Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper...Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.展开更多
An integrated method for identifying the propagation of multi-loop process oscillations and their source location is proposed in this paper. Oscillatory process loop variables are automatically selected based on the c...An integrated method for identifying the propagation of multi-loop process oscillations and their source location is proposed in this paper. Oscillatory process loop variables are automatically selected based on the component-related ratio index and a mixing matrix, both of which are obtained in data preprocessing by spectral independent component analysis. The complex causality among oscillatory process variables is then revealed by Granger causality test and is visualized in the form of causality diagram. The simplification of causal connectivity in the diagram is performed according to the understanding of process knowledge and the final simplest causality diagram, which represents the main oscillation propagation paths, is achieved by the automated cutting-off thresh-old search, with which less significant causality pathways are filtered out. The source of the oscillation disturbance can be identified intuitively through the final causality diagram. Both simulated and real plant data tests are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.展开更多
Finding causality merely from observed data is a fundamental problem in science. The most basic form of this causal problem is to determine whether X leads to Y or Y leads to X in the case of joint observation of two ...Finding causality merely from observed data is a fundamental problem in science. The most basic form of this causal problem is to determine whether X leads to Y or Y leads to X in the case of joint observation of two variables X, Y. In statistics, path analysis is used to describe the direct dependence between a set of variables. But in fact, we usually do not know the causal order between variables. However, ignoring the direction of the causal path will prevent researchers from analyzing or using causal models. In this study, we propose a method for estimating causality based on observed data. First, observed variables are cleaned and valid variables are retained. Then, a direct linear non-Gaussian acyclic graph models(DirectLiNGAM) estimates the causal order K between variables. The third step is to estimate the adjacency matrix B of the causal relationship based on K. Next, since B is not convenient for model interpretation, we use adaptive lasso to prune the causal path and variables. Further, a causal path graph and a recursive model are established. Finally, we test and debug the recursive model, obtain a causal model with good fit, and estimate the direct, indirect and total effects between causal variables. This paper overcomes the randomness assigning causal order to variables. This study is different from the researcher’s understanding of his own model by generating some form of simulation data. The simplest and relatively unsmooth statistical learning method used in this study has obvious advantages in the field of interpretable machine learning.展开更多
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 59677009) the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No.99061116)
文摘Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （60974061）.
文摘An integrated method for identifying the propagation of multi-loop process oscillations and their source location is proposed in this paper. Oscillatory process loop variables are automatically selected based on the component-related ratio index and a mixing matrix, both of which are obtained in data preprocessing by spectral independent component analysis. The complex causality among oscillatory process variables is then revealed by Granger causality test and is visualized in the form of causality diagram. The simplification of causal connectivity in the diagram is performed according to the understanding of process knowledge and the final simplest causality diagram, which represents the main oscillation propagation paths, is achieved by the automated cutting-off thresh-old search, with which less significant causality pathways are filtered out. The source of the oscillation disturbance can be identified intuitively through the final causality diagram. Both simulated and real plant data tests are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61573266)
文摘Finding causality merely from observed data is a fundamental problem in science. The most basic form of this causal problem is to determine whether X leads to Y or Y leads to X in the case of joint observation of two variables X, Y. In statistics, path analysis is used to describe the direct dependence between a set of variables. But in fact, we usually do not know the causal order between variables. However, ignoring the direction of the causal path will prevent researchers from analyzing or using causal models. In this study, we propose a method for estimating causality based on observed data. First, observed variables are cleaned and valid variables are retained. Then, a direct linear non-Gaussian acyclic graph models(DirectLiNGAM) estimates the causal order K between variables. The third step is to estimate the adjacency matrix B of the causal relationship based on K. Next, since B is not convenient for model interpretation, we use adaptive lasso to prune the causal path and variables. Further, a causal path graph and a recursive model are established. Finally, we test and debug the recursive model, obtain a causal model with good fit, and estimate the direct, indirect and total effects between causal variables. This paper overcomes the randomness assigning causal order to variables. This study is different from the researcher’s understanding of his own model by generating some form of simulation data. The simplest and relatively unsmooth statistical learning method used in this study has obvious advantages in the field of interpretable machine learning.
