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Estimating Monthly Surface Air Temperature Using MODIS LST Data and an Artificial Neural Network in the Loess Plateau, China
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作者 HE Tian LIU Fuyuan +1 位作者 WANG Ao FEI Zhanbo 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第4期751-763,共13页
Air temperature(Ta)datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed in a wide range of applications,such as hydrology,ecology,agriculture,and climate change studies.Nonetheless,the density of weather sta... Air temperature(Ta)datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed in a wide range of applications,such as hydrology,ecology,agriculture,and climate change studies.Nonetheless,the density of weather station networks is insufficient,especially in sparsely populated regions,greatly limiting the accuracy of estimates of spatially distributed Ta.Due to their continuous spatial coverage,remotely sensed land surface temperature(LST)data provide the possibility of exploring spatial estimates of Ta.However,because of the complex interaction of land and climate,retrieval of Ta from the LST is still far from straightforward.The estimation accuracy varies greatly depending on the model,particularly for maximum Ta.This study estimated monthly average daily minimum temperature(Tmin),average daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and average daily mean temperature(Tmean)over the Loess Plateau in China based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)LST data(MYD11A2)and some auxiliary data using an artificial neural network(ANN)model.The data from 2003 to 2010 were used to train the ANN models,while 2011 to 2012 weather station temperatures were used to test the trained model.The results showed that the nighttime LST and mean LST provide good estimates of Tmin and Tmean,with root mean square errors(RMSEs)of 1.04℃ and 1.01℃,respectively.Moreover,the best RMSE of Tmax estimation was 1.27℃.Compared with the other two published Ta gridded datasets,the produced 1 km×1 km dataset accurately captured both the temporal and spatial patterns of Ta.The RMSE of Tmin estimation was more sensitive to elevation,while that of Tmax was more sensitive to month.Except for land cover type as the input variable,which reduced the RMSE by approximately 0.01℃,the other vegetation-related variables did not improve the performance of the model.The results of this study indicated that ANN,a type of machine learning method,is effective for long-term and large-scale Ta estimation. 展开更多
关键词 air temperature land surface temperature(LST) artificial neural network(ANN) remote sensing climate change Loess Plateau china
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Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3 被引量:15
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作者 GUO Yan DONG Wen-Jie +2 位作者 REN Fu-Min ZHAO Zong-Ci HUANG Jian-Bin 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE 2013年第3期145-152,共8页
Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMI... Historical simulations of annual mean surface air temperature over China with 25 CMIP5 models were assessed.The observational data from CRUT3v and CN05 were used and further compared with historical simulations of CMIP3.The results show that CMIP5 models were able to simulate the observed warming over China from 1906 to 2005(0.84 C per 100 years)with a warming rate of 0.77 C per 100 years based on the multi-model ensemble(MME).The simulations of surface air temperature in the late 20th century were much better than those in the early 20th century,when only two models could reproduce the extreme warming in the 1940s.The simulations for the spatial distribution of the 20-yearmean(1986–2005)surface air temperature over China fit relatively well with the observations.However,underestimations in surface air temperature climatology were still found almost all over China,and the largest cold bias and simulation uncertainty were found in western China.On sub-regional scale,northern China experienced stronger warming than southern China during 1961–1999,for which the CMIP5 MME provided better simulations.With CMIP5 the diference of warming trends in northern and southern China was underestimated.In general,the CMIP5 simulations are obviously improved in comparison with the CMIP3 simulations in terms of the variation in regional mean surface air temperature,the spatial distribution of surface air temperature climatology and the linear trends in surface air temperature all over China. 展开更多
关键词 CMIP5 CMIP3 china ANNUAL mean SURFACE air temperature HISTORICAL simulation ASSESSMENT
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Temporal and spatial variation of annual mean air temperature in arid and semiarid region in northwest China over a recent 46 year period 被引量:24
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作者 Chen, ShaoYong Shi, YuanYuan +1 位作者 Guo, YuZhen Zheng, YanXiang 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE 2010年第2期87-97,共11页
