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Geostatistical seismic inversion and 3D modelling of metric flow units,porosity and permeability in Brazilian presalt reservoir 被引量:1
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作者 Rodrigo Penna Wagner Moreira Lupinacci 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第3期1699-1718,共20页
Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation ... Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow. 展开更多
关键词 Flowunits Geostatistical inversion Presalt reservoir 3D reservoir modelling Petrophysical modelling
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Challenges in predictive modelling of chronic kidney disease:A narrative review
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作者 Sukhanshi Khandpur Prabhaker Mishra +1 位作者 Shambhavi Mishra Swasti Tiwari 《World Journal of Nephrology》 2024年第3期26-33,共8页
The exponential rise in the burden of chronic kidney disease(CKD)worldwide has put enormous pressure on the economy.Predictive modeling of CKD can ease this burden by predicting the future disease occurrence ahead of ... The exponential rise in the burden of chronic kidney disease(CKD)worldwide has put enormous pressure on the economy.Predictive modeling of CKD can ease this burden by predicting the future disease occurrence ahead of its onset.There are various regression methods for predictive modeling based on the distribution of the outcome variable.However,the accuracy of the predictive model depends on how well the model is developed by taking into account the goodness of fit,choice of covariates,handling of covariates measured on a continuous scale,handling of categorical covariates,and number of outcome events per predictor parameter or sample size.Optimal performance of a predictive model on an independent cohort is desired.However,there are several challenges in the predictive modeling of CKD.Disease-specific methodological challenges hinder the development of a predictive model that is cost-effective and universally applicable to predict CKD onset.In this review,we discuss the advantages and challenges of various regression models available for predictive modeling and highlight those best for future CKD prediction. 展开更多
关键词 Chronic kidney disease Predictive modelling Regression Statistical modelling METHODOLOGY
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A practical guideline for univariate meta-analytic structural equation modelling
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作者 Zhen-Wei Dai Qiu-Chen Yuan 《Medical Data Mining》 2024年第4期28-33,共6页
Background:Meta-analysis is a quantitative approach that systematically integrates results from previous research to draw conclusions.Structural equation modelling is a statistical method that integrates factor analys... Background:Meta-analysis is a quantitative approach that systematically integrates results from previous research to draw conclusions.Structural equation modelling is a statistical method that integrates factor analysis and path analysis.Meta-analytic structural equation modeling(MASEM)combines meta-analysis and structural equation modeling.It allows researchers to explain relationships among a group of variables across multiple studies.Methods:We used a simulated dataset to conduct a univariate MASEM analysis,using Comprehensive Meta Analysis 3.3,Analysis of Moment Structures 24.0 software.Results:Despite the lack of concise literature on the methodology,our study provided a practical step-by-step guide on univariate MASEM.Conclusion:Researchers can employ MASEM analysis in applicable fields based on the description,principles,and practices expressed in this study and our previous publications mentioned in this study. 展开更多
关键词 META-ANALYSIS structural equation modelling meta-analytic structural equation modelling STATISTICS
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Investigation of Maxima Assumptions in Modelling Tropical Cyclone- Induced Hazards in the South China Sea
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作者 WEN Ze-guo WANG Fu-ming +1 位作者 WAN Jing YANG Fan 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第3期491-504,共14页
The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption ass... The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption assumes thatjoint N-year extreme wind and wave events can be independently estimated and subsequently combined. The secondone assumes peak wind and waves can be modelled as occurring simultaneously during a tropical cyclone (TC) event.To better understand the potential TC activity, a set of 10000 years synthetic TC events are generated. The wind fieldmodel and the Mike 21 spectral wave model are employed to model the TC-induced hazards. Subsequently, theeffect of the assumptions is evaluated by analyzing the peak structural response of both monopile and semisubmersibleoffshore wind turbines during TC events. The results demonstrate that the examined assumptions are generally accurate.By assessing the implications of these assumptions, valuable insights are obtained, which can inform andimprove the modelling of TC-induced hazards in the SCS region. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone numerical wave modelling hazards offshore wind turbines structural response
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Numerical analysis of high‑speed railway slab tracks using calibrated and validated 3D time‑domain modelling
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作者 A.F.Esen O.Laghrouche +4 位作者 P.K.Woodward D.Medina‑Pineda Q.Corbisez J.Y.Shih D.P.Connolly 《Railway Engineering Science》 EI 2024年第1期36-58,共23页
Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a ... Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a novel slab trackform for high-speed railways is investigated using three-dimensional finite element modelling in Abaqus.It is then compared to the performance of a ballasted track.First,slab and ballasted track models are developed to replicate the full-scale testing of track sections.Once the models are calibrated with the experimental results,the novel slab model is developed and compared against the calibrated slab track results.The slab and ballasted track models are then extended to create linear dynamic models,considering the track geodynamics,and simulating train passages at various speeds,for which the Ledsgard documented case was used to validate the models.Trains travelling at low and high speeds are analysed to investigate the track deflections and the wave propagation in the soil,considering the issues associated with critical speeds.Various train loading methods are discussed,and the most practical approach is retained and described.Moreover,correlations are made between the geotechnical parameters of modern high-speed rail and conventional standards.It is found that considering the same ground condition,the slab track deflections are considerably smaller than those of the ballasted track at high speeds,while they show similar behaviour at low speeds. 展开更多
关键词 High-speed railways Slab track New ballastless track Ballasted track Critical speeds Finite element modelling Calibration of numerical models
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Assessment of sediment connectivity using modelling and field-based approaches in the Slavíč River catchment(MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts,Czech Republic)
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作者 MACUROVÁ Tereza ŠKARPICH Václav 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期734-753,共20页
Mountain streams act as conveyors of sediments within the river continuum,where the physical transport of sediments between river reaches through the catchment or between individual parts(e.g.,between hillslopes and c... Mountain streams act as conveyors of sediments within the river continuum,where the physical transport of sediments between river reaches through the catchment or between individual parts(e.g.,between hillslopes and channels)of the catchment is assumed.This study focused on sediment connectivity analysis in the SlavíčRiver catchment in the MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts in the eastern part of the Czech Republic.The connectivity index and connectivity index target modelling were combined with an analysis of anthropogenic interventions.Additionally,field mapping,grain size of bed sediments and stream power analysis were used to obtain information about connectivity in the catchment.Based on the analysis and obtained results,terrain topography is the current main driving factor affecting the connectivity of sediment movement in the SlavíčRiver catchment.However,the modelling provided valuable information about high sediment connectivity despite different recent land use conditions(highly forested area of the catchment)than those in historical times from the 16th to 19th centuries when the SlavíčRiver catchment was highly deforested and sediment connectivity was probably higher.The analysis of anthropogenic interventions,field mapping,grain size of bed sediments and stream power analysis revealed more deceleration of sediment movement through the catchment,decreased sediment connectivity with bed erosion,and gradual river channel process transformation in some reaches.Field mapping has identified various natural formations and human-induced changes impacting the longitudinal and lateral connectivity in the SlavíčRiver.For instance,embankments along 48%of the river's length,both on the right and left banks,significantly hinder lateral sediment supply to the channel.Stream power index analysis indicates increased energy levels in the flowing water in the river's upper reaches(up to 404.8 W m^(-2)).This high energy is also observed in certain downstream sections(up to 337.6 W m^(-2)),where it is influenced by human activities.These conditions lead to intensified erosion processes,playing a crucial role in sediment connectivity.Similar observations were described in recent studies that pointed out the long-term human interventions on many streams draining European mountains,where a decrease in sediment connectivity in these streams is linked with sediment deficits and the transformation of processes forming channels. 展开更多
关键词 Mountain stream Connectivity analysis modelling Grain size analysis SlavíčRiver MoravskoslezskéBeskydy Mts
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A framework for dynamic modelling of railway track switches considering the switch blades,actuators and control systems
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作者 Saikat Dutta Tim Harrison +2 位作者 Christopher Ward Roger Dixon Phil Winship 《Railway Engineering Science》 EI 2024年第2期162-176,共15页
