Active learning accelerated Monte-Carlo simulation based on the modified K-nearest neighbors algorithm and its application to reliability estimations

This paper proposes an active learning accelerated Monte-Carlo simulation method based on the modified K-nearest neighbors algorithm.The core idea of the proposed method is to judge whether or not the output of a random input point can be postulated through a classifier implemented through the modified K-nearest neighbors algorithm.Compared to other active learning methods resorting to experimental designs,the proposed method is characterized by employing Monte-Carlo simulation for sampling inputs and saving a large portion of the actual evaluations of outputs through an accurate classification,which is applicable for most structural reliability estimation problems.Moreover,the validity,efficiency,and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated numerically.In addition,the optimal value of K that maximizes the computational efficiency is studied.Finally,the proposed method is applied to the reliability estimation of the carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide composite specimens subjected to random displacements,which further validates its practicability.

Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

As one of the most serious natural disasters,many typhoons affect southeastern China every year.Taking Shenzhen,a coastal city in southeast China as an example,we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis.By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration(CMASTI),typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen.We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons.In addition,the Yah Meng(YM)wind field model was introduced,and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed.Using the YM wind field model,extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons.The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design.

Monte-Carlo Simulation of Surface Crack Growth Rate for Offshore Structural Steel E36-Z35

The Monte- Carlo method is used to simulate the surface fatigue crack growth rate for offshore structural steel E36-Z35, and to determine the distributions and relevance of the parameters in the Paris equation. By this method, the time and cost of fatigue crack propagation testing can be reduced. The application of the method is demonstrated by use of four sets of fatigue crack propagation data for offshore structural steel E36-Z35. A comparison of the test data with the theoretical prediction for surface crack growth rate shows the application of the simulation method to the fatigue crack propagation tests is successful.

Study on the Relationship between Lamellar Spacing and Growth Rate inthe Regular Eutectic Growthby Monte-Carlo Simulation

A modified Monte-Carlo(MC) method to simulate the regular growth of binary eutectic alloys is presented. It is found that the growth rate has a linear dependence on the chemical potential difference between the solid and liquid; the relation between the lamellar spacing A and growth rate R accords well with the prediction of Jackson-Hunt(JH) theory unless the growth rate is very low.

MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION FOR ATOMIC DEPOSITION OF AMORPHOUS ELECTROLESS Ni_(80)P_(20) COATING

Atomic growth process and structure of Amorphous Electroless Coating have been studied, using Monte-Carlo simulation method. The simulation results of amorphous Ni80P20 coating show that PDFs are in accordance with practical values. The migrations of adatoms in coating's growth are different from that of solidification of amorphous materials. In some cases, the migrated adatoms in the process of growth of amorphous coating are not enough to occupy all vacancies and traps, so the amorphous coating is micro-porous. The immovable probability k and the largest migration distance of adatoms, which lie on the electroless bath components, affect the PDF, volume density and microporosity remarkably.

Monte-Carlo Simulation of Response Functions for Natural Gamma-Rays in LaBr_3 Detector System with Complex Borehole Configurations

Usually, there are several methods, e.g. experiment, interpolation experiment-based, analytic function, and Monte-Carlo simulation, to calculate the response functions in LaBr3（Ce） detectors. In logging applications, the experiment-based methods cannot be adopted because of their limitations. Analytic function has the advantage of fast calculating speed, but it is very difficult to take into account many effects that occur in practical applications. On the contrary, Monte-Carlo simulation can deal with physical and geometric configurations very tactfully. It has a distinct advantage for calculating the functions with complex configurations in borehole. A new application of LaBr3（Ce） detector is in natural gamma-rays borehole spectrometer for uranium well logging. Calculation of response functions must consider a series of physical and geometric factors under complex logging conditions, including earth formations and its relevant parameters, different energies, material and thickness of the casings, the fluid between the two tubes, and relative position of the LaBr3（Ce） crystal to steel ingot at the front of logging tube. The present work establishes Monte-Carlo simulation models for the above-mentioned situations, and then performs calculations for main gamma-rays from natural radio-elements series. The response functions can offer experimental directions for the design of borehole detection system, and provide technique basis and basic data for spectral analysis of natural gamma-rays, and for sonrceless calibration in uranium quantitative interpretation.

Monte-Carlo simulation of a stochastic differential equation

For solving higher dimensional diffusion equations with an inhomogeneous diffusion coefficient,Monte Carlo（MC） techniques are considered to be more effective than other algorithms, such as finite element method or finite difference method. The inhomogeneity of diffusion coefficient strongly limits the use of different numerical techniques. For better convergence, methods with higher orders have been kept forward to allow MC codes with large step size. The main focus of this work is to look for operators that can produce converging results for large step sizes. As a first step, our comparative analysis has been applied to a general stochastic problem.Subsequently, our formulization is applied to the problem of pitch angle scattering resulting from Coulomb collisions of charge particles in the toroidal devices.

