Economic Growth:The Fundamental Path to the Realization of Social Security Rights for Migrant Workers

The International Labour Organization seems to only see the aspect of social security promoting economic growth,while neglecting the aspect of economic growth supporting social security.From the standpoint of materialism and the practice of social security,the realization of social security rights for migrant workers fundamentally depends on economic growth.The Belt and Road Initiative has provided a Chinese solution for creating a strong material and technological foundation to meet the social security needs of all people,including migrant workers.

Income Growth,Income Gaps,and Rural Poverty Reduction in China

This paper analyzes the evolving trends in China’s rural poverty from 1988 to 2018 and how income growth and income gaps contributed to poverty reduction using rural household data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP).We find that after China’s reform and opening up policy introduced in 1978,China’s rural poverty has been reduced substantially due primarily to income growth,although this poverty-reducing effect was partially offset by widening income gaps.During the progress of this poverty reduction,however,income distribution replaced income growth as the key driver.For the extremely poor in particular,their poverty status hinged upon income distribution.As revealed by our empirical analysis of income sources,wage income became the chief source of income for rural households,contributing a rising share to poverty reduction in the countryside.The contribution of net income from government transfer to poverty reduction has increased in recent years,and this contribution has been increased with the deepening level of poverty.Calculation of the pro-poor growth index suggests that the poor population primarily benefited from the trickle-down effect of economic growth,and the economic growth pattern has yet to lean towards pro-poor growth.

Employment and income of rural migrants in cities

This paper gives a detailed examination of the overall conditions,poverty and income of rural migrants over recent years,using results of the survey on rural migrants from 69,000 rural households and more than 7,100 administrative villages in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS)in 2004,as well as questionnaires in the four cities of Guangzhou,Beijing,Nanjing and Lanzhou conducted by our task force in 2007,together with on-site research in places like Guangzhou,Bozhou and Xi’an.This paper presents a comprehensive delineation of the conditions and problems facing rural migrants and sets out policy recommendations.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Migrant Workers' Income in China——Based on Empirical Research of Survey and Research Data in Shanxi Province

On the basis of conducting field survey of migrant workers in 18 counties of Shanxi Province, this article analyses the basic characteristics of migrant workers in Shanxi Province, and adopts revised Mincer model to conduct empirical analysis of various factors concerning the income of migrant workers in Shanxi Province. The results show that age, gender, skills and other factors, have significant impact on migrant workers' income, while the educational level and the working places within the province have inconspicuous impact on migrant workers' income. Therefore, in order to improve the income of migrant workers in Shanxi Province, we must adopt some measures as follows: train the migrant workers to promote their vocational skills; expand employment space; promote integration of agricultural production, supply and marketing.

How China's Grain-for-Green Project Contributes to Farmers' Income Growth

Initially intended to prevent water and soil erosion, China＇s Grain-for-Green Project （GGP） also has had economic impacts on farmers＇incorne and employment. Based on the poverty monitoring survey data between 2006-2010 from National Bureau of Statistics （NBS）, this paper evaluates the GGP＇s policy effects with respect to farmers＇ income, non-agricultural employment and poverty alleviation. Our findings suggest that contributing to the GGP, farmers＇ income including GGP subsidies increased significantly compared with the pre-GGP level,＂ however, if GGP subsidies are not taken into account, the increase in farmers＇non-agricultural income after the GGP could only compensate.for the income losses from farmland reduction, showing an insignificant effect. Second, there exist significant differences on employment tendency among GGP households. High-income households tend to engage in operation business in forestry, livestock and fishery activities, while medium-income families are more inclined to seek employment outside, and the differences attribute to the inter-group intrinsic characteristics. Lastly, the GGP＇s poverty alleviation effect varies with the difference in poverty standard. Overall the GGP＇s poverty alleviation effect is significant.

The Influence of Urbanization Development on Farmers' Income Growth in Wuhan City

Over the past three decades,with the development of urbanization in Wuhan,farmers' income has been substantially increased in Wuhan City,and urbanization has played an important role in farmers' income growth. By the empirical analysis of the data related to the level of urbanization development and farmers' income in Wuhan City during 1993- 2013,this paper finds that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization development and farmers' income growth in Wuhan City,and urbanization development has become an important driving force for farmers' income growth. Finally,this paper puts forth some policy recommendations for promoting farmers' income by urbanization development in Wuhan City on the basis of empirical analysis.

