafrost thermal regime<span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> over Northern Hemisphere land during the early (2016-2035), middle (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) period of 21st century are projected, and its relationship with climate change is also analyzed. The results show that, relative to the reference period of 1986-2005, the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) over Northern Hemisphere shows an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend of the depth of zero annual amplitude (DZAA), and the most significant changes occur in Siberia, Tibetan Plateau, Canada arctic and Alaska, and the changes in MAGT and DZAA grow larger with time and emission, especially during the LP for RCP8.5, MAGT will increase by 4 </span></span></span><img src="Edit_55a9f4c6-dee0-46dd-b23f-879061d86c00.png" alt="" /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""></span> and DZAA decrease</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> by 1.5</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">m (the relative change exceeds 20%) in most regions. The changes of permafrost in the 21st century mainly depend on the changes of cold permafrost. The relationship between MAGT and air temperature as well as that between DZAA and air temperature suggests that the increase of MAGT and the decrease of DZAA are related to the increase of air temperature in winter, especially in January. However, the rate of change in MAGT and DZAA gradually declines, with the temperature increasing.</span></span></span>
基金The project is fully funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China Program(Grant Nos.42001052 and 41871052)Startup Research Funding of Northeast Forestry University for Chengdong Outstanding Youth Scholarship(YQ2020-10)+1 种基金Chengdong Leadership(LJ2020-01)the State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soils Engineering Open Fund Project(Grant No.SKLFSE202008).
文摘In boreal forest ecosystems, permafrost and forest types are mutually interdependent;permafrost degradation impacts forest ecosystem structure and functions. The Xing’an permafrost in Northeast China is on the southern margin of the Eastern Asia latitudinal permafrost body. Under a warming climate, permafrost undergoes rapid and extensive degradation. In this study, the frost-number (Fn) model based on air temperatures and ground surface temperatures was used to predict the distribution of the Xing’an permafrost, and, temporal and spatial changes in air and ground-surface temperatures from 1961 to 2019 are analyzed. The results show that Northeast China has experienced a rapid and substantial climate warming over the past 60 years. The rises in mean annual air and mean annual ground-surface temperatures were higher in permafrost zones than those in the seasonal frost zone. The frost numbers of air and ground-surface temperatures were calculated for determining the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost and for permafrost zonation. The southern limits of discontinuous permafrost, sporadic permafrost, and latitudinal permafrost moved northward significantly. According to the air-temperature frost-number criteria for permafrost zoning, compared with that in the 1960s, the extent of Xing’an permafrost in Northeast China had decreased by 40.6% by the 2010s. With an average rate of increase in mean annual air temperatures at 0.03 ℃ a^(−1), the extent of permafrost in Northeast China will decrease to 26.42 × 10^(4) by 2020, 14.69 × 10^(4) by 2040 and to 11.24 × 10^(4) km^(2) by 2050. According to the ground-surface temperature frost-number criteria, the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost was at the 0.463. From the 1960s to the 2010s, the extent of latitudinal permafrost declined significantly. Due to the nature of the ecosystem-protected Xing’an-Baikal permafrost, management and protection (e.g., more prudent and effective forest fire management and proper logging of forests) of the Xing’an permafrost eco-environment should be strengthened.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant[No.41330634]the STS Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant[No.HHS-TSS-STS-1502].
文摘Permafrost is one of the largest elements of the terrestrial cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change.Based on mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)data from 189 boreholes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP),terrain factors,and climate data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset,we propose a new mean annual ground air temperature(MAGAT)statistical model between meteorological parameters with subsurface temperatures to simulate permafrost distribution and variation of MAGT on the QTP over the past three decades(1981–2010).Validation of the model with MAGT data from 13 boreholes and permafrost maps of the QTP indicated that the MAGAT model is applicable to simulate the distribution and evolution of permafrost on the QTP.Simulation results show that the spatiotemporal MAGT of permafrost significantly increased by 0.37℃,or 0.25℃/10 yr,and the total area of permafrost decreased by 2.48×10^(5)km^(2) on the QTP over the past three decades.Regionally,the changes of permafrost in the southwestern QTP were greater than other regions of the QTP.