The main contribution of this paper is the development and demonstration of a novel methodology that can be followed to develop a simulation twin of a railway track switch system to test the functionality in a digital... The main contribution of this paper is the development and demonstration of a novel methodology that can be followed to develop a simulation twin of a railway track switch system to test the functionality in a digital environment.This is important because,globally,railway track switches are used to allow trains to change routes;they are a key part of all railway networks.However,because track switches are single points of failure and safety-critical,their inability to operate correctly can cause significant delays and concomitant costs.In order to better understand the dynamic behaviour of switches during operation,this paper has developed a full simulation twin of a complete track switch system.The approach fuses finite element for the rail bending and motion,with physics-based models of the electromechanical actuator system and the control system.Hence,it provides researchers and engineers the opportunity to explore and understand the design space around the dynamic operation of new switches and switch machines before they are built.This is useful for looking at the modification or monitoring of existing switches,and it becomes even more important when new switch concepts are being considered and evaluated.The simulation is capable of running in real time or faster meaning designs can be iterated and checked interactively.The paper describes the modelling approach,demonstrates the methodology by developing the system model for a novel“REPOINT”switch system,and evaluates the system level performance against the dynamic performance requirements for the switch.In the context of that case study,it is found that the proposed new actuation system as designed can meet(and exceed)the system performance requirements,and that the fault tolerance built into the actuation ensures continued operation after a single actuator failure. 展开更多
关键词 Railway track switch Mathematical modelling Redundant actuation Finite element analysis
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Key Issues for Modelling, Operation, Management and Diagnosis of Lithium Batteries: Current States and Prospects
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作者 Bo Yang Yucun Qian +2 位作者 Jianzhong Xu Yaxing Ren Yixuan Chen 《Energy Engineering》 EI 2024年第8期2085-2091,共7页
1 Introduction.With the continuous growth of the global population,the energy demand continues to increase.However,due to the dominance of fossil fuels in global energy and fossil fuels are non-renewable,it has led to... 1 Introduction.With the continuous growth of the global population,the energy demand continues to increase.However,due to the dominance of fossil fuels in global energy and fossil fuels are non-renewable,it has led to the global energy crisis[1].Besides,the use of fossil fuels will generate a mass of air pollutants(e.g.,carbon dioxide,sulfur dioxide,etc.),which will cause serious environmental pollution,climate change[2],etc.To resolve the aforementioned issues,countries around the world have implemented a variety of measures hoping to fundamentally adjust the global energy structure and achieve sustainable development.Thereinto,“Paris Agreement”reached in 2015 under the framework of“United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”aims to control the increase in the average temperature of the globe to within 2°C below preindustrial levels,and thereafter to peak global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible,continuously decreasing thereafter[3].United Kingdom plans to reduce the average exhaust emissions of“new cars”to approximately 50–70 g/km by 20230,which is roughly half of what it is now[4].In addition,China proposed a plan at“United Nations General Assembly”in 2020 to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.It is a fact that the whole world is committed to changing the current energy structure,protecting the Earth’s ecology,and achieving global sustainable development[5]. 展开更多
关键词 Lithium batteries optimization operation modelling state estimation life prediction fault diagnosis
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Utility of fluid inclusion paleo-temperature in petroleum system modelling:A case study from western offshore,India
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作者 V.Nandakumar S.Shivapriya Silpa Thankan 《Energy Geoscience》 EI 2024年第2期101-119,共19页
The paleo-temperature(Th)data from fluid inclusions are utilized for thermal history modelling using PetroMod software.Generally,bottom hole temperature(BHT)and vitrinite reflectance(Ro)measurements are widely used in... The paleo-temperature(Th)data from fluid inclusions are utilized for thermal history modelling using PetroMod software.Generally,bottom hole temperature(BHT)and vitrinite reflectance(Ro)measurements are widely used in petroleum system modelling(PSM)in the oil industry for calibration purposes.Th representing the minimum temperature of fluid entrapment estimated from fluid-inclusion study provides extra support to build the thermal models for PSM.Fluid inclusion parameters along with Rock-Eval pyrolysis analysis have been used to predict the maturity of oil in terms of API gravity as well as the maturity of source rocks respectively.Two exploratory wells RV-1(Mumbai Offshore Basin)and KK4C-A-1(Kerala-Konkan Offshore Basin),India were examined and the T_(h)from most of the fluid inclusions of wells RV-1 and KK4C-A-1 fell in the oil window range of 60-140℃suggesting thermal conditions favourable for oil generation in both of the wells.T_(h)of coeval aqueous inclusions along with the Hydrocarbon Fluid inclusions(HCFIs)was used to calibrate PSM.Vital parameters show that source rocks of well RV-1 are mature and that of well KK4C-A-1 are immature.Two sets of PSM are created in terms of generation and expulsion for the dry wells RV-1 and KK4C-A-1 and calibrated each well using fluid inclusion Th and BHT.From the fluid inclusion analysis method,it is evident that hydrocarbon generation happened in both wells and the paleo-temperature indicates that the formations of both wells were subjected to temperatures in the oil window range,even though it was designated as dry wells in the present scenario.The present study highlights the application of fluid inclusion paleo-temperature(Th)during calibration instead of commonly used methods.We could obtain desirable and accurate data output from PSM using T_(h) calibration. 展开更多
