Reliability evaluation method and algorithm for electromechanical product

The reliability of electromechanical product is usually determined by the fault number and working time traditionally. The shortcoming of this method is that the product must be in service. To design and enhance the reliability of the electromechanical product, the reliability evaluation method must be feasible and correct. Reliability evaluation method and algorithm were proposed. The reliability of product can be calculated by the reliability of subsystems which can be gained by experiment or historical data. The reliability of the machining center was evaluated by the method and algorithm as one example. The calculation result shows that the solution accuracy of mean time between failures is 97.4% calculated by the method proposed in this article compared by the traditional method. The method and algorithm can be used to evaluate the reliability of electromechanical product before it is in service.

A Simple and Practical Algorithm for Calculating MTBF of Complex Systems

It is often difficult to calculate the failure rate of a complex system. For a complex system, therefore, the value of mean time between failures (MTBF) is also difficult to obtain with formula M=1/λ. The authors introduce a simple and practical algorithm, which can be easily used to obtain the value of MTBF of a complex system with M=∫∞0R(t)dt. The time axis is divided into lots of small intervals with step Δt, and lots of small trapezoids under the curve R(t) are obtained. By summing up all the areas of the trapezoids, a close approximation to MTBF of the system is obtained.

Bayesian Reliability Modeling and Assessment Solution for NC Machine Tools under Small-sample Data

Although Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） algorithms are accurate, many factors may cause instability when they are utilized in reliability analysis; such instability makes these algorithms unsuitable for widespread engineering applications. Thus, a reliability modeling and assessment solution aimed at small-sample data of numerical control（NC） machine tools is proposed on the basis of Bayes theories. An expert-judgment process of fusing multi-source prior information is developed to obtain the Weibull parameters＇ prior distributions and reduce the subjective bias of usual expert-judgment methods. The grid approximation method is applied to two-parameter Weibull distribution to derive the formulas for the parameters＇ posterior distributions and solve the calculation difficulty of high-dimensional integration. The method is then applied to the real data of a type of NC machine tool to implement a reliability assessment and obtain the mean time between failures（MTBF）. The relative error of the proposed method is 5.8020×10-4 compared with the MTBF obtained by the MCMC algorithm. This result indicates that the proposed method is as accurate as MCMC. The newly developed solution for reliability modeling and assessment of NC machine tools under small-sample data is easy, practical, and highly suitable for widespread application in the engineering field; in addition, the solution does not reduce accuracy.

Investigation of Influence of Winding Structure on Reliability of Permanent Magnet Machines

Winding is an important part of the electrical machine and plays a key role in reliability.In this paper,the reliability of multiphase winding structure in permanent magnet machines is evaluated based on the Markov model.The mean time to failure is used to compare the reliability of different windings structure.The mean time to failure of multiphase winding is derived in terms of the underlying parameters.The mean time to failure of winding is affected by the number of phases,the winding failure rate,the fault-tolerant mechanism success probability,and the state transition success probability.The influence of the phase number,winding distribution types,multi three-phase structure,and fault-tolerant mechanism success probability on the winding reliability is investigated.The results of reliability analysis lay the foundation for the reliability design of permanent magnet machines.

Reliability analysis of a two-dependent-unit parallel system with a standby unit

A parallel system with two active components and a cold standby unit is studied in this paper. The two simultaneously working components are dependent and the copula function is used to model their dependence. An explicit expression is obtained for the mean time to failure of the system in terms of the copula function and marginal lifetime distributions in two different cases. As an application,numerical calculations are presented corresponding to two different copula functions and marginal lifetime distributions.

Evaluation of Reliability and Availability Characteristics of a Repairable System with Active Parallel Units

In this paper, we study the reliability and availability characteristics of a repairable system consisting of two subsystems A and B in series. Subsystem A consists of two units A1 and A2 operating in active parallel while subsystem B is a single unit. Failure and repair times are assumed exponential. The explicit expressions of reliability and availability characteristics like mean time to system failure (MTSF), system availability, busy period and profit function are derived using Kolmogorov forward equations method. Various cases are analyzed graphically to investigate the impacts of system parameters on MTSF, availability, busy period and profit function.

天然气管道可靠性增长预测方法研究

为减少天然气管道投产前的设计和制造缺陷,提高使用寿命、运行可靠性和安全性、减少后期维修费用,通过统计模型结合试验数据实现对天然气管道可靠性增长水平的预测,提出天然气管道可靠性增长预测方法;分析常用可靠性增长模型并结合天然气管道可维修、小子样的特点,将Duane模型与AMSAA模型应用于天然气管道,结合点估计、趋势检验、拟合优度检验、区间估计和标准差,得出天然气管道可靠性增长模型,预测可靠性增长并进行实例验证。研究结果表明:Duane模型与AMSAA模型作为天然气管道可靠性增长试验具有可行性;其中AMSAA模型更具优势,得出天然气管道的瞬时无故障工作时间(MTBF)估计值可达到试验目标值,并预测MTBF达到2000 h时所需要的试验时间为317954611.3 h,未来第51次故障预测区间为[848.4609,939.6226],误差为1.25%,方法具有良好的适用性,可有效预测天然气管道可靠性增长。研究结果可为天然气管道设计改进提供指导。

