基于动态相关向量回归的燃煤锅炉烟气NO_x浓度预测模型

针对NO_x的生成过程的高度非线性、强相关性以及动态特征,提出一种基于互信息和动态相关向量回归的烟气NO_x浓度预测模型。依托某660 MW燃煤锅炉的历史运行数据,建立动态相关向量回归模型。通过和相关向量回归、人工神经网络、极限学习机模型以及动态支持向量回归模型对比分析,提出的NO_x浓度预测模型动态跟踪性能好,预测准确性高,为锅炉燃烧参数调整和SCR系统动态优化提供了基础。

Leaf hydraulics coordinated with leaf economics and leaf size in mangrove species along a salinity gradient

Independence among leaf economics,leaf hydraulics and leaf size confers plants great capability in adapting to heterogeneous environments.However,it remains unclear whether the independence of the leaf traits revealed across species still holds within species,especially under stressed conditions.Here,a suite of traits in these dimensions were measured in leaves and roots of a typical mangrove species,Ceriops tagal,which grows in habitats with a similar sunny and hot environment but different soil salinity in southern China.Compared with C.tagal under low soil salinity,C.tagal under high soil salinity had lower photosynthetic capacity,as indicated directly by a lower leaf nitrogen concentration and higher water use efficiency,and indirectly by a higher investment in defense function and thinner palisade tissue;had lower water transport capacity,as evidenced by thinner leaf minor veins and thinner root vessels;and also had much smaller single leaf area.Leaf economics,hydraulics and leaf size of the mangrove species appear to be coordinated as one trait dimension,which likely stemmed from covariation of soil water and nutrient availability along the salinity gradient.The intraspecific leaf trait relationship under a stressful environment is insightful for our understanding of plant adaption to the multifarious environments.

The Use and Abuse of Economics in Land Use Decision-Making in South Florida: An Industrial Park & Its Alternatives, 2020-2023

This paper reviews the economic methodology used to justify a proposed 357 hectare (800 acre) Industrial Park that would breach the Urban Development Boundary (UDB) in Miami-Dade County, Florida, a boundary that had been established to constrain urban sprawl and protect the surrounding wetlands and farmlands. We will examine the socio-economic setting of the region, the ownership of the farmland parcels designated to become industrial sites, and the misuse of the promoters’ narrow economic analysis. Then we shall explain and compute correctly the likely job creation based on the author’s own survey of recently constructed industrial plants similar to those proposed for this site. Rather than an industrial park, we offer instead a newly-designed multi-purpose Recreational–Ecological–Agricultural Park (REAP) & Nature Preserve which would maintain the integrity of the rural landscape, connect the densely-populated neighborhoods to the mangrove shoreline, and open nature’s treasure chest to urban Miami and the wider public.

Convergent relationships between flower economics and hydraulic traits across aquatic and terrestrial herbaceous plants

Maintaining open flowers is critical for successful pollination and depends on long-term water and carbon balance.Yet the relationship between how flower hydraulic traits are coordinated in different habitats is poorly understood.Here,we hypothesize that the coordination and trade-offs between floral hydraulics and economics traits are independent of environmental conditions.To test this hypothesis,we investigated a total of 27 flower economics and hydraulic traits in six aquatic and six terrestrial herbaceous species grown in a tropical botanical garden.We found that although there were a few significant differences,most flower hydraulics and economics traits did not differ significantly between aquatic and terrestrial herbaceous plants.Both flower mass per area and floral longevity were significantly positively correlated with the time required for drying full-hydrated flowers to 70%relative water content.Flower dry matter content was strongly and positively related to drought tolerance of the flowers as indicated by flower water potential at the turgor loss point.In addition,there was a trade-off between hydraulic efficiency and the construction cost of a flower across species.Our results show that flowers of aquatic and terrestrial plants follow the same economics spectrum pattern.These results suggest a convergent flower economics design across terrestrial and aquatic plants,providing new insights into the mechanisms by which floral organs adapt to aquatic and terrestrial habitats.

Abstract of Speech by Fred Engst,American Sinologist and Professor of School of International Economics and Trade of University of International Business and Economics

Mr.Fred Engst,American sinologist and Professor of School of International Economics and Trade of University of International Business and Economics,through the perspective of economic development,illustrated the reason for China’s rising and the high-quality growth of China’s economy and analysed the misunderstandings Western scholars currently hold about China.

