Development and Application of Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Platform for Characteristic Agriculture in Huzhou City Based on GIS

Based on the needs of characteristic agricultural production for meteorological services in Huzhou City,we use C# programming language to develop the meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning platform for characteristic agriculture in Huzhou City. This platform integrates the functions of meteorological and agricultural information monitoring,disaster identification and early warning,fine weather forecast product display,and data query and management,which effectively enhances the capacity of meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning for characteristic agriculture in Huzhou City,and provides strong technical support for the meteorological and agricultural departments in the agricultural meteorological services.

Construction of Forecast and Early Warning System of Meteorological and Geological Disasters in Qinghai Province

Based on the meteorological and geological disaster data, ground observation data set, CLDAS grid point data set, and EC, BJ and other model product data during 2008-2020, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were analyzed, and the causes of the occurrence of meteorological geological disasters and the deviation of model precipitation forecast were revealed. Besides, an objective precipitation forecast system and a forecast and early warning system of meteorological and geological disasters were established. The results show that meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were mainly concentrated from May to October, of which continuous precipitation appeared frequently in June and September, and convective precipitation was mainly distributed in July-August;the occurrence frequency of meteorological and geological disasters was basically consistent with the distribution of accumulated precipitation and short-term heavy precipitation, and they were mainly concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of Qinghai. Meteorological and geological disasters were basically caused by heavy rain and above, and meteorological and geological disasters were divided into three types: continuous precipitation(type I), short-term heavy precipitation(type II) and mixed precipitation(type III). For type I, the early warning conditions of meteorological and geological disasters in Qinghai are as follows: if the soil volumetric water content difference between 0-10 and 10-40 cm is ≤0.03 mm^(3)/mm^(3), or the soil volumetric water content at one of the depths is ≥0.25 mm^(3)/mm^(3), the future effective precipitation reaches 8.4 mm in 1 h, 10.2 mm in 2 h, 11.5 mm in 3 h, 14.2 mm in 6 h, 17.7 mm in 12 h, and 18.2 mm in 24 h, and such warning conditions are mainly used in Yushu, Guoluo, southern Hainan, southern Huangnan and other places. For type II, when the future effective precipitation is up to 11.5 mm in 1 h, 14.9 mm in 2 h, 16.2 mm in 3 h, 19.9 mm in 6 h, 25.3 mm in 12 h, and 26.3 mm in 24 h, such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hainan, Huangnan, and eastern Guoluo;as it is up to 13.3 mm in 1 h, 15.5 mm in 2 h, 16.6 mm in 3 h, 19.9 mm in 6 h, 31.1 mm in 12 h, and 34.0 mm in 24 h, such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hehuang valley. The precipitation thresholds of type III are between type I and type II, and closer to that of type II;such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hainan, Huangnan, and northern Guoluo. The forecasting ability of global models for heavy rain and above was not as good as that of mesoscale numerical prediction model, and global models had a wet bias for small-scale precipitation and a dry bias for large-scale precipitation;meso-scale models had a significantly larger precipitation bias. The forecast ability of precipitation objective forecast system constructed by frequency matching and multi-model integration has improved. At the same time, the constructed grid forecast and early warning system of meteorological and geological disasters is more precise and accurate, and is of instructive significance for the forecast and early warning of meteorological and geological disasters.

Coalbursts in China: Theory, practice and management

Coalburst is one of the most serious disasters that threaten the safe production of coal mines, and this disaster is particularly serious in China. This paper presents an overview of coalbursts in China since 1980s. From the "stress and energy" and "regional and local" perspectives, the achievements in the theory, practice and management of coalbursts in China are systematically summarized. A theoretical system of coalbursts has been formed to reveal the deformational behavior of coalbursts and explain the mechanism of coalbursts. The occurrence conditions of coalbursts are put forward and the critical stress is obtained. The stress index method for risk evaluation of coalbursts before mining is proposed, and the deformation localization prediction method of coalbursts is put forward. The relationship between energy release and absorption in the process of coalbursts is found, and the prevention and control methods of coalbursts, including the regional method, the local method and support, are presented. The safety evaluation index of coalburst prevention and control is put forward. The integrated prevention and control method for coal and gas outbursts is proposed. The prevention and control technology and equipment of coalbursts have also been developed. Amongst them, the distribution law of the critical stress in China coalburst mines is discovered. The technology and equipment for monitoring, prevention and control of coalbursts, as well as for integrated prevention and control of combined coalbursts and other disasters, have been developed. The energy-absorbing and coalburst-preventing support technology for roadways is invented, and key engineering parameters of coalburst prevention and control are pointed out. In China, coalburst prevention and control laws and standards have been developed. Technical standards for coalbursts are formulated, statute and regulations for coal mines are established, and regulatory documents are promoted.

