Pattern matching method is one of the classic classifications of existing online portfolio selection strategies. This article aims to study the key aspects of this method—measurement of similarity and selection of si...Pattern matching method is one of the classic classifications of existing online portfolio selection strategies. This article aims to study the key aspects of this method—measurement of similarity and selection of similarity sets, and proposes a Portfolio Selection Method based on Pattern Matching with Dual Information of Direction and Distance (PMDI). By studying different combination methods of indicators such as Euclidean distance, Chebyshev distance, and correlation coefficient, important information such as direction and distance in stock historical price information is extracted, thereby filtering out the similarity set required for pattern matching based investment portfolio selection algorithms. A large number of experiments conducted on two datasets of real stock markets have shown that PMDI outperforms other algorithms in balancing income and risk. Therefore, it is suitable for the financial environment in the real world.展开更多
Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whe...Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whenever there is an imperfect correlation between returns risk is reduced by maintaining only a portion of wealth in any asset, or by selecting a portfolio according to expected returns and correlations between returns. The major improvement of the portfolio approaches over prior received theory is the incorporation of 1) the riskiness of an asset and 2) the addition from investing in any asset. The theme of this paper is to discuss how to propose a new mathematical model like that provided by Markowitz, which helps in choosing a nearly perfect portfolio and an efficient input/output. Besides applying this model to reality, the researcher uses game theory, stochastic and linear programming to provide the model proposed and then uses this model to select a perfect portfolio in the Cairo Stock Exchange. The results are fruitful and the researcher considers this model a new contribution to previous models.展开更多
In response to the unprecedented uncertain rare events of the last decade,we derive an optimal portfolio choice problem in a semi-closed form by integrating price diffusion ambiguity,volatility diffusion ambiguity,and...In response to the unprecedented uncertain rare events of the last decade,we derive an optimal portfolio choice problem in a semi-closed form by integrating price diffusion ambiguity,volatility diffusion ambiguity,and jump ambiguity occurring in the traditional stock market and the cryptocurrency market into a single framework.We reach the following conclusions in both markets:first,price diffusion and jump ambiguity mainly determine detection-error probability;second,optimal choice is more significantly affected by price diffusion ambiguity than by jump ambiguity,and trivially affected by volatility diffusion ambiguity.In addition,investors tend to be more aggressive in a stable market than in a volatile one.Next,given a larger volatility jump size,investors tend to increase their portfolio during downward price jumps and decrease it during upward price jumps.Finally,the welfare loss caused by price diffusion ambiguity is more pronounced than that caused by jump ambiguity in an incomplete market.These findings enrich the extant literature on effects of ambiguity on the traditional stock market and the evolving cryptocurrency market.The results have implications for both investors and regulators.展开更多
Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors,although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear.This study examines the long-term benefits of...Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors,although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear.This study examines the long-term benefits of the correlation strategy for portfolios based on the stock market in Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,the Middle East and North Africa,and Latin America from 2000 to 2016.Our strategy is as follows.We develop five portfolios based on the average unconditional correlation between domestic and foreign assets from 2000 to 2016.This yields five regional portfolios based on low to high correlations.In the presence of selected economic and financial conditions,long-term diversification gains for each regional portfolio are evaluated using a panel cointegration-based testing method.Consistent across all portfolios and regions,our key cointegration results suggest that selecting a low-correlated portfolio to maximize diversification gains does not necessarily result in long-term diversification gains.Our empirical method,which also permits the estimation of cointegrating regressions,provides the opportunity to evaluate the impact of oil prices,U.S.stock market fluctuations,and investor sentiments on regional portfolios,as well as to hedge against these fluctuations.Finally,we extend our data to cover the years 2017–2022 and find that our main findings are robust.展开更多
