The maintenance of safety and dependability in rail and road embankments is of utmost importance in order to facilitate the smooth operation of transportation networks.This study introduces a comprehensive methodology...The maintenance of safety and dependability in rail and road embankments is of utmost importance in order to facilitate the smooth operation of transportation networks.This study introduces a comprehensive methodology for soil slope stability evaluation,employing Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)and Subset Simulation(SS)with the"UPSS 3.0 Add-in"in MS-Excel.Focused on an 11.693-meter embankment with a soil slope(inclination ratio of 2H:1V),the investigation considers earthquake coefficients(kh)and pore water pressure ratios(ru)following Indian zoning requirements.The chance of slope failure showed a considerable increase as the Coefficient of Variation(COV),seismic coefficients(kh),and pore water pressure ratios(ru)experienced an escalation.The SS approach showed exceptional efficacy in calculating odds of failure that are notably low.Within computational modeling,the study optimized the worst-case scenario using ANFIS-GA,ANFIS-GWO,ANFIS-PSO,and ANFIS-BBO models.The ANFIS-PSO model exhibits exceptional accuracy(training R2=0.9011,RMSE=0.0549;testing R2=0.8968,RMSE=0.0615),emerging as the most promising.This study highlights the significance of conducting thorough risk assessments and offers practical insights into evaluating and improving the stability of soil slopes in transportation infrastructure.These findings contribute to the enhancement of safety and reliability in real-world situations.展开更多
This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s(TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed ...This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s(TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed the source apportionment and assessed the health risk of TMs in agricultural soils by using positive matrix factorization(PMF) model and health risk assessment(HRA) model based on Monte Carlo simulation. Meanwhile, we combined PMF and HRA models to explore the health risks of TMs in agricultural soils by different pollution sources to determine the priority control factors. Results showed that the average contents of cadmium(Cd), arsenic (As), lead(Pb), chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and zinc(Zn) in the soil were found to be 0.26, 5.93, 27.14, 61.32, 23.81, 32.45, and 78.65 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial analysis and source apportionment analysis revealed that urban and industrial sources, agricultural sources, and natural sources accounted for 33.0%, 27.7%, and 39.3% of TM accumulation in the soil, respectively. In the HRA model based on Monte Carlo simulation, noncarcinogenic risks were deemed negligible(hazard index <1), the carcinogenic risks were at acceptable level(10^(-6)<total carcinogenic risk ≤ 10^(-4)), with higher risks observed for children compared to adults. The relationship between TMs, their sources, and health risks indicated that urban and industrial sources were primarily associated with As, contributing to 75.1% of carcinogenic risks and 55.7% of non-carcinogenic risks, making them the primary control factors. Meanwhile, agricultural sources were primarily linked to Cd and Pb, contributing to 13.1% of carcinogenic risks and 21.8% of non-carcinogenic risks, designating them as secondary control factors.展开更多
When multiphysics coupling calculations contain time-dependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, these simulations often account for the largest part of the calculation time, which is insufferable in certain...When multiphysics coupling calculations contain time-dependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, these simulations often account for the largest part of the calculation time, which is insufferable in certain important cases. This study proposes an adaptive strategy for automatically adjusting the sample size to fulfil more reasonable simulations. This is realized based on an extension of the Shannon entropy concept and is essentially different from the popular methods in timeindependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, such as controlling the sample size according to the relative error of a target tally or by experience. The results of the two models show that this strategy can yield almost similar results while significantly reducing the calculation time. Considering the efficiency, the sample size should not be increased blindly if the efficiency cannot be enhanced further. The strategy proposed herein satisfies this requirement.展开更多
