Discrete decision model and multi-agent simulation of the Liang Zong two-chain hierarchical organization in a complex project

Different from the organization structure of complex projects in Western countries, the Liang Zong hierarchical organization structure of complex projects in China has two different chains, the chief-engineer chain and the general-director chain,to handle the trade-off between technical and management decisions. However, previous works on organization search have mainly focused on the single-chain hierarchical organization in which all decisions are regarded as homogeneous. The heterogeneity and the interdependency between technical decisions and management decisions have been neglected. A two-chain hierarchical organization structure mapped from a real complex project is constructed. Then, a discrete decision model for a Liang Zong two-chain hierarchical organization in an NK model framework is proposed. This model proves that this kind of organization structure can reduce the search space by a large amount and that the search process should reach a final stable state more quickly. For a more complicated decision mechanism, a multi-agent simulation based on the above NK model is used to explore the effect of the two-chain organization structure on the speed, stability, and performance of the search process. The results provide three insights into how, compared with the single-chain hierarchical organization, the two-chain organization can improve the search process: it can reduce the number of iterations efficiently; the search is more stable because the search space is a smoother hill-like fitness landscape; in general, the search performance can be improved.However, when the organization structure is very complicated, the performance of a two-chain organization is inferior to that of a single-chain organization. These findings about the efficiency of the unique Chinese-style organization structure can be used to guide organization design for complex projects.

A Fundamental Study on Multi-agent Pedestrian Model Based on Risk Avoidance Behavior during Road Blockage and Evacuation Simulation of Regional Urban Disaster

Regional cities in Japan are at the risk of experiencing big fire accidents or earthquakes every day.However,neither the number nor the capacity of shelters has increased because local governments might not consider them owing to budget shortfall.By contrast,wide-area evacuation simulations can easily provide an antagonizing image of regional urban disasters.After a disaster,the city collapses and the evacuation routes are closed;consequently,evacuees feel anxious and they cannot move as usual.This anxiety behavior has not been considered in previous related studies and simulations.In this study,a wide-area evacuation simulation is developed;this model can not only calculate the possibility of blocking escape routes when the city is broken but also provide safe and more realistic evacuation plans before a disaster occurs by incorporating into the simulation the risk avoidance behaviors of evacuees from road blockage,such as“the route re-seeking behavior”and“the shelter re-selecting behavior”.

Assessment of the Benefits of Targeted Interventions for Pandemic Control in China Based on Machine Learning Method and Web Service for COVID-19 Policy Simulation

Taking the Chinese city of Xiamen as an example,simulation and quantitative analysis were performed on the transmissions of the Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19)and the influence of intervention combinations to assist policymakers in the preparation of targeted response measures.A machine learning model was built to estimate the effectiveness of interventions and simulate transmission in different scenarios.The comparison was conducted between simulated and real cases in Xiamen.A web interface with adjustable parameters,including choice of intervention measures,intervention weights,vaccination,and viral variants,was designed for users to run the simulation.The total case number was set as the outcome.The cumulative number was 4,614,641 without restrictions and 78 under the strictest intervention set.Simulation with the parameters closest to the real situation of the Xiamen outbreak was performed to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model.The simulation model generated a duration of 52 days before the daily cases dropped to zero and the final cumulative case number of 200,which were 25 more days and 36 fewer cases than the real situation,respectively.Targeted interventions could benefit the prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak while safeguarding public health and mitigating impacts on people’s livelihood.

A Cognitive Model for Multi-Agent Collaboration

In multi-agent system, agents work together for solving complex tasks and reaching common goals. In this paper, we propose a cognitive model for multi-agent collaboration. Based on the cognitive model, an agent architecture will also be presented. This agent has BDI, awareness and policy driven mechanism concurrently. These approaches are integrated in one agent that will make multi-agent collaboration more practical in the real world.

