A Well Productivity Model for Multi-Layered Marine and Continental Transitional Reservoirs with Complex Fracture Networks

Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory of tortuous capillary bundles and can take into account multiple gas flow mechanisms at the micrometer and nanometer scales,as well as the flow characteristics in different types of thin layers(tight sandstone gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas).Moreover,a source-sink function concept and a pressure drop superposition principle are utilized to introduce a coupled flow model in the reservoir.A semi-analytical solution for the production rate is obtained using a matrix iteration method.A specific well is selected for fitting dynamic production data,and the calculation results show that the tight sandstone has the highest gas production per unit thickness compared with the other types of reservoirs.Moreover,desorption and diffusion of coalbed gas and shale gas can significantly contribute to gas production,and the daily production of these two gases decreases rapidly with decreasing reservoir pressure.Interestingly,the gas production from fractures exhibits an approximately U-shaped distribution,indicating the need to optimize the spacing between clusters during hydraulic fracturing to reduce the area of overlapping fracture control.The coal matrix water saturation significantly affects the coalbed gas production,with higher water saturation leading to lower production.

Three-Dimensional Modelling of a Multi-Layer Sandstone Reservoir： the Sebei Gas Field, China

Multi-layer sandstone reservoirs occur globally and are currently in international production. The 3D characteristics of these reservoirs are too complicated to be accurately delineated by general structural-facies-reservoir modelling. In view of the special geological features, such as the vertical architecture of sandstone and mudstone interbeds, the lateral stable sedimentation and the strong heterogeneity of reservoir poroperm and fluid distribution, we developed a new three-stage and six-phase procedure for 3D characterization of multi-layer sandstone reservoirs. The procedure comprises two-phase structural modelling, two-phase facies modelling and modelling of two types of reservoir properties. Using this procedure, we established models of the formation structure, sand body structure and microfacies, reservoir facies and properties including porosity, permeability and gas saturation and provided a 3D fine-scale, systematic characterization of the Sebei multi-layer sandstone gas field, China. This new procedure, validated by the Sebei gas field, can be applied to characterize similar multi-layer sandstone reservoirs.

Multi-layer Tectonic Model for Intraplate Deformation and Plastic-Flow Network in the Asian Continental Lithosphere

In a large area of the east—central Asian continent there is a unified seismic network system composed of two families of large—seismic belts that intersect conjugately. Such a seismic network in the middle—upper crust is actually a response to the plastic flow network in the lower lithosphere including the lower crust and lithospheric mantle. The existence of the unified plastic flow system confirms that the driving force for intraplate tectonic deformation results mainly from the compression of the India plate, while the long-range transmission of the force is carried out chiefly by means of plastic flow. The plastic flow network has a control over the intraplate tectonic deformation.

A flexible ultra-broadband multi-layered absorber working at 2 GHz-40 GHz printed by resistive ink

A flexible extra broadband metamaterial absorber(MMA)stacked with five layers working at 2 GHz–40 GHz is investigated.Each layer is composed of polyvinyl chloride(PVC),polyimide(PI),and a frequency selective surface(FSS),which is printed on PI using conductive ink.To investigate this absorber,both one-dimensional analogous circuit analysis and three-dimensional full-wave simulation based on a physical model are provided.Various crucial electromagnetic properties,such as absorption,effective impedance,complex permittivity and permeability,electric current distribution and magnetic field distribution at resonant peak points,are studied in detail.Analysis shows that the working frequency of this absorber covers entire S,C,X,Ku,K and Ka bands with a minimum thickness of 0.098λ_(max)(λ_(max) is the maximum wavelength in the absorption band),and the fractional bandwidth(FBW)reaches 181.1%.Moreover,the reflection coefficient is less than-10 dB at 1.998 GHz–40.056 GHz at normal incidence,and the absorptivity of the plane wave is greater than 80%when the incident angle is smaller than 50°.Furthermore,the proposed absorber is experimentally validated,and the experimental results show good agreement with the simulation results,which demonstrates the potential applicability of this absorber at 2 GHz–40 GHz.

