Correlation Analysis between the Evapotranspiration Quantity and Climatic Factors of Artificial Grassland in Three River Sources Areas

Based on observation data from the mini-type automatic weather station,the evapotranspiration quantity of reference crops from artificial grassland in three river sources areas was estimated by the method of FAO Penman-Monteith.The actual evapotranspiration quantity of grassland was calculated according to the synthetic crop coefficients referenced by FAQ-56,and the change of the actual evapotranspiration quantity of artificial grassland in three river sources areas as well as the relationship between the evapotranspiration quantity and climatic factors were studied.The results suggested that the seasonal change of actual evapotranspiration quantity in grassland was expressed in a single peak curve with the peak in the middle August,and daily transpiration quantity in summer was significantly larger than that in winter.The evapotranspiration was significantly correlated with air temperature,solar radiation and relative humidity,but not significantly correlated with wind speed.Effects of climatic factors on the evapotranspiration quantity of artificial grassland were ordered as follow:air temperature(T)>solar radiation(Ra)>relative humidity(RH)>wind speed(u2).

Analysis of Climatic Factors Causing Yield Difference in Ramie among Different Eco-regions of Yangtze Valley

[Objective] This study was to investigate the climatic factors affecting the regional eco-adaptability of ramie.[Method] Five experimental sites of different eco-types in ramie growing regions in Yangtze Valley were set up to investigate the yield of Zhongzhu No.2,based on which we assessed the adaptability of Zhongzhu No.2 to various eco-regions and further analyzed the climatic factors causing the difference in eco-adaptability.[Result] Ramie yield varied largely among various experimental sites and the yield difference appeared to be well repeatable,with a differential value between the maximum and the minimum reaching 2.3 kg/20 m2.Analysis of the yield data,together with climatic factors in various ecological regions showed that yield of Zhongzhu No.2 was significantly correlated with rainfall,sunshine hours,relative humidity during its growing period.Of the climatic factors,sunshine hours and rainfall can positively promote yield increase,while relative humidity negatively regulate ramie yield.[Conclusion] The climatic indices,including rainfall,sunshine duration and relative humidity are a key factor causing yield difference in ramie among different regions of Yangtze Valley.

Relationship between multi-scale climate factors and performance of ecological engineering on the Loess Plateau, China

The long-term “Grain-to-Green Program” (GGP) on China’s Loess Plateau is a major global ecological engineering project which has significantly boosted vegetation renewal. Some studies have found that the rate of restoration is quite rapid during the implementation of ecological engineering, however, the influence of multi-scale climatic conditions on the performance of ecological engineering is unclear. In this study, multiple sources of remote sensing data were used to estimate the dynamics of vegetation structural and functional indicators, water-related local climatic factors, and atmospheric circulation factors. These datasets were also used to detect possible causes for vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau over the past 20 years. The results show that widespread increases in rates of normalized difference vegetation indexes (NDVI), leaf area indexes (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), and aboveground biomass carbon (ABC) during 2000–2016 were significantly higher than before 2000. GPP was significantly correlated with rainfall and surface runoff on a monthly scale, and there were significant positive correlations between GPP and atmospheric circulation. Our results demonstrate that both vegetation structural and functional indicators rapidly increase, and ecological engineering greatly accelerated vegetation restoration after 2000. Local climatic conditions and atmospheric circulation patterns enhance vegetation growth and impact of ecological engineering.

Interactions between Vegetation and Climatic Factors in Typical Arid and Humid Regions of China Based on NDVI

According to the distribution of arid and humid regions in China,the typical arid region (Erjina),the typical semi-arid/semi-humid region (Guanzhong basin/Loess Plateau) and the typical humid region (Poyang Lake basin) were selected as the study areas.Based on NDVI data from 1982 to 2000 and meteorological observing data of three study areas from 1981 to 2000,the interactions between vegetation NDVI and climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) in typical arid and humid regions were discussed in this study.The results showed that in the responses of vegetation to climatic factors,vegetation in the typical arid region (Erjina) was more sensitive to precipitation,while vegetation in the typical semi-arid/semi-humid region (Guanzhong basin/Loess Plateau) was more sensitive to both temperature and precipitation,and vegetation in the typical humid region (Poyang Lake basin) was more sensitive to temperature.As for effects of vegetation on climatic factors,there was a remarkable negative correlation between vegetation NDVI in the past winter and temperature in the present summer,and also a significant positive correlation between vegetation NDVI in the past winter and precipitation in the present summer.However,in the typical semi-arid/semi-humid region (Guanzhong basin/Loess Plateau),there was a significant positive correlation between vegetation NDVI in the present spring and temperature in the present summer.

