ANALYSIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU IN SUMMER

In this paper, Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) infrared black-body temperature (Tbb) data from June to August 1998 are used to automatically track the activity of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over the Tibetan Plateau in China. Consequently, the features of MCS, such as area, intensity, life cycle, activity region and shape, are obtained. High Resolution Limited Area Analysis and Forecasting System (HLAFS) values provided by China National Meteorological Center are used to study the relationships between the MCS trajectories and their environmental physical field values, based on the distribution and trajectories of MCSs over the Tibetan Plateau. Favorable environmental physical field charts of influencing MCS movement out of the Tibetan Plateau in different UTC (Universal Time Coordinate) are developed by using spatial data mining techniques at levels of 400hPa and 500hPa, respectively.

MAGE ANALYSIS OF GEOSTATIONARY METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE FOR MONITORING MOVEMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU

Disaster weather forecasting is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, the trajectories of Mesoscale Convective Systems （MCSs） were automatically tracked over the Chinese Tibetan Plateau using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite （GMS） brightness temperature （Tbb） from June to August 1998, and the MCSs are classified according to their movement direction. Based on these, spatial data mining methods are used to study the relationships between MCSs trajectories and their environmental physical field values. Results indicate that at 400hPa level, the trajectories of MCSs moving across the 105°E boundary are less influenced by water vapor flux divergence, vertical wind velocity, reIative humidity and K index. In addition, if the gravity central longitude locations of MCSs are between 104°E and 105°E, then geopotential height and wind divergence are two main factors in movement causation. On the other hand, at 500hPa level, the trajectories of MCSs in a north-east direction are mainly influenced by K index and water vapor flux divergence when their central locations are less than 104°E. However, the MCSs moving in an east and south-east direction are influenced by a few correlation factors at this level.

Initiation and Evolution of Long-Lived Eastward-Propagating Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Second-Step Terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for model-based sensitivity testing to investigate the initiation and evolution of these types of MCSs as well as their impact on downstream areas.We subject each MCS to a semi-idealized(CNTL)simulation and a sensitivity(NOLH)simulation that neglects condensational heating in the formation region.The CNTL experiment reveals convection forms in the region downstream of a shortwave trough typified by persistent southwesterly winds in the low-to midtroposphere.Upon merging with other convective systems,moist convection develops into an MCS,which propagates eastward under the influence of mid-tropospheric westerlies,and moves out of the second-step terrain.The MCS then merges with pre-existing local convection over the plains;the merged convection reinforces the cyclonic wind perturbation into a mesoscale vortex at 850 hPa.While this vortex moves eastward to regions with local vortex at 850 hPa,another vortex at 925 hPa is also intensified.Finally,the vortices at 850 and 925 hPa merge together and develop into a mesoscale convective vortex(MCV).In contrast,MCSs fail to form and move eastward in the NOLH experiment.In the absence of eastward-propagating MCSs,moist convection and mesoscale vortices still appear in the plains,but the vortex strength and precipitation intensity are significantly weakened.It is suggested the eastward-propagating MCSs over the second-step terrain significantly impact the development and enhancement of moist convection and vortices in the downstream areas.

OBSERVATION AND MODEL ANALYSES OF POSITIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

The analyses of spatial and temporal characteristics of positive cloud-to-ground(CG)lightning for four mesoscale convective systems and two severe local convective systems in 1989 and 1990 show that positive CG flash rate usually has two peak values.The major peak occurs during the developing stage of the storm and most of the positive CG flashes originate at the lower part of the storm.The minor occurs during the dissipative stage of the storm and most of the positive CG flashes originate at the upper part of the storm,especially in the region of the wind divergence in the storm anvil.The positive CG flash rate is almost an order of magnitude larger in the developing stage than in the dissipative stage.The appearing time of the peak of negative CG flash rate is in accordance with that of the valley of pos- itive CG flash rate. The higher the intensity of the radar echo,the higher the positive CG flash rate.Most of the positive CG flashes oc- cur when the weak echo area is larger,and mostly originate in the region where the radar echo intensity is about 10dBz and in the back region of the moving storms.The spatial distribution of the positive CG flashes is much more dispersive than that of the negative.The mesoscale analysis reveals a bipolar lightning pattern.The mean bipole--length reaches its minimum during the mature stage of the storm and reaches the maximum during the developing stage of the storm. The vertical distribution of the charge density is calculated by a one-dimensional charging model.Then,we discuss the producing condition of the positive CG lightning and forming cause of charge structure mentioned above.