In public health,simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset,enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation,experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments,and...In public health,simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset,enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation,experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments,and testing system limits without real-world repercussions.In simulation modeling,the Monte Carlo method emerges as a powerful yet underutilized tool.Although the Monte Carlo method has not yet gained widespread prominence in healthcare,its technological capabilities hold promise for substantial cost reduction and risk mitigation.In this review article,we aimed to explore the transformative potential of the Monte Carlo method in healthcare contexts.We underscore the significance of experiential insights derived from simulated experimentation,especially in resource-constrained scenarios where time,financial constraints,and limited resources necessitate innovative and efficient approaches.As public health faces increasing challenges,incorporating the Monte Carlo method presents an opportunity for enhanced system construction,analysis,and evaluation.展开更多
Gamma ray shielding is essential to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment in facilities and environments where radiation exists.The Monte Carlo technique is vital for analyzing the gamma-ray shielding capabilit...Gamma ray shielding is essential to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment in facilities and environments where radiation exists.The Monte Carlo technique is vital for analyzing the gamma-ray shielding capabilities of materials.In this study,a simple Monte Carlo code,EJUSTCO,is developed to cd simulate gamma radiation transport in shielding materials for academic purposes.The code considers the photoelectric effect,Compton(incoherent)scattering,pair production,and photon annihilation as the dominant interaction mechanisms in the gamma radiation shielding problem.Variance reduction techniques,such as the Russian roulette,survival weighting,and exponential transformation,are incorporated into the code to improve computational efficiency.Predicting the exponential transformation parameter typically requires trial and error as well as expertise.Herein,a deep learning neural network is proposed as a viable method for predicting this parameter for the first time.The model achieves an MSE of 0.00076752 and an R-value of 0.99998.The exposure buildup factors and radiation dose rates due to the passage of gamma radiation with different source energies and varying thicknesses of lead,water,iron,concrete,and aluminum in single-,double-,and triple-layer material systems are validated by comparing the results with those of MCNP,ESG,ANS-6.4.3,MCBLD,MONTEREY MARK(M),PENELOPE,and experiments.Average errors of 5.6%,2.75%,and 10%are achieved for the exposure buildup factor in single-,double-,and triple-layer materials,respectively.A significant parameter that is not considered in similar studies is the gamma ray albedo.In the EJUSTCO code,the total number and energy albedos have been computed.The results are compared with those of MCNP,FOTELP,and PENELOPE.In general,the EJUSTCO-developed code can be employed to assess the performance of radiation shielding materials because the validation results are consistent with theoretical,experimental,and literary results.展开更多
Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation(GCMCs)is utilized for studying hydrogen storage gravimetric density by pha-graphene at different metal densities,temperatures and pressures.It is demonstrated that the optimum ad...Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation(GCMCs)is utilized for studying hydrogen storage gravimetric density by pha-graphene at different metal densities,temperatures and pressures.It is demonstrated that the optimum adsorbent location for Li atoms is the center of the seven-membered ring of pha-graphene.The binding energy of Li-decorated phagraphene is larger than the cohesive energy of Li atoms,implying that Li can be distributed on the surface of pha-graphene without forming metal clusters.We fitted the force field parameters of Li and C atoms at different positions and performed GCMCs to study the absorption capacity of H_(2).The capacity of hydrogen storage was studied by the differing density of Li decoration.The maximum hydrogen storage capacity of 4Li-decorated pha-graphene was 15.88 wt%at 77 K and100 bar.The enthalpy values of adsorption at the three densities are in the ideal range of 15 kJ·mol^(-1)-25 kJ·mol^(-1).The GCMC results at different pressures and temperatures show that with the increase in Li decorative density,the hydrogen storage gravimetric ratio of pha-graphene decreases but can reach the 2025 US Department of Energy's standard(5.5 wt%).Therefore,pha-graphene is considered to be a potential hydrogen storage material.展开更多
尾矿及其周边土壤中的铀及重金属污染对生态系统安全产生严重威胁,并对人类健康造成潜在风险。本研究以美国环境保护署提出的健康风险评估模型为基础,借助蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation)的确定性和概率性模型及敏感性分析的综合...尾矿及其周边土壤中的铀及重金属污染对生态系统安全产生严重威胁,并对人类健康造成潜在风险。本研究以美国环境保护署提出的健康风险评估模型为基础,借助蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation)的确定性和概率性模型及敏感性分析的综合模拟方法,通过对多种暴露途径的综合估算,评估了中国南部某铀尾矿及周边区域土壤对成年男性、成年女性及儿童的致癌和非致癌风险。结果表明,研究区域内存在儿童及成年女性的累积非致癌健康风险和致癌健康风险。敏感性分析结果表明,优先控制砷、铅、铀、锑、钒可有效降低非致癌风险;优先控制砷、铬和镉可有效降低致癌风险。展开更多
