Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role...Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.展开更多
为改善传统N-Calculator模型的局限性,加强食物氮足迹核算结果与环境影响的联系,提高活性氮管理预见性,将N-Calculator模型与食物系统养分流动(Nutrient Flows in Food Chains,Environment and Resources Use,NUFER)模型进行耦合,以估...为改善传统N-Calculator模型的局限性,加强食物氮足迹核算结果与环境影响的联系,提高活性氮管理预见性,将N-Calculator模型与食物系统养分流动(Nutrient Flows in Food Chains,Environment and Resources Use,NUFER)模型进行耦合,以估算我国2001—2020年人均食物氮足迹,建立组合预测体系。结果显示:2001—2020年,我国人均食物氮足迹由16.04 kg N/a增至18.95 kg N/a;全国食物氮足迹由20.47 Mt N/a增至26.76 Mt N/a;居民饮食结构正由以植物源食物为主的低氮消费模式转向以动物源食物为主的高氮消费模式;食物生产过程产生的活性氮的最终归宿为大气(64.3%)、水体和深层土壤(35.7%);我国食物氮足迹与人均可支配收入、城市化率、动物源食物消费氮占比呈正相关性,与恩格尔系数呈负相关性;未来10 a我国人均食物氮足迹呈增长趋势,预测结果显示年均增幅为0.16 kg N/a。展开更多
Binomial N-mixture models are commonly applied to estimate abundance unaffected by imperfect detection,but are known to be sensitive to violations of assumptions.One of the model’s assumptions,the independence of det...Binomial N-mixture models are commonly applied to estimate abundance unaffected by imperfect detection,but are known to be sensitive to violations of assumptions.One of the model’s assumptions,the independence of detections has rarely been tested.It requires that during a survey,detection of one individual does not affect detection of another individual.This assumption can be frequently violated in passerine birds,which exhibit territorial behaviour by singing,since neighbouring individuals are likely to motivate each other to vocalize,leading to non-independence in singing activity and in the following detection rate.Here,we explored this phenomenon with the generalized,binomial version of the N-mixture model,where detection probability is decomposed into availability probability φ-which can be interpreted as per capita song rate or the probability of vocalising-and actual detection probability p,given vocalisations take place.Using repeated counts of the Collared Flycatcher(Ficedula albicollis)as a case study,and treating the maximum observed counts C_(maxi) at a site i as an explanatory covariate for φ,we showed that per capita song rates increased with observed counts at a site.Hence,if song rates vary due to local abundance,including C_(maxi)as an explanatory variable for song rate addressed with φ,helps to explain this variation(which otherwise goes undetected)and improves inferences under the model.This had strong effects on the resulting abundance estimates:if this relationship was ignored in the models,total estimated population sizes were consequently lower by as much as 22-27%,compared to when this effect was included.Since it is likely that song rates may commonly be density-dependent in birds manifesting territorial behaviours by singing,further tests addressing violations of independence assumptions in these models are needed.As suggested by Kery and Royle(2016),despite some form of circularity likely being involved,modelling heterogeneity in the detection process with the help of C_(maxi)in standard N-mixture models(which,given availability,conflate availability with detection in a single parameter)should be applicable as well.展开更多
Mesopelagic fish,the most important daily vertically migrating community in the oceans,are characterized by high lipid content which may obscure the interpretation of stable isotopes analysis.Demersal fish,which are i...Mesopelagic fish,the most important daily vertically migrating community in the oceans,are characterized by high lipid content which may obscure the interpretation of stable isotopes analysis.Demersal fish,which are important consumers in the food web dominated by mesopelagic fish,also have a high lipid content.Here we collected 127 fish samples from the South China Sea and evaluated the effect of lipid contents on△δ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish.In lipid-extracted mesopelagic fish,the C/N content ratio(<5.5)shows a clear correlation withΔδ^(13)C(the offset of bulk and lipid-extractedδ^(13)C values),especially in non-migratory and semi-migratory species;these values were less correlation in demersal fish.Based on our results,we suggest that mesopelagic and demersal fish in different regions of the South China Sea should be studied separately using appropriate correction models and less fit for the traditional model.Moreover,the C/N content ratio should be used cautiously for establishing the lipid normalization model,especially for the fish in migratory mesopelagic fish and demersal fish.Our results also reveal that mesopelagic fish across nearby regions could be analyzed together.The new models described here can be applied in future studies of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea.展开更多
优化营商环境降低了微观主体投资调整成本,改变了宏观经济政策运行的微观环境。构建具有微观基础的宏观NKQ-DSGE(New Keynesian with Tobin s Q-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型,研究“营商环境优化”对“财政政策提效”...优化营商环境降低了微观主体投资调整成本,改变了宏观经济政策运行的微观环境。构建具有微观基础的宏观NKQ-DSGE(New Keynesian with Tobin s Q-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型,研究“营商环境优化”对“财政政策提效”的影响。研究发现:优化营商环境会降低投资调整成本,从而增强政策的托宾Q效应,但对积极财政政策而言是一把双刃剑;对于财政支出政策和降低消费税政策,优化营商环境会加剧政策对私人投资的挤出效应,从而降低政策乘数和弱化政策效果;对于降低资本税政策和降低劳动税政策,优化营商环境会提升政策对私人投资的促进效应,从而提高政策乘数和强化政策效果。因此,应偏向于使用乘数较大的政策工具,同时政策工具之间应协调配合,实现财政政策从“加力”向“提效”转型。展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the Yunnan Scientist Workstation on International River Research of Daming He(No.KXJGZS-2019-005)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201040)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Project of China(No.2016YFA0601601)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M733006)。
文摘Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.