The role of polyurethane foam compressible layer in the mechanical behaviour of multi-layer yielding supports for deep soft rock tunnels

The polyurethane foam(PU)compressible layer is a viable solution to the problem of damage to the secondary lining in squeezing tunnels.Nevertheless,the mechanical behaviour of the multi-layer yielding supports has not been thoroughly investigated.To fill this gap,large-scale model tests were conducted in this study.The synergistic load-bearing mechanics were analyzed using the convergenceconfinement method.Two types of multi-layer yielding supports with different thicknesses(2.5 cm,3.75 cm and 5 cm)of PU compressible layers were investigated respectively.Digital image correlation(DIC)analysis and acoustic emission(AE)techniques were used for detecting the deformation fields and damage evolution of the multi-layer yielding supports in real-time.Results indicated that the loaddisplacement relationship of the multi-layer yielding supports could be divided into the crack initiation,crack propagation,strain-hardening,and failure stages.Compared with those of the stiff support,the toughness,deformability and ultimate load of the yielding supports were increased by an average of 225%,61%and 32%,respectively.Additionally,the PU compressible layer is positioned between two primary linings to allow the yielding support to have greater mechanical properties.The analysis of the synergistic bearing effect suggested that the thickness of PU compressible layer and its location significantly affect the mechanical properties of the yielding supports.The use of yielding supports with a compressible layer positioned between the primary and secondary linings is recommended to mitigate the effects of high geo-stress in squeezing tunnels.

Modeling Locking Angle of the Multi-layered Biaxial Weft Knitted Fabric in Shear Deformation

This paper introduces the construction of the multi-layered biaxial weft knitted fabric （MBWK fabric） and studies the locking angle of this kind of fabric. Moreover, a locking angle model of the MBWK fabric is established for the first time according to its unique construction. Two kinds of locking angles are considered under different restraint conditions: the locking angle θ1 controlled by the inserting yarns and the locking angle θ2 controlled by the stitch yarns. It is concluded that the ultimate value of the locking angle θ is the larger one of the two angles.

NEW MODEL OF GAS FLOW PROBLEM IN MULTI-LAYERED GAS RESERVOIR AND APPLICATION

In this paper, the new model of the real gas filtration problem has been presented multi-layered gas reservoir, when a gas well output and wellbore storage may be variable, and have obtained the exact solutions of pressure distribution for each reservoir bed under three kinds of typical out-boundary conditions. As a special case, according to the new model have also obtained the qxact solutions of presssure distribution in homogeneous reservoir and is given important application in gas reservoir development.

Multi-layer Evacuation Model: A solution of Emergency Evacuation

The large-scale population accumulation in modem cities has become one of their important characteristics. With the development of urbanization in the world, the large-scale gathering activities are increasing, and the accidents caused by them are also rising. At the same time, the evacuation of visitors is faced with severe challenges in the event of an emergency such as terrorist attacks. The main problem for tourists is how to evacuate quickly and safely in an emergency. The Louvre is one of the largest and most visited art museums in the world.Visitors are large and come from all over the world, the volume of passengers varies greatly, and the interior architecture design is complicated, etc. These characteristics challenge the design of evacuation paths. Based on the consideration of these factors, we should develop the optimal evacuation scheme and minimize the accident risk and evacuation cost.

PROGRESS OF GREY SYSTEM MODELS

The progress of grey system models is reviewed, and the general grey numbers, the grey sequence op- erators and several most commonly used grey system models are introduced, such as the absolute degree of grey incidence model, the grey cluster model based on endpoint triangular whitenization functions, the grey cluster model based on center-point triangular whitenization functions, the grey prediction model of the model GM （ 1,1）, and the weighted multi-attribute grey target decision model.

Study on the Yield Prediction Model of Processing Tomato Based on the Grey System Theory

[Objective] The research aimed to study the yield prediction model of processing tomato based on the grey system theory.[Method] The variation trend of processing tomato yield was studied by using the grey system theory,and GM（1,1）grey model of processing tomato yield prediction was established.The processing tomato yield in Xinjiang during 2001-2009 was as the example to carry out the instance analysis.[Result] The model had the high forecast accuracy and strong generalization ability,and was reliable for the prediction of recent processing tomato yield.[Conclusion] The research provided the reference for the macro-control of tomato industry,the processing and storage of tomato in Xinjiang.

HIERARCHIC GREY QUASI-PREFERRED ANALYSIS MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

The grey quasi-preferred analysis (GQPA) is one of important methods for realizing system analysis to conquer the limitations of the existing GQPA model, without any considerations to the difference of the different behavioral factor′s importance. It could not be used to analyze the complex system with multi-hierarchy correlation factors, the weighted synthetic method for calculating abstract incidence degrees between the system beha-vioral characteristics and correlative factors in different hierarchies is given out,and the hierarchic grey quasi-preferred analysis (HGQPA) model is established. The effectiveness of the HGQPA model is tested by the scientific-technical system of Jiangsu Province. The depth and the range of the application of GQPA are developed, and the HGQPA model is regarded as a new approach to systemically analyze the complex systems with multi-hierarchy correlation factors.

TIME SERIES AND GREY MODEL DIAGNOSIS METHOD USED TO CRACK PROBLEMS

In this paper,the vibration signals in the fatigue crack growth process in a chinese steel used in a mining machinery were analyzed by the frequency spectrum, the time series and grey system model,and the critical criterion for crack initiation was proposed.