关键词 Paleo-temperature(T_(h)) Hydrocarbon fluid inclusion Petroleum system modelling Petroleum generation and expulsion Western offshore basin
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Numerical Modelling of Coupled Heat and Mass Transfer in Porous Materials: Application to Cinder Block Bricks
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作者 Benjamin Kiema Ousmane Coulibaly +1 位作者 Xavier Chesneau Belkacem Zeghmati 《Open Journal of Applied Sciences》 2024年第9期2360-2373,共14页
In this work, we present numerical modelling of coupled heat and mass transfer within porous materials. Our study focuses on cinder block bricks generally used in building construction. The material is assumed to be p... In this work, we present numerical modelling of coupled heat and mass transfer within porous materials. Our study focuses on cinder block bricks generally used in building construction. The material is assumed to be placed in air. Moisture content and temperature have been chosen as the main transfer drivers and the equations governing these transfer drivers are based on the Luikov model. These equations are solved by an implicit finite difference scheme. A Fortran code associated with the Thomas algorithm was used to solve the equations. The results show that heat and mass transfer depend on the temperature of the air in contact with the material. As this air temperature rises, the temperature within the material increases, and more rapidly at the material surface. Also, thermal conductivity plays a very important role in the thermal conduction of building materials and influences heat and mass transfer in these materials. Materials with higher thermal conductivity diffuse more heat. 展开更多
关键词 Numerical modelling Coupled Transfer Building Materials Luikov Model Finite Differences
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Contribution to the Full 3D Finite Element Modelling of a Hybrid Stepping Motor with and without Current in the Coils
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作者 Belemdara Dingamadji Hilaire Mbaïnaïbeye Jérôme Guidkaya Golam 《Journal of Electromagnetic Analysis and Applications》 2024年第2期11-23,共13页
The paper presents our contribution to the full 3D finite element modelling of a hybrid stepping motor using COMSOL Multiphysics software. This type of four-phase motor has a permanent magnet interposed between the tw... The paper presents our contribution to the full 3D finite element modelling of a hybrid stepping motor using COMSOL Multiphysics software. This type of four-phase motor has a permanent magnet interposed between the two identical and coaxial half stators. The calculation of the field with or without current in the windings (respectively with or without permanent magnet) is done using a mixed formulation with strong coupling. In addition, the local high saturation of the ferromagnetic material and the radial and axial components of the magnetic flux are taken into account. The results obtained make it possible to clearly observe, as a function of the intensity of the bus current or the remanent induction, the saturation zones, the lines, the orientations and the magnetic flux densities. 3D finite element modelling provide more accurate numerical data on the magnetic field through multiphysics analysis. This analysis considers the actual operating conditions and leads to the design of an optimized machine structure, with or without current in the windings and/or permanent magnet. 展开更多
关键词 modelling 3D Finite Elements Magnetic Flux Hybrid Stepping Motor
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Implication of community-level ecophysiological parameterization to modelling ecosystem productivity:a case study across nine contrasting forest sites in eastern China 被引量:1
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作者 Minzhe Fang Changjin Cheng +2 位作者 Nianpeng He Guoxin Si Osbert Jianxin Sun 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第1期1-11,共11页
Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations... Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods. 展开更多
关键词 BIOME-BGC Community traits Forest Ecosystems Model parameterization
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Experiment and constitutive modelling of creep deformation in the frozen silt-concrete interface
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作者 HE Fei LIU Qingquan +4 位作者 LEI Wanyu WANG Xu MAO Erqing LI Sheng CHEN Hangjie 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第9期3172-3185,共14页
