Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Eco-environmental benefit assessment of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme——the middle route project

This paper assess the eco-environmental benefits that may come from the middle route project of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme(SNWT) with principles and methods of eco-economics and planning reports of SNWT's middle route project. Some benefits were calculated in monetary units. To make sure that the results can be comparable with normal monetary indices, concrete assessment objects and the parameters are prudently selected according to the major characteristics of the project and its water import region. Primary assessment revealed that in different project construction stages, the benefit could be more than 13 07 billion RMB Yuan in 2010 and 19 79 billion RMB Yuan in 2030, respectively. The monetary value tends to increase with social-economic development. To realize these potential benefits, however, calls for more endeavors.

Geological conditions and key rock mechanics issues in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

In terms of special geological conditions of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the classification method for surrounding rocks is discussed by combining with the construction method of tunnel boring machine （TBM）. The classification standard of surrounding rocks is put forward on the basis of physical simulations and engineering practices. Damage, deformation and evolution of surrounding rocks induced by TBM excavation are discussed. Meanwhile, the long-term deformation mechanisms and stability of surrounding rocks are also studied. On this basis, a three-dimensional constitutive model for interbedded sandstone slate and a fiat shell-joint element-foundation system for calculating internal forces of segment lining are established. The deformation features of surrounding rocks of deep and steep interbedded sandstone slate and their influences on internal forces of segment lining are presented. Finally, the design methods of segment lining constructed in deep and steep flysch are proposed.

Price Analysis of Water Supply for South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The factors influencing the water supply price of a hydraulic project include natural conditions and economic policies. This paper thoroughly demonstrates the water price of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from the viewpoint of economic policies. It is considered that if the project is assigned as a profitable one and built depending on commercial loan from bank completely or mostly, the water price will be too high to be undertaken by users,and if the project places the public good at first while considering the economic benefit, its investment mainly relies on the state (national or local governments) appropriation and self-raised funds and a little from the bank loan on favorable terms, the price determined according to the principle of satisfying the cost and reasonable profit will be relatively lower and can be undertaken by the users in the North China where water shortage is serious. The problem of higher water price of agricultural irrigation to the north of the Yellow River can be tackled by taking measures such as "compensating agriculture by industry" according to foreign practical experiences and relevant suggestions.

Simulation of Transport Channel in China's Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The unsteady flow in the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Channel was simulated numerically using an implicit solution procedure for the Saint Venant equations. An equivalent roughness was used to simulate the effect of many transfer structures on the water levels in the main channel. Various gate operating and control methods were analyzed to study the response to disturbances produced by varying the flow rates through the Tianjin outlet. The results show that when the inflow at the head changes in the same way as the sum of the flow rates through all the outlets, the transition time and the fluctuation of the water levels using the timed gate operation method are less than when using the simultaneous gate operation method, but the variations of the gate openings and flow rates through each control gate are much larger. The flow disturbances produced by the Tianjin outlet can be rectified within several channel sections and the transition time can be greatly shortened by allowing the water levels immediately upstream of the control gates to vary within proscribed ranges, rather than being held constant.

Coupling interaction between biodiversity and aquatic habitat area in Western Route Project vicinity

The Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project will divert water from the upper Yangtze River and its tributaries, the Dadu River and Yalong River, to the upper Yellow River. The project may ease the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin. However, it may also have some effects on the ecosystem in the upper Yangtze River Basin. Benthic invertebrates play an important role in the river ecosystem, particularly in the circulation of materials and nutrition. Benthic invertebrates are widely used to quickly assess river ecosystems because of their rapid response to changes in the water environment. The diversity of benthic invertebrates is closely associated with the aquatic habitat area. This study examined this interaction by sampling the benthic invertebrates in an expanding area. The conclusions are that the diversity of benthic invertebrates begins to decrease when the aquatic habitat area is reduced to 45% of the original area, and decreases dramatically when the aquatic habitat area is reduced to 10% of the original area. The aquatic habitat area should be kept at more than 45% of the original area in order to maintain the significant diversity of benthic invertebrates.

