A New Monsoon Index and the Geographical Distribution of the Global Monsoons

A new monsoon index, the dynamical normalized seasonality (DNS), is introduced to study the issue of monsoons. This DNS index can describe both seasonal variation and interannual variability of different monsoon regions. It can also be used to delimit the geographical distribution of the global monsoon systems. Furthermore, it is pointed out that the index is very useful for understanding deeply the monsoons to study the difference, relationship, and interactions among the classical monsoon, ordinary monsoon and monsoon-like system.

The Dynamic Plateau Monsoon Index and Its Association with General Circulation Anomalies

Based on monthly ECMWF reanalysis-Interim （ERA-Interim） reanalysis data, along with monthly precipitation and temperature data, the Dynamic Plateau Monsoon Index （DPMI） is defined. The results of a contrast analysis of the DPMI versus the Traditional Plateau Monsoon Index （TPMI） are described. The response of general circulation to northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau summer monsoon anomalies and the correlation of the DPMI with general circulation anomalies are investigated. The results show that, the DPMI reflected meteorological elements better and depicted climate variation more accurately than the TPMI. In years when the plateau summer monsoon is strong, the low over the plateau and the trough near the eastern coast of Asia are deeper and higher than normal over South China. This correlation corresponds to two anomalous cyclones over the plateau and the eastern coast of Asia and an anomalous anticyclone in South China. The plateau and its adjacent regions are affected by anomalous southwesterly winds that transport more moisture to South China and cause more precipitation. The lower reaches of the Yangtze River appear to receive more precipitation by means of the strong westerly water vapor flow transported from the ＂large triangle affecting the region＂. In years when the plateau summer monsoon is weak, these are opposite. The plateau monsoon is closely related to the intensity and position of the South Asian high, and the existence of a teleconnection pattern in the mid-upper levels suggests a possible linkage of the East Asian monsoon and the Indian monsoon to the plateau summer monsoon.

A PRIMARY STUDY OF SUMMER MONSOON INDEX OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND EAST ASIA BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATION

The results by statistical analysis of black body Temperature （TBB） pentad mean from the Japanese GMS in the period of May to August, 1980-2002, show that the summer monsoon index （SMI） is defined to be the pentad mean TBB≤273 K. Its intensity includes three levels： TBB〉268 K for weak monsoon, 268 KETBB〉263 K for normal monsoon and TBB≤263K for strong monsoon over the South China sea and East Asia. In the meantime, a diagnostic method using TBB pentad anomaly is also introduced to help identify monsoon intensity. The SMI is used to run statistical analyses of the initial onset of the monsoon and its pentad variations with the year and month. A fairly close relationship is found between pentad monsoon activity and heavy rainfall periods in the two typical flood years of 1994 and 1998, which resulted from heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River basin and south China.

THE EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ITS RELATION WITH THE CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN CHINA

A new East Asian subtropical summer monsoon circulation index is defined, where the barotropic and baroclinic components of circulation are included. Results show that this index can well indicate the interannual variability of summer precipitation and temperature anomalies in China. A strong monsoon is characterized by more rainfall in the Yellow River basin and northern China, less rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, and more rainfall in south and southeast China, in association with higher temperature in most areas of China. Furthermore, comparison is made between the index proposed in this paper and other monsoon indexes in representing climate anomalies in China.

DETERMINATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET AND EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX

Results of the definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset date and East Asian summermonsoon index in recent years are summarized in this paper. And more questions to be resolved are introducedlater.

AN EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX DEFINED BY MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY

Based on consideration of both thermodynamic and kinetic features of the subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia,a new index is defined by the moist potential vorticity (MPV) for this monsoon.Variation features of the subtropical summer monsoon over 60 years are analyzed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) data from 1948 to 2007.Results show that the new index can well reflect the seasonal,interannual,and interdecadal variations of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon.Correlation analysis of the new index and precipitation data from 160 stations in China shows that in high-index years,the summer monsoon is strong,and more rain falls in eastern North China,southwestern China,and along the coast of South China and less rain falls in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.In low-index years,the opposite occurs.Lastly,the new index is compared with four established monsoon indices.The new index is found to have an advantage in representing summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.