基于Multi-Agent分布式光伏并网利益协调仿真研究

随着光伏产业的稳步推进,政府财政补贴面临越来越大的资金压力。如何有效调整产业补贴政策,成为推进光伏产业健康发展的一个迫切问题。基于此,提出多Agent的分布式光伏并网主体仿真,构建仿真模型,分析仿真结果。仿真结果表明:政府可以降低发电补贴和回购电价相结合的方式调整政策策略,保证并网主体对光伏并网持积极态度,降低产业发展对政府补贴的依赖性,推动产业良性发展。

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

Simulation of Hail and Soil Type Effects on Crop Yield Losses in Kansas,USA

Computer simulation was used for predictive analysis of the effects of weather and soil type on crop yield in the U.S.crop insurance program.The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate(EPIC) model was modified to include hail weather events,which completed the modifications necessary to simulate the four most frequent causes of crop yield loss(hail,excessive wet,excessive cold,and excessive dry) associated with soil type in Kansas,USA.At the region level,per hectare yields were simulated for corn,wheat,soybean,and sorghum.We concluded that it was possible to predict crop yields through computer simulation with greater than 93% accuracy.The hail damage model test indicated EPIC could predict hail-soil-induced yield losses reasonably well(R2 > 0.6).The investigation of soil type influence on dryland sorghum and wheat production indicated that Wymore silty clay loam soil and Kenoma silt loam produced the highest sorghum yields statistically;Kuma silt loam,Roxbury silt loam,Crete silty clay loam,and Woodson silt soils produced the second highest sorghum yields statistically;and Richfiled silt loam,Wells loam,and Canadian sandy loam produced the lowest sorghum yields.By contrast,wheat production showed less sensitivity to soil type variation.The less sensitive response of wheat yields to the soil type could be largely due to the unconsidered small-scale variability of soil features.

Computational Modeling of Government Policy to Attain Long-Term Higher Voter Turnout for Sustainable Democracy

People power is the fundamental concept of democracy and power of the people is exercised though voting. People decide who should be elected to make decisions for them. However, if people do not properly participate in the voting process and only two-thirds of all eligible voters participate in an election, the democratic institution loses its credibility and becomes vulnerable. This paper investigates various changes in voting institutions throughout the USAwith a simulation model that analyzes the efficacy of such methods to attain higher voter turnout.

Monetary Policy Effects and Output Growth in Malawi: Using a Small Macroeconometric Model

This study tries to develop and use a small macroeconometric model to capture the main short-term macro dynamics and to forecast major macroeconomic variables of the Malawian economy. The results show that a reduction in the policy rate leads to a fall in the lending rate, but with an increase in money supply, and with an insignificant impact on output growth. The results suggest that monetary authorities in Malawi have to make a choice between the objectives of maintaining lower money supply and lowering the lending rate. The results also suggest that, despite the Reserve Bank of Malawi Act of 1989 stipulating that monetary authorities should pursue both price and high growth and employment objectives, our results reveal that price stability is the principal objective of monetary policy in the country. Suggesting that monetary authorities in the country should not only place more emphasis on the objective of stabilization and achieving low inflation, but also focus on supporting strong, sustained and shared growth. To some extent further suggesting that emphasis should be placed on policies and strategies aimed at structurally transforming the Malawian economy so that the monetary policies’ impact should translate into an increase in the country’s output and growth. Further suggesting enhanced effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.

重大节假日出行方式选择模型研究

为优化节假日高速公路免费政策,选取出行者变量、出行方式相关变量和行程特性变量作为效用变量,构建了出行方式位于上层、出行距离位于下层的NL模型。利用弧弹性法分析不同收费标准和收费里程条件下出行者的行为特性,并利用场景仿真评价多种收费组合对出行方式的影响。研究结果表明:提高收费标准,汽车出行比例会显著降低,且高速铁路承担了大部分的转移交通量。随着收费里程的增加,出行者逐渐倾向于出行成本较小的普通铁路。对长距离出行收费可以提升公共交通分担率,缓解节假日高速公路的交通拥堵。

