Logistic Regression Analysis the Risk Factors of Peripherally Inserted Central Catheter Related Blood Stream Infection of Tumor Patients

Objective: Our object is to study risk factors of tumor patients’ PICC catheter-related blood stream infection. Method: a retrospective analysis of data of 586 PICC catheterized patients was implemented, a univariate analysis of general data and catheterizing data of tumor patients was then carried out, and data of single factors with statistical significance were incorporated into multi-factor Logistic regression model for analysis. Results: PICC catheter-related blood stream infection occurred to 16 patients, and occurrence rate was 2.73%. Multi-factor Logistic regression analysis results showed that number of puncturing times, positioning method and maintenance frequency were risk factors for tumor patients’ peripherally inserted central catheter catheter-related blood stream infection, and odds risk values were respectively 8.762, 9.253 and 10.324. Conclusion: for tumor patients implanted with peripherally inserted central catheters, using ECG positioning during strict sterile operation and catheterizing process to avoid repeated puncturing and increasing maintenance frequency could effectively reduce occurrence of PICC catheter-related blood stream infection.

Risk factors and care of early surgical site infection after primary posterior lumbar interbody fusion

Objectives:To explore the risk factors and nursing measures of early surgical site infection(SSI)after posterior lumbar interbody fusion(PLIF).Methods:A total of 468 patients who received PLIF in our hospital from January 2017 to June 2020 were enrolled into this study.According to the occurrence of early SSI,the patients were divided into two groups,and the general data were analyzed by univariate analysis.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted with the dichotomous variable of whether early SSI occurred and other factors as independent variables to identify the risk factors of early SSI and put forward targeted prevention and nursing measures.Results:Among 468 patients with PLIF,18 patients developed early SSI(3.85%).The proportion of female,age,diabetes mellitus and urinary tract infection(UTI),operation segment,operation time,post-operative drainage volume,and drainage time were significantly higher than those in the uninfected group,with statistical significance(P<0.05),whereas the preoperative albumin and hemoglobin in the infected group were significantly lower than those in the uninfected group,with statistical significance(P<0.05).There was no significant difference between the two groups in the American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA)grading,body mass index(BMI),complications including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases or hypertension(P>0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative diabetes mellitus(OR=2.109,P=0.012)/UTI(OR=1.526,P=0.035),prolonged drainage time(OR=1.639,P=0.029)were risk factors for early SSI.Men(OR=0.736,P=0.027)and albumin level(OR=0.526,P=0.004)were protective factors in reducing early SSI.Conclusions:Women,preoperative diabetes/UTI,hypoproteinemia,and prolonged drainage time are risk factors for early SSI after PLIF.Clinical effective preventive measures should be taken in combination with targeted nursing intervention to reduce the risk of early SSI.

Analysis of risk factors for central venous port failure in cancer patients

AIM: To analyze the risk factors for central port failure in cancer patients administered chemotherapy, using univariate and multivariate analyses. METHODS: A total of 1348 totally implantable venous access devices (TIVADs) were implanted into 1280 cancer patients in this cohort study. A Cox proportional hazard model was applied to analyze risk factors for failure of TIVADs. Log-rank test was used to compare actuarial survival rates. Infection, thrombosis, and surgical complication rates (χ2 test or Fisher's exact test) were compared in relation to the risk factors. RESULTS: Increasing age, male gender and openended catheter use were signifi cant risk factors reducing survival of TIVADs as determined by univariate and multivariate analyses. Hematogenous malignancy decreased the survival time of TIVADs; this reduction was not statistically signifi cant by univariate analysis [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.336, 95% CI: 0.966-1.849, P = 0.080)]. However, it became a signifi cant risk factor by multivariate analysis (HR = 1.499, 95% CI: 1.079-2.083, P = 0.016) when correlated with variables of age, sex and catheter type. Close-ended (Groshong) catheters had a lower thrombosis rate than open-ended catheters (2.5% vs 5%, P = 0.015). Hematogenous malignancy had higher infection rates than solid malignancy (10.5% vs 2.5%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Increasing age, male gender, openended catheters and hematogenous malignancy were risk factors for TIVAD failure. Close-ended catheters had lower thrombosis rates and hematogenous malignancy had higher infection rates.

