Comparison Between Reconstructions of Global Anthropogenic Land Cover Change over Past Two Millennia

Three global datasets, the History Database of the Global Environment （HYDE）, Kaplan and Krurnhardt （KK） and Pongratz of reconstructed anthropogenic land cover change （ALCC） were introduced and compared in this paper. The HYDE dataset was recon- structed by Goldewijk and his colleagues at the National institute of Public ttealth and the Environment in Netherland, covering the past 12 000 years. The KK dataset was reconstructed by Kaplan and his colleagues, the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Research Group at the Institute of Environmental Engineering in Switzerland, covering the past 8000 years. The Pongratz dataset was reconstructed by Pon- gratz and her colleagues at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany, coveting AD 800-1992. The results show that the reconstructed datasets are quite different from each other due to the different methods used. The three datasets all allocated the historical ALCC according to human population density. The main reason causing the differences among the three datasets lies on the different relationships between population density and land use used in each reconstructed dataset. The KK dataset is better than the other two datasets for two important reasons. First, it used the nonlinear relationship between population density and land use, while the other two used the linear relationship. Second, Kaplan and his colleagues adopted the technological development and intensification parameters and considered the wood harvesting and the long-term fallow area resulted from shifting cultivation, which were neglected in the recon- structions of the other two datasets. Therefore, the KK dataset is more suitable as one of the anthropogenic forcing fields for climate simulation over the past two millennia that is recently concerned by two projects, the National Basic Research Program and the Strategic and Special Frontier Project of Science and Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Astronomical Algorithms: Amended Multi-Millennia Calendar

Three new worldwide calendars are proposed and compared in this paper. None of them requires any departure from an existing tradition to divide years on lean and leap. Although all three are pretty accurate, it is demonstrated that the Julian calendar with one additional amendment is the simplest and the most suitable for implementation.

Millennia Anniversary of King Gesar

In November 2001, UNESCO approved China’s proposal for celebrating the millennium anniversary of King Gesar in 2002-2003. The Chinese deem this as a confirmation of their efforts to rescue, compile, translate and publish the longest epic in the world. Efforts have since been made to prepare for the event. The National King Gesar Office joined hands with local branch offices to sponsor celebration activities from last June.——Garze in Sichuan held a meeting in the hometown of Gesar in June;

Impacts of major volcanic eruptions over the past two millennia on both global and Chinese climates:A review

Major volcanic eruptions(MVEs)have attracted increasing attention from the scientific community.Previous studies have explored the climatic impact of MVEs over the past two millennia.However,proxy-based reconstructions and climate model simulations indicate divergent responses of global and China’s regional climates to MVEs.Here,we used multiple data from observations,reconstructions,simulations,and assimilations to summarize the historical facts of MVEs,the characteristics and mechanisms of their climatic impact,and directions for future research.We reviewed volcanic datasets and determined intensive MVE periods;these periods corresponded to the years 530–700,1200‒1460,and 1600‒1840 CE.After tropical MVEs,a substantial cooling effect is observed throughout the globe and China on the interannual-interdecadal time scales but an inconsistent cooling magnitude is detected between reconstructions and simulations.In the first summer after tropical MVEs,a decrease in global and monsoonal precipitation is observed.In reconstructions and simulations,an increased precipitation is seen for the Yangtze River Basin,while large uncertainties in precipitation changes are present for other regions of China.Decadal drought can be induced by frequent eruptions and volcanism superimposed on low solar irradiation and internal variability.MVEs affect climate directly through the radiative effect and indirectly by modulating internal variability,such as the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).However,changes in the phase,amplitude,and periodicity of ENSO and AMO after MVEs and the associated mechanisms remain controversial,which could account for model-reconstruction disagreements.Moreover,other internal variability,uncertainties in reconstruction methods and aerosol‒climate models,and climate background may also induce model-reconstruction disagreements.Knowledge gaps and directions for future research are also discussed.

Spatiotemporal variation of rainy season span and precipitation recorded by lacustrine laminated pollen in the Tibetan Plateau during the past two millennia

