Impact Damage Testing Study of Shanxi-Beijing Natural Gas Pipeline Based on Decision Tree Rotary Tiller Operation

The North China Plain and the agricultural region are crossed by the Shanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline.Resi-dents in the area use rototillers for planting and harvesting;however,the depth of the rototillers into the ground is greater than the depth of the pipeline,posing a significant threat to the safe operation of the pipeline.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the dynamic response of rotary tillers impacting pipelines to ensure the safe opera-tion of pipelines.This article focuses on the Shanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline,utilizingfinite element simulation software to establish afinite element model for the interaction among the machinery,pipeline,and soil,and ana-lyzing the dynamic response of the pipeline.At the same time,a decision tree model is introduced to classify the damage of pipelines under different working conditions,and the boundary value and importance of each influen-cing factor on pipeline damage are derived.Considering the actual conditions in the hemp yam planting area,targeted management measures have been proposed to ensure the operational safety of the Shanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline in this region.

Decision model and algorithm for traffic rescue resource dispatching on expressway

In order to solve the problems of potential incident rescue on expressway networks, the opportunity cost-based method is used to establish a resource dispatch decision model. The model aims to dispatch the rescue resources from the regional road networks and to obtain the location of the rescue depots and the numbers of service vehicles assigned for the potential incidents. Due to the computational complexity of the decision model, a scene decomposition algorithm is proposed. The algorithm decomposes the dispatch problem from various kinds of resources to a single resource, and determines the original scene of rescue resources based on the rescue requirements and the resource matrix. Finally, a convenient optimal dispatch scheme is obtained by decomposing each original scene and simplifying the objective function. To illustrate the application of the decision model and the algorithm, a case of the expressway network is studied on areas around Nanjing city in China and the results show that the model used and the algorithm proposed are appropriate.

Decision modelling for economic evaluation of liver transplantation

As the gap between a shortage of organs and the im-mense demand for liver grafts persists, every available donor liver needs to be optimized for utility, urgency and equity. To overcome this challenge, decision modelling might allow us to gather evidence from previous studies as well as compare the costs and consequences of alternative options. For public health policy and clinical intervention assessment, it is a potentially powerful tool. The most commonly used types of decision analytical models include decision trees, the Markov model, microsimulation, discrete event simulation and the system dynamic model. Analytic models could support decision makers in the field of liver transplantation when facing specifc problems by synthesizing evidence, comprising all relevant options, generalizing results to other contexts, extending the time horizon and exploring the uncertainty. For modeling studies of economic evaluation for transplantation, understanding the current nature of the disease is crucial, as well as the selection of appropriate modelling techniques. The quality and availability of data is another key element for the selection and development of decision analytical models. In addition, good practice guidelines should be complied, which is important for standardization and comparability between economic outputs.

A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model for bidding purchase

A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model is developed for evaluating bidding plans in a bid- ding purchase process. A group of decision-makers (DMs) first independently assess bidding plans according to their experience and preferences, and these assessments may be expressed as linguistic terms, which are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The resulting decision matrices are then transformed to objective membership grade matrices. The lower bound of satisfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction are used to determine each bidding plan’s supporting, opposing, and neutral objective sets, which together determine the vague value of a bidding plan. Finally, a score function is employed to rank all bidding plans. A new score function based on vague sets is introduced in the model and a novel method is presented for calculating the lower bound of sat- isfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction. In a vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model, different valua- tions for upper and lower bounds of satisfaction usually lead to distinct ranking results. Therefore, it is crucial to effectively contain DMs’ arbitrariness and subjectivity when these values are determined.

Modeling of cognitive framework in time-stressed decision making

An approach for modeling a human cognitive framework in time-stressed decision making is presented. The recognitive and metacognitive processes that represent the cognitive framework are modeled by the colored Petri nets （CPNs）. A structural and behavioral analysis method is adopted to obtain the static and dynamic property used to verify the CPNs model of the cognitive framework. Finally, an example from the command and control radar recognition system is used to evaluate the feasibility and availability of the CPNs model adopted in practical systems.