Chinese public participation monitoring and warning system for geological hazards

In China,many geological hazards occurred in remote mountainous regions,and it was time-consuming to disseminate disaster information for the responsible parties to make timely judgements.Besides,only relying on professionals to monitor and manage disasters was demanding and costly.The Chinese government created a system to engage residents in the process of disaster risk management,namely’Public Participation Monitoring and Warning’(PPMW),to disseminate timely disaster information and bring down management costs.The objective of this system was to reduce casualties with minimum cost by organizing residents to evacuate from disasters in advance.This paper introduced the PPMW system,including its structure,operation mechanism by reviewing government documents and research articles,and its implementation by a case study of a landslide at Boli village(E 101°01’,N 27°29’),Yanyuan County,Sichuan Province,China on July 19th 2018.Further,this paper analyzed the strengths and limitations of the system and discussed its future development.It had the potential to become an affordable disaster risk management tool for other countries facing similar situations to China.

Application of remote monitoring technology in landslides in the Luoshan mining area

With the scale extending of mining, the landslide disaster in the earth’s surface will become more and more serious, and these landslide disasters are being threatened to the sustainable safe mining of the underground mine and the open-pit mine. Based on the theory that sliding force is greater than the shear resistance (resisting force) at the potential slip surface is the necessary and sufficient condition to occur the landslide as the sliding criterion, the principle and method for sliding force remote monitoring is presented, and the functional relationship between the human mechanical quantity and the natural sliding force is derived, hereby, the natural sliding force can be calculated according to the human mechanical quantity. Based on above principle and method, a new system of landslide remote monitoring is designed and 53 systems are installed on the landslide body in the Luoshan mining area, which make up the landslide remote monitoring network. According to the results of field test around 8 months, monitoring curves between sliding force and time are obtained, which can describe and forecast the develop trend of landslide. According to above analysis, the results show that this system has some following advantages: (1) real-time monitoring; (2) remote intelligent transmission; (3) landslides early warning.

金属矿山地质灾害风险智能监测预警技术现状与展望

金属矿山地质灾害风险智能监测预警技术是保障矿山安全生产的关键技术之一,是岩石力学应用于矿山安全领域研究的热点问题。从地质灾害风险定义、类型、监测方式、预警技术等方面出发,简述了金属矿山地质灾害风险监测预警技术的发展现状,指出在灾害风险定义方面,金属矿山地质灾害风险易发性、易损性和危险性量化分析理论体系尚不完善;在灾害风险监测与数据融合方面,多感知设备协同监测与数据融合理论仍不完善,尚未实现基于风险条件的感知设备布设方案智能调整,难以保障采动岩体力学响应的时空完整性与连续性;在灾害风险预警方法方面,监测与模拟相结合已成为矿山灾害预警发展趋势,应进一步与云计算、人工智能等技术相融合,建立完善的理论体系,实现实时动态、精准高效、智能的灾害风险预警。在此基础上,围绕“现场监测和数值模拟相结合灾害预测预警”的学术思想,提出了“地质灾害案例匹配、多源数据挖掘、力学机理分析、专家系统诊断”四位一体的灾害风险智能预测预警方法,进一步以弓长岭露天矿浅层隐伏空区垮塌与地表塌陷风险监测预警工作为背景,实现了上述方法的应用与推广。最后指出了金属矿山灾害风险智能监测预警技术存在着多源力学响应数据难以高精度连续协同感知、灾害预测预警模型参数难以精准选取、灾害监测预警系统尚不完善等问题,多灾种高性能、专用特种智能感知技术与装备,标准化数据通信协议与架构,监测—模拟相结合的灾害智能预警模型,地质灾害监测预警平台与数字孪生技术是解决上述问题的关键技术,是未来的主要发展趋势。