With the illustration of a specific problem, this paper demonstrates that using Monte Carlo Simulation technology will improve intuitive effect of teaching Probability and Mathematical Statistics course, and save inst...With the illustration of a specific problem, this paper demonstrates that using Monte Carlo Simulation technology will improve intuitive effect of teaching Probability and Mathematical Statistics course, and save instructors' effort as well.And it is estimated that Monte Carlo Simulation technology will be one of the major teaching methods for Probability and Mathematical Statistics course in the future.展开更多
The microstructures and their kinetics of normal grain growth are simulated using different Monte Carlo (MC) algorithms. Compared with the relative figures and the theoretical normal grain growth exponents of n =0.5...The microstructures and their kinetics of normal grain growth are simulated using different Monte Carlo (MC) algorithms. Compared with the relative figures and the theoretical normal grain growth exponents of n =0.5, the effects of some factors of MC algorithm, i.e. the lattice types, the methods of selecting lattice sites, and the neighbors selection for energy calculations, on the simulation results of grain growth are studied. Two methods of regression were compared, and the three-parameter nonlinear regression is much more suitable for fitting the grain growth kinetics. A better model with appropriate factors included triangular lattice, the attempted site randomly selected, and the first and second nearest neighbors for energy calculations is obtained.展开更多
This paper provides the formulation used for studing the cold and hot separating stages of a multistage launch vehicle. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to account for the off nominal design parameters of the bodies...This paper provides the formulation used for studing the cold and hot separating stages of a multistage launch vehicle. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to account for the off nominal design parameters of the bodies undergoing separation to evaluate the risk of failure for the separation event. All disturbances, effect of dynamic unbalance, residual thrust, separation disturbance caused by the separation mechanism and misalignment in cold and hot separation are analyzed to find out nonoccurrence of collision between the separation bodies. The results indicate that the current design satisfies the separation requirements.展开更多
An appropriate Monte Carlo method was developed to simulate the three-dimensional normal grain growth more completely. Comparative investigation on the three-dimensional and the cross-sectional characteristics of norm...An appropriate Monte Carlo method was developed to simulate the three-dimensional normal grain growth more completely. Comparative investigation on the three-dimensional and the cross-sectional characteristics of normal grain growth was done. It was found that the time exponent of grain growth determined from cross-section exhibits the same rule of increasing slowly with time and approaching the theoretical value n = 0.5 of steadygrain growth as the three-dimensional (3-D) system. From change of the number of grains per unit area with timemeasured in cross-section, the state of 3-D normal grain growth may be predicted. The gtain size distribution incross-section is different from that in 3-D system and can not express the evolution characteristic of the 3-D distribution. Furthermore, there exists statistical connection between the topological parameters in cross-section and thosein three-dimensions.展开更多
The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with ...The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.展开更多
Three-dimensional normal grain growth was appropriately simulated using a Potts model Monte Carlo algorithm. The quasi-stationary grain size distribution obtained from simulation agreed well with the experimental resu...Three-dimensional normal grain growth was appropriately simulated using a Potts model Monte Carlo algorithm. The quasi-stationary grain size distribution obtained from simulation agreed well with the experimental result of pure iron. The Weibull function with a parameter β=2.77 and the Yu-Liu function with a parameter v =2.71 fit the quasi-stationary grain size distribution well. The grain volume distribution is a function that decreased exponentially with increasing grain volume. The distribution of boundary area of grains has a peak at S/〈S〉=0.5, where S is the boundary area of a grain and 〈S〉 is the mean boundary area of all grains in the system. The lognormal function fits the face number distribution well and the peak of the face number distribution is f=10. The mean radius off-faced grains is not proportional to the face number, but appears to be related by a curve convex upward. In the 2D cross-section, both the perimeter law and the Aboav-Weaire law are observed to hold.展开更多
