Vulnerability and Conservation of Nearshore Cetaceans to Increasing Vessel Traffic:The Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphin in the South China Sea

A comprehensive risk assessment to evaluate the vulnerability of the nearshore cetaceans to increasing marine traffic is lacking.In this study,the risk to Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins(Sousa chinensis)in the main habitats in China was assessed based on a semiquantitative spatial vulnerability analysis.85%of the(sub)population which overlapped with the lanes of ferries and/or cargo vessels,with exposure scores of 1.23±0.31(calculated based on the proportion of sea routes that overlap the dolphin’s range).A combination of high exposure to the sea routes and sensitivity to marine traffic would render the(sub)populations to be highly vulnerable(EPRE:5.21 and XM:4.47).A low frequency of vessels and an awareness of the ecology assures a low vulnerability(SH:2.43,EZ:2.73).Uncertainty scores were commonly lower for the higher vulnerable populations,and higher for the lower vulnerable populations,suggesting additional field data and more monitoring are necessary.Six years of field data have been used to analyze the influences of various types of marine traffic on humpback dolphin behavior.Fishing and non-fishing vessels were significantly different(χ^(2)=65.19,p<0.01).The humpback dolphins were attracted by fishing vessels(83.1%)but avoided non-fishing vessels(95.2%).We recommend a management with seasonal and geographical constraints,to balance economic development and environmental conservation.

New Trends in Japan's“Indo-Pacific”Strategy

Introduced by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and inherited and developed by Fumio Kishida,Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy has gradually taken shape.This strategy can be deemed a broad vision,covering a wide range of topics and an extensive network of partners,with a strong trend of pan-securitization.It is a comprehensive inter national st rateg y based on Japan's alliance policy and China containment strategy,following a global,security-oriented approach.Driven by considerations such as maintaining its economic status,realizing its long-cherished dream of becoming a political powerhouse,and containing China,Japan has stepped up its“Indo–Pacific”strategy,which may influence global development,undermine regional maritime security,and impede China's reunification process.Meanwhile,Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy faces the triple challenge of a strategic overdraft,the unstable economic foundations,and the weak external support.These constraints may not suffice to reverse the direction of Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy in the short term but will limit its effectiveness.

Anthropogenic footprints are invading global habitats of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins

As ecologically fragile areas,coastal zones are affected by both anthropogenic activities and climate change.However,the impacts of these factors on large nearshore mammals,such as Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins(IPHDs,Sousa chinensis),are poorly understood.Here,modeling revealed that the suitable habitats of IPHDs are affected mainly by the sea surface temperature(SST),and the habitat suitability decreases as the distance to the nearest coastline increases.In addition,anthropogenic activities involving demersal fishing,contamination and shipping have narrowed IPHD habitats and reduced the habitat suitability.We found that climate change will further narrow suitable habitats located farther than 7 km from coastlines and trigger habitat losses in the eastern Taiwan Strait by 2090-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)8.5 scenario.The projected decreases in habitat suitability and area emphasize the urgency of establishing connected marine protected areas(MPAs)while considering climate change,intergovernmental cooperation,and public involvement.

Impacts of Early Pleistocene glacial vicariance among refugial lineages and Mid-Late Pleistocene interglacial dispersal and expansion on forging population genetic structure of the giant clam Tridacna squamosa(Bivalvia:Cardiidae:Tridacninae)across the Red Sea and Indo-West Pacific oceans