Prediction model of interval grey number based on DGM(1,1)

In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example＇s program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.

Interval grey number sequence prediction by using non-homogenous exponential discrete grey forecasting model

This paper aims to study a new grey prediction approach and its solution for forecasting the main system variable whose accurate value could not be collected while the potential value set could be defined. Based on the traditional nonhomogenous discrete grey forecasting model（NDGM）, the interval grey number and its algebra operations are redefined and combined with the NDGM model to construct a new interval grey number sequence prediction approach. The solving principle of the model is analyzed, the new accuracy evaluation indices, i.e. mean absolute percentage error of mean value sequence（MAPEM） and mean percent of interval sequence simulating value set covered（MPSVSC）, are defined and, the procedure of the interval grey number sequence based the NDGM（IG-NDGM） is given out. Finally, a numerical case is used to test the modelling accuracy of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed approach could solve the interval grey number sequence prediction problem and it is much better than the traditional DGM（1,1） model and GM（1,1） model.

Fault Prediction Based on Dynamic Model and Grey Time Series Model in Chemical Processes

This paper combines grey model with time series model and then dynamic model for rapid and in-depth fault prediction in chemical processes. Two combination methods are proposed. In one method, historical data is introduced into the grey time series model to predict future trend of measurement values in chemical process. These predicted measurements are then used in the dynamic model to retrieve the change of fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. In another method, historical data is introduced directly into the dynamic model to retrieve historical fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. These parameters are then predicted by the grey time series model. The two methods are applied to a gravity tank example. The case study demonstrates that the first method is more accurate for fault prediction.

Improved grey prediction model based on exponential grey action quantity

With the passage of time, it has become important to investigate new methods for updating data to better fit the trends of the grey prediction model. The traditional GM（1,1） usually sets the grey action quantity as a constant. Therefore, it cannot effectively fit the dynamic characteristics of the sequence, which results in the grey model having a low precision. The linear grey action quantity model cannot represent the index change law. This paper presents a grey action quantity model, the exponential optimization grey model（EOGM（1,1））, based on the exponential type of grey action quantity; it is constructed based on the exponential characteristics of the grey prediction model. The model can fully reflect the exponential characteristics of the simulation series with time. The exponential sequence has a higher fitting accuracy. The optimized result is verified using a numerical example for the fluctuating sequence and a case study for the index of the tertiary industry＇s GDP. The results show that the model improves the precision of the grey forecasting model and reduces the prediction error.

Combined model based on optimized multi-variable grey model and multiple linear regression

The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.

A New Modified GM (1,1) Model: Grey Optimization Model

Based on the optimization method, a new modified GM (1,1) model is presented, which is characterized by more accuracy prediction for the grey modeling.

Expansion modelling of discrete grey model based on multi-factor information aggregation

This paper aims to study a novel expansion discrete grey forecasting model, which could aggregate input information more effectively. In general, existing multi-factor grey forecasting models, such as one order and h variables grey forecasting model （GM （1, h））, always aggregate the main system variable and independent variables in a linear form rather than a nonlinear form, while a nonlinear form could be used in more cases than the linear form. And the nonlinear form could aggregate collinear independent factors, which widely lie in many multi-factor forecasting problems. To overcome this problem, a new approach, named as the Solow residual method, is proposed to aggregate independent factors. And a new expansion model, feedback multi-factor discrete grey forecasting model based on the Solow residual method （abbreviated as FDGM （1, h））, is proposed accordingly. Then the feedback control equation and the parameters＇ solution of the FDGM （1, h） model are given. Finally, a real application is used to test the modelling accuracy of the FDGM （1, h） model. Results show that the FDGM （1, h） model is much better than the nonhomogeneous discrete grey forecasting model （NDGM） and the GM （1, h） model.

Grey Markov chain and its application in drift prediction model of FOGs

A novel grey Markov chain predictive model is discussed to reduce drift influence on the output of fiber optical gyroscopes (FOGs) and to improve FOGs' measurement precision. The proposed method possesses advantages of grey model and Markov chain. It makes good use of dynamic modeling idea of the grey model to predict general trend of original data. Then according to the trend, states are divided so that it can overcome the disadvantage of high computational cost of state transition probability matrix in Markov chain. Moreover, the presented approach expands the applied scope of the grey model and makes it be fit for prediction of random data with bigger fluctuation. The numerical results of real drift data from a certain type FOG verify the effectiveness of the proposed grey Markov chain model powerfully. The Markov chain is also investigated to provide a comparison with the grey Markov chain model. It is shown that the hybrid grey Markov chain prediction model has higher modeling precision than Markov chain itself, which prove this proposed method is very applicable and effective.