Tooth modification technique is widely used in gear industry to improve the meshing performance of gearings. However, few of the present studies on tooth modification considers the influence of inevitable random error...Tooth modification technique is widely used in gear industry to improve the meshing performance of gearings. However, few of the present studies on tooth modification considers the influence of inevitable random errors on gear modification effects. In order to investigate the uncertainties of tooth modification amount variations on system's dynamic behaviors of a helical planetary gears, an analytical dynamic model including tooth modification parameters is proposed to carry out a deterministic analysis on the dynamics of a helical planetary gear. The dynamic meshing forces as well as the dynamic transmission errors of the sun-planet 1 gear pair with and without tooth modifications are computed and compared to show the effectiveness of tooth modifications on gear dynamics enhancement. By using response surface method, a fitted regression model for the dynamic transmission error(DTE) fluctuations is established to quantify the relationship between modification amounts and DTE fluctuations. By shifting the inevitable random errors arousing from manufacturing and installing process to tooth modification amount variations, a statistical tooth modification model is developed and a methodology combining Monte Carlo simulation and response surface method is presented for uncertainty analysis of tooth modifications. The uncertainly analysis reveals that the system's dynamic behaviors do not obey the normal distribution rule even though the design variables are normally distributed. In addition, a deterministic modification amount will not definitely achieve an optimal result for both static and dynamic transmission error fluctuation reduction simultaneously.展开更多
Microfission chambers loaded with highly enriched fissile materials are widely used for measuring power in reactors. The neutron sensitivity of the microfission chamber is a key parameter that determines the accuracy ...Microfission chambers loaded with highly enriched fissile materials are widely used for measuring power in reactors. The neutron sensitivity of the microfission chamber is a key parameter that determines the accuracy of the power measurement. To evaluate the performance of the FC4A microfission chamber, in this work, we introduced an accurate and validated model of the microfission chamber, a performed Monte Carlo simulation of the neutron sensitivity of the microfission chamber with GEANT4 code, and conducted an irradiation experiment on the neutron irradiation effect platform #3 of the Xi’an Pulsed Reactor. We compared the simulated sensitivity with the experimental results, which showed that the sensitivity obtained from the simulation was in good agreement with the experimental results. In addition, we studied the impact of the design parameters of the fission chamber on the calculated neutron sensitivity of the microfission chamber.展开更多
A Monte Carlo algorithm has been developed by the authors to simulate the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes of diamond films. The method considers both the diffusion and the incorporation of the growth radical...A Monte Carlo algorithm has been developed by the authors to simulate the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes of diamond films. The method considers both the diffusion and the incorporation of the growth radicals on the growing surface in simulating the evolution of the morphology and microstructure. The calculation of configuration energy is used to determine the orientation of adsorbed growth radicals. The effect of processing variables such as nucleation density and substrate temperature on the morphology and microstructure is discussed. It is found that competitive characteristic and coarsening effect exist in the simulation results, which agree with the experimental observations.展开更多
文摘The maintenance of safety and dependability in rail and road embankments is of utmost importance in order to facilitate the smooth operation of transportation networks.This study introduces a comprehensive methodology for soil slope stability evaluation,employing Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)and Subset Simulation(SS)with the"UPSS 3.0 Add-in"in MS-Excel.Focused on an 11.693-meter embankment with a soil slope(inclination ratio of 2H:1V),the investigation considers earthquake coefficients(kh)and pore water pressure ratios(ru)following Indian zoning requirements.The chance of slope failure showed a considerable increase as the Coefficient of Variation(COV),seismic coefficients(kh),and pore water pressure ratios(ru)experienced an escalation.The SS approach showed exceptional efficacy in calculating odds of failure that are notably low.Within computational modeling,the study optimized the worst-case scenario using ANFIS-GA,ANFIS-GWO,ANFIS-PSO,and ANFIS-BBO models.The ANFIS-PSO model exhibits exceptional accuracy(training R2=0.9011,RMSE=0.0549;testing R2=0.8968,RMSE=0.0615),emerging as the most promising.This study highlights the significance of conducting thorough risk assessments and offers practical insights into evaluating and improving the stability of soil slopes in transportation infrastructure.These findings contribute to the enhancement of safety and reliability in real-world situations.