This study aims at identifying the microevolutionary processes responsible for the onset of the remarkable phylogeographic structure already recorded for the endangered giant clam Tridacna squamosa across its distribution range.For this purpose,the evolutionary,biogeographic and demographic histories of the species were comprehensively reconstructed in a mitochondrial dataset comprising nearly the whole available published cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene sequences of T.squamosa.Relatively higher level of genetic diversification was unveiled within T.squamosa,in comparison to earlier macro-geographic investigations,whereby five mitochondrial clusters were delineated.The resulting divergent gene pools in the Red Sea,western Indian Ocean,Indo-Malay Archipelago and western Pacific were found to be driven by Early Pleistocene glacial vicariance events among refugial lineages.Accentuated genetic diversification of the species across the Indo-Malay Archipelago was successively triggered by historical dispersal event during the Mid-Pleistocene MIS19c interglacial.This latter historical event might have also enabled genetically distinct giant clams from the Indo-Malay Archipelago to subsequently colonize the western Pacific,accounting for the genetic diversity hotspot detected within this region(comprising three divergent mitochondrial clusters).Late Pleistocene demographic expansion of T.squamosa,during the Last Interglacial period,could have contributed to forging spatial distribution of the so far delineated genetic entities across the Indo-Western Pacific.Overall,being resilient to major climate shifts during the Pleistocene through adaptation and consequent diversification,T.squamosa could be used as a model species to track the impact of climate change on genetic variability and structure of marine species.In particular,the new information,provided in this investigation,may help with understanding and/or predicting the consequences of ongoing global warming on genetic polymorphism of endangered coral reef species among which Tridacna sp.are listed as ecologically important.

Variation of Indo-Pacific upper ocean heat content during 2001–2012 revealed by Argo

Understanding of the temporal variation of oceanic heat content （OHC） is of fundamental importance to the prediction of climate change and associated global meteorological phenomena. However, OHC characteristics in the Pacific and Indian oceans are not well understood. Based on in situ ocean temperature and salinity profiles mainly from the Argo program, we estimated the upper layer （0-750 m） OHC in the Indo-Pacific Ocean （40°S-40°N, 30°E-80°W）. Spatial and temporal variability of OHC and its likely physical mechanisms are also analyzed. Climatic distributions of upper-layer OHC in the Indian and Pacific oceans have a similar saddle pattern in the subtropics, and the highest OHC value was in the northern Arabian Sea. However, OHC variabilities in the two oceans were different. OHC in the Pacific has an east-west see-saw pattern, which does not appear in the Indian Ocean. In the Indian Ocean, the largest change was around 10°S. The most interesting phenomenon is that, there was a long-term shift of OHC in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during 2001-2012. Such variation coincided with modulation of subsurface temperature/salinity. During 2001-2007, there was subsurface cooling （freshening） nearly the entire upper 400 m layer in the western Pacific and warming （salting） in the eastern Pacific. During 2008-2012, the thermocline deepened in the western Pacific but shoaled in the east. In the Indian Ocean, there was only cooling （upper 150 m only） and freshening （almost the entire upper 400 m） during 2001-2007. The thermocline deepened during 2008-2012 in the Indian Ocean. Such change appeared from the equator to off the equator and even to the subtropics （about 20°N/S） in the two oceans. This long-term change of subsurface temperature/salinity may have been caused by change of the wind field over the two oceans during 2001-2012, in turn modifying OHC.

Boreal Winter Rainfall Anomaly over the Tropical Indo-Pacific and Its Effect on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.

Japan-UK Security Cooperation in the Context of the Convergence of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Global Britain

Japan-UK security cooperation has been deepening as the Indo-Pacific Strategy has converged with Global Britain,which has become strongly Indo-Pacific-oriented.In terms of their cooperation on security,the two countries have close security interactions,high-level security consultations,numerous mechanisms on security cooperation,frequent defense cooperation and exchanges between forces,and cooperation geared at a response to the Korean nuclear issue.In particular,Japan and the UK regard Indo-Pacific security as the strategic focus of their cooperation,and this underscores the rules-based international order.There are multiple motivations for Japan and the UK to strengthen their security cooperation,and the deepening of their security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region is to a great extent due to strategic factors,including responding to the US strategic adjustment,Japan and Britain’s respective proactive strategic demands,the improving strategic positions of the Indopacific region,their seeking to shape the regional order in the Indo-Pacific,and so on.Despite facing challenges,Japan-UK security cooperation is continuously strengthening against a background of deepening strategic convergence between the two countries and great power competition.

