Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a clinical risk model that is predictive of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients hos- pitalized with acute heart failure （AHF）. Methods 2486 patients who were 60 ...Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a clinical risk model that is predictive of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients hos- pitalized with acute heart failure （AHF）. Methods 2486 patients who were 60 years and older from intensive care units of Cardiology De- partment in the hospital were analyzed. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were obtained by binary logistic regression and then used to establish the risk prediction score system （RPSS）. The area under the curve （AUC） of receiver operator characteristic and C-statistic test were adopted to assess the performance of RPSS and to compare with previous get with the guidelines-heart failure （GWTG-HF）. Re- sults By binary logistic regression analysis, heart rate （OR： 1.043, 95% CI： 1.030-1.057, P 〈 0.001）, left ventricular ejection fraction （OR： 0.918, 95% CI： 0.833~）.966, P 〈 0.001）, pH value （OR： 0.001, 95% CI： 0.000-0.002, P 〈 0.001）, renal dysfunction （OR： 0.120, 95% CI： 0.066M）.220, P 〈 0.001） and NT-pro BNP （OR： 3.463, 95% CI： 1.870-6.413, P 〈 0.001） were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortal- ity for elderly AHF patients. Additionally, RPSS, which was composed of all the above-mentioned parameters, provided a better risk predic- tion than GWTG-THF （AUC： 0.873 vs. 0.818, P = 0.016）. Conclusions Our risk prediction model, RPSS, provided a good prediction for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with A/IF.展开更多
文摘Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a clinical risk model that is predictive of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients hos- pitalized with acute heart failure （AHF）. Methods 2486 patients who were 60 years and older from intensive care units of Cardiology De- partment in the hospital were analyzed. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were obtained by binary logistic regression and then used to establish the risk prediction score system （RPSS）. The area under the curve （AUC） of receiver operator characteristic and C-statistic test were adopted to assess the performance of RPSS and to compare with previous get with the guidelines-heart failure （GWTG-HF）. Re- sults By binary logistic regression analysis, heart rate （OR： 1.043, 95% CI： 1.030-1.057, P 〈 0.001）, left ventricular ejection fraction （OR： 0.918, 95% CI： 0.833~）.966, P 〈 0.001）, pH value （OR： 0.001, 95% CI： 0.000-0.002, P 〈 0.001）, renal dysfunction （OR： 0.120, 95% CI： 0.066M）.220, P 〈 0.001） and NT-pro BNP （OR： 3.463, 95% CI： 1.870-6.413, P 〈 0.001） were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortal- ity for elderly AHF patients. Additionally, RPSS, which was composed of all the above-mentioned parameters, provided a better risk predic- tion than GWTG-THF （AUC： 0.873 vs. 0.818, P = 0.016）. Conclusions Our risk prediction model, RPSS, provided a good prediction for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with A/IF.