南水北调中线总干渠冰盖糙率观测分析

冰盖糙率是确定渠道冰期输水水位和流量关系的基础参数,一直是明渠冰工程研究的重点之一。鉴于当前大型混凝土渠道冰盖糙率研究成果相当匮乏,以南水北调中线总干渠石家庄以北唯一无输水建筑物的唐河节制闸—放水河节制闸渠段为研究区域,依据全线通水以来唯一生成全渠段封冻冰盖的2016年1—2月逐日水位和流量实测数据,采用伯努利能量方程和谢才-曼宁公式推求渠道糙率,定性定量分析封冻前后渠道糙率变化特征。结果表明:①研究渠段畅流期渠道糙率n b为0.0167,封冻期冰盖综合糙率n c为0.0146,冰盖下表面糙率n i为0.0118。②由于水力磨蚀作用,封冻期冰盖糙率随时间呈波动减小的趋势。③渠道一旦生成封冻冰盖,输水能力大幅降低,仅占渠道设计流量的66.7%。该研究给出了大型混凝土渠道封冻冰盖糙率和输水能力降低的确切数值,以期为冰期输水调度和类似工程设计提供科学依据。

南水北调中线京石段闸门间歇关闭水力响应特性

为减小闸门关闭引发的水位壅高,以南水北调中线工程京石段磁河闸至沙河北闸之间的渠池为研究对象,构建一维明渠非恒定渐变流仿真模型,比较分次间歇关闸与一次连续关闸,以及不同闸门间歇方案对闸前壅水峰值、水力振荡稳定时间的影响。研究表明:分次间歇关闸可带来更低的闸前壅水水位和更短的水力振荡稳定时间;设置1次间歇相较于多次间歇可减小闸前壅水峰值,将间歇开始时刻设置在上游降水波即将传播至闸前的时刻、设置间歇时长略小于关闸总时间的1/2均可有效降低闸前壅水峰值,缩短稳定时间。闸门分次间歇关闭水力响应特性与水波运动规律紧密关联,合理设置间歇有助于在应急调控阶段减少事故造成的影响。

南水北调中线沉藻池布置方案优化

南水北调中线总干渠联通工程处拟新建沉藻池,实现总干渠藻类等混合物集中沉降和处理。通过现场试验研究总干渠水体藻类等混合物沉降特性,并采用二维水动力数值仿真分析沉藻池在设计工况条件下的水流特性,提出导流墩的优化布置思路。结果表明:在水深基本一致条件下,随着断面平均流速的增加,有效沉降距离增加,有效沉降率有所降低;在沉藻池初始设计方案下,藻类等混合物可在沉藻池内进行沉降,但沉藻池利用效率不足;布置纵向导流墩后,可有效改善沉藻池内水流平顺性和水体交换能力;在设计工况下,沉藻池内回流区水域面积占比从57%降低至7%,池内水流平均流速从约0.10 m/s降低至约0.07 m/s,平均水龄从约18 h降低至约6 h。研究成果可为中线沉藻池工程布置提供基本技术支撑。

基于标准化温度指数的南水北调中线工程沿线地区冷暖冬评估

选择南水北调中线工程沿线邯郸、正定、涿州为代表地区,利用1979-2021年冬季逐日气温数据,分析各代表区气温序列统计频率分布与理论概率分布的拟合情况,提出标准化温度指数(standardized temperature index,STI),并据此建立新的冬季冷暖量化评估模型。结果表明:STI方法与国标法的冬季冷暖评估结果基本一致,但在各代表区强冷冬和强暖冬划定上,STI评估得出的年份数量均少于国标法;各代表区以1月份气温计算得出的冷暖等级阈值对应的气温值均明显低于按整个冬季3个月计算结果。工程所在纬度越高,冬季冷暖等级阈值对应的气温值越低;根据STI评估结果,邯郸、正定、涿州发生强冷冬概率分别为7.14%、9.52%和4.76%,发生弱冷冬及以上的概率分别为38.09%、40.48%和38.09%,发生平冬的概率分别为21.43%、28.57%和21.43%,发生弱暖冬及以上的概率分别为40.48%、30.95%和40.48%,发生强暖冬的概率分别为4.76%、7.14%和2.38%。研究成果与基于正态分布的国标法相比,考虑了气温序列的偏态性概率分布特征,对相对冷暖的判别更科学,有推广应用价值。

