This study analyzed the vertical deformation before and after the 2022 Menyuan Ms6.9 earthquake in Qinghai Province,China,using leveling profiles across faults measured from Minle County in Gansu Province to Menyuan C...This study analyzed the vertical deformation before and after the 2022 Menyuan Ms6.9 earthquake in Qinghai Province,China,using leveling profiles across faults measured from Minle County in Gansu Province to Menyuan County in Qinghai Province.Our results suggest the following:(1)The amplitude of regional vertical differential motion near the Sunna-Qilian and Lenglongling faults within the Qilian Shan increased before the 2022 Menyuan earthquake.It was accompanied by the emergence of high gradient deformation zones.Deformation at the Tongziba cross-fault leveling site near the Sunan-Qilian fault was considerable.In contrast,deformation at the Daliang cross-fault leveling site near the stepover region(adjacent to the epicenter)between the Lenglongling and Tuolaishan faults was minor.After 2018,vertical deformation at the Tongziba site notably accelerated,while that at the Daliang site was insignificant.(2)After the 2022 Menyuan earthquake,140—150 mm of subsidence deformation occurred near the Daliang site,while the Tongziba site did not experience significant deformation.(3)Vertical deformation before and after the 2022 Menyuan earthquake conforms with the elastic-rebound theory,and the evolution of pre-earthquake deformation was consistent with the strike-slip fault deformation pattern at different seismogenic stages,i.e.,the relative motion near the locked fault in the late seismogenic stage gradually weakened.The characteristics of strain accumulation and release derived from the vertical deformation before and after the Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake help understand the deformation process of earthquake preparation and earthquake precursors.展开更多
It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage pre...It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of sites.The EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential damage.Within the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain degree.Hence,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future earthquakes.Meanwhile,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.展开更多
Decoding the variation laws of the deformation field before strong earthquakes has long been recognized as an essential issue in earthquake prediction research. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution cha...Decoding the variation laws of the deformation field before strong earthquakes has long been recognized as an essential issue in earthquake prediction research. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before and after the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 earthquake were studied by using the Fisher statistical test method. By analyzing the characteristics of these anomalies, we found that: 1) The deformation anomalies are mainly distributed in the marginal front area of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where short-term deformation anomalies are prone to occur due to a high gradient of gravity;2) The deformation anomalies along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are characterized by spatial propagation, and the migration rate is about 2.4 km/d. The propagation pattern is counterclockwise, consistent with the migration direction of M_(S)≥ 6.0 earthquakes;3) The time and location of the Menyuan earthquake are related to the group migration of earthquakes with M_(S)≥ 6.0. Finally,based on the results of gravity field variation and the theory of crust stress wave, the law of deformation anomaly distribution was discussed. We suggest that both the deformation propagation along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the earthquake migration are possibly associated with the variation of the stress field caused by subsurface mass flow.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Lhasa National Observation and Research Station of Geophysics(NORSLS20-03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42072243)。
文摘This study analyzed the vertical deformation before and after the 2022 Menyuan Ms6.9 earthquake in Qinghai Province,China,using leveling profiles across faults measured from Minle County in Gansu Province to Menyuan County in Qinghai Province.Our results suggest the following:(1)The amplitude of regional vertical differential motion near the Sunna-Qilian and Lenglongling faults within the Qilian Shan increased before the 2022 Menyuan earthquake.It was accompanied by the emergence of high gradient deformation zones.Deformation at the Tongziba cross-fault leveling site near the Sunan-Qilian fault was considerable.In contrast,deformation at the Daliang cross-fault leveling site near the stepover region(adjacent to the epicenter)between the Lenglongling and Tuolaishan faults was minor.After 2018,vertical deformation at the Tongziba site notably accelerated,while that at the Daliang site was insignificant.(2)After the 2022 Menyuan earthquake,140—150 mm of subsidence deformation occurred near the Daliang site,while the Tongziba site did not experience significant deformation.(3)Vertical deformation before and after the 2022 Menyuan earthquake conforms with the elastic-rebound theory,and the evolution of pre-earthquake deformation was consistent with the strike-slip fault deformation pattern at different seismogenic stages,i.e.,the relative motion near the locked fault in the late seismogenic stage gradually weakened.The characteristics of strain accumulation and release derived from the vertical deformation before and after the Menyuan MS6.9 earthquake help understand the deformation process of earthquake preparation and earthquake precursors.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U2039209, U1839208, and 51408564)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (LH2021E119)+1 种基金Spark Program of Earthquake Science (XH23027YB)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1504003).
文摘It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of sites.The EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential damage.Within the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain degree.Hence,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future earthquakes.Meanwhile,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41330314)。
文摘Decoding the variation laws of the deformation field before strong earthquakes has long been recognized as an essential issue in earthquake prediction research. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before and after the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 earthquake were studied by using the Fisher statistical test method. By analyzing the characteristics of these anomalies, we found that: 1) The deformation anomalies are mainly distributed in the marginal front area of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where short-term deformation anomalies are prone to occur due to a high gradient of gravity;2) The deformation anomalies along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are characterized by spatial propagation, and the migration rate is about 2.4 km/d. The propagation pattern is counterclockwise, consistent with the migration direction of M_(S)≥ 6.0 earthquakes;3) The time and location of the Menyuan earthquake are related to the group migration of earthquakes with M_(S)≥ 6.0. Finally,based on the results of gravity field variation and the theory of crust stress wave, the law of deformation anomaly distribution was discussed. We suggest that both the deformation propagation along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the earthquake migration are possibly associated with the variation of the stress field caused by subsurface mass flow.