Correlation of eco-hydrographic benefit and height increment of Robinia pseudoacacia stand with climatic environmental factors in Yellow River Delta Wetland of China

The relationship between eco-hydrographic benefit of forest vegetation and climatic environmental factors is one of the focuses in the research on environmental protection and ecosystem countermeasures in Wetland. The runoff, sediment and soil moisture rate dynamics in Robinia pseudoacacia plantation and its clearcut area were investigated in the natural runoff experiment plots in Yellow River Delta Wet- land, Shandong Province, China. The correlation of height increment ofR. pseudoacacia with nine climate factors such as light, water, heat, etc. was analyzed by stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that the amounts of runoff and sediment in clearcut area of R. pseudoacacia were 53.9%-150.8% and 172.8%-387.1% higher than that in Robinia pseudoacacia plantation, respectively. The runoff peak value in R. pseudoacacia stand was obviously lower than that in clerarcut area, meantime, the occurrence of runoffpeak in R. pseudoacacia stand was 25 min later than in its clerarcut area. The soil moisture rates in R. pseudoacacia stand and its clearcut varied periodically with annual rainfall precipitation in both dry season and humid season. The annual mean soil moisture rate in R. pseudoacacia stand was 23.3%-25.6% higher than that in its clearcut area. Meanwhile, a regression model reflecting the correlation between the height increment of R. pseudoacacia and climatic factors was developed by stepwise regression procedure method. It showed that the light was the most important factor for the height increment ofR. pseudoacacia, followed by water and heat factors.

Changes in Climatic Factors and Extreme Climate Events in Northeast China during 1961-2010

This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.

Correlation between Climatic Factors and Genetic Diversity of Phrynocephalus forsythii

Global climate change is a threat to animals in nearly all biomes and ecosystems, especially for ectotherm whose life activities highly depend on environmental thermal regime. Population genetic diversity which is essential for adaptation to environmental change is a useful index for long-term species survival. In this paper, genetic diversity of eight Phrynocephalus forsythii population which distributed in Tarim Basin, China, were evaluated based on three mtDNA gene and its correlation with environment factors were investigated using RDA. Our result revealed that, the level of genetic diversity of P. forsythii populations was related to its location but there was no significant correlation between genetic distances and geographic distances in P. forsythii. However, we find that mtDNA of P. forsythii was subjected to selection pressure during evolution and population genetic diversity was significantly positively related to variation coefficient of rainfall(VCR) and altitude(AL), while significantly negatively related to longitude(N) and annual average temperature(AAT). Our result supported the previous prediction that excessive ambient heat is a threat to P. forsythii.

Vegetation Dynamics and Its Relationship with Climatic Factors in the Changbai Mountain Natural Reserve

This study examined the temporal variation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and its relationship with climatic factors in the Changbai Mountain Natural Reserve （CMNR） during 2000 - 2009. The results showed as follows. The average NDVI values increased at a rate of 0.0024 year-1. The increase rate differed with vegetation types, such as 0.0034 year-1 for forest and 0.0017 year-1 for tundra. Trend analyses revealed a consistent NDVI increase at the start and end of the growing season but little variation or decrease observed in July during the study period. The NDVI in CMNR showed a stronger correlation with temperature than with precipitation, especially in spring and autumn. A stronger correlation was observed between NDVI and temperature in the tundra zone （2,000-2,600m） than in the coniferous forest （1,100-1,700m） and Korean pine-broadleaved mixed forest （7oo-1,1oom） zones. The results indicate that vegetation at higher elevations is more sensitive to temperature change. NDVI variation had a strong correlation with temperature change （r=0.7311, p〈0.01） but less significant correlation with precipitation change. The result indicates that temperature can serve as a main indicator of vegetation sensitivity in the CMNR.