India and the Indo-Pacific Strategy Vision： Orientation, Involvement and Limits

In 2017, the Trump administration formally articulated its vision for the Indo-Pacific strategy, replacing "Asia-Pacific" with"Indo-Pacific"in policy papers and taking measures to promote the realization of an "Indo-Pacific dream". This represents a significant adjustment in US regional policies. An important power in the Indian Ocean region, India is perceived as key to the successful implementation of this Indo-Pacific strategy. Generally speaking, the current Indian government and strategy circle actively support the upgrading of the"Indo-Pacific"concept from a geographical and academic term to a US vision for foreign strategies, anticipating that India could garner significant strategic benefits from it. Given this, New Delhi will continually adapt its foreign policies to the US Indo-Pacific strategy and may even direct the development of the strategy to counter the Belt and Road Initiative, work with other nations to balance China's influence and finally make the rise of India as a great power a reality. Nonetheless, the Indo-pacific strategy is in its early stages, and the content is not completely pro-India currently. On top of this India is still skeptical of the US and will proceed cautiously, leaving room for maneuver in the future,fully tapping into the benefits of the Indo-Pacific strategy and avoiding direct confrontation with China.

A HOMOGENEOUS MODEL OF UPPER LAYER CIRCULATION IN INDO-PACIFIC REGION

A homogeneous model is proposed to study the upper layer circulation in the Indo-Pacific region,the sources of the Indonesian throughflow (TF) and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and the relations of the the with the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the South Equatorial Current (SEC). The results revealed that the upper layer circulaton, as part of the Pacific Ocean general circulation, is mainly controlled by geostrophic balance; that the NECC’s volume transport is mainly sup plied by the NEC, and its variation has closer relation to the NEC than the SEC; that the TF, whose volume transport is jointly supplied by the NEC through the Mindanao Current (MC) and the SEC, with the NEC being the first source, has significant influence on the circulation structure; and that a large Celebes Sea cyclonic circulation not mentioned elsewhere so far, exists in the calculated results.

Upper Ocean Hydrology in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool During the Late Holocene,Early Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

We examined sediment samples from twenty-four stations in the Indo-Pacific warm pool(IPWP)region. Our objective is to provide a better understanding of changes in the IPWP and related tropical climatic phenomena such as East Asian-Australian monsoon and El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),through improving spatial coverage of proxy records.In order

India＇ s Advance East Strategy and Its Indo-Pacific Diplomacy

India's eastward advancement began in the early 1990s. It was then called the"Look East"policy, and was later upgraded in name to the"Act East"policy in 2014. Over the past 25 years, India's"Advance East"strategy has continued to expand, undergoing a compound evolution and upgrade from economy to security, from bilateral to multilateral, from the ASEAN region to East Asia and further onto the Asia-Pacific region,which has been reflected in the rise in India's national strength and regional influence, more and more become an important pillar in India's diplomatic strategy. Nonetheless, the traditional development trends of India's eastward advancement are being affected by the newly emerging Indo-Pacific diplomacy strategies and achievements. India's Indo-Pacific diplomacy was born out of its Advance East strategy, though not limited to advancement east; the core demand of India has always been to merge into the Asia-Pacific region. In other words, India's Advance East strategy is an important pivot for its Indo-Pacific diplomacy. The reliance of India's Indo-Pacific diplomacy on major power diplomacy has impacted the core position of ASEAN in its Advance East strategy, while the element of containing China in India's Indo-Pacific diplomacy will dilute its intention to cooperate with China. This is also manifested in its Advance East strategy.

The Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States from Russia’s Strategic Perspective

The Trump administration of the United States has accelerated the advancement of the‘‘open and free Indo-Pacific’,strategy since 2017.From a geopolitical point of view and in terms of its national interests,Russia has generally been critical of this strategy,believing it has posed certain challenges to its“Pivot to the East”strategy.Meanwhile,Russia is rejoicing for not being the primary target of US containment in the region and has sensed a new opportunity for exercising its Asia-Pacific diplomacy in the context of the Indo-Pacific strategy.Based on this situation,Russia has made a flexible and pragmatic policy response to it.However,Russia will inevitably face many restraints.In the future,Russia will seek to maximize its strategic interests on the basis of adhering to its inherent principles of Asia-Pacific diplomacy.

