＂Decoupling＂ refers to the divergence of business cycles among different countries, while ＂re-coupling＂ corresponds to the convergence or the synchronization of business cycles among different countries. The decou...＂Decoupling＂ refers to the divergence of business cycles among different countries, while ＂re-coupling＂ corresponds to the convergence or the synchronization of business cycles among different countries. The decoupling debate is popular in the field of economics, especially after global financial crisis. As trade integration increased among Asian countries, business cycle synchronization among these countries was expected to increase through trade transmission. The aim of this study is to discover whether there has been decoupling or convergence of business cycles through various trade channels. However, theoretically, increased trade can lead to business cycle synchronization either rising or falling. Inter-industry trade resulting in higher specification will induce less synchronized business cycles, while intra-industry trade could lead to increased business cycle synchronization. Thus, it is important to distinguish between intra- and inter-industry trade flows. Both correlation and dynamic factor models are utilized to study the evolution of global business cycle linkages. Results indicate that the world factor has become less important in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations from sub-period 1961-1984 to sub-period 1985-2007, while regional factors do not play an important role in explaining aggregate volatility, with the expectation of consumption. Overall, the explanatory power of country factors increases. Domestic consumption and domestic investment variances are more driven by country and idiosyncratic factors than by the world factor, contrary to the output growth fluctuations. Regional factors and country factors also play a more prominent role in explaining gross import fluctuations than in explaining gross exports. Results cast doubt on the strong forms of both the decoupling and the re-coupling hypothesis.展开更多
According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric m...According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.展开更多
Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalizatio...Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.展开更多
With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the e...With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the evolution of China's inter-provincial trade from1987 to 2007.This paper reaches the following conclusions.First,China's inter-provincial trade has sustained a period of rapid growth.In 2007,the total volume of inter-provincial trade was twice the amount of international trade,with the eastern region accounting for the majority of the inter-provincial trade volume.GDP may have a greater effect on interprovincial trade than geographic distance does.Second,inter-provincial trade maintains a high level of concentration and overlaps with the high concentration of GDP.Third,the inter-provincial trade dependence of Chinese provinces tends to increase,an indication of the growing domestic market integration.Moreover,the eastern region's dependence on inter-provincial trade is higher than the central and western regions'.Fourth,the share of inter-provincial trade in the overall external trade of Chinese provinces has a declining tendency,which indicates a slower process of China's domestic market integration compared with international market integration.However,in terms of proportion,the external trade of most Chinese provinces is still dominated by inter-provincial trade.Fifth,most provinces with longstanding inter-provincial trade deficits are in the central and western regions.展开更多
Empirical studies on the effects of China-African economic relations on energy intensity in Africa are scarce.To fill the gap in the literature,this study investigates the technology spillover effects of the China-Afr...Empirical studies on the effects of China-African economic relations on energy intensity in Africa are scarce.To fill the gap in the literature,this study investigates the technology spillover effects of the China-Africa trade and investment relations on energy intensity.It uses both linear and nonlinear dynamic panel estimation methods for 42 African countries from 2003 to 2015.The results show that China's technology spillover through imports significantly reduces energy intensity in Africa.The findings are consistent across specifications and sample groups.Moreover,the technology spillover coming from foreign direct investment(FDI)improves energy intensity,particularly in lower-middle-income African countries.The dynamic threshold estimation results show that countries'absorptive ability is important for technology spillover effects of FDI and imports on energy intensity.The results suggest that countries'absorptive capacity should be increased to maximize the benefits of trade and investment technology spillovers.展开更多
文摘＂Decoupling＂ refers to the divergence of business cycles among different countries, while ＂re-coupling＂ corresponds to the convergence or the synchronization of business cycles among different countries. The decoupling debate is popular in the field of economics, especially after global financial crisis. As trade integration increased among Asian countries, business cycle synchronization among these countries was expected to increase through trade transmission. The aim of this study is to discover whether there has been decoupling or convergence of business cycles through various trade channels. However, theoretically, increased trade can lead to business cycle synchronization either rising or falling. Inter-industry trade resulting in higher specification will induce less synchronized business cycles, while intra-industry trade could lead to increased business cycle synchronization. Thus, it is important to distinguish between intra- and inter-industry trade flows. Both correlation and dynamic factor models are utilized to study the evolution of global business cycle linkages. Results indicate that the world factor has become less important in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations from sub-period 1961-1984 to sub-period 1985-2007, while regional factors do not play an important role in explaining aggregate volatility, with the expectation of consumption. Overall, the explanatory power of country factors increases. Domestic consumption and domestic investment variances are more driven by country and idiosyncratic factors than by the world factor, contrary to the output growth fluctuations. Regional factors and country factors also play a more prominent role in explaining gross import fluctuations than in explaining gross exports. Results cast doubt on the strong forms of both the decoupling and the re-coupling hypothesis.
文摘According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.
文摘Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.
基金National Social Science Foundation for the Youth Scholars of China:The Internal Origins of Chinese External Imbalances(Grant No.12 CJL055)Educational Development Foundation of Department of International Economic and Trade,Xiamen University:Research on the Effect of Outsourcing on China's Economy(Grant No.201112111)Humanities and Social Science Project for the Youth Scholars of the Ministry of Education:Research on China's Current Account Adjustment Mode Under the Public Finance(Grant No.11YJC790281)
文摘With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the evolution of China's inter-provincial trade from1987 to 2007.This paper reaches the following conclusions.First,China's inter-provincial trade has sustained a period of rapid growth.In 2007,the total volume of inter-provincial trade was twice the amount of international trade,with the eastern region accounting for the majority of the inter-provincial trade volume.GDP may have a greater effect on interprovincial trade than geographic distance does.Second,inter-provincial trade maintains a high level of concentration and overlaps with the high concentration of GDP.Third,the inter-provincial trade dependence of Chinese provinces tends to increase,an indication of the growing domestic market integration.Moreover,the eastern region's dependence on inter-provincial trade is higher than the central and western regions'.Fourth,the share of inter-provincial trade in the overall external trade of Chinese provinces has a declining tendency,which indicates a slower process of China's domestic market integration compared with international market integration.However,in terms of proportion,the external trade of most Chinese provinces is still dominated by inter-provincial trade.Fifth,most provinces with longstanding inter-provincial trade deficits are in the central and western regions.
文摘Empirical studies on the effects of China-African economic relations on energy intensity in Africa are scarce.To fill the gap in the literature,this study investigates the technology spillover effects of the China-Africa trade and investment relations on energy intensity.It uses both linear and nonlinear dynamic panel estimation methods for 42 African countries from 2003 to 2015.The results show that China's technology spillover through imports significantly reduces energy intensity in Africa.The findings are consistent across specifications and sample groups.Moreover,the technology spillover coming from foreign direct investment(FDI)improves energy intensity,particularly in lower-middle-income African countries.The dynamic threshold estimation results show that countries'absorptive ability is important for technology spillover effects of FDI and imports on energy intensity.The results suggest that countries'absorptive capacity should be increased to maximize the benefits of trade and investment technology spillovers.