A Simulation Study of the Mesoscale Convective Systems Associated with a Meiyu Frontal Heavy Rain Event

In this study, evolution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） within a Meiyu front during a particularly heavy rainfall event on 22 June 1999 in East China was simulated by using a nonhydrostatic numerical model ARPS （Advanced Regional Prediction System）. Investigations were conducted with emphasis on the impact of the interaction among multi-scale weather systems （MWSs） on the development of MCSs in the Meiyu frontal environment. For this case, the development of MCSs experienced three different stages. （1） The convections associated with MCSs were firstly triggered by the eastward-moving Southwest Vortex （SWV） from the Sichuan Basin, accompanying the intensification of the upper-level jet （ULJ） and the low-level jet （LLJ） that were approaching the Meiyu front. （2） Next, a low-level shear line （LSL） formed, which strengthened and organized the MCSs after the SWV decayed. Meanwhile, the ULJ and LLJ enhanced and produced favorable conditions for the MCSs development. （3） Finally, as the MCSs got intensified, a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV）, a mesoscale LLJ and a mesoscale ULJ were established. Then a coupled-development of MWSs was achieved through the vertical frontal circulations, which further enhanced the MCV and resulted in the heavy rainfall. This is a new physical mechanism for the formation of Meiyu heavy rainfall related to the SWV during the warm season in East China. In the three stages of the heavy rainfall, the vertical frontal circulations exhibited distinguished structures and played a dynamic role, and they enhanced the interaction among the MWSs. A further examination on the formation and evolution of the MCV showed that the MCV was mainly caused by the latent heat release of the MCSs, and the positive feedback between the MCSs and MCV was a key characteristic of the scale interaction in this case.

Numerical Simulation of Torrential Rainfall and Vortical Hot Towers in a Midlatitude Mesoscale Convective System

A cloud-resolving model simulation of a mesoscale convective system （MCS） producing torrential rainfall is performed with the finest horizontal resolution of 444 m. It is shown that the model reproduces the observed MCS, including its rainfall distribution and amounts, as well as the timing and location of leading rainbands and trailing stratiform clouds. Results show that discrete convective hot towers, shown in Vis5D at a scale of 2-5 kin, are triggered by evaporatively driven cold outflows converging with the high-θe air ahead. Then, they move rearward, with respect to the leading rainbands, to form stratiform clouds. These convective towers generate vortical tubes of opposite signs, with more intense cyclonic vorticity occurring in the leading convergence zone. The results appear to have important implications for the improvement of summertime quantitative precipitation forecasts and the understanding of vortical hot towers, as well midlevel mesoscale convective vortices.

Understanding the Split Characteristics of the Tropical Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) of April 9, 2018, in Northern Ghana Using Infrasound Data

The split characteristics of the tropical Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) of April 9, 2018, in northern Ghana were studied using infrasound data measured by the mobile array (I68CI) which was deployed by C?te d’Ivoire National Data Center (NDC) in collaboration with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). These infrasound measurements were made during a measurement campaign from January 1st, 2018 to December 31, 2018, in northeast Cote d’Ivoire, precisely in Comoe National Park. Graphic Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (GPMCC) method based on a progressive study of the correlation functions was used to analyze and visualize data. The infrasound detection from this MCS shows clearly a division of the MCS structure into 2 distinct subsystems under the effect of internal and external constraints not well known but related to convection;a smaller subsystem in the north, associated with an area of intense rainfall of about 30 mm/hour and located at 9.5°N - 2°E with an azimuth of 70° and, a large subsystem in the south, associated with a zone of high rainfall of about 96 mm/hour and located at 8.8°N - 1.4°E with an azimuth of 90°. These two subsystems were located 200 km and 260 km from the I68CI station with frequencies of 2.3 Hz and 1 Hz respectively. The mesoscale convective systems in this region are moving from East to West and including several storm cells.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIATION IN HORIZONTAL VORTICITY AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PROCESS OF MCC TURNING INTO BANDED MCSS

Using real-time data and the WRF mesoscale model,a heavy rain event in the process of Mesoscale Convective Complex(MCC) turning into banded Mesoscale Convective Systems(MCSs) during 18-19 June 2010 is simulated and analyzed in this paper.The results indicated that the formation and maintenance of a southwest vortex and shear line at 850 h Pa was the mesoscale system that affected the production of this heavy rain.The low-vortex heavy rain mainly happened in the development stage of MCC,and the circular MCC turned into banded MCSs in the late stage with mainly shear line precipitation.In the vicinity of rainfall area,the intense horizontal vorticity due to the vertical shear of u and v caused the rotation,and in correspondence,the ascending branch of the vertical circulation triggered the formation of heavy rain.The different distributions of u and v in the vertical direction produced varying vertical circulations.The horizontal vorticity near the low-vortex and shear line had obvious differences which led to varying reasons for heavy rain formation.The low-vortex heavy rain was mainly caused by the vertical shear of v,and the shear line rainfall formed owing to the vertical shear of both u and v.In this process,the vertical shear of v constituted the EW-trending rain band along the shear line,and the latitudinal non-uniformity of the vertical shear in u caused the vertical motion,which was closely related to the generation and development of MCSs at the shear line and the formation of multiple rain clusters.There was also a similar difference in the positively-tilting term(conversion from horizontal vorticity to vertical positive vorticity) near the rainfall center between the low-vortex and the shear line.The conversion in the low vortex was mainly determined by бv/бp<0,while that of the shear line by бu/бp<0.The scale of the conversion from the horizontal vorticity to vertical vorticity was relatively small,and it was easily ignored in the averaged state.The twisting term was mainly conducive to the reinforcement of precipitation,whereas its contribution to the development of southwest vortex and shear line was relatively small.