STUDY ON CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF CHINA-INFLUENCING TYPHOONS AND THE INTERRELATIONS BETWEEN THEM AND THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

Climatic characteristics of China-influencing typhoons (CIT) were analyzed in this paper. Main characteristics include:(1) CIT season is May-November, especially from July to September. (2) Frequency of the CIT shows a decreasing trend during 1951-2004, especially after the late period of the 1960s. (3) Strong CIT also shows an obvious decreasing trend. Meanwhile, there exist obvious interdecadal variations in the CIT genesis, being more southward and eastward than normal in 1960s-1970s, and more northward and westward than normal in the 1980s. In addition, the interrelations between CIT and its environmental factors show that CIT has close relationships with sea surface temperature and East Asian summer monsoon;the structure of the circulations in frequent CIT years is much different from that in infrequent CIT years.

Limiting climatic factors in shaping the distribution pattern and niche differentiation of Prunus dielsiana in subtropical China

Subtropical forest in China has received much attention due to its complex geologic environment and bioclimatic heterogeneity.There have been very few studies addressing which climatic factors have shaped both distribution patterns and niche differentiation of species from this region.It also remains unclear whether phylogenetic niche conservatism retains in plant species from this biodiversityrich subtropical region in China.In this study,we used geographic occurrence records and bioclimatic factors of Prunus dielsiana(Rosaceae),a wild cherry species,combined with the classical ENM-based DIVA-GIS software to access contemporary distribution and richness patterns of its natural populations.The current distribution of P.dielsiana occupied a relatively wide range but exhibited an uneven pattern eastward in general,and the core distribution zone of its populations are projected to concentrate in the Wushan and Wuling Mountain ranges of western China.Hydrothermic variables,particularly the Temperature Seasonality(bio4)are screened out quantitatively to be the most influential factors that have shaped the current geographical patterns of P.dielsiana.By comparison with other sympatric families,climatic niche at regional scale showed a pattern of phylogenetic niche conservatism within cherry species of Ros aceae.The effect of habitat filtering from altitude is more significant than those of longitude and latitude.We conclude that habitat filtering dominated by limiting hydrothermic factors is the primary driving process of the diversity pattern of P.dielsiana in subtropical China.

Relationship between age, size, fecundity and climatic factors in Panax wangianus an endangered medicinal plant in the sacred grove forest of North-East India

Panax wangianus （Syn. Panax pseudoginseng） S. C. Sun （Araliaceae） is a critically endangered, medicinal plant of North-East India. The objective of this study was to determine how plant size affects flowering phenology and to evaluate the effect of climatic factors on flowering, fruiting and seed production. Data on vegetative and repro- ductive characters were monitored from 2016 individuals of Panax wangianus population in Law Lyngdoh, Smit sacred grove in Nongkrem, Shillong, India. Leaflet area was measured by a planimeter. Size variables of both vegetative and reproductive traits in different age classes were measured. Climatic factors were recorded from 2007 to 2009. Age was recorded by counting the number of bud scale scars on the rhizome. Light intensity and relative humidity were measured using a photometer, LiCor Model LI-189 and thermohygrometer respectively. Different climatic variables are correlated with vegetative and reproductive phenological events. Statistical analysis revealed that a strong positive correlation was observed between the age versus vegetative and reproductive characters, except 1%–2% plants showed neoteny. Morphological variations were observed in natural conditions on the basis of the number of prong and carpellate conditions. Phenological status revealed that most of the individuals of the age class 35–50 years and above 50 years contributed the most to flowering, fruiting and seed production. Age class was significant to predict the size of the plant and its reproductive capacity. Climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity show synergistic effect on both the vegetative and reproductive phases in Panax wangianus in the undisturbed Nongkrem sacred grove. The color of flowers of P. wangianus also varied depending upon the sunlight intensity. Therefore, in the view of conservationand management, the age class of 35–50 years and above 50 years is the most important for population sustainability.