Since Markowitz proposed modern portfolio theory,portfolio optimization has been being a classic topic in financial engineering.Although it is generally accepted that options help to improve the market,there is still ...Since Markowitz proposed modern portfolio theory,portfolio optimization has been being a classic topic in financial engineering.Although it is generally accepted that options help to improve the market,there is still an improvement for the portrayal of their unique properties in portfolio problems.In this paper,an intelligent option portfolio model is developed that allows selling options contracts to earn option fees and considers the high leverage of options in the market.Deep learning methods are used to predict the forward price of the underlying asset,making the model smarter.It can find an optimal option portfolio that maximizes the final wealth among the call and put options with multiple strike prices.We use the duality theory to analyze the marginal contribution of initial assets,risk tolerance limit,and portfolio leverage limit for the final wealth.The leverage limit of the option portfolio has a significant impact on the return.To satisfy the investors with different risk preferences,we also give the conditions for the option portfolio to gain a risk-free return and replace the Conditional Value-at-Risk.Numerical experiments demonstrate that the intelligent option portfolio model obtains a satisfactory out-of-sample return,which is significantly positively correlated with the volatility of the underlying asset and negatively correlated with the forecast error of the forward price.The risk-free option model is effective in achieving the goal of no drawdown and gaining satisfactory returns.Investors can adjust the balance point between returns and risks according to their risk preference.展开更多
Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates,which may result in poor out-of-sample performance.In particular,the estimates may suffer when the number of assets con...Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates,which may result in poor out-of-sample performance.In particular,the estimates may suffer when the number of assets considered is high and the length of the return time series is not sufficiently long.This is precisely the case in the cryptocur-rency market,where there are hundreds of crypto assets that have been traded for a few years.We propose enhancing the mean-variance(MV)model with a pre-selection stage that uses a prototype-based clustering algorithm to reduce the number of crypto assets considered at each investment period.In the pre-selection stage,we run a prototype-based clustering algorithm where the assets are described by variables representing the profit-risk duality.The prototypes of the clustering partition are auto-matically examined and the one that best suits our risk-aversion preference is selected.We then run the MV portfolio optimization with the crypto assets of the selected cluster.The proposed approach is tested for a period of 17 months in the whole cryp-tocurrency market and two selections of the cryptocurrencies with the higher market capitalization(175 and 250 cryptos).We compare the results against three methods applied to the whole market:classic MV,risk parity,and hierarchical risk parity methods.We also compare our results with those from investing in the market index CCI30.The simulation results generally favor our proposal in terms of profit and risk-profit financial indicators.This result reaffirms the convenience of using machine learning methods to guide financial investments in complex and highly-volatile environments such as the cryptocurrency market.展开更多
文摘Pattern matching method is one of the classic classifications of existing online portfolio selection strategies. This article aims to study the key aspects of this method—measurement of similarity and selection of similarity sets, and proposes a Portfolio Selection Method based on Pattern Matching with Dual Information of Direction and Distance (PMDI). By studying different combination methods of indicators such as Euclidean distance, Chebyshev distance, and correlation coefficient, important information such as direction and distance in stock historical price information is extracted, thereby filtering out the similarity set required for pattern matching based investment portfolio selection algorithms. A large number of experiments conducted on two datasets of real stock markets have shown that PMDI outperforms other algorithms in balancing income and risk. Therefore, it is suitable for the financial environment in the real world.
文摘Modern financial theory, commonly known as portfolio theory, provides an analytical framework for the investment decision to be made under uncertainty. It is a well-established proposition in portfolio theory that whenever there is an imperfect correlation between returns risk is reduced by maintaining only a portion of wealth in any asset, or by selecting a portfolio according to expected returns and correlations between returns. The major improvement of the portfolio approaches over prior received theory is the incorporation of 1) the riskiness of an asset and 2) the addition from investing in any asset. The theme of this paper is to discuss how to propose a new mathematical model like that provided by Markowitz, which helps in choosing a nearly perfect portfolio and an efficient input/output. Besides applying this model to reality, the researcher uses game theory, stochastic and linear programming to provide the model proposed and then uses this model to select a perfect portfolio in the Cairo Stock Exchange. The results are fruitful and the researcher considers this model a new contribution to previous models.
基金support from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(22D110913)Jingzhou Yan gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the National Social Science Foundation Youth Project(21CTJ013)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(23NSFSC2796)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Postdoctoral Research Foundation of Sichuan University(Skbsh2202-18).
