郑州“7·20”地铁水淹事件STAMP致因分析

为探讨河南郑州“7·20”地铁5号线伤亡事件致因,综合运用系统理论事件模型与过程(STAMP)模型,分析5号线伤亡事件安全控制结构,据此逐级辨识事件致因;基于复杂网络理论将事件致因及其联系抽象为网络的节点和边,建立地铁水灾事件网络;计算聚类系数、度数等拓扑参数定量分析事件致因性质,确定关键致因。结果表明:地方党委政府面对汛情的应对部署不紧不实,缺少有效的组织动员和有关部门对工程建设存在失管失察是事件的深层根源;建设单位、设计单位等五方主体单位及运维单位的主体责任失职是事件的主观关键致因;应从政府及有关部门、五方主体单位和运维单位方面采取多元协同的风险防控措施。

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

基于STAMP-偏序集的非煤矿山爆炸事故系统风险评估模型

通过提出一种基于STAMP偏序集的系统性风险评估模型,揭示非煤矿山爆炸事故的发生机理,并为爆炸事故的有效预防和控制提供参考。首先,利用STAMP模型构建了非煤矿山爆炸事故的系统层次结构,确定了事件集及其层次关系,并从系统设计和安全控制的角度分析了事故的致因因素;然后,采用排序质心法计算了事件集的初始概率,并将概率矩阵作为偏序集评价模型的输入,得到了因素间的聚类关系和节点脆弱性;最后,通过一个实例验证了该模型的有效性和可行性。该模型能够图形化地描述各致因因素间的聚类关系、节点重要度以及系统各组件间的关系,从而能够有效识别系统的脆弱性节点,并为爆炸事故预防提供科学合理的控制措施。

基于STAMP与模型检验的全自动无人驾驶复杂运营场景安全验证方法

与传统列控系统相比,全自动无人驾驶运营场景更加复杂多变,潜在的危险及致因具有更强的隐蔽性和复杂性,给运营安全带来了新的挑战。针对以上问题,提出一种STAMP(Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process)与模型检验相结合的复杂运营场景安全验证方法。首先,基于STAMP理论构建运营场景分层控制结构模型,辨识潜在的不安全控制行为、分析危险致因和安全约束;其次,定义分层控制结构模型与安全状态机模型间的基本转换规则,基于分层控制结构模型、安全约束和转换规则,构建运营场景安全状态机模型;最后,针对提取的安全约束,利用数据流图建立安全属性验证模型,结合模型检验技术,对运营场景安全状态机模型进行形式化验证。以全自动无人驾驶运营场景中列车自动进站停车为例,对方法进行验证分析。结果表明,当STAMP理论提取的安全约束通过了场景安全状态机模型的验证时,表示在该场景中对应的不安全控制行为没有发生且不导致相应危险。该方法结合系统安全分析与形式化建模验证的优势,降低了运营场景建模的难度,构建的运营场景形式化模型满足系统安全约束,可以作为全自动无人驾驶系统安全设计和安全改进的重要基础。

基STAMP的实验室安全管理体系研究

实验室是高校实践教学及科学科研的重要阵地,然而近些年高校实验室安全事故时有发生,已经严重威胁到高校师生生命安全及学校财产安全,高校实验室安全管理工作越来越受到重视。本文结合高校实际情况,利用STAMP理论模型对高校实验室安全管理体系进行建模,对模型进行研究和分析,构建起一套普遍适用的高校实验室安全管理体系,为高校实验室安全管理体系建设提供参考。

基于StaMPS-PS时序InSAR对流层延迟改正方法评估

时序分析是合成孔径雷达干涉测量(InSAR)的一项关键技术,它被广泛应用于监测广阔地区的地表缓慢形变。这种方法能够提供大范围、大面积的形变监测。其中,StaMPS PS方法凭借适用范围广、开源等优点,受到众多学者的使用。但在时序InSAR中,对流层延迟相位会导致形变监测精度的降低,因此,以合肥市为研究区域,分析了经验模型线性改正、GACOS(generic atmospheric correction online service for InSAR)改正和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)最新发布的ERA5数据集改正,并对比这3种方法在时序InSAR反演形变速率中的改正效果。通过计算得到研究区的标准差,进行比较分析和验证。其中线性改正、ERA5和GACOS改正后的标准差分别降低了21.71%、16.14%、10.38%。对于合肥区域,这3种方法均可减弱对流层延迟的影响,且精度都有所提高,其中线性改正效果最好,适用性更高,ERA5和GACOS受天气以及地面监测点密度等影响,在该区域改正效果较差。