矿井微震与电法耦合监测技术

随着煤炭资源开采区域、深度及强度的增加,矿井工作面采掘扰动极易诱发矿井突水事故,严重威胁我国煤炭资源安全开采。矿井水害事故的发生主要是岩体采动破裂与矿井水渗流共同作用的结果。研究表明,微震信号的纵横波到时、幅值、频率等参量可有效表征岩体破裂位置、强度及其震源机制,地电场信号中的电阻率、激励电流及自然电位等参量可有效表征岩体渗流演化过程。透水通道形成对应微震场特征,地下水渗流对应地电场特征,因此微震电法耦合方法对矿井水害孕育发展过程具有监测预警的功能,可有效对采动破坏过程中形成的突水通道、水源位置及渗流过程等水害三要素进行精准捕捉;减少单一地球物理方法多解性,提高水害监测预警精度,对煤矿防治水意义重大。当前,微震与电法耦合监测技术在煤矿水害实时动态监测中开始得到应用,突破传统微震与电法独立采集的局限,课题组自主研发了国内外首款煤安认证的微震与电法耦合并行监测系统,该系统以微震场与地电场并行采集基站为核心,集被动源微震波场与主被动地电场为一体,通过连接矿井物联网,实现远程数据采集控制、传输及云端存储;其一体化网络服务器主机可连接多个采集基站,并将微震检波器、电法激励电极与电位测量电极进行相互隔离、并行采集,形成微震事件密度与能级分布、电阻率分布、自然电位分布等时空云图来监测预判水害三要素。微震与电法耦合监测技术仍需在微震事件智能识别与定位、地电场的电阻率三维反演以及自然电位渗流反演方面进行专项攻关;结合并行监测的微震电法大数据集,重点在微震电法数据联合反演、智能化监测预警方向开展进一步研究。微震与电法耦合监测技术,作为矿井水害的主动预警监测新方法,可为我国智能化矿井建设发挥重要作用。

基于新型智慧城市视角的地质灾害监测——以广州市为例

新型智慧城市建设为广州地质灾害监测提供了新机遇、新思路。笔者结合近年来地灾监测的科学研究和工程实践,从感知、调度、共治的角度浅谈对于广州地灾监测的一些思考。感知方面:广州市地貌结构复杂,北部丘陵台地作为地灾易发区,建议构建重点区域天-空-地三查体系,及时识别潜在风险源。预警调度:广州市地灾的发生与降雨有很强的时间相关性和空间耦合性,建议在广州市雨窝、降雨集中区构建精细化气象预警网格,提高监测预警精准度;针对地灾监测预警存在的重监测、轻预警现象,建议构建基于数据-知识双驱动的预警模型,实现高精度可解释的地灾预测建模;针对疑难边坡,建立专家研判系统,实现精准“把脉”,精准“治疗”。共建共治:加强跨部门跨层级合作,加强新建工程项目地灾评估,消减地灾存量,控制地灾增量。

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害监测预警与防控技术研究进展

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害是深部煤炭开采的重大安全隐患,探明其致灾机理、发展监测预警及防控技术是防治关键。提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害防治“四面体”理论,即分别从灾害分类、灾害机理、灾害预警、灾害防控4个层面概述煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究进展。总结了以能量释放主体、初始瓦斯压力、载荷条件为主的复合动力灾害类型划分依据;梳理了理论分析尺度和实验室尺度下的复合动力灾害机理研究进展,发现应力路径、微裂纹动态演化和煤岩赋存地质因素临界指标是致灾机理研究的关键;概述了以前期灾害前兆信息判识、中期灾害前兆信息采集、后期灾害一体化监测预警为主线的复合动力灾害监测预警技术研究进展;揭示了复合动力灾害消能减灾一体化防控技术和多尺度分源防控关键技术科学内涵。在此基础上针对两淮矿区灾害特点,提出了深部强动载条件下复合动力灾害智能判识与预警方法和分区协同防控方法。基于当前研究进展,提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究亟待解决的问题,助力实现深部煤炭安全、精准、高效开采。

铁路地质灾害勘察识别与监测预警

地质灾害对铁路建设、安全运营构成了极大威胁,“天空地”一体化综合勘察技术有效解决了地质灾害勘察识别难题。“天”基多源立体卫星遥感技术实现艰险复杂山区地质灾害的大范围精准判识,长时序InSAR与高精度GPS实现高陡岸坡的稳定性监测分析;“空”基真实感大场景、机载倾斜摄影和机载LiDAR扫描技术实现高植被覆盖区隐蔽性地质灾害判识;“地”基三维立体勘探技术获取岩土体结构、属性、参数;共同构建沟谷山地灾害链风险评价方案,为建设工程合理选址和工程设置提供依据。介绍地质灾害监测预警的方法、内容、技术和预警模型,对监测预警技术发展方向进行展望。

