Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.

Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Service Value in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area,China

As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.

Changes in demand and supply of ecosystem services under scenarios of future land use in Vorarlberg, Austria

Ecosystem services(ES)are highly impacted by human-induced land-use change.Progressive urbanization and agricultural land abandonment in Western Europe necessitate assessments of future land-change impacts on ES to ensure sustainable service management.The present study aims at evaluating future demand and supply of three key services(flood protection,nearby recreation and biodiversity)in the mountainous region of Vorarlberg,Austria.We mapped the ES for the referenced time step 2016 and two scenarios for 2050,assuming the continuation of current land-change trends and pressure on landscape development.Results for the referenced landscape in 2016 show the highest ES supply for intermediate levels,while ES supply was low in the lowlands and valley bottoms and in high-elevation areas.We found a high positive correlation of ES with the distribution of forested areas.In contrast,service demand was highest in lowelevation areas and decreased with increasing elevation.This indicates that densely settled and intensively used agricultural areas currently suffer from ES undersupply.The projected future development of land use showed an increase in both supply and demand of the selected ES.The overall service supply increased more than the respective demand due to some reforestation of open land.As forests were found to be important synergistic areas for overall service provision,we expect decreasing demand on related services.Locally,demand was found to exceed the supply of ES,especially in the densely populated Rhine valley-requiring further policy interventions.Such ES-related information may contribute to regional policy making and ensure the long-term provision of ESs for future generations.

Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

Integrating ecosystem services evaluation and landscape pattern analysis into urban planning based on scenario prediction and regression model

Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and shortcomings of urban expansion management strategies. A three-step method was applied to Yinchuan Plain in the northwestern of China, including(1)analyzing the relationship between landscape pattern and ecosystem service values through mathematical statistics;(2) predicting landscape pattern and ecosystem services change under different scenarios based on cellular automaton model(SLEUTH-3r model); and(3) designing and validating optimized scenario through integrating historical analysis experiments and future multi-comparison suggestions. Results have suggested that landscape composition and configuration can significantly affect regional ecosystem service values, especially the connectivity and shape of landscape. Compact urban growth policy and medium environment protection policy are the appropriate setting for urban expansion plan. Optimization validation of the combined designed scenario implied the reliability of this method. Our results highlighted the significance of integrating application of landscape pattern analysis, ecosystem service value evaluation,model simulation and multi-scenario prediction in urban planning.

Using modified Soil Conservation Service curve number method to simulate the role of forest in flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River in China

To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.

An Overview of Interactive Immersive Services

Immersive services are the typical emerging services in current IMT-2020 network.With the development of network evolution,real-time interactive applications emerge one after another.This article provides an overview on immersive services which focus on real-time interaction.The scenarios,framework,requirements,key technologies,and issues of interactive immersive service are presented.

Multiusers Parallel Competitive Channel Protocol Based on Unsaturated Service

In order to enhance the area throughput of next generation wireless local area network(WLAN)in high density scenarios,orthogonal frequency division multiple access(OFDMA)has been adopted as one of the key technologies in the next generation WLAN communication standards.However,the performance of the existing media access control(MAC)degrades significantly under unsaturated services.Therefore,this paper proposes a multi-user parallel contention channel MAC(MU-MAC)based on unsaturated services,which can effectively reduce the channel access conflict and improve the OFDMA access efficiency of cluster member nodes.On this basis,MU-MAC is enhanced for the spatial clustering group(SCG)formation protocol and support for the unsaturated service characteristics.Further,the optimal access radius when the service is in a non-saturated state is analyzed to make the relevant theoretical analysis more generally,and the expressions for the throughput and area throughput of the proposed protocol are modeled and derived.The simulation results verify the correctness of the theoretical analysis and the efficiency of the protocol performance.The results show that MU-MAC outperforms IEEE 802.11ax and OMAX protocol in area throughput by 40.72%and 104.15%,respectively.

Evaluation index system of shared energy storage market towards renewable energy accommodation scenario:A China’s Qinghai province context

With the ever-increased installed capacity of renewable energy generation units in a power system,the so-called shared energy storage(SES),a novel business model under the umbrella of the shared economy principle,has the potential to play an essential role in the accommodation of renewable energy generation.However,unified evaluation standards and methods,which can help decision-makers analyze the performance of the SES market,are still not available.In this paper,an evaluation index system of the SES market is designed based on the trading rules of China’s Qinghai province and the structure-conduct-performance(SCP)analytical model.Moreover,the definition and characteristics of the indices,which can show the performance of the SES market from different perspectives,are given.Furthermore,the ideal cases are presented as the evaluation benchmark based on the development expectation of the SES market,and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)are applied to evaluate the SES market comprehensively.Finally,a case study based on actual data of the SES trading pilot project in Qinghai shows that the evaluation index system can reflect the operation status,existing problems and influencing factors of the SES market.