Dynamic simulation of beam-like structure with a crack subjected to a random moving mass oscillator

In this paper, dynamic simulation of a beam-like structure with a transverse open crack subjected to a random moving mass oscillator is investigated. The simultaneous effect of a crack and a random oscillator has not been addressed up to now. The crack in the beam at different locations and with different depths is considered as one group of damage, each as an individual imperfection. In addition, bearing immobility is considered as another type of problem in the beam. Mass, stiffness, damping and velocity of the oscillator are assumed to be random parameters. An improved perturbation technique is applied to reduce the simulation time. It was found that there is a maximum value of the variance of each uncertain parameter, in which the maximum reliability of the perturbation method can be achieved, and that this maximum value can be obtained by the Alpha-Hilber Monte-Carlo simulation method. The simulation results reveal that the mass and the velocity uncertainty cause high uncertainty in the deflection of the beam. Also, the pattern of the deflection is not affected by different random oscillator parameters, and as a result, the type of damage can be identified even with high uncertainty. Moreover, the deflection in the nodes around the mid-span of the beam provides the best information regarding the imperfections, and consequently leads to the best sensor locations in an actual experiment.

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS BASED ON DIRECTIONAL VECTOR SIMULATION TECHNIQUE

The new improved directional vector simulation method foranalyzing the reliability of struc- tural systems failure probabilityis researched. This paper also points out the defects of generaldirectional vector simulation, and gives rise to a new higheraccuracy approximate integral formula of structural systems failureprobability. A new geometric meaning of characteristic function isobtained. A new simple method of generating uniformly distributedrandom vector sample sin n-dimensional unit hyper-spherical surfaceis put forward and strictly proved. This method is easy to put intopractice. Numerical examples are given to show the applicability andeffectiveness of the suggested approach to structural systemsreliability problems.

Mechanisms of atmospheric neutron-induced single event upsets in nanometric SOI and bulk SRAM devices based on experiment-verified simulation tool

In this paper, a simulation tool named the neutron-induced single event effect predictive platform（NSEEP^2） is proposed to reveal the mechanism of atmospheric neutron-induced single event effect（SEE） in an electronic device, based on heavy-ion data and Monte-Carlo neutron transport simulation. The detailed metallization architecture and sensitive volume topology of a nanometric static random access memory（SRAM） device can be considered to calculate the real-time soft error rate（RTSER） in the applied environment accurately. The validity of this tool is verified by real-time experimental results. In addition, based on the NSEEP^2, RTSERs of 90 nm–32 nm silicon on insulator（SOI） and bulk SRAM device under various ambient conditions are predicted and analyzed to evaluate the neutron SEE sensitivity and reveal the underlying mechanism. It is found that as the feature size shrinks, the change trends of neutron SEE sensitivity of bulk and SOI technologies are opposite, which can be attributed to the different MBU performances. The RTSER of bulk technology is always 2.8–64 times higher than that of SOI technology, depending on the technology node, solar activity, and flight height.

APPLICATION OF MONTE-CARLO SIMULATED ANNEALING ON CONFORMATIONAL ANALYSIS

Monte-Carlo simulated annealing method (SA) was applied to the conformational analysis of flexible molecules such as peptides. The programs SAMM and SAPEP have been developed, using MM2 force field for organic molecules and ECEPP/2 force field for peptides respectively.

Simulation Study on High Energy Cosmic Electron Detection by Shower Image

Many projects have recently been carried out and proposed for observing high energy electrons since it is realized that cosmic ray electrons are very important when studying the dark matter particles and the acceleration mechanism of cosmic rays. An imaging calorimeter, BETS （Balloon-borne Electron Telescope with Scintillator fiber）, has been developed for this purpose. Using pattern analysis of the shower development, the electrons can be selected from those primary cosmic ray proton events with flux heights one-tenth that of the electrons. The Monte-Carlo simulation is indispensable for the instrument design, the signal trigger and the data analysis. We present different shower simulation codes and compare the simulation results with the beam test and the flight data of BETS. We conclude that the code FLUKA2002 gives the most consistent results with the experimental data.

New Approach to Simulating the Absorption of Gamma Radiations Using the Monte-Carlo Method: A Computational Study

The following article has been retracted due to the investigation of complaints received against it. Mr. Mohammadali Ghorbani (corresponding author and also the last author) cheated the author’s name: Alireza Heidari. The scientific community takes a very strong view on this matter and we treat all unethical behavior such as plagiarism seriously. This paper published in Vol.3 No.3, 260-265, 2012, has been removed from this site.