基于普适型监测预警体系中多参数模型研究——以云南省保山市大园子滑坡为例

为全面发展“人防+技防”的地质灾害防治技术体系,构建以普适型监测仪器为主的地质灾害监测预警体系,以云贵高原地区中的云南省保山市大园子滑坡为例,详细介绍了滑坡从方案设计到数据筛选及模型设计等各环节,主要选取降雨、位移变形和裂缝三类参数模型在监测预警体系中的应用,通过采集地质灾害体的关键信息,优化监测预警模型及调整阈值,及时捕捉地质灾害体的变化信息,依靠平台判据模型自主触发预警,完成了普适型监测预警体系建设的关键环节,从而实现了普适型监测预警的效果,极大的提升了地质灾害防治体系的自动化和智能化能力。

崩塌滑坡-堰塞湖-溃决洪水-泥石流灾害链演化特征分析及防治对策研究

某沟谷两岸坡面陡峻,沟谷狭窄,纵坡降较大,在地震、降雨等不利因素影响下,其左岸堆积体上方的崩滑堵沟隐患点可能出现失稳,并发展为崩塌滑坡-堰塞湖-溃决洪水-泥石流灾害链。针对此灾害链不同阶段的演化特征,采用相应的数值模拟模型和数值计算方法进行模拟分析和计算,评价其对沟口桥梁工程的影响,并采取相应的防治对策。经分析计算,崩塌滑坡隐患点距沟底高程落差约1 km,岩体体积约8×10^(6)m^(3),平均厚度约26 m,崩塌滑坡堵河可形成最大水深为14.4 m、面积约为7.19×10^(4)m^(2)、方量约为2.74×10^(5)m^(3)的堰塞湖;堰塞湖溃决形成洪水过程中,桥梁处最大水深为4.43 m(不含原始水位),最大流速为7.54 m/s,峰值流量为807 m^(3)/s;在溃决洪水强烈揭底冲刷和侵蚀的条件下,溃决洪水引发的泥石流在桥梁处的最大水深为7.1 m、最大流速为8 m/s、峰值流量为1685.5 m^(3)/s、最大冲刷深度为16.58 m。为减少该灾害链对桥梁工程的影响,采取河道疏通、岸坡防护和监测预警等防治措施。

基于动态感兴趣区域和大数据的气象灾害动态预警方法

为了降低气象灾害损失,提出基于动态感兴趣区域和大数据的气象灾害动态预警方法。构建客户端/服务器模式的气象灾害动态预警框架,采集气象相关信息及受灾主体信息,经数据处理层处理后,利用改进模糊C均值聚类算法,提取卫星云图的动态感兴趣区域,确定气象灾害场景及可能影响区域,采用3个改进深度收缩自编码网络,分别提取感兴趣区域气象因素、环境因素、受灾主体因素特征,构建场景识别的Softmax分类器,确定场景与各致灾因素的关联度,结合支持向量机确定气象灾害等级、类型,实现气象灾害的动态预警。实验结果表明,该方法聚类效果突出,能识别气象灾害类型及等级。

公众对气象灾害预警信息接收情况及其影响因素——基于全国3911份调查问卷的实证研究

为了更好地了解公众对预警信息的接收情况,确保预警信息内容看得懂,传播准确到位,更好提高公众的危机应对能力。采用问卷法在全国范围内进行随机抽样调查,并对其影响因素进行系统分析和研究。研究结果表明,根据调查样本的年龄段不同,对于是否接收到过预警信息以及预警信息的接收渠道存在较大差异,尤其是60岁以上和18岁以下人群对于预警信息的接收能力较弱;公众对于预警内容通俗易懂程度上的调查表明小学及以下文化程度的人群对预警信息的理解上还存在一定困难,应加强平时的科普宣传以便增强对预警内容的理解;大多数受众人群都认为预警信息或多或少对自身是有一定作用的,占到总人数的99.54%,且有74%的人群认为预警信息非常有用。其中学生和自由职业者等自身防护能力较弱或长期暴露在户外时间较长的人群对预警信息的需求明显高于企事业单位职工和离退休职工等人群。因此在预警信息的传播上对于特定敏感人群的靶向发布就显得尤为重要。

