This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scen...This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.展开更多
Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and short...Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and shortcomings of urban expansion management strategies. A three-step method was applied to Yinchuan Plain in the northwestern of China, including(1)analyzing the relationship between landscape pattern and ecosystem service values through mathematical statistics;(2) predicting landscape pattern and ecosystem services change under different scenarios based on cellular automaton model(SLEUTH-3r model); and(3) designing and validating optimized scenario through integrating historical analysis experiments and future multi-comparison suggestions. Results have suggested that landscape composition and configuration can significantly affect regional ecosystem service values, especially the connectivity and shape of landscape. Compact urban growth policy and medium environment protection policy are the appropriate setting for urban expansion plan. Optimization validation of the combined designed scenario implied the reliability of this method. Our results highlighted the significance of integrating application of landscape pattern analysis, ecosystem service value evaluation,model simulation and multi-scenario prediction in urban planning.展开更多
Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense int...Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures.The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first,the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form;second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.展开更多
文摘This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant number 41371176]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[Grant number lzujbky_2017_it91]
文摘Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and shortcomings of urban expansion management strategies. A three-step method was applied to Yinchuan Plain in the northwestern of China, including(1)analyzing the relationship between landscape pattern and ecosystem service values through mathematical statistics;(2) predicting landscape pattern and ecosystem services change under different scenarios based on cellular automaton model(SLEUTH-3r model); and(3) designing and validating optimized scenario through integrating historical analysis experiments and future multi-comparison suggestions. Results have suggested that landscape composition and configuration can significantly affect regional ecosystem service values, especially the connectivity and shape of landscape. Compact urban growth policy and medium environment protection policy are the appropriate setting for urban expansion plan. Optimization validation of the combined designed scenario implied the reliability of this method. Our results highlighted the significance of integrating application of landscape pattern analysis, ecosystem service value evaluation,model simulation and multi-scenario prediction in urban planning.
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(15GJ003-278)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71501182)
文摘Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures.The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first,the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form;second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.
