Metcalfe’s law states that the value of a network grows as the square of the number of its users(V■N^(2)),which was validated by actual data of Facebook and Tencent in 2013–2015.Since then,the users and the values ...Metcalfe’s law states that the value of a network grows as the square of the number of its users(V■N^(2)),which was validated by actual data of Facebook and Tencent in 2013–2015.Since then,the users and the values of Facebook and Tencent have increased significantly.Is Metcalfe’s law still valid?This paper leverages the latest data of Facebook and Tencent to fit the network effect laws and makes the following observations:1)actual data of network values fit a cube law(V■N^(3))better than Metcalfe’s law;2)actual data of network costs fit a cube law;3)actual data of network sizes show a growth trend matching the netoid function well.We also discuss the underlying factors affecting such observations and the generality of the network effect laws.展开更多
In 1980s, Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, proposed a formulation of network value in terms of the network size （the number of nodes of the network）, which was later named as Metcalfe＇s law. The law state...In 1980s, Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, proposed a formulation of network value in terms of the network size （the number of nodes of the network）, which was later named as Metcalfe＇s law. The law states that the value V of a network is proportional to the square of the size n of the network, i.e., V α n2. Metcalfe＇s law has been influential and an embodiment of the network effect concept. It also generated many controversies. Some scholars went so far as to state ＂Metcalfe＇s law is wrong＂ and ＂dangerous＂. Some other laws have been proposed, including Sarnoff＇s law （V α n）, Odlyzko＇s law （Vcx nlog（n））, and Reed＇s law （V o〈 2n）. Despite these arguments, for 30 years, no evidence based on real data was available for or against Metcalfe＇s law. The situation was changed in late 2013, when Metcalfe himself used Facebook＇s data over the past 10 years to show a good fit for Metcalfe＇s law. In this paper, we expand Metcalfe＇s results by utilizing the actual data of Tencent （China＇s largest social network company） and Facebook （the world＇s largest social network company）. Our results show that： 1） of the four laws of network effect, Metcalfe＇s law by far fits the actual data the best; 2） both Tencent and Facebook data fit Metcalfe＇s law quite well; 3） the costs of Tencent and Facebook are proportional to the squares of their network sizes, not linear; and 4） the growth trends of Tencent and Facebook monthly active users fit the netoid function well.展开更多
Zhang et al. exploited data on Facebook and Tencent to validate Metcalfe＇s law, which states that the aggregate value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of users. This note points...Zhang et al. exploited data on Facebook and Tencent to validate Metcalfe＇s law, which states that the aggregate value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of users. This note points out that the value of a social network may be driven not only by its size, but also by increases in the variety and quality of the services offered. I therefore extend Zhang et al.＇s approach by explicitly controlling for changes in network quality over time. For the case of Tencent, I also filter out revenues and costs that are unrelated to Tencent＇s core （social network） services. I find that these two extensions only strengthen Zhang et al.＇s conclusions： Metcalfe＇s law now outperforms the other laws even more clearlv.展开更多
基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2021M693227.
文摘Metcalfe’s law states that the value of a network grows as the square of the number of its users(V■N^(2)),which was validated by actual data of Facebook and Tencent in 2013–2015.Since then,the users and the values of Facebook and Tencent have increased significantly.Is Metcalfe’s law still valid?This paper leverages the latest data of Facebook and Tencent to fit the network effect laws and makes the following observations:1)actual data of network values fit a cube law(V■N^(3))better than Metcalfe’s law;2)actual data of network costs fit a cube law;3)actual data of network sizes show a growth trend matching the netoid function well.We also discuss the underlying factors affecting such observations and the generality of the network effect laws.
文摘In 1980s, Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, proposed a formulation of network value in terms of the network size （the number of nodes of the network）, which was later named as Metcalfe＇s law. The law states that the value V of a network is proportional to the square of the size n of the network, i.e., V α n2. Metcalfe＇s law has been influential and an embodiment of the network effect concept. It also generated many controversies. Some scholars went so far as to state ＂Metcalfe＇s law is wrong＂ and ＂dangerous＂. Some other laws have been proposed, including Sarnoff＇s law （V α n）, Odlyzko＇s law （Vcx nlog（n））, and Reed＇s law （V o〈 2n）. Despite these arguments, for 30 years, no evidence based on real data was available for or against Metcalfe＇s law. The situation was changed in late 2013, when Metcalfe himself used Facebook＇s data over the past 10 years to show a good fit for Metcalfe＇s law. In this paper, we expand Metcalfe＇s results by utilizing the actual data of Tencent （China＇s largest social network company） and Facebook （the world＇s largest social network company）. Our results show that： 1） of the four laws of network effect, Metcalfe＇s law by far fits the actual data the best; 2） both Tencent and Facebook data fit Metcalfe＇s law quite well; 3） the costs of Tencent and Facebook are proportional to the squares of their network sizes, not linear; and 4） the growth trends of Tencent and Facebook monthly active users fit the netoid function well.
文摘Zhang et al. exploited data on Facebook and Tencent to validate Metcalfe＇s law, which states that the aggregate value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of users. This note points out that the value of a social network may be driven not only by its size, but also by increases in the variety and quality of the services offered. I therefore extend Zhang et al.＇s approach by explicitly controlling for changes in network quality over time. For the case of Tencent, I also filter out revenues and costs that are unrelated to Tencent＇s core （social network） services. I find that these two extensions only strengthen Zhang et al.＇s conclusions： Metcalfe＇s law now outperforms the other laws even more clearlv.