Climatic Factors Suitability Analysis of Broad Bean in Kunming

[Objective] The aim was to analyze the suitability of climatic factors for broad bean in Kunming. [Method] The suitability model of broad bean growth and development was established, involving temperature, rainfal , and sunshine, with consideration of bioecology characters of broad beans, in order to make further analysis of suitability of meteorological factors. [Result] Under average climate condition, temperature and sunshine suitability kept higher in the whole growth stage, but rainfal suitability was lower. Hence, lower temperature and insufficient rainfal are limiting factors of broad bean yield. Based on analysis of meteorological factors in 2013, it suggested that temperature and sunshine suitability kept higher in 2013, but rainfal suitability only reached over 0.6 in seedling stage, with rest below. [Conclusion] In the whole growth stage of broad bean in 2013, comprehensive meteorological factors kept middle or higher level and the suitability model reflects suitability of meteorological factors to crops in an objective way, which provides references for improving meteorological services.

Changes in Climate Factors and Their Impacts on Wind Erosion Climatic Erosivity in Farming-pastoral Zone of Northern China

Climate change can affect wind erosion power and hence induce changes in wind erosion rates.In this study,the wind erosion climate factor(C-factor),proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,was used to assess the impact of changes in climate on wind erosion climatic erosivity.The Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect trends in the C-factor during the period of 1961–2017 in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China.Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the sensitivity of the C-factor to changes in key climate factors.Furthermore,a comparison of the contributions of different climate factors was carried out to understand their impact on changes in the C-factor.The results indicated that most of the surveyed region exhibited decreasing trends in wind speed at a confidence level of 90%,while maximum and minimum temperatures showed increasing trends throughout the study area.As a consequence of decreasing wind speed,the annual C-factor exhibited significant decreasing trends,with a mean slope of–0.58/yr.Seasonal analysis revealed that in most regions,the changes in the C-factor had significant decreasing trends in spring,winter,and autumn,while in more than two-thirds of the study area,no significant change trends in the C-factor were detected in summer at a confidence level of 90%.Sensitivity analysis showed that the C-factor was most sensitive to wind speed,and that the sensitivity coefficients from July to September were much higher than those in other months.Contribution analysis revealed that,for most stations,wind speed(with greater values of sensitivity coefficients)was the dominant factor in the change of C-factor,while for some stations,the minimum temperature made the most contribution to the C-factor’s change due to its dramatic changes during the study period.Although the minimum temperature sensitivity coefficient was the lowest of all the sensitivity coefficients,it is urgent to evaluate the expected impact of minimum temperature due to its possible changes in the future.

Responses of Net Primary Productivity to Climatic Factors in Youyang County

Based on monthly data of precipitation,temperature,sunshine duration,wind speed,relative humidity and other climatic factors in Youyang County during 1956-2013,net primary productivity(NPP)in the county was calculated by using a climate productivity model,and effects of changes in climatic factors on NPP in the county were studied.The results show that annual average NPP in Youyang County during 1956-2013was 11.137 t/(hm^2·a),but there were no significant changes over the past 58 years.There was a significantly positive correlation between NPP and annual precipitation or annual mean relative humidity.Under the background of global warming,NPP in Youyang County will face greater pressure,thereby putting pressure on local ecological environment.The research can provide scientific reference for the construction of Youyang County and ecological protection zones in the southeast of Chongqing.

Effects of Main Climatic Factors on Plant Community Characteristics of a Meadow Steppe Under Different Grazing Intensities

This experiment studies the influence of main climatic factors on the structure of grassland plant community under different grazing intensities, determines the influence of climatic factors on the quantitative characteristics of meadow steppe community structure changes, and explores the response and adaptation of meadow steppe biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate changes, so as to provide a reference and basis for rational utilization and management of natural grassland and prediction of development trend of meadow steppe under global climate changes. The results showed that the correlations between grassland community characteristic index and different climatic factors were significantly different under different grazing intensities. The average temperature and annual precipitation in the critical period were the main climatic factors affecting the changes in meadow steppe community characteristics, and the sensitivity of community indexes to the changes in average temperature of the critical period was greater than that to the changes in annual precipitation. The aboveground biomass of zero grazing and moderate grading was positively correlated with the average temperature and annual precipitation during the critical period, and the correlations between aboveground biomass and environmental factors were no significant under heavy grazing.