Analysis of risk factors for epilepsy after stroke

Objective To explore the risk factors for epilepsy induced by stroke. Methods There were 179 patients with epilepsy caused by stroke,and 1 447 patients with cerebrovascular disorders without epilepsy after stroke. Multivariate noncondition stepwise logistic model analysis was made after single variable analysis.Results The following four factors were associated with epilepsy, i.e., large size of cerebral hemorrhage or cerebral infarction,subarachnoid hemorrhage, electrolyte disturbances and cortical lesions.Conclusion Epilepsy induced by stroke is mainly associated with the size of brain tissue necrosis.

影响结核性胸腔积液并发胸膜增厚的非条件Logistic回归分析

目的探讨影响结核性胸腔积液并发胸膜增厚的相关危险因素。方法回顾性分析2019年1月至2021年3月广州市胸科医院呼吸内科收治的123例结核性胸腔积液患者的临床资料,统计患者胸膜增厚情况,采用单因素及非条件Logistic回归法分析患者胸膜增厚的影响因素。结果胸膜未增厚与胸膜增厚患者性别、年龄、肺结核、胸水分布、用力肺活量(FVC)、第1秒用力呼气容积(FVE1)/FVC、胸水腺苷脱氨酶(ADA)、血清ADA、胸水白细胞、胸水淋巴细胞、胸水中性粒细胞和淋巴细胞比例比较差异无统计学意义;胸膜未增厚与胸膜增厚患者胸水量、胸水吸收时间、FVE1、胸水乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)、血清LDH、胸水蛋白、血清蛋白比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析结果显示,胸水量(中大量)、FVE1、胸水LDH、血清LDH、胸水蛋白及血清蛋白是胸膜增厚发生的危险因素(P<0.05)。结论结核性胸腔积液并发胸膜增厚是多因素作用的结果,胸水量、FVE1、胸水吸收时间、胸水LDH、血清LDH、胸水蛋白和血清蛋白与胸膜增厚的发生密切相关,建议临床予以密切监测并积极采取针对性干预措施。

Risk factor analysis of post-ERCP cholangitis: A single-center experience

Background: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP) may have complications. Our study aimed to investigate the risk factors and prevention of post-ERCP cholangitis.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 4234 cases undergone ERCP in the Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School from January 2008 to December 2013. Patient-related factors and procedure-related factors were analyzed to find the risk factors of post-ERCP cholangitis. The time point of post-ERCP cholangitis was also analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to define the independent risk factors of post-ERCP cholangitis.Results: The success rate of ERCP was 96.8%(4099/4234). The overall complication rate was 9.4%(399/4234). Post-ERCP cholangitis occurred in 102 cases(2.4%, 102/4234). The most dangerous time of post-ERCP cholangitis was from 24 h–48 h after ERCP(45.1%, 46/102). Univariate analysis revealed that age, hypertension, diabetes, previous ERCP history, biliary stent insertion, pancreatography, endoscopic sphincterotomy, balloon dilation and hilar obstruction were risk factors of post-ERCP cholangitis(P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that age, previous ERCP history and hilar obstruction were independent risk factors(P < 0.05). While endoscopic stone extraction was the potential protective factor.Conclusions: Many risk factors are involved in post-ERCP cholangitis. Among them, old age, previous ERCP history and hilar obstruction were independently related to this post-ERCP complication.

Investigation of contemporary college students’mental health status and construction of a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND Due to academic pressure,social relations,and the change of adapting to independent life,college students are under high levels of pressure.Therefore,it is very important to study the mental health problems of college students.Developing a predictive model that can detect early warning signals of college students’mental health risks can help support early intervention and improve overall well-being.AIM To investigate college students’present psychological well-being,identify the contributing factors to its decline,and construct a predictive nomogram model.METHODS We analyzed the psychological health status of 40874 university students in selected universities in Hubei Province,China from March 1 to 15,2022,using online questionnaires and random sampling.Factors influencing their mental health were also analyzed using the logistic regression approach,and R4.2.3 software was employed to develop a nomogram model for risk prediction.RESULTS We randomly selected 918 valid data and found that 11.3%of college students had psychological problems.The results of the general data survey showed that the mental health problems of doctoral students were more prominent than those of junior college students,and the mental health of students from rural areas was more likely to be abnormal than that of urban students.In addition,students who had experienced significant life events and divorced parents were more likely to have an abnormal status.The abnormal group exhibited significantly higher Patient Health Questionnaire-9(PHQ-9)and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 scores than the healthy group,with these differences being statistically significant(P<0.05).The nomogram prediction model drawn by multivariate analysis includ-ed six predictors:The place of origin,whether they were single children,whether there were significant life events,parents’marital status,regular exercise,intimate friends,and the PHQ-9 score.The training set demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)of 0.972[95%confidence interval(CI):0.947-0.997],a specificity of 0.888 and a sensitivity of 0.972.Similarly,the validation set had a ROC AUC of 0.979(95%CI:0.955-1.000),with a specificity of 0.942 and a sensitivity of 0.939.The H-L deviation test result was χ^(2)=32.476,P=0.000007,suggesting that the model calibration was good.CONCLUSION In this study,nearly 11.3%of contemporary college students had psychological problems,the risk factors include students from rural areas,divorced parents,non-single children,infrequent exercise,and significant life events.

