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境内和离岸人民币外汇市场价格传导和波动溢出效应 被引量:3
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作者 张涤新 眭以宁 丁乙 《审计与经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2017年第4期105-116,共12页
从不同经济发展阶段的视角,研究CNY、CNH和NDF市场间的价格传导机制,检验其均值溢出效应及风险溢出效应的存在性,发现并解释其异质特征,剖析CNH市场对CNY市场、NDF市场对CNH市场价格引导作用的微观机理,给出了实证证据。研究发现:这三... 从不同经济发展阶段的视角,研究CNY、CNH和NDF市场间的价格传导机制,检验其均值溢出效应及风险溢出效应的存在性,发现并解释其异质特征,剖析CNH市场对CNY市场、NDF市场对CNH市场价格引导作用的微观机理,给出了实证证据。研究发现:这三个市场的波动丛集现象显著且逐渐趋弱;随着时间推移,当下波动对未来市场波动的影响趋缓,但风险和损失对市场冲击的持续期变长。研究还表明:境内外人民币即期汇差存在自动收敛的机制,价格将趋向一致,尽管汇差的收敛速度和波动分别随时间推移加快和收窄,但收敛缓慢、波动较大且在一段时间内保持较高水平,预期和套利机制仍不能充分发挥市场信息传导功能。CNY市场缺乏对离岸CNH市场和NDF市场的价格引导作用,人民币汇率价格从离岸向境内市场传递,离岸市场对境内市场的价格发现功能随人民币市场化和国际化发展逐渐完善,但溢出效应存在滞后性且反馈周期较长。 展开更多
关键词 离岸外汇市场 CNY市场 ndf市场 CNH市场 国际金融市场 在岸人民币 离岸人民币 汇率波动
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Renminbi Derivatives: Recent Development and Issues 被引量:8
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作者 Wensheng Peng Chang Shu Raymond Yip 《China & World Economy》 SCIE 2007年第5期1-17,共17页
This study reviews the developments in markets. The onshore market has seen a the onshore and offshore renminbi derivatives rapid build-up in the market infrastructure and price discovery mechanism in the past year, ... This study reviews the developments in markets. The onshore market has seen a the onshore and offshore renminbi derivatives rapid build-up in the market infrastructure and price discovery mechanism in the past year, with empirical evidence suggesting that its pricing is increasingly determined by financial fundamentals, such as the covered interest rate parity. However, the growth of the market has been restrained by restrictions on the participant base, limited variations in the RMB/US$ exchange rate, market participants' lack of technical capacity and experience, and inadequate supporting financial market infrastructure. The non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, concentrated in Hong Kong and Singapore, is more developed, but has the drawback that its pricing is not tied to financial fundamentals. The comparison between onshore and offshore markets suggests that two issues are of particular importance for future derivatives market development in China: the balance between regulation and development, and the relationship between onshore and offshore markets. 展开更多
关键词 ndf onshore market renminbi derivatives
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