This paper investigates dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for two sub-regions of the Southeast United States. A sui...This paper investigates dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for two sub-regions of the Southeast United States. A suite of four statistical measures were used to assess model skill and biases were presented in hindcasting daily minimum and maximum temperature and mean precipitation during a historical reference period, 1970-1999. Most models demonstrated high skill for temperature during the historical period. Two outliers included two RCMs run using the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model as their lateral boundary conditions;these models suffered from a cold maximum temperature bias. Improvement with GFDL-based projections of maximum temperature was noted from May through November when they ran with observed seasurface conditions (GFDL-timeslice), particularly for the east sub-region. Precipitation skill proved mixed-relatively high when measured using a probability density function overlap measurement or the index of agreement, but relatively low when measured with root-mean square error or mean absolute error, because several models overestimated the frequency of extreme precipitation events.展开更多
BACKGROUND Vestibular dysfunction(VH)is a common concomitant symptom of late peri-pheral vestibular lesions,which can be trauma,poisoning,infection,heredity,and neurodegeneration,but about 50%of the causes are unknown...BACKGROUND Vestibular dysfunction(VH)is a common concomitant symptom of late peri-pheral vestibular lesions,which can be trauma,poisoning,infection,heredity,and neurodegeneration,but about 50%of the causes are unknown.The study uses the information-motivation-behavioral skills(IMB)model for health education,effectively improve the quality of life,increase their self-confidence,reduce anxiety and depression,and effectively improve the psychological state of patients.AIM To explore the effect of health education based on the IMB model on the degree of vertigo,disability,anxiety and depression in patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction.METHODS The clinical data of 80 patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the retrospective research objects,and they were divided into the control group and the observation group with 40 cases in each group according to different nursing methods.Among them,the control group was given routine nursing health education and guidance,and the observation group was given health education and guidance based on the IMB model.The changes in self-efficacy,anxiety and depression,and quality of life of patients with unilateral VH were compared between the two groups.RESULTS There was no significant difference in General Self-Efficacy Scale(GSES)scale scores between the two groups of patients before nursing(P>0.05),which was comparable;after nursing,the GSES scale scores of the two groups were higher than those before nursing.The nursing group was higher than the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).There was no significant difference in the scores of Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale(HADS)and anxiety and depression subscales between the two groups before nursing(P>0.05).After nursing,the HADS score,anxiety,and depression subscale scores of the two groups of patients were lower than those before nursing,and the nursing group was lower than the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).After nursing,the Dizziness Handicap Inventory(DHI)scale and DHI-P,DHI-E and DHI-F scores in the two groups were decreased,and the scores in the nursing group were lower than those in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Health education based on the IMB model can effectively improve patients'quality of life,increase self-efficacy of patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction,enhance patients'confidence,enable patients to resume normal work and life as soon as possible,reduce patients'anxiety and depression,and effectively improve patients'psychological status.展开更多
As the core content of pragmatic translation teaching research,pragmatic translation skill is closely correlated with translation technique and operation field.Viewed from the current English teaching situation in col...As the core content of pragmatic translation teaching research,pragmatic translation skill is closely correlated with translation technique and operation field.Viewed from the current English teaching situation in colleges and universities,translation skill is not cultivated as an independent language competence.Moreover,its research is insufficient.On account of this,the author first gives an introduction to pragmatic translation skill and pragmatic translation skill structure model in this paper.On this basis,the author also analyzes the application of pragmatic translation skill structure model in translation teaching.展开更多
Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM ski...Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization(PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An effi cient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the effi ciency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fi t of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confi dence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientifi c and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.展开更多
In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors...In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.展开更多
Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November...Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.展开更多
文摘This paper investigates dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for two sub-regions of the Southeast United States. A suite of four statistical measures were used to assess model skill and biases were presented in hindcasting daily minimum and maximum temperature and mean precipitation during a historical reference period, 1970-1999. Most models demonstrated high skill for temperature during the historical period. Two outliers included two RCMs run using the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model as their lateral boundary conditions;these models suffered from a cold maximum temperature bias. Improvement with GFDL-based projections of maximum temperature was noted from May through November when they ran with observed seasurface conditions (GFDL-timeslice), particularly for the east sub-region. Precipitation skill proved mixed-relatively high when measured using a probability density function overlap measurement or the index of agreement, but relatively low when measured with root-mean square error or mean absolute error, because several models overestimated the frequency of extreme precipitation events.
文摘BACKGROUND Vestibular dysfunction(VH)is a common concomitant symptom of late peri-pheral vestibular lesions,which can be trauma,poisoning,infection,heredity,and neurodegeneration,but about 50%of the causes are unknown.The study uses the information-motivation-behavioral skills(IMB)model for health education,effectively improve the quality of life,increase their self-confidence,reduce anxiety and depression,and effectively improve the psychological state of patients.AIM To explore the effect of health education based on the IMB model on the degree of vertigo,disability,anxiety and depression in patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction.METHODS The clinical data of 80 patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the retrospective research objects,and they were divided into the control group and the observation group with 40 cases in each group according to different nursing methods.Among them,the control group was given routine nursing health education and guidance,and the observation group was given health education and guidance based on the IMB model.The changes in self-efficacy,anxiety and depression,and quality of life of patients with unilateral VH were compared between the two groups.RESULTS There was no significant difference in General Self-Efficacy Scale(GSES)scale scores between the two groups of patients before nursing(P>0.05),which was comparable;after nursing,the GSES scale scores of the two groups were higher than those before nursing.The nursing group was higher than the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).There was no significant difference in the scores of Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale(HADS)and anxiety and depression subscales between the two groups before nursing(P>0.05).After nursing,the HADS score,anxiety,and depression subscale scores of the two groups of patients were lower than those before nursing,and the nursing group was lower than the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).After nursing,the Dizziness Handicap Inventory(DHI)scale and DHI-P,DHI-E and DHI-F scores in the two groups were decreased,and the scores in the nursing group were lower than those in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Health education based on the IMB model can effectively improve patients'quality of life,increase self-efficacy of patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction,enhance patients'confidence,enable patients to resume normal work and life as soon as possible,reduce patients'anxiety and depression,and effectively improve patients'psychological status.
文摘As the core content of pragmatic translation teaching research,pragmatic translation skill is closely correlated with translation technique and operation field.Viewed from the current English teaching situation in colleges and universities,translation skill is not cultivated as an independent language competence.Moreover,its research is insufficient.On account of this,the author first gives an introduction to pragmatic translation skill and pragmatic translation skill structure model in this paper.On this basis,the author also analyzes the application of pragmatic translation skill structure model in translation teaching.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41206111,41206112)
文摘Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization(PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An effi cient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the effi ciency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fi t of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confi dence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientifi c and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No.2015CB453200)
文摘In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.
文摘Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.