基于混合仿真试验的建筑拆除废弃物管理减碳减排效益研究

建筑拆除废弃物的增加对城市低碳可持续发展造成了严重阻碍。研究旨在探讨以“低碳化”和“无废化”为目标的建筑拆除废弃物管理政策,采用基于主体仿真和系统动力学方法的混合仿真模型,借助Anylogic软件和Java编程语言构建拆除废弃物管理的碳排放仿真试验平台,以评估不同管理策略的减废与减碳效果。研究结果显示:在建筑拆除废弃物的管理过程中,现场管理阶段的碳排放量与废弃物排放量最大,应重点改善;利益主体之间的互动有助于拆除公司向绿色拆除公司转型,提升建筑拆除废弃物管理的减排和减碳效果;源头减量、分类分拣、从量收费和宣传教育政策的组合政策效果最佳,其中的源头减量政策在减碳减排方面发挥了显著作用。研究成果有助于政府制定相关低碳管理政策,推动实现“碳中和”和“无废城市”的目标。

“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标何以兼顾?

为兼顾“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标实现,文章构建了包含环境系统的NK-DSGE模型,同步引入财政收入与支出政策工具、货币政策工具以及碳税,在对中国季度宏观数据进行校准和估计的基础上,分析了宏观政策工具与碳税联合实施的政策效果,讨论了碳税税率变化、碳税规则变动对联合政策效果的影响及造成的社会福利损失。模拟结果显示,积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策与碳税配合对“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标的实现优势更大。其中,财政政策在促增长方面具有优势,货币政策在控制通货膨胀方面发挥重要作用,碳税政策在促进碳减排方面效果显著。经进一步研究发现,提高碳税税率会造成社会福利损失增加,政府可通过调整碳税规则、改变政策目标偏好实现对社会福利的帕累托改进。

Analysis of Commuting Modal Shift in Consideration of Social Interaction of Consciousness for Environment

It is the matter for achievement of the low carbon transport system that the excessive use of private vehicles can be controlled appropriately.Not only improvement of service level of modes except private vehicle,but also consciousness for environmental problem of individual trip maker is important for eco-commuting promotion.On the other hand,consciousness for environment would be changed by influence of other person.Accordingly,it is aimed in the study that the structure of decision-making process for modal shift to the eco-commuting mode in the local city is described considering environmental consciousness and social interaction.For the purpose,the consciousness for the environment problem and the travel behavior of the commuter at the suburban area in the local city are investigated by the questionnaire survey.The covariance structure about the eco-consciousness is analyzed with the database of the questionnaire survey by structural equation modeling.As the result,it can be confirmed with the structural equation model that the individual environmental consciousness is strongly related with the intention of self-sacrifice and is influenced with the local interaction of the individual connections.On the other hand,the intention of modal shift for the commuting mode is analyzed with the database of the questionnaire survey.It can be found out that the environmental consciousness is not statistically significant for commuting mode choice with the present poor level of service of public transport.However,the intention of self-sacrifice for the prevention of the global warming is statistically confirmed as the factor of modal shift with the operation of eco-commuting bus service with the RP/SP integrated estimation method.As the result,the multi-agent simulation system with social interaction model for eco consciousness is developed to measure the effect of the eco-commuting promotion.For the purpose,the carbon dioxide emission is estimated based on traffic demand and road network condition in the traffic environment model.On the other hand,the relation between agents is defined based on the small world network.The proposed multi-agent simulation is applied to measure the effect of the eco-commuting promotion such as improvement of level of service on the public transport or education of eco-consciousness.The effect of the promotion plan can be observed with the proposed multi-agent system.Finally,it can be concluded that the proposed multi-agent simulation with social interaction for eco-consciousness is useful for planning of eco-commuting promotion.