The quantitative reconstruction of the length of the rainy season and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is crucial for revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of the Westerlies and Asian summer monsoon, as well as its ecological and environmental effects. Accurately determining the start and end times of the rainy season on the Plateau remains challenging.This study determined the start and end times of the rainy season in different locations on the Plateau by identifying precipitation inflection points. We calculated the duration and precipitation amount of the rainy season and established a transfer function between the modern pollen assemblages and them. Then, we reconstructed the rainy season variations in Kusai Lake(northern TP) and Jiang Co(central TP) during the past two millennia. The results showed that, the rainy season precipitation in Kusai Lake recorded five periods of high precipitation: AD 580–680, 1000–1100, 1200–1450, 1550–1780, and 1920–present, corresponding to the stages with long rainy season. The rainy season precipitation sequence in Jiang Co recorded four periods of high precipitation: AD 80–500, 800–950, 1250–1450, and 1780–present, which is consistent with the long rainy season before AD 1000 but unclear afterward. Spatially, rainy season precipitation on the Plateau exhibited four patterns: “wet in both north and south” may be related to abnormally strong summer monsoons;“dry in both north and south” likely associated with weak Westerly wind and weak summer monsoon;“wet in the south and dry in the north” linked to strong summer monsoon and weak Westerly wind;and “dry in the south and wet in the north” connected to weak summer monsoon and strong Westerly wind. This study revealed the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the rainy season onset and end, duration, and precipitation amount on the Plateau over the past two millennia. It provides natural background support for further understanding the coupling between Westerly wind and Asian summer monsoon.

Temperature variations on the Tibetan Plateau over the last two millennia

The paleoclimate data recovered from ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments indicate regional features of climatic change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the last 2000 years. The composite temperature reconstructions indicate that several main climatic episodes, such as the 揕ittle Ice Age?between 1400 and 1900, the 揗edieval Warm Period?in 1150—1400, a less warm period in 800—1100, and an earlier cold period between the 3rd and 5th centuries, occurred in the TP. In addition, temperature varied from region to region. The period from AD 800 to 1100, which was warm in northeastern TP, was contemporaneous with cooling in the western and southern TP. The southern TP experienced warming between 1150 and 1400. For western TP, the d 18O records of the Guliya ice core indicate that the period 1250—1500 witnessed a clear warming. Large-scale trends in the temperature history from northeastern TP are more similar to those in eastern China than are the trends from the Guliya ice cap far to the west and southern TP. The most prominent similarities between the temperature variations of the TP and eastern China are such cold phases as 1100—1150, 1500—1550, 1650—1700 and 1800—1850, and the latter three cold events match with three widespread glacial advances which occurred on the TP during the Little Ice Age.

动情·共情·传情:文化节目《舞千年》的跨媒介叙事研究

《舞千年》是2021年由哔哩哔哩网站与河南卫视联合出品的一部现象级舞蹈综艺,节目自播出后好评如潮,引发学界热议。该节目以跨媒介叙事作为叙事方法,以情感作为连接文本、媒介、受众的基石,为新时代文艺作品如何讲好中国故事提供了重要启示价值:其一,在文本层面,该节目在故事、人物、技术上进行创新,为文本“增魅”,由此触发观众个体的动情;其二,在媒介层面,节目通过弹幕这一媒介,触动不同情感圈层之间的共情,既包括舞蹈专业与非专业圈层的外部互动,也包括“趣缘圈层”的内部互动;其三,在受众层面,节目设定了互动式的参与机制和创造性的叙事空间,引发了观众与节目组、文化与情感的对话,从而赋予社会的集体情感以传播路径。

中国过去2000年气候变化与社会发展

在前人研究的基础上,系统梳理了中国过去2000年气候变化与社会的自然、经济、人文三大亚系统发展状况间的对应关系,从数百年至数十年的时间尺度上揭示了气候变化的过程在实质上也是社会结构重新构建的过程。具体有以下结论:①尽管并非所有的暖期社会都是繁荣昌盛的,但总体上说来,"冷抑暖扬"的文明韵律十分清晰;②气候变化对社会发展的影响,通过自然—经济—人文亚系统的各个环节而逐级传导,进而产生了五个层次的气候冲击与适应;③在过去2000年气候恶化阶段,与生态环境脆弱性密切相关的贫困人群生存问题是诱发社会动乱的重要原因;④气候只是社会发展的外部条件,人对生产关系的变革才是推动古代社会发展进程的根本动力;⑤随着科学技术的不断发展,气候变化对古代社会发展的不利影响在总体上渐趋减轻。

过去2ka气候变化研究进展

过去 2ka气候和环境变化是PAGES计划研究的核心内容之一。自该计划实施以来 ,各国科学家就近 2ka气候变化研究做了大量的工作 ,陆续召开了多次国际会议。介绍了研究的历史背景 ,然后从冰芯、树轮和历史文献三个方面回顾和评述了国内外近年来对过去 2ka气候和环境变化的研究现状 ,其中重点关注了中世纪暖期和小冰期在全球的空间表现特征。

