MOVES模型在城市交通碳减排评估中的应用

为准确评估城市道路交叉口信号优化的碳减排效果,在实际交通调查的基础上利用MOVES模型模拟信号优化后道路车辆污染物排放的变化,对交通管控的节能减排效应进行定量分析。结果表明:信号优化不仅能有效缓解交通拥堵,提高主干道交通流的速度,还能够不同程度降低不同污染物的排放总量,尤其是CO_(2)的排放量;虽然信号优化后不同污染物排放总量都在降低,但对于道路行驶的基数较小的车型,其污染物排放趋势有可能增加;不同污染物对信号优化的敏感性不同,因此减排效果不同,但相同车型的不同污染物的减排趋势相似。通过详细分析模型参数的本地化过程和排放结果,所研究的污染物排放测算方法更符合实际情况,可以为其他城市交通管控的减排效益研究提供参考,为城市的低碳绿色发展提供理论基础。

Numerical analysis of moving train induced vibrations on tunnel,surrounding ground and structure

This study is focused on the effect of vibration induced by moving trains in tunnels on the surrounding ground and structures.A three-dimensional finite element model is established for a one-track railway tunnel and an adjacent twelve-storey building frame by using commercial software Midas GTS-NX(2019)and Midas Gen.This study considered the moving load effect of a complete train,which varies with space as well as with time.The effect of factors such as train speed,overburden pressure on the tunnel and variation in soil properties are studied in the time domain.As a result,the variations in horizontal and vertical acceleration for two different sites,i.e.,the free ground surface(without structure)and the area containing the structure,are compared.Also,the displacement pattern of the raft foundation is plotted for different train velocities.At lower speeds,the heaving phenomenon is negligible,but as the speed increases,both the heaving and differential settlement increase in the foundation.This study demonstrates that the effect of moving train vibrations should be considered in the design of new nearby structures and proper ground improvement should be considered for existing structures.

Semi-analytical investigation of heat transfer in a porous convective radiative moving longitudinal fin exposed to magnetic field in the presence of a shape-dependent trihybrid nanofluid

The thermal examination of a non-integer-ordered mobile fin with a magnetism in the presence of a trihybrid nanofluid(Fe_3O_4-Au-Zn-blood) is carried out. Three types of nanoparticles, each having a different shape, are considered. These shapes include spherical(Fe_3O_4), cylindrical(Au), and platelet(Zn) configurations. The combination approach is utilized to evaluate the physical and thermal characteristics of the trihybrid and hybrid nanofluids, excluding the thermal conductivity and dynamic viscosity. These two properties are inferred by means of the interpolation method based on the volume fraction of nanoparticles. The governing equation is transformed into a dimensionless form, and the Adomian decomposition Sumudu transform method(ADSTM) is adopted to solve the conundrum of a moving fin immersed in a trihybrid nanofluid. The obtained results agree well with those numerical simulation results, indicating that this research is reliable. The influence of diverse factors on the thermal overview for varying noninteger values of γ is analyzed and presented in graphical representations. Furthermore, the fluctuations in the heat transfer concerning the pertinent parameters are studied. The results show that the heat flux in the presence of the combination of spherical, cylindrical, and platelet nanoparticles is higher than that in the presence of the combination of only spherical and cylindrical nanoparticles. The temperature at the fin tip increases by 0.705 759% when the value of the Peclet number increases by 400%, while decreases by 11.825 13% when the value of the Hartman number increases by 400%.

Numerical analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced embankment performance under moving loads

The performance of geosynthetic-reinforced embankments under traffic moving loads is always a hotspot in the geotechnical engineering field.A three-dimensional(3D)model of a geosynthetic-reinforced embankment without drainage consolidation was established using the finite element software ABAQUS.In this model,the traffic loads were simulated by two moving loads of rectangular pattern,and their amplitude,range,and moving speed were realized by a Fortran subroutine.The embankment fill was simulated by an equivalent linear viscoelastic model,which can reflect its viscoelasticity.The geogrid was simulated by the truss element,and the geocell was simulated by the membrane element.Infinite elements were utilized to weaken the boundary effect caused by the model geometry at the boundaries.Validation of the established numerical model was conducted by comparing the predicted deformations in the cross-section of the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment with those from the existing literature.On this basis,the dynamic stress and strain distribution in the pavement structure layer of the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment under a moving load was also analyzed.Finally,a parametric study was conducted to examine the influences of the different types of reinforcement,overload,and the moving load velocity on the geosynthetic-reinforced embankment.