基金supported by Project of Chongqing Science and Technology Bureau (cstc2022jxjl0005)。
文摘This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s(TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed the source apportionment and assessed the health risk of TMs in agricultural soils by using positive matrix factorization(PMF) model and health risk assessment(HRA) model based on Monte Carlo simulation. Meanwhile, we combined PMF and HRA models to explore the health risks of TMs in agricultural soils by different pollution sources to determine the priority control factors. Results showed that the average contents of cadmium(Cd), arsenic (As), lead(Pb), chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and zinc(Zn) in the soil were found to be 0.26, 5.93, 27.14, 61.32, 23.81, 32.45, and 78.65 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial analysis and source apportionment analysis revealed that urban and industrial sources, agricultural sources, and natural sources accounted for 33.0%, 27.7%, and 39.3% of TM accumulation in the soil, respectively. In the HRA model based on Monte Carlo simulation, noncarcinogenic risks were deemed negligible(hazard index <1), the carcinogenic risks were at acceptable level(10^(-6)<total carcinogenic risk ≤ 10^(-4)), with higher risks observed for children compared to adults. The relationship between TMs, their sources, and health risks indicated that urban and industrial sources were primarily associated with As, contributing to 75.1% of carcinogenic risks and 55.7% of non-carcinogenic risks, making them the primary control factors. Meanwhile, agricultural sources were primarily linked to Cd and Pb, contributing to 13.1% of carcinogenic risks and 21.8% of non-carcinogenic risks, designating them as secondary control factors.
基金supported by the CAEP Found (No.CX20200028)Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.11705011).
文摘When multiphysics coupling calculations contain time-dependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, these simulations often account for the largest part of the calculation time, which is insufferable in certain important cases. This study proposes an adaptive strategy for automatically adjusting the sample size to fulfil more reasonable simulations. This is realized based on an extension of the Shannon entropy concept and is essentially different from the popular methods in timeindependent Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, such as controlling the sample size according to the relative error of a target tally or by experience. The results of the two models show that this strategy can yield almost similar results while significantly reducing the calculation time. Considering the efficiency, the sample size should not be increased blindly if the efficiency cannot be enhanced further. The strategy proposed herein satisfies this requirement.
基金Supported by the European Union-NextGenerationEU,through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan of the Republic of Bulgaria,No.BG-RRP-2.004-0008.
文摘In public health,simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset,enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation,experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments,and testing system limits without real-world repercussions.In simulation modeling,the Monte Carlo method emerges as a powerful yet underutilized tool.Although the Monte Carlo method has not yet gained widespread prominence in healthcare,its technological capabilities hold promise for substantial cost reduction and risk mitigation.In this review article,we aimed to explore the transformative potential of the Monte Carlo method in healthcare contexts.We underscore the significance of experiential insights derived from simulated experimentation,especially in resource-constrained scenarios where time,financial constraints,and limited resources necessitate innovative and efficient approaches.As public health faces increasing challenges,incorporating the Monte Carlo method presents an opportunity for enhanced system construction,analysis,and evaluation.
基金Our profound gratitude and appreciation go to the Egyptian and Japanese governments for supporting and financing this research work at the Egypt-Japan University of Science and TechnologyFurther appreciation goes to the Science and Technology Development Fund for the additional financial support(project ID:STDF-33397).