基于不同统计模型对压力蒸汽灭菌器故障数据集的可靠性分析

目的:基于医院压力蒸汽灭菌器的故障数据,分析评估医疗机构中压力蒸汽灭菌器的可靠性。方法:利用威布尔分布(Weibull分布)、指数分布(Exponential分布)、对数-正态分布(Log-Normal分布)和q-威布尔分布(q-Weibull分布)4种统计模型对压力蒸汽灭菌器的故障数据进行分析,并使用图表工具展示不同分布统计模型在拟合数据时的性能。结果:4种统计模型对比显示,Log-Normal分布统计模型的修正赤池信息准则为564.4512,贝叶斯准则(568.7691)值最低,柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫(KS)统计量(0.0739)最小,P值最大(P>0.05),表明分布拟合效果最好,最适合用于分析压力蒸汽灭菌器故障数据集的模型。结论:通过使用不同统计模型对压力蒸汽灭菌器故障数据的可靠性分析,可以为临床工程师优化压力蒸汽灭菌器维护策略提供依据。

基于大数据分析的高校多媒体设备可靠性研究

随着教育事业发展,多媒体教学成为各高校最普遍、使用频率最高的教学模式。充分利用多媒体设备运行数据优化管理工作,延长设备使用寿命,降低设备维护成本,始终是教育技术部门关注的问题。通过对天津大学卫津路校区6年来多媒体设备报修数据进行统计分析,利用SPSS分析软件对2020和2021年的数据进行线性回归,分析总报修数量与年度使用时间和设备实际使用年限的线性相关性;基于平均故障间隔时间对近2年的硬件报修进行分设备类型统计,从概念引入到推导计算,均给出详细验证过程。结合对非硬件问题造成的软件报修的前5位问题进行详细分析,据此提出设备更新科学化,定期巡检规范化和培训方式多样化的对策建议。

基于改进FMEA的智能制造系统可靠性与风险评估

提出一种改进失效模式与影响分析(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis,FMEA)模型用于智能制造系统可靠性风险评估。首先基于文献法、专家访谈和鱼骨图分析法,从人、机、料、法、环(Human-Machine-Material-Method-Environment,4M1E)五个方面识别智能制造运行过程中的潜在失效模式;其次使用三角模糊数获取专家对失效模式的风险评估信息,风险因子权重由结构熵权法计算确定;最后运用模糊C均值(Fuzzy C-Means,FCM)算法划分失效模式的风险等级。此外,为了检验结果的有效性和可靠性,采用对比分析和蒙特卡洛仿真进行验证。

某型电子程控器可靠性仿真分析与优化设计

随着人们对电子产品可靠性的要求越来越高,利用失效物理方法识别产品潜在的薄弱点在产品设计中备受关注。基于失效物理理论,采用可靠性仿真分析方法,对电子程控器进行可靠性分析。通过建立电子程控器数字样机模型,开展相应的应力分析与故障预计,评估电子程控器可靠性指标平均首发故障时间(MTTFF),并根据仿真分析发现的薄弱环节进行优化设计。结果表明:可靠性仿真结果与理论计算结果相差较小,可以作为型号可靠性指标评估的依据,减少采用物理样机进行可靠性试验的周期和费用;优化改进后的电子程控器其可靠性得到较大提升。本文研究可为后续型号可靠性评估与设计提供理论参考。

微波等离子体质谱仪可靠性设计与验证研究

本文开展微波等离子质谱仪质量与可靠性提升研究。在工程管理方面,制定可靠性保证方案、转阶段可靠性评审、技术就绪度评价、故障归零、供方可靠性等,以保证正向研发设计;针对核心部件,采用可靠性预计和仿真分析,元器件筛选、环境适应性等验证设计满足要求,进而通过可靠性强化试验快速激发潜在薄弱环节以健壮可靠性;针对质谱仪整机,贯彻并核查可靠性设计准则,开展环境适应性、软件测评、安规测试等验证安全使用能力,选取定时截尾统计方案验证可靠性指标要求。运用可靠性设计与试验方法,研制出性能稳定、质量可靠的微波等离子质谱仪,促进新研微波等离子质谱仪高质量发展。

Reliability Analysis of Symmetrical Columns with Eccentric Loading from Lindley Distribution

This paper shows the reliability of the symmetrical columns with eccentric loading about one and two axes due to the maximum intensity stress and minimum intensity stress.In this paper,a new lifetime distribution is introduced which is obtained by compounding exponential and gamma distributions(named as Lindley distribution).Hazard rates,mean time to failure and estimation of single parameter Lindley distribution by maximum likelihood estimator have been discussed.It is observed that when the load and the area of the cross section increase,failure of the column also increases at two intensity stresses.It is observed from the results that reliability decreases when scale parameter increases.