文摘为改善传统N-Calculator模型的局限性,加强食物氮足迹核算结果与环境影响的联系,提高活性氮管理预见性,将N-Calculator模型与食物系统养分流动(Nutrient Flows in Food Chains,Environment and Resources Use,NUFER)模型进行耦合,以估算我国2001—2020年人均食物氮足迹,建立组合预测体系。结果显示:2001—2020年,我国人均食物氮足迹由16.04 kg N/a增至18.95 kg N/a;全国食物氮足迹由20.47 Mt N/a增至26.76 Mt N/a;居民饮食结构正由以植物源食物为主的低氮消费模式转向以动物源食物为主的高氮消费模式;食物生产过程产生的活性氮的最终归宿为大气(64.3%)、水体和深层土壤(35.7%);我国食物氮足迹与人均可支配收入、城市化率、动物源食物消费氮占比呈正相关性,与恩格尔系数呈负相关性;未来10 a我国人均食物氮足迹呈增长趋势,预测结果显示年均增幅为0.16 kg N/a。
基金funded by the General Directorate for Environmental Protection,Poland,within the inventory of birds in the SPA Natura 2000 Napiwodzko-Ramucka Forest。
文摘Binomial N-mixture models are commonly applied to estimate abundance unaffected by imperfect detection,but are known to be sensitive to violations of assumptions.One of the model’s assumptions,the independence of detections has rarely been tested.It requires that during a survey,detection of one individual does not affect detection of another individual.This assumption can be frequently violated in passerine birds,which exhibit territorial behaviour by singing,since neighbouring individuals are likely to motivate each other to vocalize,leading to non-independence in singing activity and in the following detection rate.Here,we explored this phenomenon with the generalized,binomial version of the N-mixture model,where detection probability is decomposed into availability probability φ-which can be interpreted as per capita song rate or the probability of vocalising-and actual detection probability p,given vocalisations take place.Using repeated counts of the Collared Flycatcher(Ficedula albicollis)as a case study,and treating the maximum observed counts C_(maxi) at a site i as an explanatory covariate for φ,we showed that per capita song rates increased with observed counts at a site.Hence,if song rates vary due to local abundance,including C_(maxi)as an explanatory variable for song rate addressed with φ,helps to explain this variation(which otherwise goes undetected)and improves inferences under the model.This had strong effects on the resulting abundance estimates:if this relationship was ignored in the models,total estimated population sizes were consequently lower by as much as 22-27%,compared to when this effect was included.Since it is likely that song rates may commonly be density-dependent in birds manifesting territorial behaviours by singing,further tests addressing violations of independence assumptions in these models are needed.As suggested by Kery and Royle(2016),despite some form of circularity likely being involved,modelling heterogeneity in the detection process with the help of C_(maxi)in standard N-mixture models(which,given availability,conflate availability with detection in a single parameter)should be applicable as well.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42090043 and 41876074the National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract No.2014CB441502.
文摘Mesopelagic fish,the most important daily vertically migrating community in the oceans,are characterized by high lipid content which may obscure the interpretation of stable isotopes analysis.Demersal fish,which are important consumers in the food web dominated by mesopelagic fish,also have a high lipid content.Here we collected 127 fish samples from the South China Sea and evaluated the effect of lipid contents on△δ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish.In lipid-extracted mesopelagic fish,the C/N content ratio(<5.5)shows a clear correlation withΔδ^(13)C(the offset of bulk and lipid-extractedδ^(13)C values),especially in non-migratory and semi-migratory species;these values were less correlation in demersal fish.Based on our results,we suggest that mesopelagic and demersal fish in different regions of the South China Sea should be studied separately using appropriate correction models and less fit for the traditional model.Moreover,the C/N content ratio should be used cautiously for establishing the lipid normalization model,especially for the fish in migratory mesopelagic fish and demersal fish.Our results also reveal that mesopelagic fish across nearby regions could be analyzed together.The new models described here can be applied in future studies of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea.
文摘优化营商环境降低了微观主体投资调整成本,改变了宏观经济政策运行的微观环境。构建具有微观基础的宏观NKQ-DSGE(New Keynesian with Tobin s Q-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型,研究“营商环境优化”对“财政政策提效”的影响。研究发现:优化营商环境会降低投资调整成本,从而增强政策的托宾Q效应,但对积极财政政策而言是一把双刃剑;对于财政支出政策和降低消费税政策,优化营商环境会加剧政策对私人投资的挤出效应,从而降低政策乘数和弱化政策效果;对于降低资本税政策和降低劳动税政策,优化营商环境会提升政策对私人投资的促进效应,从而提高政策乘数和强化政策效果。因此,应偏向于使用乘数较大的政策工具,同时政策工具之间应协调配合,实现财政政策从“加力”向“提效”转型。