To ensure the long-term safety and stability of bridge pile foundations in permafrost regions,it is necessary to investigate the rheological effects on the pile tip and pile side bearing capacities.The creep character... To ensure the long-term safety and stability of bridge pile foundations in permafrost regions,it is necessary to investigate the rheological effects on the pile tip and pile side bearing capacities.The creep characteristics of the pile-frozen soil interface are critical for determining the long-term stability of permafrost pile foundations.This study utilized a self-developed large stress-controlled shear apparatus to investigate the shear creep characteristics of the frozen silt-concrete interface,and examined the influence of freezing temperatures(−1,−2,and−5°C),contact surface roughness(0,0.60,0.75,and 1.15 mm),normal stress(50,100,and 150 kPa),and shear stress on the creep characteristics of the contact surface.By incorporating the contact surface’s creep behavior and development trends,we established a creep constitutive model for the frozen silt-concrete interface based on the Nishihara model,introducing nonlinear elements and a damage factor.The results revealed significant creep effects on the frozen silt-concrete interface under constant load,with creep displacement at approximately 2-15 times the instantaneous displacement and a failure creep displacement ranging from 6 to 8 mm.Under different experimental conditions,the creep characteristics of the frozen silt-concrete interface varied.A larger roughness,lower freezing temperatures,and higher normal stresses resulted in a longer sample attenuation creep time,a lower steady-state creep rate,higher long-term creep strength,and stronger creep stability.Building upon the Nishihara model,we considered the influence of shear stress and time on the viscoelastic viscosity coefficient and introduced a damage factor to the viscoplasticity.The improved model effectively described the entire creep process of the frozen silt-concrete interface.The results provide theoretical support for the interaction between pile and soil in permafrost regions. 展开更多
关键词 Creep characteristics Contact surface Frozen silt Constitutive model Freezing temperature
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Modelling analysis embodies drastic transition among global potential natural vegetations in face of changing climate
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作者 Zhengchao Ren Lei Liu +1 位作者 Fang Yin Xiaoni Liu 《Forest Ecosystems》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期184-192,共9页
Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional pr... Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional processes,and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation,particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming.In this study,we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV,analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance,and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations.To achieve this,we utilize meteorological data,mainly temperature and precipitation,from six phases:the Last Inter-Glacial(LIG),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid Holocene(MH),the Present Day(PD),2030(20212040)and 2090(2081–2100),and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification sy–stem(CSCS)for global PNV classification.We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups(forest,shrubland,savanna,grassland and tundra)generally align with their respective ecotopes,although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation.Notably,we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance.The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation,although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group.Indeed,the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate.The spatio-temporal distributions,mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate,as revealed in this study,can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide. 展开更多
关键词 Potential natural vegetation Global warming Vegetation classification Predicted model CSCS
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Prospect Theory Based Individual Irrationality Modelling and Behavior Inducement in Pandemic Control
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作者 Wenxiang Dong H.Vicky Zhao 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2024年第7期139-170,共32页
Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Mean... Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior. 展开更多
关键词 Disease spread behavior model IRRATIONALITY prospect theory
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Ecosystem service multifunctionality of mixed conifer-broad-leaved forests under climate change and forest management based on matrix growth modelling
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作者 Xue Du Xiangdong Lei +3 位作者 Xiao He Jie Lan Hong Guo Qigang Xu 《Forest Ecosystems》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第5期743-757,共15页
