In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with repres...In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.展开更多
We introduce the class-age-dependent rates of the infected and vaccinated class in the compartmental model of dengue transmission. An age-structured host-vector interac- tion model incorporating vaccination effects is...We introduce the class-age-dependent rates of the infected and vaccinated class in the compartmental model of dengue transmission. An age-structured host-vector interac- tion model incorporating vaccination effects is formulated and analyzed for the spread of dengue. Moreover, the basic reproduction number is derived, which serves as a thresh- old value determining the stability of the equilibrium points. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, the global asymptotic stability of the equilibria of the model is established in terms of the basic reproduction number. In particular, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction num- ber is less than one, while the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. The analysis of our model indicates that our model is realistic to give a hint to control the transmission of dengue. Furthermore, it follows from the formulation of the infection-free equilibrium of susceptible humans So and the basic reproduction number R0 that both of them are decreasing with respect to the vaccination parameter ~bh, which indicates that appropriate vaccinating program may contribute to prevent the transmission of Dengue disease.展开更多
文摘In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.
文摘We introduce the class-age-dependent rates of the infected and vaccinated class in the compartmental model of dengue transmission. An age-structured host-vector interac- tion model incorporating vaccination effects is formulated and analyzed for the spread of dengue. Moreover, the basic reproduction number is derived, which serves as a thresh- old value determining the stability of the equilibrium points. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, the global asymptotic stability of the equilibria of the model is established in terms of the basic reproduction number. In particular, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction num- ber is less than one, while the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. The analysis of our model indicates that our model is realistic to give a hint to control the transmission of dengue. Furthermore, it follows from the formulation of the infection-free equilibrium of susceptible humans So and the basic reproduction number R0 that both of them are decreasing with respect to the vaccination parameter ~bh, which indicates that appropriate vaccinating program may contribute to prevent the transmission of Dengue disease.