科技—产业—金融循环的逻辑解构与政策启示

推动科技—产业—金融良性循环是实现高水平科技自立自强和高质量发展的核心命题。在梳理科技—产业—金融循环理论源流和研究文献基础上,基于创新经济学基本原理,对科技—产业—金融循环的内在逻辑进行研究。在理论逻辑层面,研究科技—产业—金融循环的基本范畴和核心要义。在历史逻辑层面,从国际实践中提炼促进科技—产业—金融良性循环的价值匹配与互动规律,总结科技—产业—金融循环关系的新变化。在现实逻辑层面,挖掘制约我国科技—产业—金融良性循环的主要堵点与原因。基于此,面向建设金融强国,从深化改革、制度设计、资源支持、平台建设、创新服务、全球生态等方面提出启示建议。

Problems and Strategies:A Case Study of Translation of the Introduction of Xianda College of Economics and Humanities,SISU

The present paper takes the English translation of the introduction of Xianda College of Economics and Humanities,SISU as an example to explore the translation problems of proper nouns and differences in English and Chinese language expressions in the construction of English introductions in Chinese institutions of higher education with the intention to propose corresponding solutions.It is hoped that this paper will provide some tips for the English translation of international publicity materials for other institutions of higher education.

Discussion on Collaborative Teaching of Econometrics in the Field of Environmental Economics

To capitalize on the synergies between the Econometrics course and the Environmental Economics major,this paper aims to enhance students’ability to conduct empirical analysis and practical application using econometric models.It also seeks to promote collaborative teaching through case studies and model research.The primary focus is on the hot research issues within the field of environmental economics,utilizing the econometric model as a vehicle for instruction.To achieve this,the paper proposes the development of a comprehensive case library specific to environmental economics.This resource will serve to optimize the case teaching approach,incorporating the use of econometric software,and fostering interactive teaching models between educators and students.By implementing these strategies,the paper outlines a path and mode for collaborative teaching that effectively bridges the gap between econometrics and environmental economics.

Analysis of Enterprise Cost Management from the Perspective of Management Economics

In view of economic globalization,China’s economy has entered a stage of normalized development.In the post pandemic era,the costs of raw materials,production,sales,and labor in Chinese enterprises continue to increase,leading to severe competitive pressure among the enterprises.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to actively apply the relevant theories of management economics to guide the cost management of Chinese enterprises,improve their economic benefits,and promote healthy and sustainable development.Currently,there are still many problems in terms of cost management in Chinese enterprises.Therefore,it is crucial to address these problems and further improve the effectiveness of cost management.This paper presents an overview of cost management and an analysis of the specific problems and provide corresponding countermeasures,in hopes of to providing a reference for cost management in enterprises and achieve the goal of stable and sustainable development of China’s economy.

数字经济发展与区域经济收敛——基于动态空间面板模型的实证研究

数字经济发展对于扎实推进共同富裕具有重要意义。基于经济增长条件收敛模型,采用动态空间杜宾模型实证考察数字经济发展对区域经济增长收敛的影响。研究发现:考察期内全国经济增长具有显著的条件收敛特征,数字经济发展显著促进了区域经济收敛;东中西部地区和南北地区均存在明显的俱乐部收敛现象,仅东部地区和南方地区数字经济发展能够显著缩小地区经济差距;东部地区数字经济发展对本地区及邻近地区的经济增长均具有显著的正向累积效应,西部地区数字经济发展的空间溢出效应为负。为此,提出以下政策建议:一是充分把握数字经济发展机遇,二是巩固数字经济的区域经济收敛效应,三是推行差异化的数字经济政策,四是推动数字经济均衡发展。

新发展阶段中国经济发展的韧性:评价、影响因素及其维护策略

经济发展韧性是长期发展视角下经济体适应变革、持续演进和稳定发展的素质和潜力的综合体现。基于对经济发展韧性内涵的理论阐释,从基础韧性、规模韧性、结构韧性、创新韧性和制度韧性5个方面确立经济发展韧性评价维度,测算2000—2021年的中国经济发展韧性指数及各分项维度指数,并进一步分析中国经济发展韧性的空间差异。研究结果表明,中国经济发展韧性在时间维度上呈现出稳步提升的演化趋势,在空间维度上不同地区间和各个地区内的经济发展韧性差异呈现出先扩大后缩小的基本特征。结合中国经济发展韧性的影响因素和演化趋势,提出新发展阶段中国经济发展韧性的维护策略。