Spatio-temporal variations of the flood mitigation service of ecosystem under different climate scenarios in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin, China

Extreme rainstorm and the subsequent flood increasingly threaten the security of human society and ecological environment with aggravation of global climate change and anthropogenic activity in recent years. Therefore, the research on flood mitigation service(FMS) of ecosystem should be paid more attention to mitigate the risk. In this paper, we assessed FMS in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River(URHR), China from 2000 to 2014 using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN) model, and further simulated the future FMS under two climate scenarios(in 2020 and 2030). The results reveal that the FMS presented a fluctuating rising trend in the URHR from 2000 to 2014. The FMS in southern URHR was higher than that of northern URHR, and the change rate of FMS in the upstream of URHR(western URHR) was higher than the downstream of URHR(eastern URHR). The future FMS under scenarios of Medium-High Emissions(A2) and Medium-Low Emissions(B2) will decrease consistently. As land use/land cover changes in the URHR are negligible, we concluded that the change in FMS was mainly driven by climate change, such as storm and runoff. Our study highlights that climate scenarios analysis should be incorporated into the assessment of hydrologic-related services to facilitate regional water resources management.

面向国家战略的产业竞争情报场景化智慧服务模式研究

通过对面向国家战略的产业竞争情报智慧服务进行场景化、细粒度描述,构建产业竞争情报场景化智慧服务模式,以赋能复杂环境下产业高质量发展。首先,梳理国内外关于“场景化服务、产业竞争情报服务模式、智慧情报与情报智能服务”等相关研究,提出“产业竞争情报场景化智慧服务”的概念内涵;其次,沿着“战略引领与需求牵引—场景解构与细粒度刻画—平行系统与虚实交互—范式转变与服务升维”的研究逻辑,融合场景理论、平行智能思想,构建产业竞争情报场景化智慧服务模式;最后,以新能源汽车产业进行实证研究,为该行业竞争情报服务融慧进阶提出有效路径。本文提出了产业数字化升级、产业核心技术攻关、产业应急协同处突、新产业新业态培育四大情报服务场景,基于产业情报场景描述五元组,从服务内容、服务主体、服务客体、服务工具/手段、服务能力维度对其进行全景式描绘,构建了面向国家战略的产业竞争情报场景化智慧服务模式,并以新能源汽车产业为例,验证了本文模式的可行性与有效性。

Improving herdsmen’s well-being through scenario planning:A case study in Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Grassland ecosystems support well-being with food,shelter,income,and culture of herdsmen.While the associa-tion between ecosystem services and human well-being has been widely studied,such association is understudied in grassland ecosystems.This study aims to fill this gap through a case study of Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China.We examined the association between grassland provisioning services and herds-men’s well-being between 1985 and 2015 through participatory observations,interviews,surveys,and Bayesian belief network modeling.Considering the uncertainties of weather and sheep prices,we developed four scenarios to examine the future well-being of herdsmen.Our results show that the most important factor for herdsmen’s well-being was income,which is highly sensitive to the market price of sheep and precipitation.Considering the uncertainties of sheep prices and precipitation,scenario analysis revealed a divergence between income and well-being.While herdsmen’s income is most likely to increase with low precipitation and increased sheep prices,their well-being is most likely to improve with abundant precipitation and increased sheep prices.Based on our find-ings,we argue that developing alternative income sources(e.g.,tourism),reducing dependence on government subsidies through commercial insurance,and branding lamb with grassland ecosystem to alleviate the impact of price fluctuations would help improve herdsmen’s well-being in all scenarios.