We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used metho... We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,Empirical Or-thogonal Function(EOF),Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF),Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis.The results show that(1) the warming rate of the annual mean air temperature in CNASA was 0.35oC/10a during the 1961-2006 study period.Some places in the west part of Xinjiang and east part of the Qinghai plateau,which is impacted by the terrain of leeward slope,exhibit smaller increasing trends.However,the majority of region has shown distinct warming in line with general global warming;(2) The standard deviation of the annual mean temperature distribution is non-uniform.The south Xinjiang and east Qinghai-south Gansu areas show relatively small standard deviations,but the inter-annual variation in annual mean air temperature in the greater part of the region is high;(3) Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes are most sensitive to the environment.The degree of uniformity in annual mean air temperature increase is higher in the arid and semi-arid area.From the early 1970s,the trend in tempera-ture changed from a decrease to an increase,and there was a marked increase in mean temperature in 1986.After that mean temperature went through a period of rapid increase.The entire area’s 10 hottest years all occurred in or since the 1990s,and 90% of various sub-districts’ hottest years also occurred after 1990.The process of temperature change appears to have a roughly 5-year and a 10-year cycle;(4) An-nual mean air temperature variation has regional differences.In Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai areas,the temperature variation in their northern areas was very different from that in their southern areas;(5) Using the REOF method we divided the region into 4 sub-regions:the Northern region,the Plateau region,the Southern Xinjiang region and the Eastern region.The region’s annual mean air temperature transition has regional differences.The Plateau and Southern Xinjiang re-gions got warmer steadily without any obvious acceleration in the rate of warming.The Northern region’s warming started about 5-years earlier than that of the low latitude Eastern region.The ’Startup region’ of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,appears to undergo temperature changes 3 to 10 years earlier than the other regions,and exhibits inter-decadal variations 1 to 2 years ahead of the other regions. 展开更多
关键词 northwest area of china annual mean air temperature climatic warming
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Predicting Winter Surface Air Temperature in Northeast China 被引量:22
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作者 Fan Ke 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2009年第1期14-17,共4页
The author investigates the prediction of Northeast China's winter surface air temperature (SAT),and first forecast the year to year increment in the predic-tand and then predict the predictand.Thus,in the first s... The author investigates the prediction of Northeast China's winter surface air temperature (SAT),and first forecast the year to year increment in the predic-tand and then predict the predictand.Thus,in the first step,we determined the predictors for an increment in winter SAT by analyzing the atmospheric variability associated with an increment in winter SAT.Then,multi-linear re-gression was applied to establish a prediction model for an increment in winter SAT in Northeast China.The pre-diction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.73) between the simulated and observed annual increments in winter SAT in Northeast China throughout the period 1965-2002,with a relative root mean square error of -7.9%.The prediction model makes a reasonable hindcast for 2003-08,with an average relative root mean square error of -7.2%.The prediction model can capture the in-creasing trend of winter SAT in Northeast China from 1965-2008.The results suggest that this approach to forecasting an annual increment in winter SAT in North-east China would be relevant in operational seasonal forecasts. 展开更多
关键词 year to year increment winter surface air temperature Northeast china
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Evaluation of Surface Air Temperature Change over China and the Globe during the Twentieth Century in IAP AGCM4.0 被引量:12
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作者 DONG Xiao XUE Feng +1 位作者 ZHANG He ZENG Qing-Cun 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2012年第5期435-438,共4页
Based on time series and linear trend analysis, the authors evaluated the performance of the fourth gen- eration atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy... Based on time series and linear trend analysis, the authors evaluated the performance of the fourth gen- eration atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP AGCM4.0), in simulating surface air temperature (SAT) during the twentieth century over China and the globe. The numerical experiment is con- ducted by driving the model with the observed sea surface temperature and sea ice. It is shown that IAP AGCM4.0 can simulate the warming trend of the global SAT, with the major wanning regions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the South- ern Hemisphere. While the simulated trend over the whole globe is close to the observation, the model trader- estimates the observed trend over the continents. More- over, the model simulates the spatial distribution of SAT in China, with a bias of approximately -2℃ in eastern China, but with a more serious bias in western China. Compared with the global mean, however, the correlation coefficient between the simulation and observation in China is significantly lower, indicating that there is large uncertainty in simulating regional climate change. 展开更多
关键词 IAP AGCM4.0 surface air temperature thetwentieth century globe china
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Drought Response to Air Temperature Change over China on the Centennial Scale 被引量:3
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作者 CHEN Huo-Po SUN Jian-Qi 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2015年第3期113-119,共7页