Analysis and optimization of stamping and forming process of bearing outer ring

To address the common issues of wrinkling,tearing,and uneven wall thickness in the actual sheet metal stamp-ing process of the outer ring of needle roller bearings,this study analyzes critical technical indicators such asforming limits,thickness distribution,and principal strains in the forming process in detail.Three-dimensionalmodels of the concave and convex dies were constructed.The effects of different process parameters,includingstamping speed,edge pressure,sheet metal thickness,and friction coefficient,on the quality of the forming partswere investigated by varying these parameters.Subsequently,the orthogonal experimental method was used todetermine an optimal experimental group from multiple sets of experiments.It was found that under the processparameters of a stamping speed of 3000 mm/s,edge pressure of 2000 N,sheet metal thickness of 0.9 mm,andfriction coefficient of 0.125,the forming quality of the outer ring of the bearing is ideal.

A STAMP-Game model for accident analysis in oil and gas industry

Accidents in engineered systems are usually generated by complex socio-technical factors.It is beneficial to investigate the increasing complexity and coupling of these factors from the perspective of system safety.Based on system and control theories,System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes(STAMP)is a widely recognized approach for accident analysis.In this paper,we propose a STAMP-Game model to analyze accidents in oil and gas storage and transportation systems.Stakeholders in accident analysis by STAMP can be regarded as players of a game.Game theory can,thus,be adopted in accident analysis to depict the competition and cooperation between stakeholders.Subsequently,we established a game model to study the strategies of both supervisory and supervised entities.The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed game model allows for identifying the effectiveness deficiency of the supervisory entity,and the safety and protection altitudes of the supervised entity.The STAMP-Game model can generate quantitative parameters for supporting the behavior and strategy selections of the supervisory and supervised entities.The quantitative data obtained can be used to guide the safety improvement,to reduce the costs of safety regulation violation and accident risk.

The Use of Hand Stamps in the Manuscript Maps Drawn by East Asian Countries in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries

It was generally accepted that manuscript maps,as distinct from printed maps,exhibited no signs of printing and were entirely hand-drawn.Western scholars Christopher Terrell and Tony Campbell were the first to break this stereotype in 1987,followed by Catherine Delano-Smith and Chet Van Duzer who discovered a few Renaissance maps and two Qing dynasty maps that showed use of hand stamps.Inspired by these findings,this paper explores the stamped map signs in ten Chinese maps,three Japanese maps,and three Korean maps.By analyzing each map and each type of stamp,this paper provides more examples of this research,broadens the research horizons and geographical area,and demonstrates that use of stamps in manuscript maps was invented independently among people of different regions and civilizations as a result of human nature.

基于IRML-STAMP的舰船加油系统风险因素识别方法

为研究舰船加油系统遭受外界干扰后的系统功能状态变化情况和系统自身恢复能力,基于IRML-STAMP方法对舰船加油系统风险因素进行识别,定量评估舰船加油系统动态弹性,并与基于传统STAMP方法的评估结果进行比较。结果表明:利用基于IRML-STAMP的舰船加油系统风险因素识别方法可以精确找出失效后导致舰船加油系统动态弹性损失最多的STAMP模型的关键节点;以舰船加油系统加油作业设定故障场景为例,压力表等仪表是该系统的关键节点,压力表等仪表故障中断后,系统动态弹性大幅下降0.161;当故障传播路径中不包含关键节点时,系统动态弹性最大,当干扰出现在关键节点时,系统动态弹性最小,差值为0.101;与传统STAMP方法相比,IRML-STAMP方法评估结果可以准确定位系统风险,提高系统动态弹性。该研究结果可以帮助提高舰船加油系统的抗干扰性,对现场舰船加油系统的风险因素识别具有指导意义。