场景理论视角下“图书馆+地铁”公共文化服务创新研究

图书馆与地铁跨界融合,共同打造公共文化空间,是拓展公共文化服务覆盖的有效途径,也是公共文化服务融合发展的新思路,而“场景”本质上是更高级形式的文化空间,本文在既有研究和我国实践探索经验基础上,提出“图书馆+地铁”这一公共文化融合服务场景概念,并引入场景理论,论证分析其应用于建设“图书馆+地铁”场景的契合性。在场景理论指导下,从合法性、真实性、戏剧性3个维度出发,打造深入人心的公共文化服务场景,探索“图书馆+地铁”的更多可能性,为公共文化服务发展注入活力。

辽宁太子河流域生态系统服务权衡/协同关系时空变化与情景预测

研究生态系统服务权衡与协同关系为制定合理的区域社会-生态系统管理方案提供依据,促进区域可持续发展。太子河是维护辽宁中部城市群生态安全和用水安全的重要保障,以重工业为主的产业布局使得该区生态安全受到威胁,严重影响社会经济的可持续发展。综合气象、土地利用等多源数据,借助InVEST模型,探究太子河流域固碳、土壤保持、生境质量的时空特征;采用Pearson相关分析法,探讨不同样点尺度、不同地类上权衡与协同关系的时空变化,并对2030年不同土地利用情景进行预测。结果表明:①三种生态系统服务在各尺度上(除100m尺度)均为协同关系,且样点尺度越大,相关系数越高。②在不同地类中,耕地、林地、草地三种地类生态系统服务功能类似,以土壤保持功能为主,碳储功能其次;生态系统服务的热点区分布在流域的东部,冷点区集中在流域西部。③不同预测情景下三种生态系统服务间仍为协同关系,在保护情景下生境质量最好、水域面积最多,生态系统服务能力最高;开发情景下建设用地面积增加最多,但生境质量最差。

“元宇宙+图书馆”红色资源阅读:理论研究、服务场景与展望

文章详述了元宇宙如何为图书馆红色资源阅读提供全新的服务场景,包括红色图书的数字化呈现、虚拟空间的沉浸式体验、实体空间的交互创新、红色旅游的虚拟导览、红色教育的在线互动以及红色展览的虚拟展示。这些场景不仅丰富了红色资源的传播方式,也提升了读者的阅读体验。同时,文章还从资源建设、技术应用和服务模式三个层面,为元宇宙视角下的图书馆红色资源阅读提出了切实可行的发展建议,以期为图书馆在元宇宙时代的发展指明方向。

全流程一站式智慧化入院服务场景的构建与应用

青岛大学附属医院以入院过程关键节点为线索,立足患者需求,自主研发患者服务平台,构建智慧化入院服务场景,延伸院前入院准备服务,拓展患者入院办理模式,真正为患者解决住院的衣食住行问题。全流程一站式智慧化入院服务场景的构建与应用,为优化和拓展入院服务流程、提升患者就医体验、提高医院管理效率提供了借鉴。

元宇宙视域下高校图书馆空间再造研究

元宇宙将重塑图书馆服务业态,提升数字化和智慧化服务水平,因此有必要探究元宇宙视域下高校图书馆空间再造未来发生的变革。文章通过文献研究法、思辨研究法开展专题研究,首先对元宇宙视域下高校图书馆空间再造的理论研究进行梳理和总结;其次从阅读、教育、社交、就业四个维度畅想高校图书馆虚拟空间服务场景;最后从发展理念、技术应用、馆员培养、服务规范、管理水平五个方面思考和规划未来发展路径。旨在推动元宇宙视域下高校图书馆空间再造,为数智化发展和服务提供新思路、新动能。

基于急救医疗服务体系框架的案例情景教学提升护生急危重症护理职业素质的教学设计与实践

目的探讨在急危重症护理课程教学中提高护生急危重症护理职业素质的教学方法。方法选取224名护理专业大专生为研究对象,实施基于急救医疗服务体系(EMSS)框架的案例情景教学,即“依托案例—情景设计、线上线下—以点带面”,对护生进行职业素质培养。结果护生对本次教学改革效果较满意。结论在急危重症护理课程教学中,实施基于EMSS框架的案例情景教学,有利于培养护生急危重症护理职业素质。

多情景模拟下收缩城市生态需求测度与规划策略研究--以鹤岗市为例

收缩城市经历着全面而深刻的社会经济转型,需求再匹配成为应对城市收缩生态问题的重要途径。而由于收缩城市未来发展存在较强的不确定性,导致直接应用既有的测度方法已无法准确描绘城市的生态需求。依据生态系统服务供需理论,针对收缩城市的转型特征,以鹤岗为例,以生态模型法为主要测度手段,构建“多维度—多情景”需求测度指标体系;根据测度结果,提出尊重收缩、活力维护和产业振兴等七项重点生态管控策略,以此应对收缩城市未来发展的不确定性,在一定程度上解决了收缩城市绿色基础设施规划的前置问题,为收缩城市的生态建设管理和空间高质量发展提供依据。