In order to improve the effectiveness of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation (FSE) models, a Parameter Correlation Analysis (PCA) was introduced into the FSE and a case study was carried out in the Naoli River in the Sanjiang ...In order to improve the effectiveness of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation (FSE) models, a Parameter Correlation Analysis (PCA) was introduced into the FSE and a case study was carried out in the Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. The basic principle of the PCA is that the pairs of parameters which are highly correlated and linear with each other would contribute the same information to an assessment and one of them should be eliminated. The method of the PCA is that a correlation relationship among candidate parameters is examined before the FSE. If there is an apparent nonlinear or curvilinear relationship between two parameters, then both will be retained; if the correlation is significant (p<0.01), and the scatter plot suggests a linear relationship, then one of them will be deleted. However, which one will be deleted? For solving this problem, a sensitivity test was conducted and the higher sensitivity parameters remained. The results indicate that the original data should be preprocessed through the PCA for redundancy and variability. The study shows that introducing the PCA into the FSE can simplify the FSE calculation process greatly, while the results have not been changed much.展开更多
Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 ...Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.展开更多
As an important indicator of the structural and functional stability of wetland landscapes,hydrological connectivity plays an important role in maintaining the stability of wetland ecosystems.Large-scale human activit...As an important indicator of the structural and functional stability of wetland landscapes,hydrological connectivity plays an important role in maintaining the stability of wetland ecosystems.Large-scale human activities have led to significant changes in the hydrological connectivity pattern of wetlands in Naoli River Basin since 1950 s.Combined with the availability of wetland habitat and the spreading capacity of aquatic birds,hydrological connectivity indices of marsh wetlands were calculated in the studied area,and the temporal and spatial changes were analyzed from 1950 s to 2015.The results indicate that:(1)the hydrological connectivity index of the marsh wetlands shows a growth trend with increasing distance threshold.All patches of marsh wetlands linked together when the distance threshold reached 35--40 km;(2)the optimal distance of hydrological connectivity is about 10 km for marsh wetlands of whole Naoli River Basin;(3)the total hydrological connectivity of marsh wetlands decreased in the Naoli River Basin from 1950 s to 2015.Although the hydrological connectivity index increased after 2005,the fragmentation of the landscape has not been improved.The analysis of the wetland hydrological connectivity can provide a scientific basis for the ecological restoration and protection of the wetland in the Naoli River Basin.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40830535)Knowledge Innovation Pro-gram of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KSCX2-YW-N-46-06)
文摘In order to improve the effectiveness of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation (FSE) models, a Parameter Correlation Analysis (PCA) was introduced into the FSE and a case study was carried out in the Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. The basic principle of the PCA is that the pairs of parameters which are highly correlated and linear with each other would contribute the same information to an assessment and one of them should be eliminated. The method of the PCA is that a correlation relationship among candidate parameters is examined before the FSE. If there is an apparent nonlinear or curvilinear relationship between two parameters, then both will be retained; if the correlation is significant (p<0.01), and the scatter plot suggests a linear relationship, then one of them will be deleted. However, which one will be deleted? For solving this problem, a sensitivity test was conducted and the higher sensitivity parameters remained. The results indicate that the original data should be preprocessed through the PCA for redundancy and variability. The study shows that introducing the PCA into the FSE can simplify the FSE calculation process greatly, while the results have not been changed much.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40830535, 41001110, 41101092, 41171092)National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB951304)the CAS/SAFEA (Chinese Academy of Sciences/State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs) International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams, Eleventh Five-Year' Key Technological Projects of Heilongjiang Province Farm Bureau (No. HNK10A-10-01, HNK10A-10-03)
文摘Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.
基金Supported by projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41771103)National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2016YFC0500204)。
文摘As an important indicator of the structural and functional stability of wetland landscapes,hydrological connectivity plays an important role in maintaining the stability of wetland ecosystems.Large-scale human activities have led to significant changes in the hydrological connectivity pattern of wetlands in Naoli River Basin since 1950 s.Combined with the availability of wetland habitat and the spreading capacity of aquatic birds,hydrological connectivity indices of marsh wetlands were calculated in the studied area,and the temporal and spatial changes were analyzed from 1950 s to 2015.The results indicate that:(1)the hydrological connectivity index of the marsh wetlands shows a growth trend with increasing distance threshold.All patches of marsh wetlands linked together when the distance threshold reached 35--40 km;(2)the optimal distance of hydrological connectivity is about 10 km for marsh wetlands of whole Naoli River Basin;(3)the total hydrological connectivity of marsh wetlands decreased in the Naoli River Basin from 1950 s to 2015.Although the hydrological connectivity index increased after 2005,the fragmentation of the landscape has not been improved.The analysis of the wetland hydrological connectivity can provide a scientific basis for the ecological restoration and protection of the wetland in the Naoli River Basin.