铁路地质灾害防控面临的挑战与对策

铁路地质灾害防控是铁路安全保障工作的重中之重。在深入分析铁路地质灾害防控主要影响因素的基础上,总结铁路地质灾害防控面临的四大挑战:高海拔高山峡谷区地质勘察难度大、地质灾害准确识别评估难度大、地质灾害精准监测预警难度大、复杂大型地质灾害防治难度大,提出强化地质勘察深度、开展地质灾害识别评估、积极应用监测预警新技术、不断创新地质灾害防治技术、加强地质灾害风险管控等5项防控对策,并分析铁路地质灾害防治的发展方向,为确保铁路行车安全、推动铁路高质量发展奠定坚实基础。

基于三维数值模拟和切线角理论的露天煤矿滑坡灾害预防技术

露天煤矿软岩边坡变形复杂,滑坡危险性大,为了有效预防边坡滑坡灾害,提出了一种三维数值模拟和切线角理论相结合的滑坡灾害预防技术。该技术研究过程为基于大尺度三维数值模拟在空间上找到潜在变形体,利用蠕变曲线切线角理论计算,建立了不同类型边坡雷达预警阈值划分标准,并对潜在重点变形区域进行时间尺度的全天候监测。将该技术应用于霍林河煤田二号露天采区边坡的滑坡灾害预防中,取得很好的效果。通过数值模拟技术发现,采区南帮开挖区域附近边坡存在潜在变形体,有滑坡风险;再结合切线角理论计算得到的边坡雷达监测阈值提前发出预警信息,得到的边坡雷达监测变形区域与三维数值模拟得到的潜在变形区域基本一致,成功预警了边坡变形的发生,保障了露天煤矿的安全生产。

铁路全生命周期地质灾害防治技术对策

我国地域广阔,地质灾害严重。在铁路规划、设计、建设、运营和维护等各阶段,都需充分考虑地质灾害风险,并采取相应的预防和治理措施。研究提出贯穿铁路勘察设计、建设和运营全生命周期的铁路地质灾害防治总体技术框架,并采取以下技术对策:通过充分的地质勘察工作,查明沿线地质环境条件,为铁路规划和设计提供科学依据;施工过程中采取合理的施工方法和措施,对地质灾害进行防治,避免对环境造成破坏;加强运营维护期的地质灾害监测和预警,及时发现和处理潜在危险。研究提出的铁路全生命周期地质灾害防治技术对策已在多处投入应用,为确保铁路安全运行和可持续发展发挥了重要作用。

基于InSAR监测的露天矿山边坡崩塌预警研判技术

为了解决露天矿山边坡崩塌灾害预警这一难题,采用InSAR监测技术对露天矿山边坡进行了长时序连续监测,获取海量边坡形变监测数据,探讨了边坡体整体形变场及异常点形变数据特征,确定了崩塌灾害的潜在区域及位置。现场勘察结果表明:崩塌灾害潜在区域现场与研判预警结论相契合;基于InSAR监测技术,并结合边坡体特征进行边坡崩塌研判预警是可行的、预警结果是可靠的。

地震地质灾害监测预警信息共享机制研究

【目的】随着我国地震地质灾害发生的频率和规模不断增加,其已成为威胁人民生命财产安全的重要因素,提升地震地质灾害预报的准确性、及时性显得尤为重要。【方法】在分析我国地震地质灾害监测预警体系的现状及存在问题的基础上,从国家、省级和市级等三个层面提出了地震地质灾害监测预警信息共享机制建设思路与建议,并设计出一种地震地质灾害监测预警信息共享机制。【结果】通过对建设地震地质灾害监测预警网络基础设施、完善地震地质灾害数据采集与处理软件系统、搭建地震地质灾害监测预警信息共享平台、保障措施等进行研究,从而形成完整的地震地质灾害监测预警信息共享机制体系。【结论】该体系的应用能提高数据采集和处理能力及数据分析和决策水平,为我国地震地质灾害监测预警信息化建设提供理论参考和实践借鉴。

地质灾害监测预警管理平台建设研究

为实现地质灾害监测预警工作的科学化、信息化和精细化,提高地质灾害实时监测和动态预警预报能力,本文利用GIS、三维可视化、云计算等先进技术,基于云服务的T-C-V(terminal-cloud-virtual)框架,构建了地质灾害监测预警数据库,开发了地质灾害监测预警管理平台,实现了地质灾害的二三维一体化展示、基本信息管理、监测预警管理、应急指挥管理等功能,有效地提高了地质灾害的监测预警能力和管理水平。