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity

The interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)intensity and its mechanism are investigated in this study.The interannual variability of the low-level circulation of the SCSSM has experienced a significant interdecadal enhancement around the end of the 1980s,which may be attributed to the interdecadal changes in the evolution of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies and their impacts on the SCSSM.From 1961 to 1989,the low-level circulation over the South China Sea is primarily affected by the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean via the mechanism of Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence.While in 1990 to 2020,the impacts of the summer SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent and the equatorial central to eastern Pacific on the SCSSM are enhanced,via anomalous meridional circulation and Mastuno-Gill type Rossby wave atmospheric response,respectively.The above interdecadal changes are closely associated with the interdecadal changes in the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The interdecadal variation of the summer SST anomalies in the developing and decaying phases of ENSO events enhances the influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific SST on the SCSSM,resulting in the interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the SCSSM.

Linkage of the Decadal Variability of Extreme Summer Heat in North China with the IPOD since 1981

Extreme summer heat can have serious socioeconomic impacts in North China.Here,we explore the decadal variability of the number of extreme heat days in early-to-mid summer(June and July)and a related potential mechanism consistent with the major seasonal occurrence period of extreme heat events in North China(NCSH).Observational analyses show significant decadal variability in NCSH for 1981–2021,potentially linked to the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Northwest Pacific Ocean dipole(IPOD)in early-to-mid summer.Dynamic diagnostic analysis and the linear baroclinic model(LBM)show that the positive IPOD in early-to-mid summer can excite upward vertical wind anomalies in the South China-East China Sea region,shifting the position of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)to the east or weakening the degree of its control of the South China-East China Sea region,thus generating a positive geopotential height quadrupole(EAWPQ)pattern in the East Asia-Northwest Pacific region.Subsequently,the EAWPQ can cause air compression(expansion)over North China by regulating the tropospheric thickness anomalies in North China,thus increasing(decreasing)NCSH.Finally,an empirical model that incorporates the linear trend can better simulate the decadal NCSH compared to an empirical model based solely on the IPOD index,suggesting that the decadal variability of NCSH may be a combined contribution of the decadal IPOD and external linear forcing.

巴基斯坦大国外交调整透视

Pakistan,China’s all-weather strategic cooperative partner,has recently undergone a significant adjustment in its major country diplomacy,particularly in its policies toward the United States and Russia.The triangular relationship among Pakistan,the United States,and Russia has changed from a previous severely unbalanced state,in which the Pakistan–United States relationship is stronger and the Pakistan–Russia relationship is weaker,to a relatively dynamic equilibrium state in which the Pakistan–United States relationship declines while the Pakistan–Russia relationship rises.At the same time,although Pakistan’s policy toward India and China has continued the central tone of Pakistan–India confrontation and Pakistan–China friendship,several new changes and trends have emerged.While Pakistan–India relations are generally tense,Pakistan has performed active management of crises to keep conflicts from getting out of control and leading to war or other combat.Pakistan has long actively maintained friendly relations with China and is focusing on promoting practical cooperation in the form of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.The current round of adjustment to Pakistan’s major country diplomacy stems from multiple internal and external factors.Externally,the United States has begun to promote its“Indo-Pacific”strategy,and the Ukraine crisis has played a catalytic role as well.Internally,these changes can mainly be ascribed to the major changes in Pakistan’s leadership,as well as the country’s severe domestic political and economic challenges,as well as the urgent need for external support,especially from major countries,to improve the domestic situation.Pakistan’s major country diplomacy adjustment has had relatively obvious geopolitical and security impacts so far at the global and regional levels,but it is limited by the international situation,its own strategic orientation,and national conditions.Pakistan’s relations with major countries continue to face structural challenges.