Improving the Analyses and Forecasts of a Tropical Squall Line Using Upper Tropospheric Infrared Satellite Observations

The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.

STATISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MCSS OVER ASIA AND WESTERN PACIFIC REGION

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are severe disaster-producing weather systems. Previous attempts of MCS census are made by examining infrared satellite imageries artificially, with subjectivity involved in the process unavoidably. This method is also inefficient and time-consuming. The disadvantages make it impossible to do MCS census over Asia and western Pacific region (AWPR) with an extended span of time, which is not favorable for gaining a deeper insight into these systems. In this paper, a fire-new automatic MCS identification (AMI) method is used to capture four categories of MCSs with different sizes and shapes from numerical satellite infrared data. 47,468 MCSs are identified over Asia and western Pacific region during the warm season (May to October) from 1995 to 2008. Based on this database, MCS characteristics such as shape, size, duration, velocity, geographical distribution, intermonthly variation, and lifecycle are studied. Results indicate that the number of linear MCSs is 2.5 times that of circular MCSs. The former is of a larger size while the latter is of a longer duration. The 500 hPa steering flow plays an important role in the MCS movement. MCSs tend to move faster after they reach the maximum extent. Four categories of MCS have similar characteristics of geographical distribution and intermonthly variation. Basically, MCSs are zonally distributed, with three zones weakening from south to north. The intermonthly variation of MCSs is related to the seasonal adjustment of the large-scale circulation. As to the MCSs over China, they have different lifecycle characteristics over different areas. MCSs over plateaus and hill areas, with only one peak in their lifecycle curves, tend to form in the afternoon, mature at nightfall, and dissipate at night. On the other hand, MCSs over plains, which have several peaks in their lifecycle curves, may form either in the afternoon or at night, whereas MCSs over the oceans tend to form at midnight. Affected by the sea-land breeze circulation, MCSs over coastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi always come into being at about 1500 or 1600 (local time), while MCSs over the Sichuan Basin, affected by the mountain-valley breeze circulation, generally initiate nocturnally.

Diagnosis of the Secondary Circulation of Tropical Storm Bilis(2006) and the Effects of Convective Systems on Its Track

We diagnose characteristics of the quasi-balanced flow and secondary circulation（SC） of tropical storm Bilis（2006） using the potential vorticity（PV）-ω inversion method.We further analyze how secondary steering flows associated with mesoscale convective systems affected the track of tropical storm Bilis after it made landfall.The quasi-balanced asymmetric and axisymmetric circulation structures of tropical storm Bilis are represented well by the PV-w inversion.The magnitude of the nonlinear quasi-balanced vertical velocity is approximately 75%of the magnitude simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model.The SC of Bilis（2006） contained two strong regions of ascending motion,both of which were located in the southwest quadrant of the storm.The first（150-200 km southwest of the storm center） corresponded to the eyewall region,while the second（approximately 400 km southwest of the storm center） corresponded to latent heat release associated with strong precipitation in major spiral rainbands.The SC was very weak in the northeast quadrant（the upshear direction）.Dynamical processes related to the environmental vertical wind shear produced an SC that partially offset the destructive effects of the environmental vertical wind shear（by 20%-25%）.This SC consisted of upward motion in the southwest quadrant and subsidence in the northeast quadrant,with airflow oriented from southwest to northeast at high altitudes and from northeast to southwest at lower levels.The inverted secondary zonal and meridional steering flows associated with continuous asymmetric mesoscale convective systems were about-2.14 and-0.7 m s^（-1）,respectively.These steering flows contributed substantially to the zonal（66.15%） and meridional（33.98%） motion of the storm at 0000 UTC15 July 2006.The secondary steering flow had a significant influence on changing the track of Bilis from southward to northward.The direction of the large-scale meridional steering flow（3.02 m s^（-1）） was opposite to the actual meridional motion（-2.06 m s^（-1））.