Research on virtual entity decision model for LVC tactical confrontation of army units

According to the requirements of the live-virtual-constructive(LVC)tactical confrontation(TC)on the virtual entity(VE)decision model of graded combat capability,diversified actions,real-time decision-making,and generalization for the enemy,the confrontation process is modeled as a zero-sum stochastic game(ZSG).By introducing the theory of dynamic relative power potential field,the problem of reward sparsity in the model can be solved.By reward shaping,the problem of credit assignment between agents can be solved.Based on the idea of meta-learning,an extensible multi-agent deep reinforcement learning(EMADRL)framework and solving method is proposed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of model solving.Experiments show that the model meets the requirements well and the algorithm learning efficiency is high.

Role-based Bayesian decision framework for autonomous unmanned systems

In the process of performing a task,autonomous unmanned systems face the problem of scene changing,which requires the ability of real-time decision-making under dynamically changing scenes.Therefore,taking the unmanned system coordinative region control operation as an example,this paper combines knowledge representation with probabilistic decisionmaking and proposes a role-based Bayesian decision model for autonomous unmanned systems that integrates scene cognition and individual preferences.Firstly,according to utility value decision theory,the role-based utility value decision model is proposed to realize task coordination according to the preference of the role that individual is assigned.Then,multi-entity Bayesian network is introduced for situation assessment,by which scenes and their uncertainty related to the operation are semantically described,so that the unmanned systems can conduct situation awareness in a set of scenes with uncertainty.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in a virtual task scenario.This research has important reference value for realizing scene cognition,improving cooperative decision-making ability under dynamic scenes,and achieving swarm level autonomy of unmanned systems.

Discrete decision model and multi-agent simulation of the Liang Zong two-chain hierarchical organization in a complex project

Different from the organization structure of complex projects in Western countries, the Liang Zong hierarchical organization structure of complex projects in China has two different chains, the chief-engineer chain and the general-director chain,to handle the trade-off between technical and management decisions. However, previous works on organization search have mainly focused on the single-chain hierarchical organization in which all decisions are regarded as homogeneous. The heterogeneity and the interdependency between technical decisions and management decisions have been neglected. A two-chain hierarchical organization structure mapped from a real complex project is constructed. Then, a discrete decision model for a Liang Zong two-chain hierarchical organization in an NK model framework is proposed. This model proves that this kind of organization structure can reduce the search space by a large amount and that the search process should reach a final stable state more quickly. For a more complicated decision mechanism, a multi-agent simulation based on the above NK model is used to explore the effect of the two-chain organization structure on the speed, stability, and performance of the search process. The results provide three insights into how, compared with the single-chain hierarchical organization, the two-chain organization can improve the search process: it can reduce the number of iterations efficiently; the search is more stable because the search space is a smoother hill-like fitness landscape; in general, the search performance can be improved.However, when the organization structure is very complicated, the performance of a two-chain organization is inferior to that of a single-chain organization. These findings about the efficiency of the unique Chinese-style organization structure can be used to guide organization design for complex projects.

Impact of Capacity Parameters on Flexible Inventory Control Decision Model

From the mathematical point of view,the flexible inventory control model is proved in the practical problem application and the rationality of the capacity parameter selection and calculation.The purpose is to actively respond to demand fluctuations when there is a demand forecast error or a missing part of the demand information,and to avoid the risk of passive variable demand forecasting to set the immutable inventory capacity.At the same time,the game is controlled by the flexible and variable inventory control strategy and the customer’s willingness to demand.The paper mainly studies the influence of the setting of capacity parameters on the booking-limit decision and its benefits under the control of flexible space with variable total capacity.Through the two trends of capacity increase flexibility and capacity reduction flexibility in the flexible inventory control model,the mathematical performance and marginal utility methods are introduced to change the performance of the booking-limit control decision model under different scenarios.The correlation analysis between the capacity limit level and the return under the optimal Bookinglimit decision,and the above two flexibility parameters are obtained.

The Efficiency Analysis and A Market Decision Model on Equipment Maintenance

This paper presents and analyses the internal and external efficiencies of equipment maintenance, and presents that the objective of maintenance is the maximum external efficiency. It defines generalized reliability degree of equipment and deduces the correspondent calculating method. It overcomes the defect that traditional calculating method of reliability degree has, which only considers the factor of time not function, therefore we establish a market decision model of equipment maintenance based on it. This model can determine the marginal efficiency of maintenance investment and critical value of generalized reliability degree when it reaches break-even point. After combining the equipment maintenance with economical benefit of enterprise and marketing situation of products, an optimal maintenance strategy will be got. It provides a new method for scientific and rational decisions of equipment maintenance.