近2000年都兰树轮10年尺度的气候变化及其与中国其它地区温度代用资料的比较

据高分辨率的青海都兰树轮年表 ,将过去 2 0 0 0年的气候变化划分为 2 30’S以前的高温期 ,2 40’S～ 80 0’S冷暖波动强烈的低温期 ,810’S～ 10 70’S显著高温期 ,即中世纪暖期 ,10 80’S～ 1880’S的低温期 ,其中包括 142 0’S～1870’S的小冰期 ,以及 1890’S后的升温期。统计发现 11次极端高温或低温事件 ,以及几次大的突变事件全部出现于中世纪之前 ,指示 15 0’S～ 110 0’S期间气候运行的高度不稳定性。和中国东部、古里雅冰芯和青藏高原南部温度代用资料比较后发现 ,公元初至 3世纪前期的东汉暖期 ,3世纪后期至 7世纪初的魏晋南北朝冷期 (期间约380’S～ 46 0’S暖 ) ,中世纪暖期以及小冰期等几次重大的气候事件在中国东部、都兰和青藏高原南部序列中均存在。古里雅冰芯仅记录了前两次重要事件 ,中世纪暖期以及小冰期在该序列中表现微弱。 2 0世纪的升温在古里雅冰芯最显著 ,都兰、中国东部次之 ,而高原南部似乎不明显。

“气候门”与20世纪增暖的千年历史地位之争

2009年哥本哈根世界气候大会召开前夕的"气候门"(climategate)事件,将科学界对过去千年温度变化的"曲棍球杆曲线"(hockey stick)之争推向顶点。介绍了这一争议的始末,并根据相关文献对这一争议中的两个关键问题"中世纪暖期与小冰期是否在全球广泛存在、20世纪是否为过去千年最暖"进行了综述。结果显示:尽管大尺度的地表温度重建结果存在不确定性,但随着近20年来全球代用资料的不断丰富和研究方法的改进,大尺度温度变化重建结果的不确定性逐步降低,争议各方的观点正在逐步接近。特别是最新的研究结果显示:虽然20世纪增暖迅速,温暖程度也很明显,但在过去千年中并不是空前的。

中国北方过去2000年沙尘事件与气候变化

文章依据冰芯、树木年轮等自然记录和历史文献记录,分析了中国北方不同地区近2000年的沙尘事件及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,在干旱区西部,历史时期的沙尘变化主要受温度变化的制约,无论在10年尺度,还是百年尺度上,沙尘事件与温度变化均表现为显著的反相关,即气候寒冷期与沙尘频发事件相对应,气候温暖期与沙尘发生变弱期一致;在半干旱区,在10年尺度上温度和降水序列与沙尘发生频率均显著负相关,但在百年尺度上沙尘与降水变化的关系更为密切;在干旱区东部,沙尘与气候变化的关系具有明显的过渡性特征,气候变化对沙尘事件的作用主要在百年尺度上体现出来,沙尘与温度记录的负相关比降水更好,在10年尺度上气候与沙尘序列尽管也是负相关,但不显著。通过对现代气象记录的气温、降水变化和沙尘事件频数分析,其结果与历史时期情况基本一致。

气候变化对中国历史上蝗灾爆发影响研究

气候变暖是否会加剧蝗灾爆发、导致全国范围的农作物歉收,我们研究这两者的关系并上溯到过去1000年。结果表明,年均温和10年均温较高的年份以及与干旱的组合年份是蝗灾爆发的高发年份。此外,在过去1000年中,气候变暖加剧了虫灾爆发的频率。考虑到我国是世界上最大的农业大国,出于全球粮食安全考虑,这项研究所揭示的气候变化诱导的虫灾威胁应引起我们足够的重视。

青藏高原地区过去2000年来的气候变化

依据冰芯、树轮、沉积物分析和冰川波动等各单点古气候代用资料,以及重建的综合温度变化曲线,分析了近2000年青藏高原温度变化的整体性和区域性特征。全青藏高原综合温度曲线显示中世纪暖期(1150—1400年)、小冰期(1400—1900年)以及公元3～5世纪冷期的存在。青藏高原温度变化具有明显的区域性特征。在9～11世纪,青藏高原东北部以温暖为特征,而青藏高原南部和西部表现为寒冷。青藏高原南部和西部分别于1150—1400年(此时段在高原东北部表现为弱暖期)和1250—1500年经历了气候变暖。与中国东部文献记录的最新综合研究结果比较,高原东北部与中国东部的温度变化最为一致。而且,许多重大气候事件,如1100—1150年、1500—1550年、1650—1700年和1800—1850年的冷事件在高原和中国东部同时出现,而后3次冷期与小冰期期间中国西部发生的冰川前进相匹配。