The Evolutive Law concerning Relationship between Economic Growth and Farmers' Income Increase in Xinjiang since the Reform and Opening-up:An Empirical Analysis of the VEC Model

We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respectively. We establish the cointegration equation, the vector error correction (VEC) model, and use the impulse response function to conduct empirical analysis of the evolutive law concerning relationship between economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang during the period 1978-2010. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth in Xinjiang and farmers' income increase; the former plays an important role in promoting the latter, following the evolutive law "first intensify, then abate, intensify again, and finally become stable". We put the following policy recommendations: providing preferential policies for farmers, scientifically and rationally guiding the transfer of rural labor; improving the function of agriculture, increasing the proportion of non-farm income; gradually bridging the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, coordinating urban and rural development.

The ＂Middle Income Trap＂ in Economic Growth in Different Economies

Nowadays, more than 50% of the world population live in middle-income economies. Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges, such as economic restructuring, industrial upgrade and income growth. Therefore, academia around the worm have paid much attention to theoretical and empirical researches of the ＂middle income trap＂ and long-term trends of global economic growth. Based on analyses about the long-term growth path of the world economy and the characteristics of different stages of economic development, this paper defines the＂middle income trap＂ and its characteristics and examines, through a large number of cases from different economies, the reasons why ＂growth slowdown＂ arises during the middle-income development stage. These theoretic and empirical researches have reference value and heuristic meaning for China to actively respond to the challenges of the ＂middle income trap＂.

Impacts of household income on beef at-home consumption:Evidence from urban China

Beef consumption in China has increased substantially from 5.0 million tons in 2000 to 7.7 million tons in 2019 thanks to rapid income growth,but still remains low compared to pork and poultry consumption.Improving the understanding about the impacts of household income on beef consumption in China is necessary to forecast future beef demand and inform the domestic beef industry,especially in the context of unprecedented expansion of middle income class in China.Based on survey data of 32878 urban households collected by the National Bureau of Statistics of China,we employed the inverse hyperbolic sine(IHS)double-hurdle model to estimate income elasticities of beef demand across different income groups and simulated possible trends of future beef consumption of Chinese urban residents.The empirical results showed that the unconditional income elasticities of beef consumption at home vary between 0.169 for the lowincome group and 0.671 for the high-income group.The simulated results indicated that beef consumption is expected to increase by 12.0 to 38.8%in 10 years and by 18.6 to 70.5%in 15 years under distinct income growth scenarios.Our findings provide practical insights for policy makers and other stakeholders about future beef demand,such as potential opportunities embedded in rising beef demand for domestic producers and world beef exporters as well as the urgency of improving the supply chain resilience of beef in China.

‘Middle-Income Trap’ and ‘High-Income Waft＇： Challenges and Opportunities to China

The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.

How to Increase the Farmers' Income in Rongchang County?

The farmers' income growth in Rongchang County is mainly from the family business and wage income,accounting for 55. 4% and37. 9%,respectively; the growth rate of rural per capita net income increased from 12. 4% in 2005 to 17. 6% in 2010,close to or higher than Chongqing's average but lower than the level of adjacent districts and counties such as Yongchuan; the absolute value of net income in Rongchang increased from 3426 yuan to 6755 yuan,less than in other districts and counties similar to Yongchuan in Chongqing,far less than in the other three municipalities( up to 6991 yuan). The slow farmers' income growth is affected by multiple factors such as overall low quality of the rural labor force,county industrial structure and difficulties in transferring a large number of rural surplus labor forces. It is necessary to improve the quality of farmers,strive to adjust the agricultural structure,and develop rural cooperative economic organizations,in order to increase farmers' income.

