This paper empirically examines whether the productivity-based explanation for the time-varying US NAIRU is valid. We apply a novel filter known as the ld fused lasso. This procedure enables us to estimate the mean tr...This paper empirically examines whether the productivity-based explanation for the time-varying US NAIRU is valid. We apply a novel filter known as the ld fused lasso. This procedure enables us to estimate the mean trend of the labor productivity as a step function, without specifying the location and number of breaks a priori. This paper reports that although there exists an impressive similarity between the US NAIRU and the US labor productivity, changes in the US labor productivities do not necessarily lead to changes in the US NAIRU.展开更多
With the Chinese macro-economy undergoing an accelerating transformation, drastic changes in economic and industrial structures have caused constant readjustments to the employment structure and the unemployment rate ...With the Chinese macro-economy undergoing an accelerating transformation, drastic changes in economic and industrial structures have caused constant readjustments to the employment structure and the unemployment rate has kept rising. It is not clear how large a proportion of the steadily increasing unemployment rate is considered to be natural or normal unemployment. However, this indicator is very important, as quantifying the natural rate of unemployment will enable us to make a more in-depth analysis of the composition of the unemployment rate in China and the changes in its nature and will have important policy implications for the control of unemployment.1 At the same time, the natural rate of unemployment has a bearing on the cost and effect of monetary policy and forms the precondition and key to the implementation ofmonetary policy with a vital guiding significance for the control of inflation.展开更多
文摘This paper empirically examines whether the productivity-based explanation for the time-varying US NAIRU is valid. We apply a novel filter known as the ld fused lasso. This procedure enables us to estimate the mean trend of the labor productivity as a step function, without specifying the location and number of breaks a priori. This paper reports that although there exists an impressive similarity between the US NAIRU and the US labor productivity, changes in the US labor productivities do not necessarily lead to changes in the US NAIRU.
文摘With the Chinese macro-economy undergoing an accelerating transformation, drastic changes in economic and industrial structures have caused constant readjustments to the employment structure and the unemployment rate has kept rising. It is not clear how large a proportion of the steadily increasing unemployment rate is considered to be natural or normal unemployment. However, this indicator is very important, as quantifying the natural rate of unemployment will enable us to make a more in-depth analysis of the composition of the unemployment rate in China and the changes in its nature and will have important policy implications for the control of unemployment.1 At the same time, the natural rate of unemployment has a bearing on the cost and effect of monetary policy and forms the precondition and key to the implementation ofmonetary policy with a vital guiding significance for the control of inflation.