Climate change and forest management are recognized as pivotal factors influencing forest ecosystem services and thus multifunctionality.However,the magnitude and the relative importance of climate change and forest m... Climate change and forest management are recognized as pivotal factors influencing forest ecosystem services and thus multifunctionality.However,the magnitude and the relative importance of climate change and forest management effects on the multifunctionality remain unclear,especially for natural mixed forests.In this study,our objective is to address this gap by utilizing simulations of climate-sensitive transition matrix growth models based on national forest inventory plot data.We evaluated the effects of seven management scenarios(combinations of various cutting methods and intensities)on the future provision of ecosystem services and multifunctionality in mixed conifer-broad-leaved forests in northeastern China,under four climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5,and constant climate).Provisioning,regulating,cultural,and supporting services were described by timber production,carbon storage,carbon sequestration,tree species diversity,deadwood volume,and the number of large living trees.Our findings indicated that timber production was significantly influenced by management scenarios,while tree species diversity,deadwood volume,and large living trees were impacted by both climate and management separately.Carbon storage and sequestration were notably influenced by both management and the interaction of climate and management.These findings emphasized the profound impact of forest management on ecosystem services,outweighing that of climate scenarios alone.We found no single management scenario maximized all six ecosystem service indicators.The upper story thinning by 5%intensity with 5-year interval(UST5)management strategy emerged with the highest multifunctionality,surpassing the lowest values by more than 20%across all climate scenarios.In conclusion,our results underlined the potential of climate-sensitive transition matrix growth models as a decision support tool and provided recommendations for long-term strategies for multifunctional forest management under future climate change context.Ecosystem services and multifunctionality of forests could be enhanced by implementing appropriate management measures amidst a changing climate. 展开更多
关键词 Multifunctional forest management THINNING Transition matrix growth model Carbon sink Timber production
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Modelling the viscoplastic behaviour of Callovo-Oxfordian claystone with consideration of damage effect
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作者 Hao Wang Yu-Jun Cui +1 位作者 Minh Ngoc Vu Jean Talandier 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第1期303-316,共14页
In order to evaluate the performance of deep geological disposal of radioactive waste,an underground research laboratory(URL)was constructed by Andra in the Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone formation at the Meuse/Haute... In order to evaluate the performance of deep geological disposal of radioactive waste,an underground research laboratory(URL)was constructed by Andra in the Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone formation at the Meuse/Haute-Marne(MHM).The construction of URL induced the excavation damage of host formations,and the ventilation in the galleries desaturated the host formation close to the gallery wall.Moreover,it is expected that the mechanical behaviour of COx claystone is time-dependent.This study presents a constitutive model developed to describe the viscoplastic behaviour of unsaturated and damaged COx claystone.In this model,the unsaturation effect is considered by adopting the Bishop effective stress and the van Genuchten(VG)water retention model.In terms of the viscoplastic behaviour,the nonstationary flow surface(NSFS)theory for unsaturated soils is used with consideration of the coupled effects of strain rate and suction on the yield stress.A progressive hardening law is adopted.Meanwhile,a non-associated flow rule is used,which is similar to that in Barcelona basic model(BBM).In addition,to describe the damage effect induced by suction change and viscoplastic loading,a damage function is defined based on the crack volume proportion.This damage function contains two variables:unsaturated effective stress and viscoplastic volumetric strain,with the related parameters determined based on the mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP)tests.For the model validation,different tests on COx claystone under different loading paths are simulated.Comparisons between experimental and simulated results indicated that the present model is able to well describe the viscoplastic behaviour of damaged COx claystone,including swelling/shrinkage,triaxial extension and compression,and triaxial creep. 展开更多
关键词 Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone Excavation damage Time-dependent behaviour SUCTION Viscoplastic model
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Discrete Element Modelling of Damage Evolution of Concrete Considering Meso-Structure of ITZ
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作者 Weiliang Gao Shixu Jia +1 位作者 Tingting Zhao Zhiyong Wang 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2024年第6期3495-3511,共17页
The mechanical properties of interfacial transition zones(ITZs)have traditionally been simplified by reducing the stiffness of cement in previous simulation methods.A novel approach based on the discrete element metho... The mechanical properties of interfacial transition zones(ITZs)have traditionally been simplified by reducing the stiffness of cement in previous simulation methods.A novel approach based on the discrete element method(DEM)has been developed for modeling concrete.This new approach efficiently simulates the meso-structure of ITZs,accurately capturing their heterogeneous properties.Validation against established uniaxial compression experiments confirms the precision of thismodel.The proposedmodel canmodel the process of damage evolution containing cracks initiation,propagation and penetration.Under increasing loads,cracks within ITZs progressively accumulate,culminating in macroscopic fractures that traverse themortarmatrix,forming the complex,serpentine path of cracks.This study reveals four distinct displacement patterns:tensile compliant,tensile opposite,mixed tensile-shear,and shear opposite patterns,each indicative of different stages in concrete’s damage evolution.The widening angle of these patterns delineates the progression of cracks,with the tensile compliant pattern signaling the initial crack appearance and the shear opposite pattern indicating the concrete model’s ultimate failure. 展开更多