Efficient 2-D MUSIC algorithm for super-resolution moving target tracking based on an FMCW radar

Frequency modulated continuous wave(FMCW)radar is an advantageous sensor scheme for target estimation and environmental perception.However,existing algorithms based on discrete Fourier transform(DFT),multiple signal classification(MUSIC)and compressed sensing,etc.,cannot achieve both low complexity and high resolution simultaneously.This paper proposes an efficient 2-D MUSIC algorithm for super-resolution target estimation/tracking based on FMCW radar.Firstly,we enhance the efficiency of 2-D MUSIC azimuth-range spectrum estimation by incorporating 2-D DFT and multi-level resolution searching strategy.Secondly,we apply the gradient descent method to tightly integrate the spatial continuity of object motion into spectrum estimation when processing multi-epoch radar data,which improves the efficiency of continuous target tracking.These two approaches have improved the algorithm efficiency by nearly 2-4 orders of magnitude without losing accuracy and resolution.Simulation experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the algorithm in both single-epoch estimation and multi-epoch tracking scenarios.

Random vibration analysis of FGM plates subjected to moving load using a refined stochastic finite element method

The article introduces a finite element procedure using the bilinear quadrilateral element or four-node rectangular element(namely Q4 element) based on a refined first-order shear deformation theory(rFSDT) and Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), so-called refined stochastic finite element method to investigate the random vibration of functionally graded material(FGM) plates subjected to the moving load.The advantage of the proposed method is to use r-FSDT to improve the accuracy of classical FSDT, satisfy the stress-free condition at the plate boundaries, and combine with MCS to analyze the vibration of the FGM plate when the parameter inputs are random quantities following a normal distribution. The obtained results show that the distribution characteristics of the vibration response of the FGM plate depend on the standard deviation of the input parameters and the velocity of the moving load.Furthermore, the numerical results in this study are expected to contribute to improving the understanding of FGM plates subjected to moving loads with uncertain input parameters.

High-order Bragg forward scattering and frequency shift of low-frequency underwater acoustic field by moving rough sea surface

Acoustic scattering modulation caused by an undulating sea surface on the space-time dimension seriously affects underwater detection and target recognition.Herein,underwater acoustic scattering modulation from a moving rough sea surface is studied based on integral equation and parabolic equation.And with the principles of grating and constructive interference,the mechanism of this acoustic scattering modulation is explained.The periodicity of the interference of moving rough sea surface will lead to the interference of the scattering field at a series of discrete angles,which will form comb-like and frequency-shift characteristics on the intensity and the frequency spectrum of the acoustic scattering field,respectively,which is a high-order Bragg scattering phenomenon.Unlike the conventional Doppler effect,the frequency shifts of the Bragg scattering phenomenon are multiples of the undulating sea surface frequency and are independent of the incident sound wave frequency.Therefore,even if a low-frequency underwater acoustic field is incident,it will produce obvious frequency shifts.Moreover,under the action of ideal sinusoidal waves,swells,fully grown wind waves,unsteady wind waves,or mixed waves,different moving rough sea surfaces create different acoustic scattering processes and possess different frequency shift characteristics.For the swell wave,which tends to be a single harmonic wave,the moving rough sea surface produces more obvious high-order scattering and frequency shifts.The same phenomena are observed on the sea surface under fully grown wind waves,however,the frequency shift slightly offsets the multiple peak frequencies of the wind wave spectrum.Comparing with the swell and fully-grown wind waves,the acoustic scattering and frequency shift are not obvious for the sea surface under unsteady wind waves.

