European Monetary System and IMF

21st Century economy is full competitive market structure,severe capitalism exists in markets.Both capitalism and full competition requires monetary policy to increase demand in business markets.Because markets and firms face isomorphism threats that make competition severe.European Monetary System has gold-euro relations.ECB runs like second IMF in global and European economy.There may be need of third IMF in global economy.It may establish in China as Asia Central Bank.All three IMFs enable monetary authorities to apply effective monetary policy in global economy.Because capitalism requires money and monetary for demand in 21st Century.In addition,without third IMFs,ECB currently apply propositions of neoclassical monetarism in Europe.That policy would support demand and firms in European economy as it is very much important in global economy.

Renminbi Internationalization and Stability of the International Monetary System

This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency,＂ the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency,＂ and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.

Neo-merchantalism： Open Trade, Open Currency, and Open Monetary System？

Neo-merchantalism is the use of national currency in international trade among countries to increase global trade. This is called as open currency in the study. Neo-merchantalism also includes open trade to facilitate trade among countries. Thirdly, neo-merchantalism covers International Monetary Fund （IMF）. Because IMF regulates and controls money flow among countries in international trade, neo-merchantalism could be presented as follows： neo-merchantalism = open trade ＋ open currency ＋ IMF. Open trade and open currency exist in merchantalism theory. But today, there is also IMF control. Therefore, neo-merchantalism = merchantalism ＋ IMF. Globalism started in 1990 in global markets. It increased the amount of global trade from 13 trillion dollars to 60 trillion dollars. Therefore, each country has 6%-7% economic growth in global markets in the 2000s. It is expected that neo-merchantalism theory doubles global trade up to 100 trillion dollars. Because each country uses its money to do intemational trade, IMF＇s restrictions are important in currency flow, as countries may overprint their money to do more trade that increases inflation rate in global economies. For example, emission of United States （US） dollars increased 50% after 2008 crises in American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve aims to stop quantitative enlargement policy in order to impede inflation in American economy. In neo-merchantalism, IMF can restrict money print and currency flow according to country＇s gross domestic product （GDP）, because quantity theory in economy requires that a country can issue its national currency according to its national GDP.

The Institutional Supply of China＇s Participation in the International Monetary System Reform

There exist dual features of internationalization and regionalization in the current international monetary system, and the U.S. dollar is still in a dominant position in the system. A lack of relevant institutional constraints has led to institutional deficiencies and systematic risks in the international monetary system, and resulted in the frequent financial crises in the world in recent years. As an emerging economy closely related to the current international monetary system, China has responsibilities and obligations to participate actively in international monetary system reform and push forward international monetary system reform through institutional supply.

A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk,real economic activity,and monetary intervention

The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.

The Impact of the Monetary Policy During the COVID-19 in the Brazilian Banking Sector

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an outbreak on the global productive chains,transforming companies and society in general.Governments adopted anticyclical policies such as basic interest rates reduction as response.Brazil basic interest rate is denominated Selic.The application of these policies requires the protagonist of bank’s financial intermediation.This study aims to verify two events-under the perspective of the efficient markets’theory.The first is the communication of the first death by COVID-19-and the subsequent,Selic rate reduction to 2%p.a.-and its effects on bank’s shares prices.The hypotheses presented are:H1-The announcement of the first death by COVID-19 negatively impacts the banks’shares returns and H2-The announcement of the Selic interest rate-during the COVID-19-positively impacts the return of the banks’shares.We adopt event study methodology in a final sample of nine and 15 banks to Events 1 and 2 respectively.The results confirm H1 as well as the semi-strong informational efficiency market.H2 is not confirmed.Results confirm the non-effectiveness of the anticyclical policy of basic interest rate reduction.This contributes to the discussion about the impacts of COVID-19 and the efficacy of anticyclical policies.

Conjuncture Cycles and Monetary Anomalies Are Unwelcome Guests for Sustainability

Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for returning to calm monetary.Unfortunately,signs of poor governance are mistaken for unfortunate events,but are instead tools offered to restore economic systems.Politics seeks consensus and does not accept the bitter cure of recession.Monetary policy is therefore called into question even if monetary anomalies also depend on errors in the management of the economy;the result is the gradual increase in interest rates.Is the idea that we can achieve the goal of complete neutrality with nature acceptable in a global economic framework pervaded by inflation and denunciation?Can we similarly argue that economic problems can coexist once the goal of neutrality has been achieved?The answer is negative.We must correct these anomalies and dysfunctions of the economy,which cannot coexist in the new context of complete and indefinite equilibrium of tomorrow.And not even the idea that conflicts can be resolved with war seems to find a place in the renewed scenario of neutrality.In this regard we can remember that,when we have reached the economic optimum of complete neutrality,or at least we are close to it,the most socially and economically advanced territories and continents will benefit from an acceleration of productivity and development.Scarcity itself will give way to the new,long-awaited reality.A condition that approaches the state of abundance and which will produce surpluses to be allocated to countries and territories that are struggling towards the condition of neutrality.The acceleration of lagging continents and the recovery of altered economic systems are therefore preconditions that can allow us to access the state of global neutrality.As we get closer to the great objective,it is to be believed that the pretense of regulating conflicts through war will also disappear.With the new reality of abundance,the economic reason for war disappears,while the aspiration of peoples-inscribed in their DNA-for solidarity and peaceful aggregation towards substantial unity becomes clear.