A new hybrid method—combined heat flux method with Monte-Carlo method to analyze thermal radiation

A new hybrid method, Monte-Carlo-Heat-Flux （MCHF） method, was presented to analyze the radiative heat transfer of participating medium in a three-dimensional rectangular enclosure using combined the Monte-Carlo method with the heat flux method. Its accuracy and reliability was proved by comparing the computational results with exact results from classical ＂Zone Method＂.

Monte-Carlo simulation of a compact gamma-ray detector using wavelength-shifting fibers coupled to a YAP scintillation crystal

The production and transportation of fluorescent light produced in wavelength-shifting fibers （WSFs） coupled to YAP scintillation crystal is simulated using the GEANT4 codes. An advantage of the wavelength-shifting fiber readout technique over a direct readout with a position-sensitive photo-sensor is the reduced requirement for position sensitive photomultiplier tube photocathode area. With this gamma-ray detector, the gamma camera is small and flexible and has larger effective field of view and low cost. Simulation results show that a） a mean 12 of photons per 59.5 keV gamma ray interaction is produced in the WSF located nearest to the incident gamma ray, and a spatial resolution of 3.6 mm FWHM is obtained, b） a mean 27 of photons per 140 keV gamma ray interaction is produced and a spatial resolution of 3.1 mm FWHM is obtained. Results demonstrate the feasibility of this concept of a compact gamma-ray detector based on wavelength-shifting fibers readout. However, since the very low photoelectron levels, it is very important to use a photon counting device with good single photo-electron response to readout the WSFs.

Non-Regular Example of Confidence-Interval Construction

When dealing with a regular (fixed-support) one-parameter distribution, the corresponding maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) is, to a good approximation, normally distributed. But, when the support boundaries are functions of the parameter, finding good approximation for the sampling distribution of MLE (needed to construct an accurate confidence interval for the parameter’s true value) may get very challenging. We demonstrate the nature of this problem, and show how to deal with it, by a detailed study of a specific situation. We also indicate several possible ways to bypass MLE by proposing alternate estimators;these, having relatively simple sampling distributions, then make constructing a confidence interval rather routine. .

Non-Regular Example of Confidence-Interval Construction

When dealing with a regular (fixed-support) one-parameter distribution, the corresponding maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) is, to a good approximation, normally distributed. But, when the support boundaries are functions of the parameter, finding good approximation for the sampling distribution of MLE (needed to construct an accurate confidence interval for the parameter’s true value) may get very challenging. We demonstrate the nature of this problem, and show how to deal with it, by a detailed study of a specific situation. We also indicate several possible ways to bypass MLE by proposing alternate estimators;these, having relatively simple sampling distributions, then make constructing a confidence interval rather routine. .

Halo轨道转移及中途修正问题研究(英文)

This article addresses the design of the trajectory transferring from Earth to Halo orbit, and proposes a timing closed-loop strategy of correction maneuver during the transfer in the frame of circular restricted three body problem （CR3BP）. The relation between the Floquet multipliers and the magnitudes of Halo orbit is established, so that the suitable magnitude for the aerospace mission is chosen in terms of the stability of Halo orbit. The stable manifold is investigated from the Poincar6 mapping defined which is different from the previous researches, and six types of single-impulse transfer trajectories are attained from the geometry of the invariant manifolds. Based on one of the trajectories of indirect transfer which are ignored in the most of literatures, the stochastic control theory for imperfect information of the discrete linear stochastic system is applied to design the trajectory correction maneuver. The statistical dispersion analysis is performed by Monte-Carlo simulation,

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.

Rock-soil slope stability analysis by two-phase random media and finite elements

To investigate the strong random nature of the geometric interfaces between soil and rock, a rock-soil slope is considered as a two-phase random medium. A nonlinear translation of a Gaussian field is utilized to simulate the two-phase random media, such that the soil(or rock) volume fraction and the inclination of the soil layer can be examined. The finite element method with random media incorporated as the material properties is used to determine the factor of safety of the rock-soil slope. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate the statistical characteristics of the factor of safety. The failure mode of the rock-soil slope is examined by observing the maximum principal plastic strain at incipient slope failure. It is found that the critical surface of a rock-soil slope is fairly irregular, and it significantly differs from that of a pure soil slope. The factor of safety is sensitive to the soil volume faction, but it is predictable. The average factor of safety could be well predicted by the weighted harmonic average between the strength of soil and rock; the prediction model is practical and simple. Parametric studies on the inclination of the soil layer demonstrate that the most instable scenario occurs when the slope angle is consistent with the inclination of the soil layer.