基于多米诺效应的南京化工园区洪水Natech风险研究

以南京化工园区为对象,在“浸没型”洪水背景下,开展了基于多米诺效应的洪水Natech风险评估,结果表明,在“浸没型”洪水背景下,园区内甲醇储罐泄漏的概率最大,为3.89×10^(-3)。以甲醇储罐T51和T52为对象,评估了甲醇泄漏引发的水污染和蒸气云爆炸风险,结果表明:在甲醇泄漏速率为0.62 kg/s、甲醇质量浓度边界为0.20 kg/m^(3)的条件下,泄漏1.00 h后甲醇最远可扩散至下游383.51 m处;以10%(φ)的泄漏甲醇参与蒸气云爆炸进行计算,距离储罐周边140.02 m范围内的人群将100%致死。考虑多米诺效应,当储罐T51和T52发生蒸气云爆炸时,周边T31~T50、T53和T54储罐所接收到的爆炸超压均超过失效阈值(0.03 MPa),进一步造成污染物泄漏和蒸气云爆炸事故;污染物泄漏1.00 h后,将扩散至下游约400 m处;蒸气云爆炸事故100%致死范围将扩大至377.78 m。

Households' Risk Perception and Behavioral Responses to Natech Accidents

This study analyzes data on households' risk perception and protective behavior following a natural disaster triggered technological accident(Natech accident)that occurred at an industrial park in Sendai during the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, on 11 March2011. The results indicate that some households carried out multiple evacuations and that households' risk perceptions changed throughout the Natech accident evacuation process. Risk perception differed according to household location and demographic characteristics. We also found differences in the protective measures adopted for households in different locations. Specifically, those living closer to the Natech accident tended to evacuate immediately,whereas those living further away tended to shelter in place. Wind direction is discussed as a factor that influences households' risk perception and evacuation response to a Natech accident. The findings of this study advance knowledge of household behavior in response to a Natech accident and can assist emergency managers in developing strategies for better management of evacuation processes.