高质量区域空间格局构建下中国经济区划调整研究

经济区划调整对于塑造面向高质量发展的区域空间格局具有重要意义。本文梳理了1949年以来中国经济区域划分方案,分析了改革开放以来,东部、中部、西部和东北地区四大经济区的划分逻辑与影响。以规模经济、专业化分工以及知识要素为主导所形成的新空间集聚等第二性地理因素逐渐替代资源禀赋等第一性地理因素,成为区域经济增长的主要动力。当前,中国区域协调发展面临着“三北”经济增长乏力、区域差异扩大及区域经济增长差距由东西分化转变为南北分化等挑战。随着中心城市和城市群成为承载发展要素的主要空间形式,中国经济发展模式从外向型经济为主转变为内向型经济与外向型经济协调发展,经济空间格局也需进行相应调整。本文提出划分五大经济区域的新方案,将原来的四大经济区调整为东南、西南、东北、华北、西北五大经济区,从而强化经济区内部联系,更好地发挥区域中心城市的辐射带动作用,顺应构建高质量区域空间格局的需求。

“双碳”目标有利于促进经济高质量发展吗?

碳达峰与碳中和是我国当前环境治理的关键目标,实现碳减排也成为了我国经济高质量发展的重要内容,那么,“双碳”目标有利于促进经济高质量发展吗?基于“双碳”目标下的环境政策,采用长江经济带市级面板数据实证检验“双碳”目标对经济高质量发展的影响效应,结果发现:(1)“双碳”目标对长江经济带经济增长质量具有正向作用,表明“双碳”目标能有效促进经济增长质量提升,并且该结论通过了平行趋势、考虑内生性和其他政策冲击等多维度稳健性检验;(2)异质性分析结果表明,“双碳”目标对长江中下游地区、中小型城市、非省会和非工业型城市的经济增长质量提升效应更显著,并且该影响存在空间外溢效应;(3)进一步分析表明,环境治理、效率提升、技术创新和产业升级等因素是“双碳”目标影响经济高质量发展的重要传导机制。相关研究成果为“双碳”目标下我国经济高质量发展提供了经验证据,也为环境政策的进一步实施提供了相关政策建议。

“一带一路”沿线境外经贸合作区对东道国经济增长的影响及机制研究

境外经贸合作区是共建“一带一路”倡议的重要承接点,也是推动我国企业高质量“走出去”的重要平台,如何评估合作区建设对考察我国“一带一路”倡议成效与境外经贸合作区的实践效果具有重要参考价值。基于60个“一带一路”沿线国家的样本数据,通过渐进性双重差分法,可对境外经贸合作区对东道国经济增长的影响和内在机制进行实证分析,并对东道国经济特征和合作区类型进行异质性分析。研究结果表明:第一,境外经贸合作区的建立可以显著促进东道国的经济增长。其中,外商投资流入和贸易规模发挥了部分中介作用。第二,境外经贸合作区在促进东道国的经济增长方面具有异质性,对收入水平较低、营商制度较差的国家具有更强的经济助推作用。

高等教育集群化发展与经济韧性:机制、途径及贡献

随着全球进入新的动荡期,经济韧性发展愈发重要。基于2008—2020年31省面板数据,从高等教育质量集聚和规模集聚角度出发,研究评价了我国高等教育集群化发展情况。在此基础上,实证研究了高等教育集群化水平对经济韧性改善的影响。研究发现,高等教育集群化与经济韧性显著正相关;东、中、西部三大地区高等教育集群化发展对经济韧性的影响存在明显差异;高等教育集群通过人才效应、创新效应和产业效应等途径影响经济韧性发展,其中,人才效应贡献最大。研究有助于厘清高等教育集群对经济韧性影响的机制和途径,因地制宜地实施高等教育集群化发展政策,充分发挥高等教育集群在人才、科技和产业等方面的经济韧性提升效应。

人口结构变化、老龄化趋势及延迟退休对经济增长的影响

检验人口结构对经济增长的影响,预测人口总量及其结构的走势和老龄化的未来趋势,分析人口总量及其结构,尤其是老龄化趋势对经济增长的影响。研究发现:第一,劳动力数量和劳动力占比增加、人口抚养比下降会促进经济增长,在对经济增长的回归中人口结构的解释力不及劳动力数量,但在预测未来时人口结构变化的影响力更大。第二,总人口会在低方案情况下已步入下降通道,如果总和生育率不快速提升的话,中国的老龄化程度在近50年将持续加深。第三,延迟退休可以减少老龄化对经济增长的负面冲击;提高生育率可以减缓老龄化程度,但在短期会抑制经济增长。延迟退休方案增加劳动人口越多,越能促进经济增长,延迟退休实施的力度越大,法定退休年龄越大,对老龄化的缓冲程度越大。如果男女每年延迟退休递增1年,分别最终延迟到70岁和65岁,在一些年份甚至可以完全抵消老龄化的抑制作用。