Climate data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1901-2013 are used to investigate the drought response to air temperature change over China on the centennial scale. Drought is observed to have incr... Climate data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1901-2013 are used to investigate the drought response to air temperature change over China on the centennial scale. Drought is observed to have increased evidently across China, except for some regions in eastern China. This increase is much stronger in northern China compared to southern China, especially in Northwest and North China. These change characteris- tics of drought are closely associated with air temperature change, with the severe droughts in the major drought episodes of the last century generally coinciding with higher temperatures. The significantly increasing trend of drought in China based on observations only appears when considering the effects of air temperature change, which can explain -49% of droughts in observations and 30%-65% of droughts in Coupled Model Intereomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. Furthermore, the response of drought to air temperature change generally increases as the drought time scale increases. Furthermore, drought shows relatively high sensitivity in spring and early summer in China on the centennial scale. 展开更多
关键词 DROUGHT air temperature RESPONSE centennial scale china
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Synoptic-scale potential vorticity intrusion over northeastern China during winter and its influence on surface air temperature 被引量:2
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作者 ZHU Tingting MAO Jiangyu 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2019年第4期286-293,共8页
A regional potential vorticity(PV)intrusion(PVI)(RPVI)index,defined as the sum of the numbers of grids containing PVI within a certain area for each day,is used to reflect the day-to-day PVI variability over northeast... A regional potential vorticity(PV)intrusion(PVI)(RPVI)index,defined as the sum of the numbers of grids containing PVI within a certain area for each day,is used to reflect the day-to-day PVI variability over northeastern China during winter from 1979 to 2016.The synoptic-scale PVI variations and resultant surface air temperature(SAT)anomalies are identified by comparing the high and low RPVI index cases.In high(low)RPVI cases,significantly strong positive(negative)PV anomalies are found in the stratospheric midlatitudes,which intrude downward mostly within 90°–110°E into the upper troposphere to reach around 300 hPa and extend eastward to the east of 120°E,forcing an anomalous cyclonic(anticyclonic)circulation in the middle and lower troposphere over East Asia,with the anomalous northerlies(southerlies)of the forced lower-tropospheric cyclone(anticyclone)leading to significant negative(positive)SAT anomalies of less(greater)than-0.9°C(0.9°C),especially over northeastern China.In the stratosphere,the positive(negative)midlatitude PV anomalies over northern China are actually associated with a weakening(strengthening)of the polar vortex over the Eurasian continent for the high(low)RPVI cases,resulting mostly from positive(negative)barotropic vorticity anomalies associated with static stability due to the meridional shear of anomalous zonal winds on the southern side of the anomalous Eurasian anticyclone(cyclone). 展开更多
关键词 Potential vorticity intrusion northeastern china polar vortex surface air temperature
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Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5 被引量:1
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作者 Chaofan LI Riyu LU +2 位作者 Philip E. BETT Adam A. SCAIFE Nicola MARTIN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第8期59-68,共10页
Variations of surface air temperature (SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT ... Variations of surface air temperature (SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle, ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer. This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT in western China, using the GloSea5 operational forecast system from the UK Met Office. Useful predictions are demonstrated, with considerable skill over most regions of western China. The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations axe larger than 0.6, in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau. There are two important sources of skill for these predictions in western China: interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SST change in the recent two decades, with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific, which is reproduced well by the forecast system, provides a large contribution to the skill of SAT in northwestern China. Additionally, the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau. It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation. This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions, and acts as a source of skill in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau. The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits. 展开更多
关键词 seasonal forecast western china surface air temperature PREDICTABILITY warming trend
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Impact of Autumn SST in the Japan Sea on Winter Rainfall and Air Temperature in Northeast China 被引量:1
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作者 SHI Xiaomeng SUN Jilin +2 位作者 WU Dexing YI Li WEI Dongni 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS 2015年第4期604-611,共8页
We studied the impact of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the Japan Sea and the sea area east of Japan on the winter rainfall and air temperature in Northeast(NE) China using the singular value decomposition(S... We studied the impact of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the Japan Sea and the sea area east of Japan on the winter rainfall and air temperature in Northeast(NE) China using the singular value decomposition(SVD) and empirical orthogonal function(EOF). The monthly-mean rainfall data observed at 160 stations in China, monthly-mean sea surface temperature(SST) of the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and monthly-mean air temperature from the NCEP reanalysis during 1960–2011 were used. Correlation analysis indicates that the SSTAs in the Japan Sea in September may last for three or four months and are an important index for forecasting the winter rainfall and air temperature in NE China. Positive SSTAs in the central Japan Sea and in the sea area east of Tokyo correspond to positive rainfall anomaly and negative air temperature anomaly in NE China. With the rise of SST in the Japan Sea, a weak cyclone appears over the Japan Sea. The northeasterly wind transports water vapor from the Okhotsk to NE China, resulting in more rainfall and lower air temperature. Negative SSTA years are accompanied by warmer air temperature and less snow in NE China. The 1000 h Pa geopotential height anomaly and wind anomaly fields are simulated by IAP-9L model, which supports the analysis results. 展开更多