基于板料冲压成形仿真系统FASTAMP-NX10与冲压模具智能设计系统SIS-V2.0的拉伸模设计

以电子产品金属外壳为实例,具体分析了其成形特点,找出某电子产品金属外壳冲压件成形的共性。介绍了电子产品金属外壳的成形特点和外壳件冲压模具设计的基本原则,其中包括了冲压方向、工艺补充面等设计的常用手法。直接用工业三维软件NX10.0构造出外壳冲压模具的三维实体模型,完成了电子产品金属外壳的模具设计,更真实的反映了模具零件之间的装配关系,减少了实际模具设计带来的一些问题和制造时间。同时,模具各部分的干涉检查能够方便地做到,从而提高了电子产品面壳模具结构的设计效率和质量,缩短了模具的设计和制造时间,这对制造业尤其是模具的制造来说尤为重要。

基于StaMPS方法的大坝形变监测可行性研究

利用时序InSAR技术的优势,以新疆WLL水库大坝为研究对象,使用31幅Sentinel-1A影像,采用StaMPS方法对其进行形变监测,得到大坝及周边区域的形变结果,并从内、外符合精度两个方面进行精度验证。结果表明,研究区域PS点平均形变速率标准差区间为0.3~3.1mm/a;StaMPS与SBAS形变速率中误差为±5.7mm;与大坝二等水准监测成果比较,垂直形变速率中误差为±5.0mm,垂直累积形变量中误差为±10.2mm。从而证明StaMPS方法在大坝形变监测应用中的可行性。

Forming defects in aluminum alloy hot stamping of side-door impact beam

The forming defects, including thinning, rupture, wrinkling and springback, usually arising in producing a side-door impact beam, were investigated by trial and numerical simulation. A temperature-related constitutive model specific to the temperature range from 350 °C to 500 °C was established and used for the numerical simulation. The trial and numerical simulation were conducted to clarify the quantitative characteristics of forming defects and to analyze the effects of process parameters on the forming defects. Results show that the rupture situation is ameliorated and the springback is eliminated in the aluminum alloy hot stamping. The wrinkling severity decreases with increasing blank holder force (BHF), but the BHF greater than 15 kN causes the rupture at the deepest drawing position of workpiece. The forming defects are avoided with lubricant in the feasible ranges of process parameters: the BHF of 3 to 5 kN and the stamping speed of 50 to 200 mm/s.

Formability of aluminum-silicon coated boron steel in hot stamping process

Flow behavior of the Al-Si coated boron steel was investigated with Gleeble-3500,in comparison with the uncoated one.Effect of deformation conditions on the coating integrity was characterized by optical microscopy.Facture surfaces of the coated steels were inspected under SEM.Experimental results indicate that the ultimate tensile strength and ductility of the Al-Si coated boron steel are lower than those of the uncoated steel under test conditions.Extensive cracks occur in the coating after tensile tests;the width and density of cracks are sensitive to the deformation temperatures and strain rates.The bare substrate exposed between the separate coating segments is oxidized.Appearance of the oxide degrades the Al-Si coating adhesion.Remarkable difference between formability of the coating layer and the substrate is confirmed.The formability of the Al-Si coating could be optimized by controlling the phase transformation of the ductile Fe-rich intermetallic compounds within it during the austenization.