文摘In response to the unprecedented uncertain rare events of the last decade,we derive an optimal portfolio choice problem in a semi-closed form by integrating price diffusion ambiguity,volatility diffusion ambiguity,and jump ambiguity occurring in the traditional stock market and the cryptocurrency market into a single framework.We reach the following conclusions in both markets:first,price diffusion and jump ambiguity mainly determine detection-error probability;second,optimal choice is more significantly affected by price diffusion ambiguity than by jump ambiguity,and trivially affected by volatility diffusion ambiguity.In addition,investors tend to be more aggressive in a stable market than in a volatile one.Next,given a larger volatility jump size,investors tend to increase their portfolio during downward price jumps and decrease it during upward price jumps.Finally,the welfare loss caused by price diffusion ambiguity is more pronounced than that caused by jump ambiguity in an incomplete market.These findings enrich the extant literature on effects of ambiguity on the traditional stock market and the evolving cryptocurrency market.The results have implications for both investors and regulators.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72104075,71850012,72274056)the National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences Fund of China(No.19AZD014),Natural Science Foundation Project of Hunan Province(No.2022JJ40106)the Hunan University Youth Talent Program.
文摘Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors,although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear.This study examines the long-term benefits of the correlation strategy for portfolios based on the stock market in Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,the Middle East and North Africa,and Latin America from 2000 to 2016.Our strategy is as follows.We develop five portfolios based on the average unconditional correlation between domestic and foreign assets from 2000 to 2016.This yields five regional portfolios based on low to high correlations.In the presence of selected economic and financial conditions,long-term diversification gains for each regional portfolio are evaluated using a panel cointegration-based testing method.Consistent across all portfolios and regions,our key cointegration results suggest that selecting a low-correlated portfolio to maximize diversification gains does not necessarily result in long-term diversification gains.Our empirical method,which also permits the estimation of cointegrating regressions,provides the opportunity to evaluate the impact of oil prices,U.S.stock market fluctuations,and investor sentiments on regional portfolios,as well as to hedge against these fluctuations.Finally,we extend our data to cover the years 2017–2022 and find that our main findings are robust.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11631013,11571271,11971372).
文摘Since Markowitz proposed modern portfolio theory,portfolio optimization has been being a classic topic in financial engineering.Although it is generally accepted that options help to improve the market,there is still an improvement for the portrayal of their unique properties in portfolio problems.In this paper,an intelligent option portfolio model is developed that allows selling options contracts to earn option fees and considers the high leverage of options in the market.Deep learning methods are used to predict the forward price of the underlying asset,making the model smarter.It can find an optimal option portfolio that maximizes the final wealth among the call and put options with multiple strike prices.We use the duality theory to analyze the marginal contribution of initial assets,risk tolerance limit,and portfolio leverage limit for the final wealth.The leverage limit of the option portfolio has a significant impact on the return.To satisfy the investors with different risk preferences,we also give the conditions for the option portfolio to gain a risk-free return and replace the Conditional Value-at-Risk.Numerical experiments demonstrate that the intelligent option portfolio model obtains a satisfactory out-of-sample return,which is significantly positively correlated with the volatility of the underlying asset and negatively correlated with the forecast error of the forward price.The risk-free option model is effective in achieving the goal of no drawdown and gaining satisfactory returns.Investors can adjust the balance point between returns and risks according to their risk preference.
基金supported by the European Union’s H2020 Coordination and Support Actions CA19130 under Grant Agreement Period 2.
文摘Mean-variance portfolio optimization models are sensitive to uncertainty in risk-return estimates,which may result in poor out-of-sample performance.In particular,the estimates may suffer when the number of assets considered is high and the length of the return time series is not sufficiently long.This is precisely the case in the cryptocur-rency market,where there are hundreds of crypto assets that have been traded for a few years.We propose enhancing the mean-variance(MV)model with a pre-selection stage that uses a prototype-based clustering algorithm to reduce the number of crypto assets considered at each investment period.In the pre-selection stage,we run a prototype-based clustering algorithm where the assets are described by variables representing the profit-risk duality.The prototypes of the clustering partition are auto-matically examined and the one that best suits our risk-aversion preference is selected.We then run the MV portfolio optimization with the crypto assets of the selected cluster.The proposed approach is tested for a period of 17 months in the whole cryp-tocurrency market and two selections of the cryptocurrencies with the higher market capitalization(175 and 250 cryptos).We compare the results against three methods applied to the whole market:classic MV,risk parity,and hierarchical risk parity methods.We also compare our results with those from investing in the market index CCI30.The simulation results generally favor our proposal in terms of profit and risk-profit financial indicators.This result reaffirms the convenience of using machine learning methods to guide financial investments in complex and highly-volatile environments such as the cryptocurrency market.