关键词 Japan Sea SSTA Northeast china RAINFALL air temperature
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The efficacy of Kriging spatial interpolation for filling temporal gaps in daily air temperature data: A case study in northeast China 被引量:1
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作者 YanLin Zhang XiaoLi Chang +2 位作者 Ji Liang DongLiang Luo RuiXia He 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2016年第5期441-449,共9页
Quality-controlled and serially complete daily air temperature data are essential to evaluating and modelling the influences of climate change on the permafrost in cold regions. Due to malfunctions and location chang... Quality-controlled and serially complete daily air temperature data are essential to evaluating and modelling the influences of climate change on the permafrost in cold regions. Due to malfunctions and location changes of observing stations, temporal gaps (i.e., missing data) are common in collected datasets. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of Kriging spatial interpolation for estimating missing data to fill the temporal gaps in daily air temperature data in northeast China. A cross-validation experiment was conducted. Daily air temperature series from 1960 to 2012 at each station were estimated by using the universal Kriging (UK) and Kriging with an external drift (KED), as appropriate, as if all the ob-servations at a given station were completely missing. The temporal and spatial variation patterns of estimation uncertainties were also checked. Results showed that Kriging spatial interpolation was generally desirable for estimating missing data in daily air temperature, and in this study KED performed slightly better than UK. At most stations the correlation coefficients (R2) between the observed and estimated daily series were 〉0.98, and root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the estimated daily mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) of air temperature were 〈3 ℃. However, the estimation quality was strongly affected by seasonality and had spatial variation. In general, estimation uncertainties were small in summer and large in winter. On average, the RMSE in winter was approximately 1 ℃ higher than that in summer. In addition, estimation uncertainties in mountainous areas with complex terrain were significantly larger than those in plain areas. 展开更多
关键词 daily air temperature gap filling Kriging spatial interpolation northeast china
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The Weather Temperature and Air Pollution Interaction and Its Effect on Hospital Admissions due to Respiratory System Diseases in Western China 被引量:5
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作者 WANG Min Zhen ZHENG Shan +2 位作者 WANG Shi Gong TAO Yan SHANG Ke Zheng 《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第5期403-407,共5页
Air pollution has ever become a global major public health problem.Previous studies showed that air pollution is associated with excessive mortality and morbidity of respiratory disease[1-2].The extreme weather temper... Air pollution has ever become a global major public health problem.Previous studies showed that air pollution is associated with excessive mortality and morbidity of respiratory disease[1-2].The extreme weather temperature can impact human health and the thermal stresses can lead not only to direct deaths and illnesses,but also to aggravation of respiratory disease[3-4].Though the independent 展开更多
关键词 The Weather temperature and air Pollution Interaction and Its Effect on Hospital Admissions due to Respiratory System Diseases in Western china
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On the relationship between convection intensity of South China Sea summer monsoon and air-sea temperature difference in the tropical oceans 被引量:12
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作者 LINAilan LIANGJianyin +1 位作者 GUDejun WANGDongxiao 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2004年第2期267-278,共12页
The annual, interannual and inter-decadal variability of convection intensity of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and air-sea temperature difference in the tropical ocean is analyzed, and their relationship is dis... The annual, interannual and inter-decadal variability of convection intensity of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and air-sea temperature difference in the tropical ocean is analyzed, and their relationship is discussed using two data sets of 48-a SODA (simple ocean data assimilation) and NCEP/NCAR. Analyses show that in wintertime Indian Ocean (WIO), springtime central tropical Pacific (SCTP) and summertime South China Sea-West Pacific (SSCSWP), air-sea temperature difference is significantly associated with the convection intensity of South China Sea summer monsoon. Correlation of the inter-decadal time scale (above 10 a) is higher and more stable. There is inter-decadal variability of correlation in scales less than 10 a and it is related with the air-sea temperature difference itself for corresponding waters. The inter-decadal variability of the convection intensity during the South China Sea summer monsoon is closely related to the inter-decadal variability of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Since the late period of the 1970s, in the lower troposphere, the cross-equatorial flow from the Southern Hemisphere has intensified. At the upper troposphere layer, the South Asian high and cross-equatorial flow from the Northern Hemisphere has intensified at the same time. Then the monsoon cell has also strengthened and resulted in the reinforcing of the convection of South China Sea summer monsoon. 展开更多