THE ANALYSIS OF MECHANISM OF IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ONSET

RegCM4.3, a high-resolution regional climate model, which includes five kinds of aerosols(dust, sea salt,sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon), is employed to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) from 1995 to 2010 and the simulation data are used to study the possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.The results show that the regional climate model can well simulate the EASM and the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols. The EASM index is reduced by about 5% by the natural and anthropogenic aerosols and the monsoon onset time is also delayed by about a pentad except for Southeast China. The aerosols heat the middle atmosphere through absorbing solar radiation and the air column expands in Southeast China and its offshore areas. As a result, the geopotential height decreases and a cyclonic circulation anomaly is generated in the lower atmosphere. Northerly wind located in the west of cyclonic circulation weakens the low-level southerly wind in the EASM region. Negative surface radiative forcing due to aerosols causes downward motion and an indirect meridional circulation is formed with the low-level northerly wind and high-level southerly wind anomaly in the north of 25° N in the monsoon area, which weakens the vertical circulation of EASM. The summer precipitation of the monsoon region is significantly reduced,especially in North and Southwest China where the value of moisture flux divergence increases.

An East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Index and Its Relationship to Summer Rainfall in China

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the monthly rainfall observations at 160 rain gauge stations of China during 1961 1999, and based on major characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the western Pacific, a simple index for the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon （EASSM） is defined. The relationship between this index and summer rainfall in China and associated circulation features are examined. A comparison is made between this index and other monsoon indices. The results indicate that the index defined herein is reflective of variations of both the thermal low pressure centered in Siberia and the subtropical ridge over the western Pacific. It epitomizes the intensity of the EASSM and the variability of summer rainfall along the Yangtze River. Analysis shows that the Siberian low has a greater effect on the rainfall than the subtropical ridge, suggesting that the summer rainfall variability over the eastern parts of China is to a large extent affected by anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and cold air development in the midlatitudes. Taking into account of the effects of both the Siberian low and the subtropical ridge can better capture the summer rainfall anomalies of China. The index exhibits interannual and decadal variabilities, with high-index values occurring mainly in the 1960s and 1970s and low-index values in the 1980s and 1990s. When the EASSM index is low, the Siberian low and the subtropical ridge are weaker, and northerly wind anomalies appear at low levels over the midlatitudes and subtropics of East Asia, whereas southwesterly wind anomalies dominate in the upper troposphere over the tropics and subtropics of Asia and the western Pacific. The northerly wind anomalies bring about frequent cold air disturbances from the midlatitudes of East Asia, strengthening the convergence and ascending motions along the Meiyu front, and result in an increase of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River.

DIAGNOSIS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DYNAMIC CORRELATION FACTORS BETWEEN WEST-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EAST ASIA MONSOON SYSTEM INDEXES

Based on the daily reanalysis data of NCEP / NCAR and by using the method of phase space reconstruction, the point conditional probability density of the subtropical high ridge index are determined and then used, together with their power spectra, to seek the correlation between them and individual monsoon-affecting factors and their power spectra. Through diagnosis, six indexes are discovered that have the most important effects on the subtropical high index. The results of the diagnosis indicate that the technique can identify the factors which are dynamically correlated. It can offer the basis in determining and choosing dynamic conceptual factors.

Ensemble Prediction of Monsoon Index with a Genetic Neural Network Model

After the consideration of the nonlinear nature changes of monsoon index,and the subjective determination of network structure in traditional artificial neural network prediction modeling,monthly and seasonal monsoon intensity index prediction is studied in this paper by using nonlinear genetic neural network ensemble prediction（GNNEP）modeling.It differs from traditional prediction modeling in the following aspects： （1）Input factors of the GNNEP model of monsoon index were selected from a large quantity of preceding period high correlation factors,such as monthly sea temperature fields,monthly 500-hPa air temperature fields,monthly 200-hPa geopotential height fields,etc.,and they were also highly information-condensed and system dimensionality-reduced by using the empirical orthogonal function（EOF）method,which effectively condensed the useful information of predictors and therefore controlled the size of network structure of the GNNEP model.（2）In the input design of the GNNEP model,a mean generating function（MGF）series of predictand（monsoon index）was added as an input factor;the contrast analysis of results of predic- tion experiments by a physical variable predictor-predictand MGF GNNEP model and a physical variable predictor GNNEP model shows that the incorporation of the periodical variation of predictand（monsoon index）is very effective in improving the prediction of monsoon index.（3）Different from the traditional neural network modeling,the GNNEP modeling is able to objectively determine the network structure of the GNNNEP model,and the model constructed has a better generalization capability.In the case of identical predictors,prediction modeling samples,and independent prediction samples,the prediction accuracy of our GNNEP model combined with the system dimensionality reduction technique of predictors is clearly higher than that of the traditional stepwise regression model using the traditional treatment technique of predictors,suggesting that the GNNEP model opens up a vast range of possibilities for operational weather prediction.