文摘Gamma ray shielding is essential to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment in facilities and environments where radiation exists.The Monte Carlo technique is vital for analyzing the gamma-ray shielding capabilities of materials.In this study,a simple Monte Carlo code,EJUSTCO,is developed to cd simulate gamma radiation transport in shielding materials for academic purposes.The code considers the photoelectric effect,Compton(incoherent)scattering,pair production,and photon annihilation as the dominant interaction mechanisms in the gamma radiation shielding problem.Variance reduction techniques,such as the Russian roulette,survival weighting,and exponential transformation,are incorporated into the code to improve computational efficiency.Predicting the exponential transformation parameter typically requires trial and error as well as expertise.Herein,a deep learning neural network is proposed as a viable method for predicting this parameter for the first time.The model achieves an MSE of 0.00076752 and an R-value of 0.99998.The exposure buildup factors and radiation dose rates due to the passage of gamma radiation with different source energies and varying thicknesses of lead,water,iron,concrete,and aluminum in single-,double-,and triple-layer material systems are validated by comparing the results with those of MCNP,ESG,ANS-6.4.3,MCBLD,MONTEREY MARK(M),PENELOPE,and experiments.Average errors of 5.6%,2.75%,and 10%are achieved for the exposure buildup factor in single-,double-,and triple-layer materials,respectively.A significant parameter that is not considered in similar studies is the gamma ray albedo.In the EJUSTCO code,the total number and energy albedos have been computed.The results are compared with those of MCNP,FOTELP,and PENELOPE.In general,the EJUSTCO-developed code can be employed to assess the performance of radiation shielding materials because the validation results are consistent with theoretical,experimental,and literary results.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11904175,11804169,and 11804165)the Graduate Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province,China(Grant No.KYCX210700)。
文摘Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation(GCMCs)is utilized for studying hydrogen storage gravimetric density by pha-graphene at different metal densities,temperatures and pressures.It is demonstrated that the optimum adsorbent location for Li atoms is the center of the seven-membered ring of pha-graphene.The binding energy of Li-decorated phagraphene is larger than the cohesive energy of Li atoms,implying that Li can be distributed on the surface of pha-graphene without forming metal clusters.We fitted the force field parameters of Li and C atoms at different positions and performed GCMCs to study the absorption capacity of H_(2).The capacity of hydrogen storage was studied by the differing density of Li decoration.The maximum hydrogen storage capacity of 4Li-decorated pha-graphene was 15.88 wt%at 77 K and100 bar.The enthalpy values of adsorption at the three densities are in the ideal range of 15 kJ·mol^(-1)-25 kJ·mol^(-1).The GCMC results at different pressures and temperatures show that with the increase in Li decorative density,the hydrogen storage gravimetric ratio of pha-graphene decreases but can reach the 2025 US Department of Energy's standard(5.5 wt%).Therefore,pha-graphene is considered to be a potential hydrogen storage material.
文摘尾矿及其周边土壤中的铀及重金属污染对生态系统安全产生严重威胁,并对人类健康造成潜在风险。本研究以美国环境保护署提出的健康风险评估模型为基础,借助蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation)的确定性和概率性模型及敏感性分析的综合模拟方法,通过对多种暴露途径的综合估算,评估了中国南部某铀尾矿及周边区域土壤对成年男性、成年女性及儿童的致癌和非致癌风险。结果表明,研究区域内存在儿童及成年女性的累积非致癌健康风险和致癌健康风险。敏感性分析结果表明,优先控制砷、铅、铀、锑、钒可有效降低非致癌风险;优先控制砷、铬和镉可有效降低致癌风险。
文摘With the illustration of a specific problem, this paper demonstrates that using Monte Carlo Simulation technology will improve intuitive effect of teaching Probability and Mathematical Statistics course, and save instructors' effort as well.And it is estimated that Monte Carlo Simulation technology will be one of the major teaching methods for Probability and Mathematical Statistics course in the future.
基金the International Science & Technology Cooperation Project of Shandong Province(2006)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Y2007F06).
文摘The microstructures and their kinetics of normal grain growth are simulated using different Monte Carlo (MC) algorithms. Compared with the relative figures and the theoretical normal grain growth exponents of n =0.5, the effects of some factors of MC algorithm, i.e. the lattice types, the methods of selecting lattice sites, and the neighbors selection for energy calculations, on the simulation results of grain growth are studied. Two methods of regression were compared, and the three-parameter nonlinear regression is much more suitable for fitting the grain growth kinetics. A better model with appropriate factors included triangular lattice, the attempted site randomly selected, and the first and second nearest neighbors for energy calculations is obtained.
文摘This paper provides the formulation used for studing the cold and hot separating stages of a multistage launch vehicle. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to account for the off nominal design parameters of the bodies undergoing separation to evaluate the risk of failure for the separation event. All disturbances, effect of dynamic unbalance, residual thrust, separation disturbance caused by the separation mechanism and misalignment in cold and hot separation are analyzed to find out nonoccurrence of collision between the separation bodies. The results indicate that the current design satisfies the separation requirements.