STAMP模型在危化品道路运输事故分析中的应用研究

为保障危化品道路运输行车安全,基于STAMP模型构建危化品道路运输的分层安全控制结构,将安全问题看作是控制问题,并将系统工程思想融入事故预防中。在此基础上,引入沪昆高速湖南邵阳段"7.19"特别重大道路交通危化品爆燃事故并对其进行实证分析,从物理层、基础层、运营层及监管层动态分析导致事故发生的控制缺失。结果表明:基于STAMP模型的安全分析方法不仅可考虑由组件失效引起的事故,还可发现组件之间的组织问题及决策背景,并对事故致因做出更为详细的解释,为类似事故的分析和预防提供思路与参考。

STAMP模型及其在核电厂DCS安全分析中的应用展望

数字化控制是核电发展的必然趋势,核电厂数字化控制系统(Digital Control System,DCS)的应用在提高核电厂系统控制能力的同时也增加了系统的复杂性,以事件链模型为基础的传统安全分析技术面临挑战。为提高核电厂DCS的安全性能,需要关注安全工程领域的新研究成果,将其引入到核电安全领域并加以研究。本文介绍一种新的基于系统理论的事故模型和过程(Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes,STAMP)安全模型,对比分析了其与传统安全模型的优缺点,说明了基于STAMP的风险分析(STAMP-Based HazardAnalysis,STPA)技术的基本步骤,并根据STAMP在国内外的应用情况,对STAMP在我国核电领域的发展前景进行了展望。

航空四站气体保障过程的STAMP建模与STPA安全性分析

航空四站气体保障装备的可靠性在不断提高,而气体保障过程中的事故仍有发生,需要一种新的方法系统地去识别新的危险因素,从而提高系统的安全性。从控制的角度结合STAMP和STPA对航空四站气体保障过程进行安全性分析。首先,介绍STAMP/STPA的工作机理;然后,对航空四站气体保障过程构建STAMP模型,采用STPA安全分析方法对航空四站气体保障过程的安全性进行分析,识别不安全控制行为,对生成的不安全控制行为进行场景分析;最后,与事故树分析法(ATA)进行分析结果的比较,从而证实了该方法的优越性。结果表明:采用STAMP模型和STPA安全分析法可以更加全面地识别出不安全控制行为及其原因,更有利于保证航空四站气体保障过程的安全。

Experimental and simulation research on thermal stamping of carbon fiber composite sheet

To improve the manufacture efficiency and promote the application of composites in the automobile industry, a new composite forming method, thermal stamping, was discussed to form composite parts directly. Experiments on two typical stamping processes, thermal bending and thermal deep drawing, were conducted to investigate the forming behavior of composite sheets and analyze the influence of forming temperature on the formed composite part. Experimental results show that the locking angle for woven composite is about 30°. The bending load is smaller than 5 N in the stamping process and decreases with the increase of temperature. The optimal temperature to form the carbon fiber composite is 170 ℃. The die temperature distribution and the deformation of composite sheet were simulated by FEA software ABAQUS. To investigate the fiber movement of carbon woven fabric during stamping, the two-node three-dimension linear Truss unit T2D3 was chosen as the fiber element. The simulation results have a good agreement to the experimental results.

基于STAMP模型的高校实验室安全教育工作探讨

高校实验室安全教育是实现实验室安全管理的重要手段,对于实验室安全教育的分析,需要采用系统分析方法来识别实验室安全教育工作中存在的问题,从而提升高校实验室安全教育的效果。基于STAMP模型,以过程控制思想对高校实验室安全教育工作进行系统分析。首先介绍STAMP模型理论;然后以某高校实验室安全教育工作为实例,通过构造高校实验室安全教育分层控制结构与过程模型,采用STAMP模型对该高校实验室安全教育工作展开了系统分析,识别和分析了4类潜在不安全控制行为及其发生过程;最后指出该高校实验室安全教育工作中存在的问题并提出改进的建议,以保障高校实验室安全教育工作的有效开展。

基于STAMP模型的军机飞行训练安全性分析

为系统地量化分析军机飞行训练的安全性,基于系统理论事故模型与过程(STAMP),识别军机飞行训练中的风险源和安全约束条件,明确风险因素;构建军机飞行训练仿真模型,将各风险因素转化为仿真系统输入量,通过仿真得到不同条件下的军机飞行参数,根据对飞行参数的不同安全要求定义风险度,定量描述军机飞行训练安全状况;通过案例分析,验证该模型的有效性。结果表明:军机飞行训练仿真模型从系统的角度充分考虑各风险因素特别是人为因素对飞行安全的影响,能够量化分析飞行训练安全水平。