Evaluation of Moving Grid Adjustment (MGA) Method in Field Variation Control

Spatial variation is often encountered when large scale field trials are conducted which can result in biased estimation or prediction of treatment (i.e. genotype) values. An effective removal of spatial variation is needed to ensure unbiased estimation or prediction and thus increase the accuracy of field data evaluation. A moving grid adjustment (MGA) method, which was proposed by Technow, was evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation for its statistical properties regarding field spatial variation control. Our simulation results showed that the MGA method can effectively account for field spatial variation if it does exist;however, this method will not change phenotype results if field spatial variation does not exist. The MGA method was applied to a large-scale cotton field trial data set with two representative agronomic traits: lint yield (strong field spatial pattern) and lint percentage (no field spatial pattern). The results suggested that the MGA method was able to effectively separate the spatial variation including blocking effects from random error variation for lint yield while the adjusted data remained almost identical to the original phenotypic data. With application of the MGA method, the estimated variance for residuals was significantly reduced (62.2% decrease) for lint yield while more genetic variation (29.7% increase) was detected compared to the original data analysis subject to the conventional randomized complete block design analysis. On the other hand, the results were almost identical for lint percentage with and without the application of the MGA method. Therefore, the MGA method can be a useful addition to enhance data analysis when field spatial pattern exists.

A High-Accuracy Curve Boundary Recognition Method Based on the Lattice Boltzmann Method and Immersed Moving Boundary Method

Applying numerical simulation technology to investigate fluid-solid interaction involving complex curved bound-aries is vital in aircraft design,ocean,and construction engineering.However,current methods such as Lattice Boltzmann(LBM)and the immersion boundary method based on solid ratio(IMB)have limitations in identifying custom curved boundaries.Meanwhile,IBM based on velocity correction(IBM-VC)suffers from inaccuracies and numerical instability.Therefore,this study introduces a high-accuracy curve boundary recognition method(IMB-CB),which identifies boundary nodes by moving the search box,and corrects the weighting function in LBM by calculating the solid ratio of the boundary nodes,achieving accurate recognition of custom curve boundaries.In addition,curve boundary image and dot methods are utilized to verify IMB-CB.The findings revealed that IMB-CB can accurately identify the boundary,showing an error of less than 1.8%with 500 lattices.Also,the flow in the custom curve boundary and aerodynamic characteristics of the NACA0012 airfoil are calculated and compared to IBM-VC.Results showed that IMB-CB yields lower lift and drag coefficient errors than IBM-VC,with a 1.45%drag coefficient error.In addition,the characteristic curve of IMB-CB is very stable,whereas that of IBM-VC is not.For the moving boundary problem,LBM-IMB-CB with discrete element method(DEM)is capable of accurately simulating the physical phenomena of multi-moving particle flow in complex curved pipelines.This research proposes a new curve boundary recognition method,which can significantly promote the stability and accuracy of fluid-solid interaction simulations and thus has huge applications in engineering.

Prediction and Output Estimation of Pattern Moving in Non-Newtonian Mechanical Systems Based on Probability Density Evolution

A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.

Qingdao Recommendations for the Protection and Return of Cultural Objects Removed from Colonial Contexts or Acquired by Other Unjustifiable or Unethical Means

The International Conference on the Protection and Return of Cultural Objects Removed from Colonial Contexts was held in Qingdao,China on June 20,2024.representatives from 28 countries and 2 international organizations attended the conference or shared ideas and communicated through video.