Empirical Research on the Relations between Farmers' Income Increase and Economic Development in Henan Province

According to data of per capita net income of rural households and the per capita regional gross output from 1978 to 2008 provided by the Henan Statistical Yearbook, we know that both of the time series obey the unit root process, so they belong to non-stationary time series. The results of the Engle-Granger two-stage estimation method show that the two terms have long-term stable integration equilibrium relations. The results of Granger Causality Test show that there is only the one way Granger Causality relation from farmers' income increase to economic growth. Connecting with the reality of Henan Province, the possible reasons are analyzed. The population of rural residents is huge and the income level of the rural residents are low, and the marginal consumption tendency is bigger than urban and township residents, so the increase of farmers' income will promote economic growth. Notably, the income increase of farmers is even more helpful to expand domestic demand. Since 1978, the consumption level and structure of farmers in Henan Province is increasing gradually and the role played by of farmers' income increase in stimulating economic growth is increasing. Besides, the urban-rural double system which serves for economic development strategy is the historic root for the expanding gap of urban and rural income. In addition, the economic policy which gives priority to cities is the system root for the expanding gap of rural and urban income.

Nutritional Status of Under-five Children from Urban Low-income Families in Xiangtan and Jilin in China

There have been many studies on the nutrition and the growth status of children from rural and remote western regions of China, whereas researches on children from urban low-income families are scarce. This study aimed to investigate the growth and nutritional status of children under five years of age from urban low-income families in China. There were 169 children aged 25–60 months recruited from Xiangtan and Jilin, two cities with a population of 2.81 million and 4.26 million respectively, in China in this cluster cross-sectional study. Data were collected on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, the feeding practices and the incidence of anemia and diarrhea. The results showed that the prevalence of low birth weight and macrosomia was 7.1% and 9.5% for the two cities, respectively, which was higher than that for other cities in China（1.5% and 5.9%）. Of all the sampled children, 14.6% and 8.2% suffered anemia and diarrhea, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that legumes or nuts fed in a 24-h recall increased the risk of anemia（OR=4.9）. Children whose caregivers began to introduce complementary foods relatively late would have high diarrhea prevalence（OR=1.4）. In conclusion, the prevalence of anemia and diarrhea in under-five children from urban low-income families in China is relatively high. The growth and nutritional status of these children is greatly affected by feeding practices. A series of measures should be taken by relevant government departments to improve the health of these children.

The Human Capital Return and Social Integration of Migrants in China

From the perspective of migrants ＇self-selection and skill transferability theories, this paper compares human capital return rates of different migrant groups in urban China and discuss the possibility of economic status identified by migrants as local labors. Results suggest that positive self-selection works for all types of migrant labors. Migrant workers with non-agricultural household registration or feinong hukou have no trouble to be integrated into the labor market of destination. They even have higher income and human capital return rates than local urban workers. Newly-arrived migrant peasants earn less than local labors. However, after a certain period, the skilled migrant workers catch up with local labors and are economically integrated into the local labor market while the low-skilled migrant group still earns less. Therefore the integration of migrant labors in urban labor market is yet a kind of segregated integration.

Global Income Inequality and Poverty Reduction:Trends and Remedies

There is a global consensus that world economy need not only grow faster,but also grow in a way that the poor receive a greater share of the benefits of that growth.It is well documented that income inequality is on the rise,with the richest 10%earning up to 40%of total global income.The poorest 10%earn only between 2%and 7%of total global income.After long time of neglect,inequality has re-entered the mainstream development policy agenda at both national and global levels indicating that relevant policies should be universal in principle paying attention to the needs of disadvantaged and marginalized populations.As highlighted in almost all SDG’s documents,income inequality is a global problem that requires global solutions.This involves improving the regulation and monitoring of financial markets and institutions,encouraging development assistance and foreign direct investment to regions where the need is greatest.Facilitating the safe migration and mobility of people is also key to bridging the widening divide.SDG 10 encompasses 10 targets with the objective of promoting social,economic,and political inclusion of all,irrespective of age,sex,disability,race,ethnicity,origin,religion,or economic or other status.Achieving SDG 10 reaffirms that the 2030 development agenda will focus not only on eradicating poverty but also on tackling inequalities in all its forms through adopting sound policies to empower the bottom percentile of income earners,and promote economic inclusion of all regardless of sex,race,or ethnicity.This paper analyses the resent status of income inequality and its relationship with economic growth and poverty in selected developing countries.The paper highlights that there is a triangular relationship between income distribution,poverty and economic growth;while accelerated economic growth is a primary factor in reducing poverty,inequalities can constrain poverty reduction significantly.