南水北调中线总干渠水情数据智能清洗

南水北调中线总干渠水位、流量等实时水情数据受外界扰动、测量系统误差等因素影响而产生的病态水情数据将造成调度模型计算失真,甚至导致计算失败。为此,针对上下游流量数据空间上的逻辑错误和水位数据时间序列的跳变,分别建立基于粒子群优化的水量平衡模型和指数加权滑动平均模型,对病态水情数据在空间、时间上实施横向、纵向清洗处理。以穿黄节制闸至漳河节制闸间的渠段为典型研究区间,利用模型自动识别流量倒挂点,并对该渠段涉及的12座节制闸、26处分水点的流量数据进行统一修正,实现了上下游逻辑上的合理性。同时,选取研究渠段内的闫河节制闸为代表,在48 h内运行基本稳定状态下,对每2 h的闸前水位数据序列进行分析,自动识别出跳变数据并进行合理修正。结果表明:建立的模型可自动识别病态水情数据并进行智能清洗,处理后的数据能够较好地满足输水调度分析决策的需要,因此该模型具有推广应用的价值。

南水北调中线河南段沿线城市旅游竞争力评价及旅游合作

选取南水北调中线河南段沿线8个城市作为研究对象,参考并借鉴城市旅游竞争力评价相关研究成果,从基础设施、发展现状和生态环境3个方面选取22个评价指标。通过主成分分析法和系统聚类分析法对8个沿线城市旅游竞争力进行了排序和等级水平划分,提出了促进南水北调中线河南段沿线城市旅游发展和合作的路径。结论包括:(1)郑州旅游竞争力最强,许昌、鹤壁旅游竞争力相对较弱。(2)划分了3种竞争力等级水平和2种竞争类型。(3)提出了着力推进“一轴两带三组团”式旅游合作路径。

南水北调中线工程核心水源区石漠化治理探讨

淅川县是南水北调中线工程渠首和核心水源区,境内有亚洲第1大人工水库丹江口水库,生态区位十分重要,由于水源区周围的山体主要是喀斯特地貌,土壤脊薄,植被稀少,石漠化问题十分突出。为担起一库清水送京津的重任,治理石漠化迫在眉睫。2016年以来,淅川县根据不同石漠化类型,通过人工造林、飞播造林、封山育林、退化林修复等多种方式进行综合治理,积累了丰富的经验,为石漠化地区石漠化治理提供参考。

汉江流域骤旱演变规律及其对南水北调中线工程的响应分析

通过识别汉江流域骤旱事件,分析了汉江流域在南水北调中线工程实施前后其骤旱事件特征的差异,并且使用偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Squares Regression, PLSR)、支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)和随机森林(Random Forest, RF)3种机器学习方法建立了骤旱历时回归模型,定量分析了南水北调中线工程对骤旱历时的影响。结果表明:(1)南水北调中线工程实施后,汉江流域骤旱频次从平均每年0.7次上升至0.9次,骤旱历时从平均每年24.6 d上升至34.5 d,但在空间上,上游骤旱历时显著延长,中游增加幅度减弱,下游骤旱历时却缩短;(2)骤旱爆发历时在空间分布上由5~6 d均匀分布变为上下游不均分布,上游爆发历时缩短至3~5 d,而中下游地区延长至7~9 d;(3)随机森林对骤旱历时模拟效果最好,气候条件对骤旱历时影响最大,相对重要性为0.34,其中降水为0.14,净辐射为0.12,相对湿度为0.08,南水北调中线工程延长了汉江流域中下游地区的骤旱历时,相对重要性为0.12。

引江补汉工程实施后的南水北调中线水源工程可调水量分析

随着新时期南水北调后续工程的高质量发展,首批建设工程引江补汉工程正式开工,为支撑未来南水北调中线水源工程与引江补汉工程的联合协调运行,根据引江补汉工程设计参数,提出多组丹江口水库与引江补汉工程联合调度方式,并模拟分析得到引江补汉工程实施后南水北调中线水源工程可调水量具有重要意义。研究结果表明:设置引江补汉工程补水水位控制线、同步优化陶岔渠首引水调度线,充分利用引江补汉工程补水来满足汉江中下游用水需求,从而置换更多坝前水量引至陶岔渠首、清泉沟等用水需求方,可在一定程度上实现丹江口水库供水与引江补汉工程补水决策的有效衔接;相比于中线一期工程现状供水调度情景,采用合适的引江补汉工程与中线水源工程联合调度方式,可在保障汉江中下游用水量需求的同时,满足下游断面最小用水量达标率至98.9%~99.2%,并提高中线受水区可供水量17.7亿~25.8亿m^(3),继而有效协调中线水源工程的中线受水区、清泉沟渠首及汉江中下游等多方用水需求。