An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-The EAP Index

Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.

基于EOF的1951-2020年东亚季风区降水特征及其对夏季风不同配置的响应研究

东亚季风区夏季降水受季风影响显著,不同季风配置通过影响区域水汽输送,在东亚季风区形成不同的降水格局,降水格局的变化容易引起旱涝灾害的发生。本文基于经验正交函数(EOF)分析,利用全球降水气候中心(GPCC)降水资料、美国国家环境预测中心/大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料和不同夏季风指数,分析了1951-2020年东亚季风区夏季降水格局,进一步结合相关分析、水汽通量分析等,研究了4种夏季风强弱不同配置对东亚季风区夏季降水的影响。结果表明:(1)1951-2020年东亚季风区降水经历了先减少后增加的变化。EOF分析较好地展现了东亚季风区夏季降水的时空分布,东亚季风区夏季降水主要表现为南北向“-、+、-”的三极型分布与南北方降水反相变化的偶极型特征;东亚季风区夏季降水异常主要发生在三极型降水结构的相位转换上,其次是偶极型的相位转换;(2)东亚季风区夏季降水异常是东亚季风、南亚季风、西风环流以及西太平洋季风等系统共同作用的结果。导致东亚季风区降水异常增加(减少)的季风配置主要为配置1:西太平洋季风强,东亚季风和西风弱(配置2:西风强,东亚季风和南亚季风弱);(3)配置1时,西太副高偏南偏西,中高纬形成西风槽,季风区南方季风较强,容易通过切变线以及抬升作用在季风区中部形成降水,导致异常降水增加,配置2时,西风强劲,南方水汽动力不足,无法深入大陆,造成异常降水减少。本文研究结果为气候变化背景下,探究东亚季风区异常降水机理提供理论基础,也为应对区域极端降水事件以及旱涝灾害防治工作提供重要的科学参考依据。

东亚冬季风指数对中国冬季气候变化表征能力的对比分析

利用1951—2022年ERA5再分析大气环流资料和国家气候中心全国站点气温和降水资料,将33个常用的东亚冬季风(EAWM)指数划分为海陆差异类、高压特征类、大槽特征类、低层风场类、中高层风场类和综合类6类,按类别对比分析了它们的线性变化趋势和年际、年代际变化特征,并就各指数对中国冬季气温、降水时空变化的表征能力以及与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北极涛动(AO)等气候系统主要内部变率的关系进行了评估分析。结果显示:(1)在趋势变化方面,中国冬季气候暖湿化特征明显,但仅大槽特征类和综合类指数反映出季风的减弱趋势,其余类型指数则多呈现微弱的增强趋势,表明EAWM各子成员对当前全球变暖的响应存在差异;(2)在年际、年代际变化方面,EAWM指数主要表现为准4 a、准8 a和准16 a的周期振荡,基本都能刻画出20世纪80年代中后期EAWM的年代际减弱,对于21世纪第1个10年中期EAWM的年代际增强,考虑了南北气压差的海陆差异类指数以及高压特征类、大槽特征类和中高层风场类指数能较好表征;(3)在反映中国冬季气温变率的能力方面,除低层风场类指数外,各类指数表现良好,尤其是高压特征类指数的表征能力最佳,而在降水变率方面,高压特征类指数的代表性较差,低层风场类指数的指示意义最好;(4)在与气候系统主要内部变率的关系方面,大多数指数能较好反映ENSO与EAWM之间的关系,其中低层风场类指数的表征能力最好。而在反映AO与EAWM的关系上,则是高压特征类和大槽特征类指数的表现更佳。总体而言,除趋势变化存在较大差异外,各类EAWM指数能够一致地反映中国冬季气候变化的主要特征,但不同类别指数所表征的侧重点存在差异。因此,在分析EAWM相关科学问题时应根据研究的目的选择合适的指数。

How Well do Existing Indices Measure the Strength of the East Asian Winter Monsoon?

Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories： low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957-2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUBSYSTEMS OF THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON

In this study,the relationship between the subsystems of Asian summer monsoon is analyzed using U.S.National Centers for Environmental Protection/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation monthly mean precipitation data.The results showed that there is significant correlation between the subsystems of Asian summer monsoon.The changes of intensity over the same period show that weak large-scale Asian monsoon,Southeast Asia monsoon and South Asian monsoon are associated with strong East Asian monsoon and decreasing rainfall in related areas.And when the large-scale Asian monsoon is strong,Southeast Asia and South Asia monsoons will be strong and precipitation will increase.While the Southeast Asia monsoon is strong,the South Asia monsoon is weak and the rainfall of South Asia is decreasing,and vice versa.The various subsystems are significantly correlated for all periods of intensity changes.

