Unstable evolution of railway slope under the rainfall-vibration joint action

Understanding the unstable evolution of railway slopes is the premise for preventing slope failure and ensuring the safe operation of trains.However,as two major factors affecting the stability of railway slopes,few scholars have explored the unstable evolution of railway slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration.Based on the model test of sandy soil slope,the unstable evolution process of slope under locomotive vibration,rainfall,and rainfall-vibration joint action conditions was simulated in this paper.By comparing and analyzing the variation trends of soil pressure and water content of slope under these conditions,the change laws of pore pressure under the influence of vibration and rainfall were explored.The main control factors affecting the stability of slope structure under the joint action conditions were further defined.Combined with the slope failure phenomena under these three conditions,the causes of slope instability resulting from each leading factor were clarified.Finally,according to the above conclusions,the unstable evolution of the slope under the rainfall-vibration joint action was determined.The test results show that the unstable evolution process of sandy soil slope,under the rainfall-vibration joint action,can be divided into:rainfall erosion cracking,vibration promotion penetrating,and slope instability sliding three stages.In the process of slope unstable evolution,rainfall and vibration play the roles of inducing and promoting slide respectively.In addition,the deep cracks,which are the premise for the formation of the sliding surface,and the violent irregular fluctuation of soil pressure,which reflects the near penetration of the sliding surface,constitute the instability characteristics of the railway slope together.This paper reveals the unstable evolution of sandy soil slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration,hoping to provide the theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention technology of railway slopes.

Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Hydrological Responses to the Projected Climate Change for Upper Baro Basin, Ethiopia

This paper presents the results of Rainfall-Runoff modeling and simulation of hydrological responses under changing climate using HEC-HMS model. The basin spatial data was processed by HEC-GeoHMS and imported to HEC-HMS. The calibration and validation of the HEC-HMS model was done using the observed hydrometeorological data (1989-2018) and HEC-GeoHMS output data. The goodness-of-fit of the model was measured using three performance indices: Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) = 0.8, Coefficient of Determination (R2) = 0.8, and Percent Difference (D) = 0.03, with values showing very good performance of the model. Finally, the optimized HEC-HMS model has been applied to simulate the hydrological responses of Upper Baro Basin to the projected climate change for mid-term (2040s) and long-term (2090s) A1B emission scenarios. The simulation results have shown a mean annual percent decrease of 3.6 and an increase of 8.1 for Baro River flow in the 2040s and 2090s scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period (2000s). A pronounced flow variation is rather observed on a seasonal basis, reaching a reduction of 50% in spring and an increase of 50% in autumn for both mid-term and long-term scenarios with respect to the base period. Generally, the rainfall-runoff model is developed to solve, in a complementary way, the two main problems in water resources management: the lack of gauged sites and future hydrological response to climate change data of the basin and the region in general. The study results imply that seasonal and time variation in the hydrologic cycle would most likely cause hydrologic extremes. And hence, the developed model and output data are of paramount importance for adaptive strategies and sustainable water resources development in the basin.

Experimental study on instability mechanism and critical intensity of rainfall of high-steep rock slopes under unsaturated conditions

Two critical factors,namely intense precipitation and intricate excavation,can trigger rock mass disasters in mining operations.In this study,an indoor rainfall system was developed to precisely regulate the flow and intensity of precipitation.A large-scale model experiment was conducted on a self-designed physical simulation experiment platform to investigate the failure and instability of high-steep rock slopes under unsaturated conditions.The real-time reproduction of the progressive failure process in high-steep rock slopes enabled the determination of the critical rainfall intensity and revealed the mechanism underlying slope instability.Experiment results indicated that rainfall may be the primary factor contributing to rock mass instability,while continuous pillar mining exacerbates the extent of rock mass failure.The critical failure stage of high-steep rock slopes occurs at a rainfall intensity of 40 mm/h,whereas a rainfall exceeding 50 mm can induce critical instability and precipitation reaching up to 60 mm will result in slope failure.The improved region growing segmentation method(IRGSM)was subsequently employed for image recognition of rock mass deformation in underground mines.Herein an error comparison with the simple linear iterative cluster(SLIC)superpixel method and the original region growing segmentation method(ORGSM)showed that the average identification error in the X and Y directions by the method was reduced significantly(1.82%and 1.80%in IRGSM;4.70%and 6.26%in SLIC;9.45%and 12.40%in ORGSM).Ultimately,the relationship between rainfall intensity and failure probability was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method.Moreover,the stability assessment criteria of rock slope under unsaturated condition were quantitatively and accurately evaluated.