China’s Monetary Policy Impacts on Money and Stock Markets

This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.

Research on the Problems and Countermeasures of Monetary Capital Internal Control in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)constitute the primary drivers of production within the nation’s existing enterprise landscape.They represent the most dynamic segment of the national economy and play a pivotal role in supporting economic growth,fostering employment,and enhancing people’s livelihoods.However,despite their significant and extensive organizational structures,only a fraction of these companies have established internal control systems,and even fewer possess robust ones.Building upon this premise and considering the prevailing circumstances of SMEs,this paper undertakes an empirical analysis of monetary fund management within this sector.It delves into the operational intricacies,exploring how monetary funds should be effectively implemented to ensure their safety and integrity.Furthermore,it proposes viable strategies to enhance the circulation efficiency of monetary funds,thereby maximizing benefits for enterprises.Addressing these challenges is crucial for SME managers striving to achieve sustainable profit growth and navigate the complexities of financial management.

Advantages of Maize-Legume Intercropping Systems

An experiment was conducted during Kharif seasons of 2009 and 2010 on sandy loam soil of West Bengal, India to evaluate the productivity and economic viability of maize ＋ legume intercropping systems in additive as well as in replacement series with different row proportions. Maize （Zea rnays L.） cv. ＂Vijay＂ （composite）, green gram （Vigna radiata L.） cv. ＂Samrat＂, black gram （Vigna mungo L.） cv. ＂Sarada＂, soybean （Glycine max L. Merril） cv. ＂PK 327＂ and peanut （Arachis hypogaea L.） cv. ＂JL 24＂, were tested in monoculture as well as in intercropping situations with 1：1 （additive series） and 1：2 ratios （replacement series）. The result indicated that intercropped legumes improved the yield components of maize and offered some bonus yield. The highest maize grain yield （2,916.28 kg/ha） and maize equivalent yield （4,831.45 kg/ha） were recorded with maize ＋ green gram （1：1） and maize ＋ peanut （1：I）, respectively. The values of all the competition functions were always greater than unity and maize ＋ black gram （1：2） recorded the highest values of land equivalent ratio （1.433）, area time equivalent ratio （1.374） and land equivalent coefficient （0.421）. Maximum monetary advantage （Rs. 10,579.13） was found with maize ＋ green gam （l：1）. Maize ＋ peanut （1：2） combination recorded the highest relative net return （2.01）, net return （Rs. 28,523.08）, benefit-cost ratio （2.76） ad per day return （Rs. 259.30）.

Empirical research on the international spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy and their impacts

Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.

Heterogeneous Responses of Chinese Cities' Housing Prices to Monetary Policies

This works examine the responses of housing prices to the monetary policies in various Chinese cities. Thirty-five large and medium sized Chinese cities are classified into six clusters applying the minimum variance clustering method according to the calculated correlation coefficients between the housing price indices of every two cities.Time difference correlation analysis is then employed to quantify the relations between the housing price indices of the six clusters and the monetary policies.It is suggested that the housing prices of various cities evolved at different paces and their responses to the monetary policies are heterogeneous,and local economic features are more important than geographic distances in determining the housing price trends.

Monetary policy rules：Forward-looking and backward-looking in an overlapping generations model

In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.

WAVELET MODELING AND FORECASTING AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE CHINESE MONETARY MULTIPLIER

In this paper, a time_varying AR model is constructed by using the vector_space algorithm of compactly_supported biorthonormal wavelet transform. It is developed for forecasting narrow monetary multipliers in China .

Nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates:an application of recurrence quantification analysis

We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

Application of Monetary Unit Sampling Based on Extended Audit Game

On account of the lack of monetary unit sampling( MUS), an extended audit game model based on uncertainty information,which centers on audit risk and combines audit game with statistical sampling,is established to improve the effectiveness of audit risks analysis and sampling errors control. In this paper,an example concerning practical problems is given to demonstrate the process of extended audit game and confirm the truth of the effectiveness of the method. Not only does this method enhance the role of audit technology and the extension of audit procedures in deterring material irregularities,but also helps the auditors measure and control audit risk and sample sizes under uncertainty,conducive to improving the effect of cost control,risk evaluation,and decisionmaking optimization in audit sampling.

On the monetary measures of global liquidity

This study constructs and examines the dynamics of theoretical and atheoretical measures of global liquidity,using monthly data on the components of broad money over the period 2001 M12-2017 M12 for 39 high income countries.We group the countries into five regional blocks as categorized by the World Bank:East Asia and the Pacific,Europe and Central Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean,Middle East and North Africa,and North America.The atheoretical measures exploited by this study comprise of the simple-sum,GDP-weighted growth rates and PCA based aggregation methods;whereas theoretical measures include the currency equivalent and Divisia index techniques of monetary aggregation.We employ a graphical approach to investigate the trends and dynamics of the aggregates overtime,and a cross-correlation between cyclical components of global real economic activity and the lag of cyclical components of the measures of global liquidity to gauge the strength of their associations.The findings of this study reveal that theoretical measures outperform atheoretical ones in effective delineation of financial and liquidity conditions,and policy stance.Their cyclical components are also strongly associated with those of global real business activity.The currency equivalent measure,besides being a leading indicator of the shift in policy stance,has a sturdy association with global real business activity.Moreover,the theoretical measures,as noted by some empirical studies,contain some information content that the atheoretical lack.

Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy:quantitative easing,spreads,and international financial markets

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.