Analysis on the Climatic Change Characteristics of the Snow Cover Days and Its Influence Factors in Suzhou during Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factors in Suzhou of Anhui Province during recent 50 years. [Method] According to annual snow cover days and correlated data in Suzhou during 1961-2010, by using linear trend method, accumulative anomaly and complete correlation coefficient method, etc., the climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factors in Suzhou were analyzed. [Result] In recent 50 years, the snow cover period in Suzhou presented shortened trend. Except days of snow cover (≥20 cm), the annual snow cover days at each thickness all showed varying degrees of decrease trend. The annual snow cover days had wavy decline trend, and the decline amplitude was 0.84 d/10 a. From the 1960s to prior period of the 1970s, the annual snow cover days presented increase trend. From middle and later periods of the 1970s to middle period of the 1980s, the snow cover days was less and gradually increased from later period of the 1980s to the early 1990s. From middle period of the 1990s to 2003, it entered into less snow period again. From 2004 to now, it presented oscillation of snowy and less-snow alternating. The main climatic factor which affected annual snow cover days in Suzhou was average temperature. The second one was average surface temperature. [Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for analyzing climate variation in Suzhou under the background of global climate warming.

Analysis of Relation between Variation Characteristics and Climatic Influencing Factors of Shallow Ground Temperature in Shijiazhuang

Based on the daily observation data of shallow ground temperature, total cloud cover, precipitation, evaporation capacity and frozen soil of 5 stations in Shijiazhuang from 1981 to 2010, using methods such as linear trend and complete correlation coefficient, relation between variation characteristics and climatic influencing factors of shallow ground temperature was analyzed to lay the foundation for studying impact factors of shallow ground temperature and provide references for daily maintenance of automatic observation business. The results showed that fluctuant variability and fluctuant range of mean shallow layer ground temperature in Shijiazhuang became smaller with soil layer being deeper for all years and seasons, and the fluctuant variability was maximal in spring and minimal in winter, while the fluctuant range was maximal in summer and minimal in winter; mean shallow layer ground temperature for all years had a warming trend with an obvious warming trend in winter, and warming range in winter was smaller and the extent was weaker with soil layer being deeper while a cooling trend occurred in summer; there was a coincident trend between total cloud cover at night and shallow ground temperature in winter, and between evaporation capacity and shallow ground temperature in summer, while there was an inconsistent trend between maximum depth of frozen soil, period of freezing weather and shallow ground temperature in winter, and between total cloud cover in the davtime, orecioitation and shallow around temperature in summer.

Change of Vegetation Cover and Its Relationships with Climatic Factors in Large-area Eucalyptus Introduced Region of Yunnan

Taking Lancang County as a study area with a large area of eucalyptus introduction in Yunnan, spatiotemporal change characteristics of vegetation cover, as well as the relationships between Enhanced Vegetation Index（EVl） and climatic factors （temperature and precipitation） were analyzed by using the data of MODIS-EVI from 2005 to 2010. The results indicated that： （1） The vegetation cover was overall good, and the annual average values of EVl were greater than 0.395 and showed a slow increasing trend from 2005 to 2010 in study area; the monthly average values of EVl ranged from 0.296 to 0.538, and seasonal variability was obvious. Monthly average values of EVl usually fell to the lowest level in February and March, and reached the peak in July and August. From the perspective of space, average EVl over the years significantly varied in different towns of Lancang County. During 2005 -2010, in 92.534% area of total, vegetation coverage change were not obvious; in 7.25% area of total, vegeta- tion becoming better; only in 0.02% area of total, vegetation cover were getting worse. （2） Monthly average values of EVl were significantly correlated with monthly average rainfall in Lancang County. The maxima of monthly average EVI and rainfall appeared in August on summer, while the minima of monthly average EVl and rainfall appeared in February and January on winter respectively. （3） Monthly average EVl was somewhat relative with monthly average temperature. The maxima of monthly average EVl and temperature appeared in June and August respectively, while the minima appeared in January and February respectively.