Stability analysis of unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration using coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model

Generally, most soil slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration, a process that involves interactions between the liquid phase, gas phase,and solid skeleton in an unsaturated soil slope. In this study, a loosely coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model, linking two numerical codes,TOUGH2/EOS3, which is used for water-air two-phase flow analysis, and FLAC^(3D), which is used for mechanical analysis, was established. The model was validated through a documented water drainage experiment over a sandy column and a comparison of the results with measured data and simulated results from other researchers. The proposed model was used to investigate the features of water-air two-phase flow and stress fields in an unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration. The slope stability analysis was then performed based on the simulated water-air two-phase seepage and stress fields on a given slip surface. The results show that the safety factor for the given slip surface decreases first, then increases, and later decreases until the rainfall stops. Subsequently, a sudden rise occurs. After that, the safety factor decreases continually and reaches its lowest value, and then increases slowly to a steady value. The lowest value does not occur when the rainfall stops, indicating a delayed effect of the safety factor. The variations of the safety factor for the given slip surface are therefore caused by a combination of pore-air pressure, matric suction, normal stress, and net normal stress.

Numerical Simulations of Intense Meiyu Rainfall in 1991 over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Valleys by a Regional Climate Model with p-σ Incorporated Coordinate System

Based on the primitive equation model with p- σ incorporated coordinate system originally developed by Qian et al., a one-way nested fine mesh limited area model is developed. This model is nested with ECMWF T42 data to simulate the extra-intensive rainfall event occurring in the Changjiang and Huaihe River valleys in summer of 1991. The results show that the model has certain capacity to fairly reproduce the regional distribution and the movement of the main rainfall belts. Therefore it can be used as a regional climate model to simulate and predict the short-range regional climate changes.

Coupled hydro-mechanical analysis of slope under rainfall using modified elasto-plastic model for unsaturated soils

Two modifications for the basic Barcelona model(BBM) are present. One is the replacement of the net stress by the average skeleton stress in unsaturated soil modeling, and the other is the adoption of an expression for the load-collapse(LC) yield surface that can match flexibly the normal compression lines at different suctions. The predictions of the modified BBM for the controlled-suction triaxial test on the unsaturated compacted clay are presented and compared with the experimental results. A good agreement between the predicted and experimental results demonstrates the reasonability of the modified BBM. On this basis, the coupled processes of groundwater flow and soil deformation in a homogeneous soil slope under a long heavy rainfall are simulated with the proposed elasto-plastic model. The numerical results reveal that the failure of a slope under rainfall infiltration is due to both the reduction of soil suction and the significant rise in groundwater table. The evolution of the displacements is greatly related to the change of suction. The maximum collapse deformation happens near the surface of slope where infiltrated rainwater can quickly reach. The results may provide a helpful reference for hazard assessment and control of rainfall-induced landslides.

Notes of Numerical Simulation of Summer Rainfall in China with a Regional Climate Model REMO

Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by ＂perfect＂ boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences： heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies.

Effectiveness of Fiber Bragg Grating monitoring in the centrifugal model test of soil slope under rainfall conditions

Centrifugal model testsare playing an increasingly importantrolein investigating slope characteristics under rainfall conditions. However, conventional electronic transducers usually fail during centrifugal model tests because of the impacts of limitedtest space, high centrifugal force, and presence of water, with the result that limited valid data is obtained. In this study, Fiber Bragg Grating(FBG) sensing technology is employed in the design and development of displacement gauge, an anchor force gauge and an anti-slide pile moment gauge for use on centrifugal model slopes with and without a retaining structure. The two model slopes were installed and monitored at a centrifugal acceleration of 100 g. The test results show that the sensors developed succeed in capturing the deformation and retaining structure mechanical response of the model slopes during and after rainfall. The deformation curvefor the slope without retaining structure shows a steepresponse that turns gradualfor the slope with retaining structure. Importantly, for the slope with the retaining structure, results suggest that more attention be paid to increase of anchor force and antislide pile moment during rainfall. This study verifies the effectiveness of FBG sensing technology in centrifuge research and presents a new and innovative method for slope model testing under rainfall conditions.

