A Bayesian multi-model inference methodology for imprecise momentindependent global sensitivity analysis of rock structures

Traditional global sensitivity analysis(GSA)neglects the epistemic uncertainties associated with the probabilistic characteristics(i.e.type of distribution type and its parameters)of input rock properties emanating due to the small size of datasets while mapping the relative importance of properties to the model response.This paper proposes an augmented Bayesian multi-model inference(BMMI)coupled with GSA methodology(BMMI-GSA)to address this issue by estimating the imprecision in the momentindependent sensitivity indices of rock structures arising from the small size of input data.The methodology employs BMMI to quantify the epistemic uncertainties associated with model type and parameters of input properties.The estimated uncertainties are propagated in estimating imprecision in moment-independent Borgonovo’s indices by employing a reweighting approach on candidate probabilistic models.The proposed methodology is showcased for a rock slope prone to stress-controlled failure in the Himalayan region of India.The proposed methodology was superior to the conventional GSA(neglects all epistemic uncertainties)and Bayesian coupled GSA(B-GSA)(neglects model uncertainty)due to its capability to incorporate the uncertainties in both model type and parameters of properties.Imprecise Borgonovo’s indices estimated via proposed methodology provide the confidence intervals of the sensitivity indices instead of their fixed-point estimates,which makes the user more informed in the data collection efforts.Analyses performed with the varying sample sizes suggested that the uncertainties in sensitivity indices reduce significantly with the increasing sample sizes.The accurate importance ranking of properties was only possible via samples of large sizes.Further,the impact of the prior knowledge in terms of prior ranges and distributions was significant;hence,any related assumption should be made carefully.

An Adaptive DDoS Detection and Classification Method in Blockchain Using an Integrated Multi-Models

With the rising adoption of blockchain technology due to its decentralized,secure,and transparent features,ensuring its resilience against network threats,especially Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS)attacks,is crucial.This research addresses the vulnerability of blockchain systems to DDoS assaults,which undermine their core decentralized characteristics,posing threats to their security and reliability.We have devised a novel adaptive integration technique for the detection and identification of varied DDoS attacks.To ensure the robustness and validity of our approach,a dataset amalgamating multiple DDoS attacks was derived from the CIC-DDoS2019 dataset.Using this,our methodology was applied to detect DDoS threats and further classify them into seven unique attack subcategories.To cope with the broad spectrum of DDoS attack variations,a holistic framework has been pro-posed that seamlessly integrates five machine learning models:Gate Recurrent Unit(GRU),Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN),Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM),Deep Neural Networks(DNN),and Support Vector Machine(SVM).The innovative aspect of our framework is the introduction of a dynamic weight adjustment mechanism,enhancing the system’s adaptability.Experimental results substantiate the superiority of our ensemble method in comparison to singular models across various evaluation metrics.The framework displayed remarkable accuracy,with rates reaching 99.71%for detection and 87.62%for classification tasks.By developing a comprehensive and adaptive methodology,this study paves the way for strengthening the defense mechanisms of blockchain systems against DDoS attacks.The ensemble approach,combined with the dynamic weight adjustment,offers promise in ensuring blockchain’s enduring security and trustworthiness.

Data Augmentation and Random Multi-Model Deep Learning for Data Classification

In the machine learning(ML)paradigm,data augmentation serves as a regularization approach for creating ML models.The increase in the diversification of training samples increases the generalization capabilities,which enhances the prediction performance of classifiers when tested on unseen examples.Deep learning(DL)models have a lot of parameters,and they frequently overfit.Effectively,to avoid overfitting,data plays a major role to augment the latest improvements in DL.Nevertheless,reliable data collection is a major limiting factor.Frequently,this problem is undertaken by combining augmentation of data,transfer learning,dropout,and methods of normalization in batches.In this paper,we introduce the application of data augmentation in the field of image classification using Random Multi-model Deep Learning(RMDL)which uses the association approaches of multi-DL to yield random models for classification.We present a methodology for using Generative Adversarial Networks(GANs)to generate images for data augmenting.Through experiments,we discover that samples generated by GANs when fed into RMDL improve both accuracy and model efficiency.Experimenting across both MNIST and CIAFAR-10 datasets show that,error rate with proposed approach has been decreased with different random models.

Support vector machine-based multi-model predictive control

In this paper, a support vector machine-based multi-model predictive control is proposed, in which SVM classification combines well with SVM regression. At first, each working environment is modeled by SVM regression and the support vector machine network-based model predictive control （SVMN-MPC） algorithm corresponding to each environment is developed, and then a multi-class SVM model is established to recognize multiple operating conditions. As for control, the current environment is identified by the multi-class SVM model and then the corresponding SVMN-MPC controller is activated at each sampling instant. The proposed modeling, switching and controller design is demonstrated in simulation results.

Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961-1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models （such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47） during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of mul- ti-model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991-1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011-2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B 1. Analyzed results show that： （1） Global climate models can repro- duce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. （2） With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. （3） Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991-1999, we can simulate the trend of temper- ature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. （4） For the period of 20ll-2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1℃. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B 1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8℃; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1℃.

Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field

The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, where the anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） has been improved by 0.14, corresponding to the reduced RMSE of 10.4% in the conventional multi-model ensemble （MME） forecast.

Ensemble Simulation of Land Evapotranspiration in China Based on a Multi-Forcing and Multi-Model Approach

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）, Qian] and four LSMs （BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5）, to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over China's Mainland during 1982-2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean （EnsAVlean） could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates （Obs_MTE）. For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs_MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens_Mean was closer to Obs_MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs_MTE and Ens_Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982-98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Nifio event occurred, the Ens_Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs_MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.

Multi-model predictive control with local constraints based on model switching

Because model switching system is a typical form of Takagi-Sugeno（T-S） model which is an universal approximator of continuous nonlinear systems, we describe the model switching system as mixed logical dynamical （MLD） system and use it in model predictive control （MPC） in this paper. Considering that each local model is only valid in each local region,we add local constraints to local models. The stability of proposed multi-model predictive control （MMPC） algorithm is analyzed, and the performance of MMPC is also demonstrated on an inulti-multi-output（MIMO） simulated pH neutralization process.

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Marine Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations Time-Series Forecasting Based on Multi-Factor Analysis and a Multi-Model Ensemble

Dissolved oxygen(DO)is an important indicator of aquaculture,and its accurate forecasting can effectively improve the quality of aquatic products.In this paper,a new DO hybrid forecasting model is proposed that includes three stages:multi-factor analysis,adaptive decomposition,and an optimizationbased ensemble.First,considering the complex factors affecting DO,the grey relational(GR)degree method is used to screen out the environmental factors most closely related to DO.The consideration of multiple factors makes model fusion more effective.Second,the series of DO,water temperature,salinity,and oxygen saturation are decomposed adaptively into sub-series by means of the empirical wavelet transform(EWT)method.Then,five benchmark models are utilized to forecast the sub-series of EWT decomposition.The ensemble weights of these five sub-forecasting models are calculated by particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm(PSOGSA).Finally,a multi-factor ensemble model for DO is obtained by weighted allocation.The performance of the proposed model is verified by timeseries data collected by the pacific islands ocean observing system(PacIOOS)from the WQB04 station at Hilo.The evaluation indicators involved in the experiment include the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE),Kling–Gupta efficiency(KGE),mean absolute percent error(MAPE),standard deviation of error(SDE),and coefficient of determination(R^(2)).Example analysis demonstrates that:①The proposed model can obtain excellent DO forecasting results;②the proposed model is superior to other comparison models;and③the forecasting model can be used to analyze the trend of DO and enable managers to make better management decisions.

Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall

Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.

Splitting and Merging Based Multi-model Fitting for Point Cloud Segmentation

This paper deals with the massive point cloud segmentation processing technology on the basis of machine vision, which is the second essential factor for the intelligent data processing of three dimensional conformation in digital photogrammetry. In this paper, multi-model fitting method is used to segment the point cloud according to the spatial distribution and spatial geometric structure of point clouds by fitting the point cloud into different geometric primitives models. Because point cloud usually possesses large amount of 3D points, which are uneven distributed over various complex structures, this paper proposes a point cloud segmentation method based on multi-model fitting. Firstly, the pre-segmentation of point cloud is conducted by using the clustering method based on density distribution. And then the follow fitting and segmentation are carried out by using the multi-model fitting method based on split and merging. For the plane and the arc surface, this paper uses different fitting methods, and finally realizing the indoor dense point cloud segmentation. The experimental results show that this method can achieve the automatic segmentation of the point cloud without setting the number of models in advance. Compared with the existing point cloud segmentation methods, this method has obvious advantages in segmentation effect and time cost, and can achieve higher segmentation accuracy. After processed by method proposed in this paper, the point cloud even with large-scale and complex structures can often be segmented into 3D geometric elements with finer and accurate model parameters, which can give rise to an accurate 3D conformation.

A Bayesian Scheme for Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley

A Bayesian probabilistic prediction scheme of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) summer rainfall is proposed to combine forecast information from multi-model ensemble dataset provided by ENSEMBLES project.Due to the low forecast skill of rainfall in dynamic models,the time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall are selected as ensemble members in the new scheme,instead of commonly-used YRV summer rainfall simulated by models.Each time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall is derived from a simple linear regression.The predictor in each simple linear regression is the skillfully simulated circulation or surface temperature factor which is highly linear with the observed YRV summer rainfall in the training set.The high correlation between the ensemble mean of these regressed YRV summer rainfall and observation benefit extracting more sample information from the ensemble system.The results show that the cross-validated skill of the new scheme over the period of 1960 to 2002 is much higher than equally-weighted ensemble,multiple linear regression,and Bayesian ensemble with simulated YRV summer rainfall as ensemble members.In addition,the new scheme is also more skillful than reference forecasts (random forecast at a 0.01 significance level for ensemble mean and climatology forecast for probability density function).