Risk factors of admission for acute colonic diverticulitis in a population-based cohort study: The North Trondelag Health Study, Norway

AIM To assess risk factors of hospital admission for acute colonic diverticulitis.METHODS The study was conducted as part of the second wave of the population-based North Trondelag Health Study(HUNT2), performed in North Trondelag County, Norway, 1995 to 1997. The study consisted of 42570 participants(65.1% from HUNT2) who were followed up from 1998 to 2012. Of these, 22436(52.7%) were females. The cases were defined as those 358 participants admitted with acute colonic diverticulitis during follow-up. The remaining participants were used as controls. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses was used for each sex separately after multiple imputation to calculate HR.RESULTS Multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that increasing age increased the risk of admission for acute colonic diverticulitis: Comparing with ages < 50 years, females with age 50-70 years had HR = 3.42, P < 0.001 and age > 70 years, HR = 6.19, P < 0.001. In males the corresponding values were HR = 1.85, P = 0.004 and 2.56, P < 0.001. In patients with obesity(body mass index ≥ 30) the HR = 2.06, P < 0.001 in females and HR = 2.58, P < 0.001 in males. In females, present(HR = 2.11, P < 0.001) or previous(HR = 1.65, P = 0.007) cigarette smoking increased the risk of admission. In males, breathlessness(HR = 2.57, P < 0.001) and living in rural areas(HR = 1.74, P = 0.007) increased the risk. Level of education, physical activity, constipation and type of bread eaten showed no association with admission for acute colonic diverticulitis.CONCLUSION The risk of hospital admission for acute colonic diverticulitis increased with increasing age, in obese individuals, in ever cigarette smoking females and in males living in rural areas.

Holistic Evaluation of the Morbidity Due to Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 and Its Main Risk Factors in the State of San Luis Potosi, Mexico

Objective: To evaluate the morbidity due to diabetes mellitus type 2 within the State of San Luis Potosí, México, through a strong methodology, through which the multivariate relations were identified of the main social and environmental determiners in the disease, thus managing to quantify their respective levels of responsibility. Material and Methods: This evaluation began as a hypothesis of a multicasual theoretical model on diabetes mellitus and its main determining factors, which was analyzed through the application of multivariate exploratory statistical methodologies and confirmed as it is the case of the principal components analysis and the structural equation models. Results: Three components were extracted that explain the 96% of the total variance of the indicators;the main risk factors which were identified in the first component were, the use of the car, age, homes with TV use, urban life and feminine population;the indicators from the second and third component have little influence in the impact of the disease. Conclusions: the study shows the usefulness of the model for the analysis and prioritization of the environmental and social determiners of the disease, information that could sustain the design of public guidelines for the prevention and control of the analyzed disease.

Risk factors and prediction of macrosomia in a cohort study

Objective: To investigate the risk factors of macrosomia and to predict the risk of macrosomia so as to reduce the incidence of macrosomia. Methods: A total of 2063 pregnant women who met the inclusion criteria were selected as the subjects from February 2016 to April 2017 in Jiading District Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Shanghai and Pudong New Area Maternal and Child Health Hospital. According to the birth weight of the neonates, the neonates were divided into the macrosomia group (neonatal weight > 4000 g, n=125) and the normal infant group (2500 g < neonatal weight < 4000 g, n=1938).The general data of age, number of pregnant women, BMI before pregnancy, gestational diabetes mellitus, glucose tolerance, weight gain during pregnancy, birth weight and gestational week were compared between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of macrosomia. Results: ①There were significant differences in BMI, glucose tolerance, fasting blood sugar, weight gain in the second trimester, weight gain in the third trimester, birth weight and gestational week between the two groups (P<0.05). ②Single factor analysis showed that pre-pregnancy BMI, gestational week at first diagnosis, fasting blood glucose tolerance, weight gain in the second trimester, weight gain in the third trimester, gestational week and birth weight were the influencing factors of macrosomia (P<0.05). ③Multi-factor analysis showed that gestational weeks, gestational diabetes, fasting glucose tolerance and weight growth in the second trimester were the main factors affecting the production of macrosomia, among which gestational diabetes was the protective factor, while gestational weeks, fasting glucose tolerance and weight growth in the second trimester were the risk factors. Conclusion: The high risk factors for macrosomia are gestational weeks, glucose tolerance, fasting blood sugar and weight gain in the second trimester of pregnancy.We should strengthen regular obstetric examination, health care during pregnancy, reasonable diet and proper exercise, and strictly control the weight gain during the second trimester of pregnancy. At the same time, we should monitor blood sugar in time so as to reduce the incidence of macrosomia.