矿产勘查市场周期性波动与我国矿产勘查趋势分析

在社会经济发展的驱动下,矿产勘查市场具有明显的周期性波动,包括长周期变化、中短周期变化和随机性变化。澳大利亚50年矿产勘查市场变化表明,经济发展的长周期变化决定了矿产资源供需关系基本面,矿产资源供需关系基本面决定了矿产勘查投入的长周期变化;经济发展中短周期变化决定了矿产品价格周期性变化,矿产品价格周期性变化决定了矿产勘查投入的中短周期变化。在国家新一轮找矿突破战略行动驱动下,我国矿产勘查活动进入新一轮增长周期,并呈现出与全球不同的变化特征。2020年以来,我国矿产勘查投入连续4年实现增长,且增速逐年扩大,2023年同比增长25.4%,矿产勘查市场内生回升动力不断增强。2016年之后,主要受国内政策环境的影响,我国矿产勘查投入变化偏离了全球勘查市场走势。综合判断,我国矿产勘查市场正处在长中短周期叠加、政策环境发生明显改善的特殊阶段。经济发展长周期变化和中短周期变化对矿产勘查投入形成较大的下行压力,而政策环境改善对市场形成了较强的上行拉力,未来2~3 a将是政策红利集中释放的时间,本轮矿产勘查增长周期可能将延续2~3 a时间。

数字经济刑法客体的理论构造:安全与发展

全面发展数字经济的既定重大方针,已触发中国式数字经济刑法的萌芽与生长,也开启了传统经济刑法的数字转型。围绕传统经济刑法客体的讨论、分歧与共识,既凸显客体及内容的重要地位,也显示出理论研究的复杂性。尽管可以吸取上述讨论中的“先见”,但更应扎根数字经济,经由数字经济刑法的前提设定新的犯罪客体及其内容。现阶段,侧重围绕数据犯罪的客体论争虽具有一定的现实合理性,却也一定程度上遮蔽了数字经济刑法客体的特定性、整体性与周全性。全面兼顾安全与发展是数字经济的终极追求与价值根基,也应当是数字经济刑法的基本理念与一般规律。围绕数字经济的应用场景,结合数字经济刑法的内外生态,可将安全与发展的保护内容予以具体化、类型化。

以经济高质量发展推进中国式现代化的理论逻辑和实践路径

高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务,也是中国式现代化本质要求,经济高质量发展是高质量发展的核心内容。经济高质量发展,就是以高质量的产品和服务满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要,是贯彻新发展理念不断提升生产要素利用效率和配置效率,达到生产、流通、分配、消费循环通畅的经济持续稳定的发展。经济高质量发展关系到推进中国式现代化的全局。以经济高质量发展推进中国式现代化,必须以习近平经济思想为根本遵循,以加强党的全面领导推进经济治理现代化,以坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度推进共同富裕,以科学技术创新保持经济效率和速度,以加快构建新发展格局促进内外联动,以人口高质量发展推动经济高质量发展。

中国迈入全面建设世界经济强国新征程

党中央提出,到2035年,中国特色社会主义现代化建设任务和发展的总体目标是,经济实力、科技实力、综合国力大幅跃升,达到中等发达国家水平。中华人民共和国成立70多年,创建了自主独立完整的工业和国民经济体系。改革开放40多年,中国取得了令世界瞩目的巨大的经济和科技成就,已经成为重要的创新型国家。新时代,中国确立了支撑有力的强国方略,加速从传统工业化向新型工业化转变,正在朝着创新强国的方向跨越,迈入全面建设社会主义现代化强国新征程。中国不仅创造了当代世界经济史上的奇迹,成为世界经济增长的动力之源与稳定器,而且也成为世界首屈一指的经济大国、制造大国、农业生产大国、创新大国、对外贸易大国、现代化基础设施大国、市场主体创业大国;中国经济实力、产业实力、科技实力、贸易实力、基础设施实力以及综合国力日益跃升壮大。为此,中国全面建设社会主义经济现代化强国是建设社会主义强国的经济基础与重中之重,要继续提高经济实力、充分发挥作为世界最大规模、最具竞争力市场主体的积极性和创造性,全面建成世界经济强国。