Nonlinear dynamic modeling of planar moving Timoshenko beam considering non-rigid non-elastic axial effects

Due to the importance of vibration effects on the functional accuracy of mechanical systems,this research aims to develop a precise model of a nonlinearly vibrating single-link mobile flexible manipulator.The manipulator consists of an elastic arm,a rotary motor,and a rigid carrier,and undergoes general in-plane rigid body motion along with elastic transverse deformation.To accurately model the elastic behavior,Timoshenko’s beam theory is used to describe the flexible arm,which accounts for rotary inertia and shear deformation effects.By applying Newton’s second law,the nonlinear governing equations of motion for the manipulator are derived as a coupled system of ordinary differential equations(ODEs)and partial differential equations(PDEs).Then,the assumed mode method(AMM)is used to solve this nonlinear system of governing equations with appropriate shape functions.The assumed modes can be obtained after solving the characteristic equation of a Timoshenko beam with clamped boundary conditions at one end and an attached mass/inertia at the other.In addition,the effect of the transverse vibration of the inextensible arm on its axial behavior is investigated.Despite the axial rigidity,the effect makes the rigid body dynamics invalid for the axial behavior of the arm.Finally,numerical simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the developed model,and the results are compared with those obtained by the finite element approach.The comparison confirms the validity of the proposed dynamic model for the system.According to the mentioned features,this model can be reliable for investigating the system’s vibrational behavior and implementing vibration control algorithms.

Review on dynamic analysis of road pavements under moving vehicles and plane strain conditions

This paper reviews works on the dynamic analysis of flexible and rigid pavements under moving vehicles on the basis of continuum-based plane strain models and linear theories.The purpose of this review is to provide in-formation about the existing works on the subject,critically discuss them and make suggestions for further research.The reviewed papers are presented on the basis of the various models for pavement-vehicle systems and the various methods for dynamically analyzing these systems.Flexible pavements are modeled by a homogeneous or layered half-plane with isotropic or anisotropic and linear elastic,viscoelastic or poroelastic material behavior.Rigid pavements are modeled by a beam or plate on a homogeneous or layered half-plane with material properties like the ones for flexible pavements.The vehicles are modeled as concentrated or distributed over a finite area loads moving with constant or time dependent speed.The above pavement-vehicle models are dynamically analyzed by analytical,analytical/numerical or purely numerical methods working in the time or frequency domain.Representative examples are presented to illustrate the models and methods of analysis,demonstrate their merits and assess the effects of the various parameters on pavement response.The paper closes with con-clusions and suggestions for further research in the area.The significance of this research effort has to do with the presentation of the existing literature on the subject in a critical and easy to understand way with the aid of representative examples and the identification of new research areas.

A Method to Obtain the Moving Speed of Uncooperative Target Based on Only Two Measurements

The existing research results show that a fixed single station must conduct three consecutive frequency shift measurements and obtain the target’s moving speed by constructing two frequency difference equations. This article proposes a new method that requires only two consecutive measurements. While using the azimuth measurement to obtain the angular difference between two radial distances, it also conducts two consecutive Doppler frequency shift measurements at the same target azimuth. On the basis of this measurement, a frequency difference equation is first constructed and solved jointly with the Doppler frequency shift equation. By eliminating the velocity variable and using the measured angular difference to obtain the target’s lead angle, the target’s velocity can be solved by using the Doppler frequency shift equation again. The new method avoids the condition that the target must move equidistantly, which not only provides an achievable method for engineering applications but also lays a good foundation for further exploring the use of steady-state signals to achieve passive positioning.

基于MOVES的高速公路客运交通排放特性研究

研究了高速公路客车污染物排放时空分布特性,为政府相关部门制定合理的交通管制措施提供理论支持,从而减轻客车排放对高速公路及周围环境造成的危害。以2021年云南省高速公路通行客车收费数据为基础,结合云南省客车技术特征、环境条件及燃油特性等参数对MOVES模型进行本土化修正,从而计算高速公路客车排放因子,结合车流量及行驶里程建立2021年云南省排放清单,并采取自下而上的方法和ArcGIS技术对排放清单进行时空分布分析。结果表明,各项污染物主要来源于客一。在时间分布上,在工作日期间客车污染物排放量在8时及18时左右出现双高峰结构,而非工作日期间,在14时到18时之间一直处于较高的排放水平;在空间分布上,污染物分布以昆明市为中心向四周扩散,离昆明市越远的地方,污染物排放分担率越小。

Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.