夏季建筑工地食堂食物中毒调查及危险因素的Logistic回归分析

目的:调查夏季营口市鲅鱼圈区2处建筑工地食堂食物中毒事件,查找该事件发生原因及致病因素,为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法:按照国家有关食品安全标准与调查技术规范,对营口市鲅鱼圈区建筑工地食堂进行食物中毒筛查,对发生食物中毒工地的相关人员进行流行病学调查,并对病例、食堂留样食物开展相关病原菌分离培养,记录实验室检测信息。结果:2处建筑工地食堂就餐274人,共计209人发生食物中毒。食物中毒符合点源暴露模式,病例临床主要表现为恶心、头晕、呕吐;通过回顾性队列研究和Logistic回归分析发现,荤素包子与梅菜扣肉为食物中毒事件的可疑食品。结论:综合分析流行病学调查结果、现场卫生学调查及病例临床症状等,确定此次事件是因细菌引起的食物中毒事件,荤素包子与梅菜扣肉为最终致病食品。

Multivariate Analysis of Femoral Adductor Muscle Contracture after Total Hip Arthroplasty in Patients with Avascular Necrosis of Femoral Head

Objective:This study is to investigate the nisk factors of femoral head contracture after total hip arthroplasty(THA)in patients with avascular necrosis of femoral head.Methods:Retrospective analysis was perfomed in 361 cases of femoral head necrosis patients taking THA fom September 2016 to December 2017.A total of 179 patents with no significant preoperative adductor muscle contraction were finally enrolled in this study.These 179 patients were further divided into two groups:contracture group(64 cases)and noncompaction group(115 cases).The chi-square test was used to compare the differences between the two groups.Risk factors were identifed by logistic regession analysis.Results:of the patients included,64 patients (35.75%)developed into end adductor muscle contracture.There were signuificant differences in limb shortening.surgical history,whether taction,surgical approach,surgical methods,and fumctional training between the two goups(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that shortness of extremity,sugical approach,effective taction,surgical history,and etiology were the factors affecting femoral head contracture after THA in patients with avascular necrosis of femoral head.Conclusions:Preoperative traction therapy,surgical methods,and postoperative functional training are the factors that affect the adductor muscle contraction after THA.

基于Logistic回归分析217例复杂性肛瘘患者术后肛门功能障碍的中西医危险因素研究

目的 探讨复杂性肛瘘术后并发肛门功能障碍的中西医危险因素。方法 回顾性分析2020年7月至2022年1月福建中医药大学附属人民医院肛肠科收治的217例复杂性肛瘘患者的临床资料。根据是否出现术后肛门功能障碍将患者分为功能障碍组(47例)及功能正常组(170例)。结合患者围手术期情况、手术方式选择、中医诊疗因素3方面变量进行单因素分析及多因素Logistic回归分析。结果 术后并发肛门功能障碍的发生率为21.66%,严重程度以轻度为主[美国克利夫兰医学中心肛门失禁评分(Cleveland Clinic Florida Fecal incontinence score, CCFIS)为(3.72±0.949)分]。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示:括约肌上瘘(OR=6.036,95%CI 1.809~20.140,P=0.003)、有1次以上的既往手术史(OR=15.597,95%CI 3.371~72.439,P=0.000)、手术方式为切割挂线术(OR=1.435,95%CI 1.088~1.894,P=0.011)、中医证候为气血两虚型(OR=2.762,95%CI 1.002~7.613,P=0.049)或正虚邪恋型(OR=5.339,95%CI 1.277~12.318,P=0.022)5个因素为复杂性肛瘘术后并发肛门功能障碍的独立危险因素(P<0.05);静息压值(OR=0.107,95%CI 0.033~0.345,P=0.000)、术后有中药干预治疗(OR=0.311,95%CI 0.122~0.790,P=0.014)与术后肛门功能障碍呈负相关(P<0.05,OR<1),为术后肛门功能的保护性因素。结论 复杂性肛瘘术后并发肛门功能障碍的西医危险因素为括约肌上瘘、有1次以上既往手术史、手术方式为切割挂线术、低静息压;中医危险因素为气血两虚型或正虚邪恋型肛瘘、术后无中药干预;实现术后风险因素的早期识别,可为临床复杂性肛瘘个体化治疗方案的选择提供良好的参考依据。