A Novel Dynamic Decision Model in 2-player Symmetric Repeated Games

Considering the dynamic character of repeated games and Markov process, this paper presented a novel dynamic decision model for symmetric repeated games. In this model, players＇ actions were mapped to a Markov decision process with payoffs, and the Boltzmann distribution was intousluced. Our dynamic model is different from others＇ , we used this dynamic model to study the iterated prisoner＇ s dilemma, and the results show that this decision model can successfully be used in symmetric repeated games and has an ability of adaptive learning.

Development and Application of Decision Support Model for the Performance Optimization of Office Buildings Based on Grasshopper

With the expansion of the office building area,the energy consumption of office buildings is growing.High⁃performance building design contributes to energy saving and the development of green buildings.However,there is a lack of high⁃performance building tools and the workflow is often time⁃consuming.The building performance simulation,multiple objective optimizations,and the decision support model are the new approaches of high⁃performance building design.This paper proposes a newly developed decision support model,a high⁃performance building decision model named HPBuildingDSM,which integrates the building performance simulation,building performance multiple objective optimizations,building performance sampling,and parameter sensitivity analysis to design high⁃performance office buildings.In this research,the HPBuildingDSM was operated to search for the desirable office building design results with low⁃energy and high⁃quality daylighting performances.The simulated results had better daylighting performance and lower energy consumption,whose UDI100-2000 was 37.94%and annual energy consumption performance was 76.28 kWh/(m2·a),indicating a better building performance than the optimized results in the previous case study.

Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

A SOLVABLE ONE-DIMENSIONAL ALLOCATION DECISION MODEL OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES

In the paper, the determinate atlecation decision model and the probabilistic allocation decision model of a kind of renewable resource are separatly studied by means of dynamic programming, and the optimal allocation policy is given under some special conditions.

A Decision Support Model for Predicting Avoidable Re-Hospitalization of Breast Cancer Patients in Kenyatta National Hospital

This study aimed to develop a clinical Decision Support Model (DSM) which is software that provides physicians and other healthcare stakeholders with patient-specific assessments and recommendation in aiding clinical decision-making while discharging Breast cancer patient since the diagnostics and discharge problem is often overwhelming for a clinician to process at the point of care or in urgent situations. The model incorporates Breast cancer patient-specific data that are well-structured having been attained from a prestudy’s administered questionnaires and current evidence-based guidelines. Obtained dataset of the prestudy’s questionnaires is processed via data mining techniques to generate an optimal clinical decision tree classifier model which serves physicians in enhancing their decision-making process while discharging a breast cancer patient on basic cognitive processes involved in medical thinking hence new, better-formed, and superior outcomes. The model also improves the quality of assessments by constructing predictive discharging models from code attributes enabling timely detection of deterioration in the quality of health of a breast cancer patient upon discharge. The outcome of implementing this study is a decision support model that bridges the gap occasioned by less informed clinical Breast cancer discharge that is based merely on experts’ opinions which is insufficiently reinforced for better treatment outcomes. The reinforced discharge decision for better treatment outcomes is through timely deployment of the decision support model to work hand in hand with the expertise in deriving an integrative discharge decision and has been an agreed strategy to eliminate the foreseeable deteriorating quality of health for a discharged breast cancer patients and surging rates of mortality blamed on mistrusted discharge decisions. In this paper, we will discuss breast cancer clinical knowledge, data mining techniques, the classifying model accuracy, and the Python web-based decision support model that predicts avoidable re-hospitalization of a breast cancer patient through an informed clinical discharging support model.