Assessment of Rural Migrants’ Resettlement in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

In order to assess the rural migrants' resettlement in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and provide a reference for formulating the later migrant support policies, we select 342 rural migrants from County A in Hubei Province and County B in Chongqing Municipality for the household survey. The survey results show that after removal, housing, and infrastructure (electricity, transportation, communication, household appliances) concerning the migrants are improved substantially, but there are still some problems in water drinking, land, employment and income restoration. The later support should put great emphasis on the following aspects: including the rural migrants into the social security system; improving drinking water and irrigation facilities; promoting industrial restructuring; strengthening skills training and education for the migrants, to gradually enrich the migrants and make them live a comfortable life.

Causes for Middle Income Trap and Recommendations for China's Leaping Paths

The middle income trap is an objective challenge faced in the development of the economy. There is provision in both the amount and time. It is worth studying why some Latin American countries have fallen into this trap for decades. This paper analyzed the causes for the middle income trap of Latin American economies. On this basis,it came up with recommendations for China's leaping paths,including accelerating the structural reforms on the supply front to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,deepening the reform and increasing the efficiency with institutional innovation as the core,protecting legitimate property rights,reforming the income distribution,combining accurate poverty alleviation,narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor,performing administration according to laws,vigorously developing education,expanding the opening up,and keeping sustainable growth,so as to successfully leap over the middle income trap.

环境质量视角下收入差距对经济增长的影响研究——基于环境质量中介与门槛效应的实证分析

缩小收入差距,提升环境质量,实现经济可持续增长是推动我国新时期高质量发展的本质要求。基于2009—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用动态面板模型、中介效应模型、动态门限面板模型实证研究了收入差距对经济增长的影响,以及环境质量在二者关系中所发挥的中介效应与门槛效应。研究结果表明:收入差距的扩大对经济增长有明显的抑制作用;环境质量在收入差距影响经济增长的过程中起到了部分中介作用与单重门槛效应,随着环境质量改善收入差距对经济增长呈现先促进后抑制的特征。政府应当积极通过缩小收入差距,优化环境质量与收入差距的匹配模式来促进经济增长,实现中国经济的可持续发展。

China's next giant:Urbanized migrants as new consumers

By examining the urbanization process underway in China, this paper predicts potential consumption expansion andits sustainability in the next decade and beyond.In years past, China’s urbanization pattern has transformed fromsemi-inclusive to inclusive, embodied in the better inclusion of migrant workers and their families under the umbrellaof public services and changes in household registration (hukou) identity.This trend is expected to create a giant newconsumer group in 10 years; 2020 is the target year the Chinese leadership has set for achieving a better-off society.Inthis paper we examine this by summarizing existing research.

我国宏观收入分配结构测算及对经济增长的影响研究——基于新中国成立以来长序列数据的实证

本文利用资金流量表、住户收支调查、财政收支等数据,采用拟合法对1952年以来我国宏观收入分配结构进行系统测算,深入分析新中国成立至今我国宏观收入分配结构的发展变化,并以住户部门收入份额和劳动者报酬占比为主要指标,对比分析我国宏观收入分配结构与发达经济体的差异。基于数据测算和分析,进一步使用1953—2022年的时间序列数据构建多元线性回归模型和滚动回归模型,实证检验收入分配相关指标对消费及经济增长的影响。研究结果显示,第一,新中国成立以来我国住户部门收入份额总体呈现波动下降态势,2008年国际金融危机之后逐步有所回升,住户部门收入份额平均高于劳动者报酬占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重20个百分点左右。第二,与美国、欧洲、日本等经济体进行同期对比显示,我国住户部门收入份额低约20个百分点,从相似发展阶段对比看也低10个百分点左右;住户部门收入份额差距大于我国劳动者报酬占比与发达经济体的差距,表明我国住户部门收入份额偏低与再分配的调节作用不足有关。第三,实证研究显示,投资、消费和出口都是我国经济增长的重要动力;提高住户部门收入份额对消费的促进作用大于对资本形成的抑制作用,有助于带动经济增长,但从其作用效果的发展变化看,提高住户部门收入份额对消费的提振作用有边际递减趋势。