Risk factors for intussusception in children with Henoch-Schönlein purpura:A case-control study

BACKGROUND The etiology of Henoch-Schönlein purpura(HSP)with intussusception remains undefined.AIM To investigate the risk factors for intussusception in children with HSP and gastrointestinal(GI)involvement.METHODS Sixty children with HSP and concomitant intussusception admitted to the Beijing Children’s Hospital of Capital Medical University between January 2006 and December 2018 were enrolled in this study.One hundred pediatric patients with HSP and GI involvement but without intussusception,admitted to the same hospital during the same period,were randomly selected as a control group.The baseline clinical characteristics of all patients,including sex,age of onset,duration of disease,clinical manifestations,laboratory test results,and treatments provided,were assessed.Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify possible risk factors.RESULTS The 60 children in the intussusception group comprised 27 girls(45%)and 33 boys(55%)and the 100 children in the non-intussusception group comprised 62 girls(62%)and 38 boys(38%).The median age of all patients were 6 years and 5 mo.Univariate and multiple regression analyses revealed age at onset,not receiving glucocorticoid therapy within 72 h of emergence of GI symptoms,hematochezia,and D-dimer levels as independent risk factors for intussusception in children with HSP(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The four independent risk factors for intussusception in pediatric HSP with GI involvement would be a reference for early prevention and treatment of this potentially fatal disease.

基于IBM-SPSS与机器学习的logistic回归对院内感染肺炎克雷伯菌发生多重耐药关联因素的分析方法比较

背景 近年来随着人工智能的发展,各种机器学习的模型开始在临床中初步应用。目的 分别使用基于SPSS 26.0的logistic回归与基于机器学习逻辑回归模型(logistic regression,LR)分析院内感染多重耐药肺炎克雷伯菌(multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae,MDR-KPN)的关联因素,比较两种方法的差异。方法 选取2016年1月-2020年12月清华大学附属北京清华长庚医院肺炎克雷伯菌院内感染病例254例,包括MDR-KPN 168例和非MDR-KPN(敏感菌株)86例,用两种不同的logistic回归方法对数据进行处理。结果 基于SPSS 26.0的logistic多因素分析显示,患有肝病、感染前3个月内有胸腔穿刺史、感染前3个月内有动脉穿刺史、感染前3个月内气管插管史是发生MDR-KPN院内感染的独立关联因素。LR模型分析显示,气管插管是发生MDR-KPN院内感染的最主要关联因素,前5位的关联因素为气管插管、基础肝病史、年龄18~49岁的人群、碳青霉烯类药物暴露史、中心静脉置管史。结论 两种分析方法得到的MDR-KPN院内感染关联因素具有一定的吻合度,提示了LR模型应用于MDR-KPN院内感染预测的可行性;此外LR模型有高效、便捷、准确率可量化的优势,在临床诊疗中可能有更广阔的应用前景。

2型糖尿病合并高血压患者颈动脉粥样硬化斑块形成的危险因素Logistic回归分析

目的探讨分析2型糖尿病(T2DM)合并高血压(HBp)患者颈动脉粥样硬化斑块形成的危险因素。方法回顾187例T2DM合并HBp患者的临床资料,统计颈动脉粥样硬化斑块形成率,总结可能导致T2DM合并HBp患者形成颈动脉粥样硬化斑块的危险因素,给予描述性检验和Logistic回归分析。结果本组病例中共有82例形成颈动脉粥样硬化斑块,发生率为43.85%;形成组和未形成组在性别、BMI的构成比差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),形成组年龄>60岁、T2DM病程>10年、HBp病程>10年、HBp3级、HbAlc>7.1%、合并高脂血症、合并高血同型半胱氨酸症、吸烟指数>400支年/天的构成比均明显高于未形成组(P<0.05);经Logistic回归分析可知,年龄>60岁、T2DM病程>10年、HBp病程>10年、HBp 3级、HbAlc>7.1%、合并高脂血症、合并高同型半胱氨酸血症、吸烟指数>400支年/天均是T2DM合并HBp患者颈动脉粥样硬化斑块形成的独立危险因素(OR=3.651、3.074、3.123、5.244、6.190、3.999、7.185、3.070)。结论T2DM合并HBp患者颈动脉粥样硬化斑块形成率高,年龄>60岁、T2DM病程>10年、HBp病程>10年、HBp 3级、HbAlc>7.1%、合并高脂血症、合并高血同型半胱氨酸症及吸烟指数>400支年/天等均是其独立危险因素,需加强防控。