A Multi-Model Approach to Design a Robust SVC Damping Controller Using Convex Optimization Technique to Enhance the Damping of Inter-Area Oscillations Considering Time Delay

This paper introduces a multi-model approach to design a robust supplementary damping controller. The designed fixed-order supplementary damping controller adjusts the voltage reference set point of SVC. There are two main objectives of the controller design, damping low frequencies oscillations and enhancing power system stability. This method relies on shaping the closed-loop sensitivity functions in the Nyquist plot under the constraints of these functions. These constraints can be linearized by choosing a desired open-loop transfer function. The robust controller is designed to minimize the error between the open-loop of the original plant model and the desired transfer functions. These outcomes can be achieved by using convex optimization methods. Convexity of the problem formulation ensures global optimality. One of the advantages of the proposed approach is that the approach accounts for multi-model uncertainty. In contrast to the methods available in the literature, the proposed approach deals with full-order model (i.e., model reduction is not required) with lower controller order. The issue of time delay of feedback signals has been addressed in this paper for different values of time delay by applying a multi-model optimization technique. The proposed approach is compared to other existing techniques to design a robust controller which is based on H2 under pole placement. Both techniques are applied to the 68-bus system to evaluate and validate the robust controller performance under different load scenarios and different wind generations.

Fuzzy modeling of multirate sampled nonlinear systems based on multi-model method

Based on the multi-model principle, the fuzzy identification for nonlinear systems with multirate sampled data is studied.Firstly, the nonlinear system with multirate sampled data can be shown as the nonlinear weighted combination of some linear models at multiple local working points. On this basis, the fuzzy model of the multirate sampled nonlinear system is built. The premise structure of the fuzzy model is confirmed by using fuzzy competitive learning, and the conclusion parameters of the fuzzy model are estimated by the random gradient descent algorithm. The convergence of the proposed identification algorithm is given by using the martingale theorem and lemmas. The fuzzy model of the PH neutralization process of acid-base titration for hair quality detection is constructed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A DFIM Sensor Faults Multi-Model Diagnosis Approach Based on an Adaptive PI Multiobserver—Experimental Validation

This paper studies the problem of diagnosis strategy for a doubly fed induction motor (DFIM) sensor faults. This strategy is based on unknown input proportional integral (PI) multiobserver. Thecontribution of this paper is on one hand the creation of a new DFIM model based on multi-model approach and, on the other hand, the synthesis of an adaptive PI multi-observer. The DFIM Volt per Hertz drive system behaves as a nonlinear complex system. It consists of a DFIM powered through a controlled PWM Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). The need of a sensorless drive requires soft sensors such as estimators or observers. In particular, an adaptive Proportional-Integral multi-observer is synthesized in order to estimate the DFIM’s outputs which are affected by different faults and to generate the different residual signals symptoms of sensor fault occurrence. The convergence of the estimation error is guaranteed by using the Lyapunov’s based theory. The proposed diagnosis approach is experimentally validated on a 1 kW Induction motor. Obtained simulation results confirm that the adaptive PI multiobserver consent to accomplish the detection, isolation and fault identification tasks with high dynamic performances.

Induction Motor Modeling Based on a Fuzzy Clustering Multi-Model—A Real-Time Validation

This paper discusses a comparative study of two modeling methods based on multimodel approach. The first is based on C-means clustering algorithm and the second is based on K-means clustering algorithm. The two methods are experimentally applied to an induction motor. The multimodel modeling consists in representing the IM through a finite number of local models. This number of models has to be initially fixed, for which a subtractive clustering is necessary. Then both C-means and K-means clustering are exploited to determine the clusters. These clusters will be then exploited on the basis of structural and parametric identification to determine the local models that are combined, finally, to form the multimodel. The experimental study is based on MATLAB/SIMULINK environment and a DSpace scheme with DS1104 controller board. Experimental results approve that the multimodel based on K-means clustering algorithm is the most efficient.

An Innovative Method to Improve Model Accuracy by Implementing Multi-models Scheme for 28nm Node and Below

As the process comes into 28nm node and below,lithography struggles stronger between high resolution (high NA) and enough process window especially for hole layers (Contacts and Vias).Taking more care of process window may result in lower image quality of structures and bigger uncertainty in OPC model accuracy.Besides,it is difficult to cover all kinds of test structures within acceptable accuracy in one OPC model because of distinct difference of image quality of different patterns.To solve these problems,this paper introduces an innovative method of applying multi-models in one layer OPC.According to different characteristic features,multiple models are applied respectively and the fitting on these features with poor resolution can be improved by re-optimizing based on related model.A practice for 28 nm Via layer modeling calibration is given,and it shows an evident improvement of model accuracy through the implementing of multiple models scheme.

STUDY OF THE MODIFICATION OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SCHEMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM) and superensemble(SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean(EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.

An algorithm of multi-model spatial overlay based on three-dimensional terrain model TIN and its application

D GIS spatial overlay analysis is being broadly concerned about in international academe and is a research focus. It is one of the important functions of spatial analysis using GIS technology. An algorithm of multi model spatial overlay based on three dimensional terrain model TIN is introduced in this paper which can be used to solve the TIN based three dimensional overlay operation in spatial analysis. The feasibility and validity of this algorithm is identified. This algorithm is used successfully in three dimensional overlay and region variation overlay analysis.