Decision Aid Model for Private-owned Electric Vehicles Participating in Frequency Regulation Ancillary Service Market

To reduce the difficulty and enhance the enthusiasm of private-owned electric vehicles(EVs) in participating in frequency regulation ancillary service market(FRASM), a decision aid model(DAM) is proposed. This paper presents three options for EV participating in FRASM, i. e., the base mode(BM), unidirectional charging mode(UCM), and bidirectional charging/discharging mode(BCDM), based on a reasonable simplification of users' participating willingness. In BM, individual EVs will not be involved in FRASM, and DAM will assist users to set the optimal charging schemes based on travel plans under the time-of-use(TOU) price. UCM and BCDM are two modes in which EVs can take part in FRASM. DAM can assist EV users to create their quotation plan, which includes hourly upper and lower reserve capabilities and regulation market mileage prices. In UCM and BCDM, the difference is that only the charging rate can be adjusted in the UCM, and the EVs in BCDM can not only charge but also discharge if necessary. DAM can estimate the expected revenue of all three modes, and EV users can make the final decision based on their preferences. Simulation results indicate that all the three modes of DAM can reduce the cost, while BCDM can get the maximum expected revenue.

Comparison of machine learning models for gully erosion susceptibility mapping

Gully erosion is a disruptive phenomenon which extensively affects the Iranian territory,especially in the Northern provinces.A number of studies have been recently undertaken to study this process and to predict it over space and ultimately,in a broader national effort,to limit its negative effects on local communities.We focused on the Bastam watershed where 9.3%of its surface is currently affected by gullying.Machine learning algorithms are currently under the magnifying glass across the geomorphological community for their high predictive ability.However,unlike the bivariate statistical models,their structure does not provide intuitive and quantifiable measures of environmental preconditioning factors.To cope with such weakness,we interpret preconditioning causes on the basis of a bivariate approach namely,Index of Entropy.And,we performed the susceptibility mapping procedure by testing three extensions of a decision tree model namely,Alternating Decision Tree(ADTree),Naive-Bayes tree(NBTree),and Logistic Model Tree(LMT).We dichotomized the gully information over space into gully presence/absence conditions,which we further explored in their calibration and validation stages.Being the presence/absence information and associated factors identical,the resulting differences are only due to the algorithmic structures of the three models we chose.Such differences are not significant in terms of performances;in fact,the three models produce outstanding predictive AUC measures(ADTree=0.922;NBTree=0.939;LMT=0.944).However,the associated mapping results depict very different patterns where only the LMT is associated with reasonable susceptibility patterns.This is a strong indication of what model combines best performance and mapping for any natural hazard-oriented application.

Effects of flashing green on driver's stop/go decision at signalized intersection

The primary objective of this work is to explore how drivers react to flashing green at signalized intersections. Through video taping and data procession based on photogrammetry, the operating speeds of vehicles before and after the moment when flashing green started was compared using paired-samples T-test. The critical distances between go and stop decisions was defined through cumulative percentage curve. The boundary of dilemma zone was determined by comparing stop distance and travel distance.Amber-running violation was analyzed on the basis of the travel time to the stop line. And finally, a logistic model for stop and go decisions was constructed. The results shows that the stopping ratios of the first vehicles of west-bound and east-bound approaches are 41.3% and 39.8%, respectively; the amber-light running violation ratios of two approaches are 31.6% and 25.4%, respectively;the operating speed growth ratios of first vehicles selecting to cross intersection after the moment when flashing green started are26.7% and 17.7%, respectively; and the critical distances are 48 m and 46 m, respectively, which are close to 44 m, the boundary of dilemma zone. The developed decision models demonstrate that the probability of go decision is higher when the distance from the stop line is shorter or operating speed is higher. This indicates that flashing green is an effective way to enhance intersection safety,but it should work together with a strict enforcement. In addition, traffic signs near critical distance and reasonable speed limitation are also beneficial to the safety of intersections.

Microscopic dynamic simulation model for pedestrian at signalized intersection

Pedestrian's road-crossing model is the key part of micro-simulation for mixed traffic at signalized intersection.To reproduce the crossing behavior of pedestrians,the microscopic behaviors of the pedestrians passing through the crosswalk at signalized intersection were analyzed.A pedestrian's decision making model based on gap acceptance theory was proposed.Based on the field data at three typical intersections in Beijing,China,the critical gaps and lags of pedestrians were calibrated.In addition,considering pedestrian's required space,a modification of the social force model that consists of a self-deceleration mechanism prevents a simulated pedestrian from continuously pushing over other pedestrians,making the simulation more realistic.After the simple change,the modified social force model is able to reproduce the fundamental diagram of pedestrian flows for densities less than 3.5 m-2 as reported in the literature.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.