考虑BIT特性的装备可靠性与测试性协同优化

为优化平衡现代装备的可靠性与测试性,提出一种考虑机内测试(BIT,Built In Test)特性的装备可靠性与测试性协同优化方法。建立了BIT特性模型、装备的可靠性模型和测试性模型;建立了以BIT数量为决策变量、装备可靠性指标最低要求为约束条件、测试性指标为优化目标的装备测试性优化模型和以BIT数量为决策变量、装备可靠性指标最低要求与测试性指标最低要求为约束条件、可靠性指标与测试性指标加权求和结果为优化目标的装备可靠性与测试性协同优化模型;通过求解模型,计算得出最佳的BIT数量、装备的可靠性指标和测试性指标。以雷达为例,给出了装备可靠性与测试性协同优化的仿真实验结果:设置BIT数量为48个时,装备可靠度为0.821,故障诊断率为88.2%,为不同装备确定合理BIT数量以达到可靠性与测试性优化平衡的目的提供了参考。

民用建筑供配电系统可靠性研究

基于可靠性工程理论,建立民用建筑典型低压配电系统可靠性评估模型,计算并比较分析各模型可靠度,对证GB 51348-2019 《民用建筑电气设计标准》中新增做法的合理性。以JGJ 284-2012《金融建筑电气设计规范》中相关可靠度规范要求,验证该模型研究方法和相关数据的有效性。

煤炭元素分析仪中红外检测器的可靠性分析

阐述了煤炭元素分析仪中红外检测器的工作原理,分析了检测器的失效原因,建立了检测器的可靠性模型,针对失效原因提出优化措施。依据可靠性模型预估了优化后的红外检测器电路理论上失效率为2922.79 Fit,平均故障间隔时间约为3.42×10^(5) h。

利用性能参数回归分析的航空发动机MTBF预计

航空发动机可靠性指标平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)的预计方法有多种,在发动机立项阶段数据缺乏的情况下建议优先选用统计回归法进行发动机可靠性指标MTBF的预测。为了在发动机预先研究阶段能够预计发动机的可靠性水平,利用系数修正的方法对国外的预计回归公式进行修正,可以得到1个新的回归预计公式,但该公式存在飞机参数不明确时无法进行应用的缺点,因此,基于仅利用发动机性能参数进行多元线性统计回归分析得到了新的预计公式,结果表明:新的预计发动机MTBF的回归公式可以在配装飞机不明确的情况下,仅利用发动机本身的性能参数即可大概估算出发动机的MTBF水平,预计效率高,可以为发动机立项论证时可靠性指标MTBF提供参考依据。综合来看,该方法可以实现立项阶段根据飞机参数、发动机性能参数进行发动机可靠性指标MTBF的快速预计,有一定的参考价值。

一种安全防范产品的可靠性评估测试方法

为了解决安全防范产品可靠性评估测试过程中平均无间隔故障时间(MTBF)指标要求高、试验周期和试验能力有限的问题,通过行业标准规定、历史故障数据分析、失效机理分析等确定被测试产品的主要失效机理和失效部位和对应的环境载荷,针对性地设计测试方案,在相同试验能力下增加同时测试样品数,达到减小试验周期的目的。某型执法记录仪管理平台的可靠性评估测试结果显示,该方法与传统方法测试数据接近,测试结论一致,具有一定的应用价值。

黑龙江测震台站综合系统故障分析

为提升黑龙江测震台网运行的连续率及可靠度,汇集2018—2021年31个观测站的历史故障数据,通过计算R(t)、MTBF等参数对测震系统及其子系统的故障进行整理分析,得到各子系统平均单次维修周期、故障时长占比、综合系统平均故障间隔时间,通信、供电、测震、综合系统的可靠度依次为0.78、0.91、0.82、0.51。分析认为,黑龙江测震系统可靠度较低,故障频繁,外部通信故障时长、观测站测震系统维修周期均较长,这是影响测震台网运行连续率的主要因素;从时间上来看,各系统冬季故障较少,夏季较频繁。

LED显示屏可靠性的预计及预防措施

随着发光二极管(Light Emitting Diode,LED)显示屏技术的不断发展,其应用领域越来越广泛,人们对其性能的要求越来越高,其应用环境也越来越苛刻。LED显示屏内部构造复杂多变,有着大量的各种类型的元器件及线缆。而在这些构成元素中,哪些器件是影响LED显示屏可靠性的主要因素、我们如何预测LED显示屏的可靠性以及如何提高LED显示屏的可靠性将是一个非常重要的课题,也是目前LED显示屏行业研究的热门问题。本文根据国军标的要求,从产品的灯板、开关电源、箱体结构和控制卡等几个模块给出LED显示屏进行平均无故障时间(Mean Time Between Failures,MTBF)预计性技术评估,从而在热设计、防护和材料设计等几个方面给出相关的建议。