Distribution and Diurnal Variation of Warm-Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Relation to the MCSs in China

Short-duration heavy rainfall（SDHR） is a type of severe convective weather that often leads to substantial losses of property and life. We derive the spatiotemporal distribution and diurnal variation of SDHR over China during the warm season（April–September） from quality-controlled hourly raingauge data taken at 876 stations for 19 yr（1991–2009）, in comparison with the diurnal features of the mesoscale convective systems（MCSs） derived from satellite data. The results are as follows. 1） Spatial distributions of the frequency of SDHR events with hourly rainfall greater than 10–40 mm are very similar to the distribution of heavy rainfall（daily rainfall 50 mm） over China's Mainland. 2） SDHR occurs most frequently in South China such as southern Yunnan, Guizhou, and Jiangxi provinces, the Sichuan basin, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, among others. Some SDHR events with hourly rainfall 50 mm also occur in northern China, e.g., the western Xinjiang and central-eastern Inner Mongolia. The heaviest hourly rainfall is observed over the Hainan Island with the amount reaching over 180 mm. 3） The frequency of the SDHR events is the highest in July, followed by August. Analysis of pentad variations in SDHR reveals that SDHR events are intermittent, with the fourth pentad of July the most active. The frequency of SDHR over China's Mainland increases slowly with the advent of the East Asian summer monsoon, but decreases rapidly with its withdrawal. 4） The diurnal peak of the SDHR activity occurs in the later afternoon（1600–1700 Beijing Time（BT））, and the secondary peak occurs after midnight（0100–0200 BT） and in the early morning（0700–0800 BT）; whereas the diurnal minimum occurs around late morning till noon（1000–1300 BT）. 5） The diurnal variation of SDHR exhibits generally consistent features with that of the MCSs in China, but the active periods and propagation of SDHR and MCSs difer in diferent regions. The number and duration of local maxima in the diurnal cycles of SDHR and MCSs also vary by region, with single, double, and even multiple peaks in some cases. These variations may be associated with the diferences in large-scale atmospheric circulation, surface conditions, and land-sea distribution.

The comparison of statistical features and synoptic circulations between the eastward-propagating and quasi-stationary MCSs during the warm season around the second-step terrain along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

Mesoscale convective systems(MCSs) around the second-step terrain(106°–113°E, 28°–35°N), along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, were detected, tracked and classified using a black body temperature(TBB) dataset during May to August 2000–2016(except 2005). The MCSs were divided into eastward-propagating(EP) and quasi-stationary(QS) types, to compare their spatial and temporal distributions and convective intensities, and to identify the favorable synoptic conditions for the formation and evolution of EP MCSs. The results showed that both MCS types occurred most often in July. The EP MCSs were mainly initiated over the eastern regions of the study area, while the QS type mainly originated in the western regions of the study area. Both MCS types mainly formed in the afternoon, but a second peak occurred in the early morning for QS MCSs. The EP MCSs had a larger cloud area at their mature stage and a lower cloud brightness temperature, indicating more intense convection. Additionally, the longer lifetime and further eastward propagation of the EP MCSs meant that they had a great influence on the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Synoptic circulation analysis demonstrated that the combination of the mid-level low trough east of the Tibetan Plateau(TP), and the western pacific subtropical high(WPSH), favored the formation and eastward propagation of EP MCSs. The positive vertical relative vorticity and stronger vertical wind shear provided dynamic conditions favorable for convective organization and development. Furthermore, a stronger low level jet imported warm and moist air to the eastern edge of, and the regions east of, the second-step terrain. The substantial convergence of water vapor promoted the development and long-lived maintenance of the EP MCSs.

Diurnal variations of turbulence parameters over the tropical oceanic upper troposphere during SCSMEX

Using the method of Thorpe analysis, the TKE （turbulence kinematic energy） dissipation rate （e） and turbulence diffusivity （K） were derived from the RS （radiosounding） measurements in the tropical oceanic upper troposphere. The measurements were performed four times per day during two intense observation periods （May 5-25, and June 5-25） on the Kexue #1 scientific observation ship of SCSMEX （South China Sea Monsoon EXperiment） in 1998. There are three new features obtained from our analysis. First, the responses of e and K to the onset of monsoon are negligible over the ocean at least for the data used here Second, the temporal variations of e and K are in a similar manner and exhibit strong diurnal variations. The diurnal variations achieve their maxima in the morning （08 LT） and early afternoon （14 LT）, and achieve their minima in the evening （20 LT） and early morning hours （02 LT）. The diurnal variations of turbulence parameters （e and K） and their responses to the onset of monsoon are entirely different from those derived over land at similar latitudes. Finally, although the correlations between the variations of e and MCSs （mesoscale convective systems）, which were derived from TRMM （tropical rainfall measuring mis- sion） satellite, are not very well in only few days, the diurnal variations of e averaged over May and June are strongly correlat- ed with the diurnal variations of MCSs with correlation factors of 0.79 and 0.94, respectively. This indicates that the turbulence and its diurnal variations over the tropic oceanic upper stratosphere region are highly related to the MCSs.