CLIMATIC VARIATIONS IN CHINA OVER THE LAST 2000 YEARS

A compilation of paleoclimate records from ice core, tree-rings, lake sediments and historical documents provides a view of temperature change in China over the recent 2000 years. For all-China temperature reconstruction, six sub-stages are identified for the last two millennia. Around AD 0－240, AD 800－1100, AD 1320－1400 and the period from AD 1880 on were warm while around AD 240－800, AD 1100－1320, AD 1400－1880 were cold. Also, temperature varied from region to region in each of the warm or cold periods. The Eastern Han warm period (0－AD 240), the cold period covering the span of Wei, Jin, and the Southern and Northern Dynasties, the MWP (AD 800－1100) and succeeding LIA occurred in eastern China and the Qilian Mountains. Only the first two climatic events were recorded in Guliya ice core while the so-called MWP and LIA was far weaker. Also, the warming between AD 800 and 1100 didn′t occur in the south of Xizang (Tibet) Plateau. Instead, the southern Xizang Plateau experienced warming in AD 1150－1400. The aggregated China temperature agrees well with North-hemisphere temperature in the past millennia, indicating close relationship of temperature changes between China and North-hemisphere.

Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Climate Change in China during the Han Dynasty(1–200 A.D.)

In this study,a 2000-year simulation forced by transient,external forcings is carried out with the Community Earth System Model.The authors investigate the spatiotemporal features of climate change in the Han Dynasty(1–200 A.D.)using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method.The leading EOF mode of the annua mean temperature anomalies shows a uniform variation of temperature over the whole of China,while the second EOF mode indicates opposite variations of temperature between western and eastern China.For the annual mean precipitation anomalies,the first EOF mode indicates a meridional dipole pattern over eastern China,with increased(decreased)precipitation to the south of the Yangtze River and decreased(increased)precipitation to the north.The leading mode of the 850 h Pa winds and sea level pressure in summer exhibits a southwesterly(northeasterly)anomaly over South China,which is associated with a strengthened(reduced)meridional sea level pressure gradient.Compared to reconstructions,the model can capture the majority of features of climate changes in the Han Dynasty,though it underestimates the magnitude.

大兴安岭北部满归泥炭孢粉重建的过去2100年古气候

大兴安岭地处季风气候的尾闾区,是一个研究全球变化的关键区域.但由于该地区古气候代用指标(树轮、孢粉、石笋等)获取比较困难,历史文献也缺乏,使得古气候研究受到了限制.本研究通过大兴安岭北部的漠河县满归镇附近一个厚88 cm的泥炭剖面的孢粉记录,根据831个表土样品的花粉数据和附近90个气象台站30年的地面观测数据,运用现代类比法( Modern Analogue Technique,简称MAT)重建了该地区过去2100年的年均温(Tann)、年降水量(Pann)、 1月均温(Tjan)和7月均温(Tjuly),结果表明Tann和Tjan的波动达到2. 4℃, Tjuly的波动为1. 7℃, Pann波动为28. 2 mm.该地区的气候变化分为3个阶段:阶段Ⅰ(150 BC^850 A.D.)温度和降水量相对较低,年均温比现代30年均值低约0. 5℃;阶段Ⅱ(850~1300 A.D.)以温度升高-降低的波动为特征,升温在1070~1170 A. D.期间最明显,年均温比现代 30 年平均值高 0. 2℃,这一时期相当于欧洲中世纪气候异常期( the Medieval Climate Anomaly,简称MCA);阶段Ⅲ(1300~2000 A.D.)早期(1300~1900 A.D.)以气温较低为特征,这一时期相当于小冰期(the Little Ice Age,简称LIA),年均温比现代30年平均值低0. 8℃,晚期(1900~2000 A.D.)呈现升温的趋势.

创造“感受”还是加固“经验”?——从《舞千年》大型文化剧情舞蹈节目谈起

文章以《舞千年》大型文化剧情舞蹈节目为例,探讨其中部分舞蹈作品在综艺剧情与舞台现场中的审美差异,由此解析经典舞蹈作品独特艺术魅力的来源问题。同时,文章借助德勒兹与加塔利的“情动”概念,探讨舞蹈艺术在“创造感受”方面的独特性,并分析当代偏好“全景知识”的审美惯性,反思艺术作品与文化产品在“创造性”方面的不同逻辑。

论《舞千年》对舞蹈艺术的影视化改编

2021年,一档舞蹈综艺节目《舞千年》引起了舞蹈圈的广泛关注与热议。《舞千年》在对传统舞蹈作品进行影视化的改编中,突破了许多舞蹈艺术的普遍属性。如何在“破”中重组,在“立”中标新立异?作为一种全新的文化现象,有许多值得我们探讨的理论话题。文章从舞蹈作品的叙事性、时空观和共情力三个层面,探讨《舞千年》做出哪些有益的尝试与改变。