Effects of Doubled Carbon Dioxide on Rainfall Responses to Large-Scale Forcing:A Two-Dimensional Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

ABSTRACT Rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experiments simulated pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China around the summer solstice, whereas the other pair of experiments simulated tropical rainfall around the winter solstice. The analysis of the time and model domain mean heat budget revealed that the enhanced local atmospheric warming was associated with doubled carbon dioxide through the weakened infrared radiative cooling during the summer solstice. The weakened mean pre-summer rainfall corresponded to the weakened mean infrared radiative cooling. Doubled carbon dioxide increased the mean tropical atmospheric warming via the enhanced mean latent heat in correspondence with the strengthened mean infrared radiative cooling during the winter solstice. The enhanced mean tropical rainfall was associated with the increased mean latent heat.

Stability analysis of an unsaturated soil slope considering rainfall infiltration based on the Green-Ampt model

Based on the principle of saturated infiltration and the Green-Ampt model,an unsaturated infiltration model for a soil slope surface was established for either constant moisture content,or depth-varying moisture content and the slope.Infiltration parameters in the partially saturated slope were revealed under sustained rainfall.Through analysis of the variation of initial moisture content in the slope,the ponding time,infiltration depth,and infiltration rate were deduced for an unsaturated soil slope subject to rainfall infiltration.There is no ponded water on the surface of the slope under sustained low-intensity rainfall.The results show that the infiltration parameters of an unsaturated slope are influenced by the initial moisture content and the wetting front saturation,the soil cohesion and rainfall intensity under sustained rainfall.More short-term slope failures can occur with the decrease of cohesion of the soil of the slope.The ponding time and infiltration depth differ considering constant or different initial moisture content respectively in the soil slope.Then,best-fit curves of the infiltration rate,ponding time,and infiltration depth to the wetting front saturation were obtained with constant or different initial moisture contents.And the slope failure time is roughly uniform when subject to a rainfall intensity I>5 mm/h.

Boreal Winter Rainfall Anomaly over the Tropical Indo-Pacific and Its Effect on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.

A Modeling Study of Surface Rainfall Processes Associated with a Torrential Rainfall Event over Hubei,China,during July 2007

The surface rainfall processes associated with the torrential rainfall event over Hubei,China,during July 2007 were investigated using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model.The model integrated the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP）/Global Data Assimilation System（GDAS） for 5 days.The time and model domain mean surface rain rate was used to identify the onset,mature,and decay periods of rainfall.During the onset period,the descending motion data imposed in the lower troposphere led to a large contribution of stratiform rainfall to the model domain mean surface rainfall.The local atmospheric drying and transport of rain from convective regions mainly contributes to the stratiform rainfall.During the mature periods,the ascending motion data integrated into the model was so strong that water vapor convergence was the dominant process for both convective and stratiform rainfall.Both convective and stratiform rainfalls made important contributions to the model domain mean surface rainfall.During the decay period,descending motion data input into the model prevailed,making stratiform rainfall dominant.Stratiform rainfall was mainly caused by the water vapor convergence over raining stratiform regions.

Centrifugal model test on a riverine landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir induced by rainfall and water level fluctuation

Frequent soil landslide events are recorded in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China,making it necessary to investigate the failure mode of such riverside landslides.Geotechnical centrifugal test is considered to be the most realistic laboratory model,which can reconstruct the required geo-stress.In this study,the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorgers Reservoir area is selected for a scaled centrifugal model experiment,and a water pump system is employed to retain the rainfall condition.Using the techniques of digital photography and pore water pressure transducers,water level fluctuation is controlled,and multi-physical data are thus obtained,including the pore water pressure,earth pressure,surface displacement and deep displacement.The analysis results indicate that:Three stages were set in the test(waterflooding stage,rainfall stage and drainage stage).Seven transverse cracks with wide of 1–5 mm appeared during the model test,of which 3 cracks at the toe landslide were caused by reservoir water fluctuation,and the cracks at the middle and rear part were caused by rainfall.During rainfall process,the maximum displacement of landslide model reaches 3 cm.And the maximum deformation of the model exceeds 12 cm at the drainage stage.The failure process of the slope model can be divided into four stages:microcracks appearance and propagation stage,thrust-type failure stage,retrogressive failure stage,and holistic failure stage.When the thrust-type zone caused by rainfall was connected or even overlapped with the retrogressive failure zone caused by the drainage,the landslide would start,which displayed a typical composite failure pattern.The failure mode and deformation mechanism under the coupling actions of water level fluctuation and rainfall are revealed in the model test,which could appropriately guide for the analysis and evaluation of riverside landslides.