瘦人非酒精性脂肪性肝病与中医证型及相关危险因素的Logistic回归分析

目的探讨瘦人非酒精性脂肪性肝病(Lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease,Lean NAFLD)中医证型的分布规律及与发病相关危险因素的关系。方法选取2019年9月—2021年2月期间上海地区498例入组人群(Lean NAFLD患者98例,非瘦型NAFLD患者302例,正常健康人群98例)进行中医证型判定,运用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析中医证型与相关危险因素的关联性。结果Lean NAFLD患者的中医证型主要集中在肝郁脾虚证、痰浊内阻证和肝郁气滞证。其相关因素的单因素logistic回归显示,腰围、年龄(45~60岁)、TC是Lean NAFLD的危险因素。保持运动习惯是Lean NAFLD的保护因素。Lean NAFLD基本证型的多因素logistic回归显示:肝郁脾虚证中,腰围、FINS是独立危险因素;痰浊内阻证中,HOMA-IR、年龄是独立危险因素;肝郁气滞证中,Hb是独立危险因素。结论肝郁脾虚证、痰浊内阻证和肝郁气滞证为Lean NAFL D的主要中医证型,其中肝郁脾虚证与腹型肥胖、胰岛素抵抗有关,痰浊内阻证与年龄、胰岛素抵抗有关,肝郁气滞证与血红蛋白有关。

Environmental risk factors in children with cerebral palsy in Jiamusi,China

Most current studies focus on statistics of the incidence, etiology, and rehabilitative treatment of cerebral palsy. However, very few studies focus on the environmental risk factors for this syndrome In the present study, a total of 202 children with cerebral palsy in the Jiamusi district of China were selected as the case group, and 404 children were randomly selected for the control group. The survey focused on environmental factors during pregnancy, which included indoor pollution as the most dangerous factor （odds ratio = 2.432, 95% confidence interval = 1.172-5.047; P = 0.017）, followed by use of high-radiation mobile phones, more than 5 hours of watching television per day, and cooking with a marble kitchen platform during pregnancy. Results demonstrated that environmental risk factors play a role in the development of cerebral palsy in children.

基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明:外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Western Henan Province based on a comparison of conventional and ensemble machine learning

Landslide is a serious natural disaster next only to earthquake and flood,which will cause a great threat to people’s lives and property safety.The traditional research of landslide disaster based on experience-driven or statistical model and its assessment results are subjective,difficult to quantify,and no pertinence.As a new research method for landslide susceptibility assessment,machine learning can greatly improve the landslide susceptibility model’s accuracy by constructing statistical models.Taking Western Henan for example,the study selected 16 landslide influencing factors such as topography,geological environment,hydrological conditions,and human activities,and 11 landslide factors with the most significant influence on the landslide were selected by the recursive feature elimination(RFE)method.Five machine learning methods[Support Vector Machines(SVM),Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA)]were used to construct the spatial distribution model of landslide susceptibility.The models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and statistical index.After analysis and comparison,the XGBoost model(AUC 0.8759)performed the best and was suitable for dealing with regression problems.The model had a high adaptability to landslide data.According to the landslide susceptibility map of the five models,the overall distribution can be observed.The extremely high and high susceptibility areas are distributed in the Funiu Mountain range in the southwest,the Xiaoshan Mountain range in the west,and the Yellow River Basin in the north.These areas have large terrain fluctuations,complicated geological structural environments and frequent human engineering activities.The extremely high and highly prone areas were 12043.3 km^(2)and 3087.45 km^(2),accounting for 47.61%and 12.20%of the total area of the study area,respectively.Our study reflects the distribution of landslide susceptibility in western Henan Province,which provides a scientific basis for regional disaster warning,prediction,and resource protection.The study has important practical significance for subsequent landslide disaster management.