Maize grain yield and water use efficiency in relation to climatic factors and plant population in northern China

Water scarcity has become a limiting factor for increasing crop production.Finding ways to improve water use efficiency(WUE)has become an urgent task for Chinese agriculture.To understand the response of different maize populations to changes in precipitation and the effects of changes in maize populations on WUE,this study conducted maize population experiments using maize hybrids with different plant types(compact and semi compact)and different planting densities at 25 locations across China.It was found that,as precipitation increased across different locations,maize grain yield first increased and then decreased,while WUE decreased significantly.Analyzing the relationship between WUE and the main climatic factors,this study found that WUE was significantly and negatively correlated with precipitation(R(daily mean precipitation)and R(accumulated precipitation))and was positively correlated with temperature(TM(daily mean maximum temperature),T_(M-m)(T_(m),daily mean minimum temperature)and GDD(growing degree days))and solar radiation(Ra(daily mean solar radiation)and Ra(accumulated solar radiation))over different growth periods.Significant differences in maize grain yield,WUE and precipitation were found at different planting densities.The population densities were ranked as follows according to maize grain yield and WUE based on the multi-site experiment data:60000 plants ha^(-1)(P_(2))>90000 plants ha^(-1)(P_(3))>30000 plants ha^(-1)(P_(1)).Further analysis showed that,as maize population increased,water consumption increased significantly while soil evaporation decreased significantly.Significant differences were found between the WUE of ZD958(compact type)and that of LD981(semi-compact type),as well as among the WUE values at different planting densities.In addition,choosing the optimum hybrid and planting density increased WUE by 21.70 and 14.92%,respectively,which showed that the hybrid played a more significant role than the planting density in improving WUE.Therefore,choosing drought-resistant hybrids could be more effective than increasing the planting density to increase maize grain yield and WUE in northern China.Comprehensive consideration of climatic impacts,drought-resistant hybrids(e.g.,ZD958)and planting density(e.g.,60000 plants ha^(-1))is an effective way to increase maize grain yield and WUE across different regions of China.

Variability of Sea Ice from 2008 to 2019 in the Bohai and Northern Huanghai Sea, China and the Relationship with Climatic Factors

Sea ice has important effect on the marine ecosystem and people living in the surrounding regions in winter.However,the understanding on changes of sea ice in the Bohai and northern Huanghai Sea(BNHS),China is still limited.Based on the images from Visible and InfraRed Radiometer(VIRR)onboard Chinese second generation polar-orbit meteorological series satellites FY-3A/B/C,the sea ice areas in the BNHS were extracted from December 2008 to March 2019,the spatio-temporal distribution charac-teristics of sea ice and the relationship between sea ice area and climatic factors were analyzed,then a preliminary sea ice forecast model based on the climatic factors was developed.The results showed that sea ice area in the BNHS in each December was relatively small and rather high sea ice occurrence probability appeared in the offshore areas in Liaodong Bay and northern Huanghai Sea.The sea ice area in January or February each year was the largest,and sea ice occurred in most of areas in Liaodong Bay and northern Huanghai Sea with rather high probability and in some areas in Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay with relatively high probability.How-ever,the sea ice area in each March was the smallest,and sea ice was even melted completely occasionally,hence with relatively low occurrence probability in Liaodong Bay.As for the inter-annual variability of sea ice in the BNHS during the research period,the sea ice area was largest in winter 2010/11 and smallest in winter 2014/15,and annual sea ice area presented a decreasing trend.The at-mospheric temperature,western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),Asia polar vortex(APV),Asian monsoon circulation(AMC)and Eurasian monsoon circulation(EMC)were very important climatic factors for sea ice formation and they had significant correlations with sea ice area.Therefore,a preliminary sea ice forecast model was constructed by using eight climatic factors including western Pacific subtropical high area index(WPSHAI),western Pacific subtropical high intensity index(WPSHII),western Pacific subtro-pical high northern boundary position index(WPSHNBPI),Asia polar vortex area index(APVAI),Asian zonal circulation index(AZCI),Asian meridional circulation index(AMCI),Eurasian zonal circulation index(EZCI)and mean minimum atmospheric tem-perature(MMAT).The model was confirmed to have a robust forecast effect by using F-test and validated sample data.The results are useful for monitoring sea ice with remote sensed data and forecasting sea ice conditions by climatic indices.