Statistical Data Mining with Slime Mould Optimization for Intelligent Rainfall Classification

Statistics are most crucial than ever due to the accessibility of huge counts of data from several domains such as finance,medicine,science,engineering,and so on.Statistical data mining(SDM)is an interdisciplinary domain that examines huge existing databases to discover patterns and connections from the data.It varies in classical statistics on the size of datasets and on the detail that the data could not primarily be gathered based on some experimental strategy but conversely for other resolves.Thus,this paper introduces an effective statistical Data Mining for Intelligent Rainfall Prediction using Slime Mould Optimization with Deep Learning(SDMIRPSMODL)model.In the presented SDMIRP-SMODL model,the feature subset selection process is performed by the SMO algorithm,which in turn minimizes the computation complexity.For rainfall prediction.Convolution neural network with long short-term memory(CNN-LSTM)technique is exploited.At last,this study involves the pelican optimization algorithm(POA)as a hyperparameter optimizer.The experimental evaluation of the SDMIRP-SMODL approach is tested utilizing a rainfall dataset comprising 23682 samples in the negative class and 1865 samples in the positive class.The comparative outcomes reported the supremacy of the SDMIRP-SMODL model compared to existing techniques.

Modeling the effects of rainfall on vehicular traffic

Traffic management and drainage system are two vital issues for any metropolitan city. Like other big cities, Karachi is also facing problems due to lack of traffic management and poor drainage system. The main objective of the study is to model the interdisciplinary issues of storm water and its effect on the traffic of Karachi. The specific objectives are （1） to calibrate and validate urban hydraulic and traffic micro-simulation models and （2） to model storm water and traffic for future conditions. This study is carried out on a 3-km section of arterial road. In this study, loose coupling of two models is done. For urban drainage, PCSWMM, and for traffic, VISSIM is used. Both models are calibrated for an existing situation on rainfall event of August 3, 2013, and then used for prediction of future scenario based on 50-year and 100-year return periods of rainfall. Sensitivity analysis of VISSIM is performed. Locations and lengths of road sections, where ponding happens for the future scenario, are identified using PCSWMM. These lengths axe then marked in VISSIM as low-speed areas, and delays are measured. Analysis of PCSWMM shows that for 100-year return period, there is maximum 0.318 ha-m （3180 cubic meters） water stored in the depressions of the road after 10 h of rainfall. Analysis of VISSIM shows that for a 100-year return period, there is a maximum delay of 35 min on NIPA to Hasan Square section of University Road.

A time fractional model to represent rainfall process

This paper deals with a stochastic representation of the rainfall process. The analysis of a rainfall time series shows that cumulative representation of a rainfall time series can be modeled as a non-Gaussian random walk with a log-normal jump distribution and a time-waiting distribution following a tempered a-stable probability law. Based on the random walk model, a fractional Fokker-Planck equation （FFPE） with tempered a-stable waiting times was obtained. Through the comparison of observed data and simulated results from the random walk model and FFPE model with tempered a-stable waiting times, it can be concluded that the behavior of the rainfall process is globally reproduced, and the FFPE model with tempered a-stable waiting times is more efficient in reproducing the observed behavior.

VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS

The number of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 2009 is significantly less than the average (27.4). However, the number of landfall TC over China's Mainland and its associated rainfall is more than the average. This paper focuses on the performance of numerical weather prediction (NWP) of landfall TC precipitation over China in 2009. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models are compared. Although the schemes of physical processes, the data assimilation system and the dynamic frame are entirely different for the two models, the results of forecast verification are similar to each other for TC rainfall and track except for TC Goni. In this paper, a day with daily rainfall amount greater than 50 mm was selected as a storm rain day when there was a TC affecting the mainland. There are 32 storm rain days related to the landing of typhoons and tropical depressions. The rainfall forecast verification methods of National Meteorological Centre (NMC) of CMA are selected to verify the models' rainfall forecast. Observational precipitation analyses related to TCs in 2009 indicate a U-shape spatial distribution in China. It is found that the rain belt forecasted by the two models within 60 hours shows good agreement with observations, both in the location and the maximum rainfall center. Beyond 3 days, the forecasted rainfall belt shifts northward on average, and the rainfall amount of the model forecasts becomes under-predicted. The rainfall intensity of CMA model forecast is more reasonable than that of JMA model. For heavy rain, the JMA model made more missing forecasts. The TC rainfall is verified in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Hainan where rainfall amount related to TCs is relatively larger than in other regions. The results indicate that the model forecast for Guangdong and Guangxi is more skillful than that for Hainan. The rainfall forecast for Hainan remains difficult for the models because of insufficient observation data and special tropical ocean climate.

The Impacts of Topography on Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Distribution over Rwanda Based on WRF Model

The impact of topography on heavy rainfall during two rain seasons was investigated in order to explain their mechanisms on rainfall distribution over Rwanda. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to study two historical cases of heavy rainfall which took place over Rwanda during two rain seasons, March to May (MAM) and September to December (SOND), from April 7 to 9, 2012 (for MAM) and from October 29 to 31, 2012 (during SOND). The control experiment was done with actual topography, whereas sensitivity experiment was carried out with topography reduced by half. Results show that rainfall distribution over Rwanda significantly changes when topography is reduced. The reduction in topography leads to a decrease in rainfall amounts in both MAM and SOND seasons, with varying magnitudes. This reveals the importance of orography in determining rainfall amounts and distribution over the region. The accumulated rainfall amount from WRF underestimate or overestimate rain gauge stations data by region and by season, but there is good agreement especially in altitude below 1490 m and above 1554 m during April and October respectively. The results may motivate modelling carters to further improve parameterization schemes in the mountainous regions.

Full 2D Hydrodynamic Modelling of Rainfall-induced Flash Floods

Mountain catchments are prone to flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Enhanced understanding of the generation and evolution processes of flash floods is essential for effective flood risk management. However, traditional distributed hydrological models based on kinematic and diffusion wave approximations ignore certain physical mechanisms of flash floods and thus bear excessive uncertainty. Here a hydrodynamic model is presented for flash floods based on the full two-dimensional shallow water equations incorporating rainfall and infiltration. Laboratory experiments of overland flows were modelled to illustrate the capability of the model. Then the model was applied to resolve two observed flash floods of distinct magnitudes in the Lengkou catchment in Shanxi Province, China. The present model is shown to be able to reproduce the flood flows fairly well compared to the observed data. The spatial distribution of rainfall is shown to be crucial for the modelling of flash floods. Sensitivity analyses of the model parameters reveal that the stage and discharge hydrographs are more sensitive to the Manning roughness and initial water content in the catchment than to the Green-Ampt head. Most notably, as the flash flood augments due to heavier rainfall, the modelling results agree with observed data better, which clearly characterizes the paramount role of rainfall in dictating the floods. From practical perspectives, the proposed model is more appropriate for modelling large flash floods.

Comparison of semivariogram models for kriging monthly rainfall in eastern China

An exploratory spatial data analysis method(ESDA) was designed Apr.28,2002 for kriging monthly rainfall.Samples were monthly rainfall observed at 61 weather stations in eastern China over the period 1961-1998.Comparison of five semivariogram models(Spherical,Exponential,Linear,Gaussian and Rational Quadratic)indicated that kriging fulfills the objective of finding better ways to estimate interpolation weights and can provide error information for monthly rainfall interpolation.ESDA yielded the three most common forms of experimental semivariogram for monthly rainfall in the erea.All five models were appropriate for monthly rainflaa interpolation but under different circumstances.Spherical,Exponential and Linear models perform as smoothing interpolator of the data,whereas Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models serve as an exact interpolator.Spherical,Exponential and Linear models tend to underestimate the values,On the contrayr,Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models tend to overestimate the values.On the contrary,Gaussian and Rational Quadratic models tend to overestimate the values,Since the suitable model for a specific month usually is not unique and each model does not show any bias toward one or more specific months,an ESDA is recommended for a better interpolation result.