关键词 Discrete element method damage evolution interfacial transition zone meso-structure model
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Enhanced UAV Pursuit-Evasion Using Boids Modelling:A Synergistic Integration of Bird Swarm Intelligence and DRL
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作者 Weiqiang Jin Xingwu Tian +3 位作者 Bohang Shi Biao Zhao Haibin Duan Hao Wu 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2024年第9期3523-3553,共31页
TheUAV pursuit-evasion problem focuses on the efficient tracking and capture of evading targets using unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),which is pivotal in public safety applications,particularly in scenarios involving i... TheUAV pursuit-evasion problem focuses on the efficient tracking and capture of evading targets using unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),which is pivotal in public safety applications,particularly in scenarios involving intrusion monitoring and interception.To address the challenges of data acquisition,real-world deployment,and the limited intelligence of existing algorithms in UAV pursuit-evasion tasks,we propose an innovative swarm intelligencebased UAV pursuit-evasion control framework,namely“Boids Model-based DRL Approach for Pursuit and Escape”(Boids-PE),which synergizes the strengths of swarm intelligence from bio-inspired algorithms and deep reinforcement learning(DRL).The Boids model,which simulates collective behavior through three fundamental rules,separation,alignment,and cohesion,is adopted in our work.By integrating Boids model with the Apollonian Circles algorithm,significant improvements are achieved in capturing UAVs against simple evasion strategies.To further enhance decision-making precision,we incorporate a DRL algorithm to facilitate more accurate strategic planning.We also leverage self-play training to continuously optimize the performance of pursuit UAVs.During experimental evaluation,we meticulously designed both one-on-one and multi-to-one pursuit-evasion scenarios,customizing the state space,action space,and reward function models for each scenario.Extensive simulations,supported by the PyBullet physics engine,validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.The overall results demonstrate that Boids-PE significantly enhance the efficiency and reliability of UAV pursuit-evasion tasks,providing a practical and robust solution for the real-world application of UAV pursuit-evasion missions. 展开更多
关键词 UAV pursuit-evasion swarm intelligence algorithm Boids model deep reinforcement learning self-play training
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Drivers for Inter-city Innovation Networks Across Chinese Cities:Modelling Physical Versus Intangible Effects
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作者 GAO Yujie SCHERNGELL Thomas NEULÄNDTNER Martina 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第4期706-721,共16页
Cross-region innovation is widely recognized as an important source of the long-term regional innovation capacity.In the recent past,a growing number of studies has investigated the network structure and mechanisms of... Cross-region innovation is widely recognized as an important source of the long-term regional innovation capacity.In the recent past,a growing number of studies has investigated the network structure and mechanisms of cross-region innovation collaboration in various contexts.However,existing research mainly focuses on physical effects,such as geographical distance and high-speed railway connections.These studies ignore the intangible drivers in a changing environment,the more digitalized economy and the increasingly solidified innovation network structure.Thus,the focus of this study is on estimating determinants of innovation networks,especially on intangible drivers,which have been largely neglected so far.Using city-level data of Chinese patents(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan Province of China),we trace innovation networks across Chinese cities over a long period of time.By integrating a measure on Information and Communications Technology(ICT)development gap and network structural effects into the general proximity framework,this paper explores the changing mechanisms of Chinese innovation networks from a new perspective.The results show that the structure of cross-region innovation networks has changed in China.As mechanisms behind this development,the results confirm the increasingly important role of intangible drivers in Chinese inter-city innovation collaboration when controlling for effects of physical proximity,such as geographical distance.Since digitalization and coordinated development are the mainstream trends in China and other developing countries,these countries'inter-city innovation collaboration patterns will witness dramatic changes under the influence of intangible drivers. 展开更多
关键词 inter-city innovation network co-patents information and communications technology development network structural effect spatial interaction model China
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