The Differentiated Effect of Administrative Policy in China’s Housing Market——Based on the Heterogeneous Households Multi-Agent Model

Since 2010,Chinese government has introduced a series of administrative policies to limit speculation in the housing market to stabilize price fluctuations and keep the housing market in a healthy state of development.In order to investigate whether administrative policy can play its due role,this paper constructs a comprehensive bottom-up housing market heterogeneous households multiagent model(HHMAM)to undertake research on the differentiated effect of administrative policy in different cities.The empirical studies find that:1)Administrative policy that increases interest rates will cause housing prices to continue to decline in the long term,but they will resume a rising trend after reaching the lowest point;2)If the government cancels a property-purchasing limitation,housing prices will continue to rise;and 3)investors tend to invest in 1st-tier cities due to the high demand and greater likelihood of appreciation in these cities.

深度确定性策略梯度算法耦合模型驱动的行人过街仿真

行人仿真在公共安全研究中扮演着重要的角色,但如何增强仿真环境中智能体的真实性一直是一个难题.本工作提出了一种深度确定性策略梯度-行人二维优化速度模型耦合驱动算法,并对无信号交叉口行人过街行为进行仿真.通过构建考虑无速度差项和有速度差项2种行人二维优化速度模型的策略探索方案,揭示出带有速度差项行人二维优化速度模型的耦合驱动算法倾向于灵活地选择相对安全的动作,从而使行人选择动作的策略也更优,达到了完全避免行人碰撞、确保行人安全的功能.

基于能源政策模拟模型的广州市2050年实现碳中和的路径研究

在中国快速城镇化进程中,为尽早推动城市层级的碳中和路径规划工作并作出相应行动,须重点关注城市电力、交通、工业、建筑等行业的能源政策目标制定,因此,以广州市为对象,通过构建能源政策模拟模型,设置基准情景、政策情景和碳中和情景模拟广州市到2050年的能源消费和碳排放情况,分析其重点部门的减排潜力,并评估碳中和情景下各项政策措施的减排贡献。结果显示:在碳中和情景下,广州市能源消费将于2030年达峰,碳排放量将于2026年达峰,到2050年全市碳排放将降至848万t,其中有611万t来自交通领域;电力部门的脱碳将是广州市实现碳中和最重要的途径,碳减排潜力由大到小的其他部门依次为交通、工业、制氢业和建筑;累计碳减排贡献最大的5项政策依次为电力系统零碳化、建筑能效标准提升、交通领域生物燃料替代、工业能效标准提升和氢燃料交通工具销售占比提升。

当前形势下的两岸行业标准共通政策影响研究——基于GTAP模型的实证模拟

在分析两岸行业标准共通模式及存在问题的基础上,通过全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟在中美贸易摩擦升级背景下,面对台湾地区标准化政策倾向,两岸行业标准共通政策对两岸及全球经济、社会福利、进出口贸易等方面都会产生影响。实证结果表明,中国内地持续贯彻落实两岸行业标准共通政策可以缓解中美贸易摩擦对经济及社会福利等方面的冲击。如果两岸共同推动标准共通,不仅能提升两岸经济和福利水平,而且可以抵消中美贸易摩擦的负面影响,顺应两岸经济融合发展大趋势并符合两岸共同利益。

基于系统动力学的NQI效能仿真研究——以浙江省为例

国家质量基础设施(NQI)融合计量、标准、认证认可和检验检测等要素,对促进国家或地区经济社会发展具有重要意义。考虑到研究区域的代表性和数据的可得性,本文以浙江省为例,运用系统动力学方法在明确NQI效能目标基础上构建NQI效能模型,采用VensimPLE软件对其NQI效能相关政策进行了仿真研究。研究设置的科技、财政和人才等3项政策工具均得到有效验证,表明NQI效能水平与政策的调整、实施高度相关。其中,科技政策和财政政策对于NQI效能的正向促进作用相较于人才政策更为显著,并随着政策实施强度的增加,NQI效能的增长空间效果愈发凸显。