文摘An appropriate Monte Carlo method was developed to simulate the three-dimensional normal grain growth more completely. Comparative investigation on the three-dimensional and the cross-sectional characteristics of normal grain growth was done. It was found that the time exponent of grain growth determined from cross-section exhibits the same rule of increasing slowly with time and approaching the theoretical value n = 0.5 of steadygrain growth as the three-dimensional (3-D) system. From change of the number of grains per unit area with timemeasured in cross-section, the state of 3-D normal grain growth may be predicted. The gtain size distribution incross-section is different from that in 3-D system and can not express the evolution characteristic of the 3-D distribution. Furthermore, there exists statistical connection between the topological parameters in cross-section and thosein three-dimensions.
文摘The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50671010)
文摘Three-dimensional normal grain growth was appropriately simulated using a Potts model Monte Carlo algorithm. The quasi-stationary grain size distribution obtained from simulation agreed well with the experimental result of pure iron. The Weibull function with a parameter β=2.77 and the Yu-Liu function with a parameter v =2.71 fit the quasi-stationary grain size distribution well. The grain volume distribution is a function that decreased exponentially with increasing grain volume. The distribution of boundary area of grains has a peak at S/〈S〉=0.5, where S is the boundary area of a grain and 〈S〉 is the mean boundary area of all grains in the system. The lognormal function fits the face number distribution well and the peak of the face number distribution is f=10. The mean radius off-faced grains is not proportional to the face number, but appears to be related by a curve convex upward. In the 2D cross-section, both the perimeter law and the Aboav-Weaire law are observed to hold.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51375013)Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.1208085ME64)
文摘Tooth modification technique is widely used in gear industry to improve the meshing performance of gearings. However, few of the present studies on tooth modification considers the influence of inevitable random errors on gear modification effects. In order to investigate the uncertainties of tooth modification amount variations on system's dynamic behaviors of a helical planetary gears, an analytical dynamic model including tooth modification parameters is proposed to carry out a deterministic analysis on the dynamics of a helical planetary gear. The dynamic meshing forces as well as the dynamic transmission errors of the sun-planet 1 gear pair with and without tooth modifications are computed and compared to show the effectiveness of tooth modifications on gear dynamics enhancement. By using response surface method, a fitted regression model for the dynamic transmission error(DTE) fluctuations is established to quantify the relationship between modification amounts and DTE fluctuations. By shifting the inevitable random errors arousing from manufacturing and installing process to tooth modification amount variations, a statistical tooth modification model is developed and a methodology combining Monte Carlo simulation and response surface method is presented for uncertainty analysis of tooth modifications. The uncertainly analysis reveals that the system's dynamic behaviors do not obey the normal distribution rule even though the design variables are normally distributed. In addition, a deterministic modification amount will not definitely achieve an optimal result for both static and dynamic transmission error fluctuation reduction simultaneously.
文摘Microfission chambers loaded with highly enriched fissile materials are widely used for measuring power in reactors. The neutron sensitivity of the microfission chamber is a key parameter that determines the accuracy of the power measurement. To evaluate the performance of the FC4A microfission chamber, in this work, we introduced an accurate and validated model of the microfission chamber, a performed Monte Carlo simulation of the neutron sensitivity of the microfission chamber with GEANT4 code, and conducted an irradiation experiment on the neutron irradiation effect platform #3 of the Xi’an Pulsed Reactor. We compared the simulated sensitivity with the experimental results, which showed that the sensitivity obtained from the simulation was in good agreement with the experimental results. In addition, we studied the impact of the design parameters of the fission chamber on the calculated neutron sensitivity of the microfission chamber.
文摘A Monte Carlo algorithm has been developed by the authors to simulate the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes of diamond films. The method considers both the diffusion and the incorporation of the growth radicals on the growing surface in simulating the evolution of the morphology and microstructure. The calculation of configuration energy is used to determine the orientation of adsorbed growth radicals. The effect of processing variables such as nucleation density and substrate temperature on the morphology and microstructure is discussed. It is found that competitive characteristic and coarsening effect exist in the simulation results, which agree with the experimental observations.