A Comparison of Polar Vortex Response to Pacific and Indian Ocean Warming

During recent decades, the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean has become increasingly warmer. Meanwhile, both the northern and southern hemispheric polar vortices （NPV and SPV） have exhibited a deepening trend in boreal winter. Although previous studies have revealed that the tropical Indian Ocean warming （IOW） favors an intensifying NPV and a weakening SPV, how the tropical Pacific Ocean warming （POW） influences the NPV and SPV remains unclear. In this study, a comparative analysis has been conducted through ensemble atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） experiments. The results show that, for the Northern Hemisphere, the two warmings exerted opposite impacts in boreal winter, in that the IOW intensified the NPV while the POW weakened the NPV. For the Southern Hemisphere, both the IOW and POW warmed the southern polar atmosphere and weakened the SPV. A diagnostic analysis based on the vorticity budget revealed that such an interhemispheric difference in influences from the IOW and POW in boreal winter was associated with different roles of transient eddy momentum flux convergence between the hemispheres. Furthermore, this difference may have been linked to different strengths of stationary wave activity between the hemispheres in boreal winter.

The Taxonomic Status of Japanese Threadfin Bream Nemipterus japonicus(Bloch, 1791)(Perciformes: Nemipteridae) with a Redescription of this Species from the South China Sea Based on Morphology and DNA Barcodes

Because of its importance as a food source, Nemipterus japonicus （Bloch, 1791） （Nemipteridae） or Japanese threadfin bream is the best studied of these taxa, and numerous investigations have examined its fisheries, its biology and biochemistry. De- spite such intensive work, the taxonomic status of N. japonicus has never been seriously questioned and it is regarded as a common species, widely distributed throughout the Indo-Westem Pacific Ocean. In fact, Bloch＇s description of the type specimen of N.ja- ponicus has ambiguous collection data and lacks a designation for the type locality, though it is probably Java. In this paper, DNA barcode results based on COl gene support the existence of two geographically separated lineages of the Japanese threadfin bream, both being an Indian Ocean and western Pacific lineage, with 2.7% sequence divergence, and the results indicate a possible existing of some cryptic species. The two lineages also possess a diagnostic difference in their belly color, with specimens in the South China Sea having a silver belly, while those from the Indian Ocean isolate specimen have a yellow coloration. Based upon new collections from the South China Sea, this species from the western Pacific is morphologically redescribed and its details of DNA barcode diver- sity are shown for the future investigations.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation （IPO）. Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends （global warming signals） from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter （DJF） equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature （SST） was colder during the 1999-2014 period （P2） than that during 1961-1976 （P 1）. This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-westem Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the ＂wet-get-wetter＂ mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P 1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern--central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

UK and FPDA in the Horizon of “Global Britain”

As a strategic pivot for defense partnerships,the Five Power Defense Arrangements(FPDA)has tremendous implications in the UK for facilitating the UK’s strategic extension from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific.By connecting the two regions,FPDA would allow"Global Britain"to combine with the US Indo-Pacific strategy.It can bolster UK intervention in Asia-Pacific security affairs,particularly the South China Sea issue,and contribute to defensive cooperation between the UK and its allies and partners.On the other hand,FPDA could contribute to closer UK-ASEAN ties.FPDA faces challenges in resource investment,"collective action"in the South China Sea,alliance constraints,and disparate maritime security environments between Indian and Pacific.As such,FPDA’s future depends on UK determination,investment and strategic operation.

Russia-India Relations:New Changes and Prospects

Among the major countries in the world,Russia and India are two that have always maintained relatively stable relations.However,recent years have witnessed profound transitions in the regional and global strategic environments,hence increasing divergence between their foreign policy strategies.Furthermore,the traditional drivers of cooperation between the two countries are weakening,such that their disagreements are accumulating in plain sight.Their perceptions and policies surrounding the Indo-Pacific,in particular,have created significant strategic discord.In the foreseeable future,the foundational basis for strategic cooperation between Russia and India will not be fundamentally shaken,but reversing the trend of their drifting foreign policies will prove to be difficult.The gap between the two sides will continue to exist and is likely to further enlarge.The trajectory of Russia-India relations will entail changes in the international and regional landscapes.Overall,a stable Russia-India relationship is in China’s best interest.