Reliability-Based Topology Optimization of Fail-Safe Structures Using Moving Morphable Bars

This paper proposes an effective reliability design optimizationmethod for fail-safe topology optimization(FSTO)considering uncertainty based on the moving morphable bars method to establish the ideal balance between cost and robustness,reliability and structural safety.To this end,a performancemeasure approach(PMA)-based doubleloop optimization algorithmis developed tominimize the relative volume percentage while achieving the reliability criterion.To ensure the compliance value of the worst failure case can better approximate the quantified design requirement,a p-norm constraint approach with correction parameter is introduced.Finally,the significance of accounting for uncertainty in the fail-safe design is illustrated by contrasting the findings of the proposed reliabilitybased topology optimization(RBTO)method with those of the deterministic design method in three typical examples.Monte Carlo simulation shows that the relative error of the reliability index of the optimized structure does not exceed 3%.

Simultaneous resonance of an axially moving ferromagnetic thin plate under a line load in a time-varying magnetic field

In this paper,the simultaneous resonance of a ferromagnetic thin plate in a time-varying magnetic field,having axial speed and being subjected to a periodic line load,is studied.Based on the large deflection theory of thin plates and electromagnetic field theory,the nonlinear vibration differential equation of the plate is obtained by using the Hamilton′s principle and the Galerkin method.Then the boundary condition in which the longer opposite sides are clamped and hinged is considered.The dimensionless nonlinear differential equations are solved by using the method of multiple scales,and the analytical solution is given.In addition,the stability analysis is also carried out by using Lyapunov stability theory.Through numerical analysis,the variation curves of system resonance amplitude with frequency tuning parameter,magnetic field strength and external excitation amplitude are obtained.Different parameters that have significant effects on the response of the system,such as the thickness,the axial velocity,the magnetic field intensity,the position,and the frequency of external excitation,are considered and analyzed.The results show that the system has multiple solution regions and obvious nonlinear coupled characteristics.

Constrained Moving Path Following Control for UAV With Robust Control Barrier Function

This paper studies the moving path following(MPF)problem for fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)under output constraints and wind disturbances.The vehicle is required to converge to a reference path moving with respect to the inertial frame,while the path following error is not expected to violate the predefined boundaries.Differently from existing moving path following guidance laws,the proposed method removes complex geometric transformation by formulating the moving path following problem into a second-order time-varying control problem.A nominal moving path following guidance law is designed with disturbances and their derivatives estimated by high-order disturbance observers.To guarantee that the path following error will not exceed the prescribed bounds,a robust control barrier function is developed and incorporated into controller design with quadratic program based framework.The proposed method does not require the initial position of the UAV to be within predefined boundaries.And the safety margin concept makes error-constraint be respected even if in a noisy environment.The proposed guidance law is validated through numerical simulations of shipboard landing and hardware-in-theloop(HIL)experiments.

Angular disturbance prediction for countermeasure launcher in active protection system of moving armored vehicle based on an ensemble learning method

The active protection system(APS),usually installed on the turret of armored vehicles,can significantly improve the vehicles’survivability on the battlefield by launching countermeasure munitions to actively intercept incoming threats.However,uncertainty over the launch angle of the countermeasure is increased due to angular disturbances when the off-road armored vehicle is moving over rough terrain.Therefore,accurate and comprehensive angular disturbance prediction is essential to the real-time monitoring of the countermeasure launch angle.In this paper,a deep ensemble learning(DEL)-based approach is proposed to predict the angular disturbances of the countermeasure launcher in the APS based on previous time-series information.In view of the intricate temporal attribute of angular disturbance prediction,the sampling information of historical time series measured by an inertial navigation device is adopted as the input of the developed DEL model.Then,the recursive multi-step(RMS)prediction strategy and multi-output(MO)prediction strategy are combined with the DEL model to perform the final angular disturbance prediction for the countermeasure launcher in the APS of a moving armored vehicle.The proposed DEL model is validated by using the different datasets from real experiments.The results reveal that this approach can be used to accurately predict angular disturbances,with the maximum absolute error of each DOF less than 0.1°.