Diagnosis of Seasonal Variations of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the South China Sea Using a Genesis Potential Index

This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to these variations is investigated. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for the summer and winter monsoons separately. These composites replicate the observed seasonal variations of the observed frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS. The degree of contribution by each factor in different regions is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. Over the northern SCS, potential intensity makes the largest contributions to the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis. Over the southern SCS, the low-level relative vorticity plays the primary role in the seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, and the vertical wind shear plays the secondary role. Thermodynamic factors play more important roles for the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis over the northern SCS, while dynamic factors are more important in the seasonal modulation of TC genesis frequency over the southern SCS.

Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Indices by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES

The seasonal predictability of various East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） indices was investigated in this study based on the retrospective forecasts of the five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for a 46-year period of 19612006.It was found that the ENSEMBLES models predict five out of the 21 EAWM indices well,with temporal correlation coefficients ranging from 0.54 to 0.61.These five indices are defined by the averaged lower-tropospheric winds over the low latitudes （south of 30°N）.Further analyses indicated that the predictability of these five indices originates from their intimate relationship with ENSO.A cross-validated prediction,which took the preceding （November） observed Nifo3.4 index as a predictor,gives a prediction skill almost identical to that shown by the model.On the other hand,the models present rather low predictability for the other indices and for surface air temperature in East Asia.In addition,the models fail to reproduce the relationship between the indices of different categories,implying that they cannot capture the tropicalextratropical interaction related to EAWM variability.Together,these results suggest that reliable prediction of the EAWM indices and East Asian air temperature remains a challenge.

Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1979 to 2002.The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented.The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice,that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area.The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer（June-August） precipitation in China.The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south,and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin.While the winter index is positive（negative）,the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier（later）,with a probability of 79%（80%）.Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.

Drought fluctuations based on dendrochronology since 1786 for the Lenglongling Mountains at the northwestern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon region

The Lenglongling Mountains （LLM） located in northeastern part of the Tibet Plateau, belong to a marginal area of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and are sensitive to monsoon dynamics. Two tree-ring width chronologies developed from six sites of Picea crassifolia in the LLM were employed to study the regional drought variability. Correlation and temporal correlation analyses showed that relationships between the two chronologies and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index （sc_PDSI） were significant and stable across time, demonstrating the strength of sc_PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. Based on the relationships, the mean sc_PDSI was reconstructed for the period from 1786 to 2013. Dry conditions prevailed during 1817-1819, 1829-1831, 1928-1931 and 1999-2001. Relatively wet periods were identified for 1792-1795 and 1954-1956. Spatial correlations with other fourteen precipitation/drought reconstructed series in previous studies revealed that in arid regions of Northwest China, long-term variability of moisture conditions was synchronous before the 1950s at a decadal scale （1791-1954）. In northwestern margin of the EASM, most of all selected reconstructions had better consistency in low-frequency variation, especially during dry periods, indicating similar regional moisture variations and analogous modes of climate forcing on tree growth in the region.

南亚季风环流与臭氧时空分布变化关系的特征分析

利用2005年1月至2017年12月搭载在美国环境监测Aura卫星上的臭氧监测仪(Ozone Monitoring Instrument,OMI)数据和NCEP气象资料,在夏季风环流指数定义方法的基础上,重新定义了南亚区域冬季风环流指数,并分别计算了南亚夏季风和冬季风环流指数.结合冬夏两季环流的强弱变化采用相关分析、合成分析和奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)等方法,探讨了环流异常形势下臭氧的时空变化特征.结果表明:(1)南亚夏季纬向环流与经向环流的强度变化存在一致性,冬季经向环流与纬向环流的强度变化差异较大.(2)南亚臭氧柱总量的季节变化明显,且近13年来臭氧柱总量整体呈上升趋势.(3)夏季(冬季)风环流指数与对流层中低(中高)层和平流层中低层臭氧的相关性显著,但夏季平流层和对流层的相关趋势相反.(4)夏季风环流增强对应青藏高原-伊朗高原上空及南侧区域的上升运动增强,对臭氧的输送作用是造成对流层臭氧分布呈现差异的原因.(5)冬季风环流强弱期的垂直上升和下沉运动中心的移动,以及南北向、东西向气流交汇区的差异是造成臭氧分布不同的原因.