南水北调中线干渠闸门同步关闭水力响应特性

构建南水北调中线干渠局部一维非恒定渐变流模型,以“刁河闸—湍河闸”渠池为例,测试闸门调控方式和渠道运行条件对闸前壅水峰值水位、达到峰值水位所用时间、水力振荡频率、水力振荡幅度等水力响应特性的影响。研究表明:水力振荡上升过程快,下降过程慢,波幅随时间呈对数函数衰减;闸前壅水峰值水位随闸门关闭速度、闸门关闭幅度、输水流量、运行水位、渠道糙率的减小而近似线性地减小;达到峰值水位所用时间对输水流量、运行水位和糙率变化不敏感,随闸门关闭幅度和输水流量的增加而近似线性减小;水力振荡频率对闸门关闭所用时间、闸门关闭幅度、输水流量和糙率变化不敏感;水力振荡幅度对运行水位、糙率变化不敏感,随输水流量的增大而快速衰减。

南水北调中线工程沿线区域创新合作的共生机制与模式

区域创新合作主体由合作创新而产生了关联,随着合作的延续与深入,信任关系不断加深,创新合作网络将向共生合作网络演进。研究从南水北调中线工程沿线区域创新合作入手,对南水北调中线工程沿线区域创新合作机制以及合作模式进行分析。运用扎根理论进行系统探索,辨识和提取共生要素,构筑其共生合作机制,同时构建了产业链、创新链、资金链、人才链、生态链五链融合合作模式体系,以期对南水北调跨流域创新合作带来新的启示。

南水北调中线工程水资源市场联动定价配置机制研究

配置机制是影响水资源配置效率的关键因素之一,为进一步提高南水北调中线工程水资源配置效率,采用均衡分析方法,探讨了目前配置机制存在的内生节水激励不足、市场均衡难以实现、水资源稀缺性体现不充分、市场化生态补偿机制不健全等问题,提出了包含供给侧市场、需求侧市场、受水区同一地级市内水权交易市场、受水区不同地级市间水权交易市场的南水北调中线工程水资源市场联动定价配置机制,并分析了各市场的运作机制及价格联动机制。为规避市场机制失灵,从政府监管和工程技术支持两个方面提出了新机制有效运行的保障措施。

水面光伏抑制蒸发作用对应节水量的优化配置--以白洋淀湿地补水为例

水面光伏可通过组件等的遮挡作用减少建设水域蒸发损失,规模开发后形成显著的抑制蒸发的节水潜力,如何再配置上述节水量以实现最佳水资源利用是亟待解决的问题。基于此,结合湿地生态补水问题,以湿地优势物种价值增量最大、湿地水资源保障能力增量最大和水源地用水效益损失最小为目标,构建水面光伏抑制蒸发作用对应节水量的优化配置模型,并以典型湿地——白洋淀进行案例分析。结果表明:水面光伏抑制蒸发的节水可在改善湿地生态补水工作中发挥关键作用。白洋淀低、中和高补水需求下,芦苇经济价值最大增加0.5亿、2.6亿和5.5亿元,水资源保障能力提高61%、42%和28%,丹江口水库在丰水年、平水年和枯水年的平均最小发电损失为0.25亿、0.38亿和0.43亿kW·h。白洋淀补水需求和丹江口水库来水的不同遭遇情景的配置方案表明:白洋淀在低补水需求时,建议高流量补水时段为3—6月和9月;在白洋淀中、高补水需求时,建议高流量补水时段为10月—次年2月或3—6月。

南水北调中线工程水位的水动力-神经网络耦合预测模型

南水北调中线工程通常以闸前常水位调度运行,而水位在闸门调控影响下多数处于非平稳状态,探索其变化规律对于监测数据和研究方法均有一定限制和要求。监测数据方面,针对大量的高频监测数据选取均值滤波、滑动平均值滤波、递推中位值平均滤波法、滑动小波变换进行数据预处理,提高数据质量、增强数据预测的可行性。研究方法层面,以BP神经网络模型和长短期记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)网络模型为主体框架,以水动力模型的模拟数据为辅助支撑,对比单神经网络在不同工况下的预测效果,输出水动力-神经网络组合预测结果。结果表明:数据预处理是数据分析和预测的必要环节,高频数据滤波处理再预测可以提高数据预测的精度;均值滤波、递推中位数均值滤波方式对数据预处理的效果最好,指标合理时滤后决定系数(R^(2))精度均超过0.95,且均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)不超过0.02,准确性高;基于滤后数据进行模型构建,通过对比数据驱动模型和数据-机理双重驱动模型的计算结果,R^(2)维持在0.98附近,RMSE、MAE维持在0.01左右,耦合模型具有更好的稳定性和准确性。