关键词 tropical oceans air-sea temperature difference South china Sea summer monsoon convection Convec-tion intensity
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Research on Air Temperature Variation Characteristics and Trend in Tacheng Prefecture in Xinjiang during 1954-2008 被引量:1
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作者 苗正伟 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第12期38-41,45,共5页
[Objective] The aim was to analyze the changes characteristics of temperature in Tacheng.[Method] By dint of monthly average temperature from 1955 to 2008 in four typical meteorology station,Tacheng,Hebukesai’er,Tuol... [Objective] The aim was to analyze the changes characteristics of temperature in Tacheng.[Method] By dint of monthly average temperature from 1955 to 2008 in four typical meteorology station,Tacheng,Hebukesai’er,Tuoli and Wusu,the temperature multi-temporal scale characteristics and changes trend in future in Tacheng were expounded by small wave analysis and climate trend coefficient method.[Result] The average temperature in so many years in Tacheng was 5.88 ℃.The annual changes of temperature were relatively stable.The coefficient of changes were between 0.130-0.265.The extreme value was between 1.73-3.79;the sequence distribution of temperature showed plat peak form and the annual average temperature was divergence.The temperature in Tacheng had 5-year,9-year and 14-year period.It was in cold period in 1970 when average temperature was only 3.77 ℃.The 1980s was the warmest age in recent 54 years,reaching 8.10℃.In recent 90s,and comparing with 80s,temperature in Tacheng was decreasing,but still higher than that in 70s.It was forecasted that the temperature in future would increase.The annual average temperature in each area and the average temperature in each season in Tacheng increased significantly,with a range of 1.15-2.05 ℃/10 a.The smallest temperature increase speed in summer was 0.16-0.45 ℃/10 a.The annual average temperature changes speed was 0.40-0.78 ℃/10 a.[Conclusion] The temperature changes in Tacheng had positive corresponding trend toward the climate warming. 展开更多
关键词 air temperature Variation characteristic Tendency analysis Tacheng Prefecture XINJIANG china
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Detecting and Adjusting Temporal Inhomogeneity in Chinese Mean Surface Air Temperature Data 被引量:70
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作者 李庆祥 刘小宁 +2 位作者 张洪政 Thomas C.PETERSON David R.EASTERLING 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2004年第2期260-268,共9页
Adopting the Easterling-Peterson (EP) techniques and considering the reality of Chinese meteorological observations, this paper designed several tests and tested for inhomogeneities in all Chinese historical surface a... Adopting the Easterling-Peterson (EP) techniques and considering the reality of Chinese meteorological observations, this paper designed several tests and tested for inhomogeneities in all Chinese historical surface air temperature series from 1951 to 2001. The result shows that the time series have been widely impacted by inhomogeneities resulting from the relocation of stations and changes in local environment such as urbanization or some other factors. Among these factors, station relocations caused the largest magnitude of abrupt changes in the time series, and other factors also resulted in inhomogeneities to some extent. According to the amplitude of change of the difference series and the monthly distribution features of surface air temperatures, discontinuities identified by applying both the E-P technique and supported by China's station history records, or by comparison with other approaches, have been adjusted. Based on the above processing, the most significant temporal inhomogeneities were eliminated, and China's most homogeneous surface air temperature series has thus been created. Results show that the inhomogeneity testing captured well the most important change of the stations, and the adjusted dataset is more reliable than ever. This suggests that the adjusted temperature dataset has great value of decreasing the uncertaities in the study of observed climate change in China. 展开更多
关键词 china surface air temperature HOMOGENEITY testing and adjusting
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Future Changes and Uncertainties in Temperature and Precipitation over China Based on CMIP5 Models 被引量:22
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作者 TIAN Di GUO Yan DONG Wenjie 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第4期487-496,共10页
Climate changes in future 21 st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5). By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface ai... Climate changes in future 21 st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5). By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface air temperature(SAT) is predicted to increase by 1.3℃± 0.7℃, 2.6℃± 0.8℃ and 5.2℃± 1.2℃ under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, relative to 1986–2005, respectively. The future change in SAT averaged over China increases the most in autumn/winter and the least in spring, while the uncertainty shows little seasonal variation.Spatially, the annual and seasonal mean SAT both show a homogeneous warming pattern across China, with a warming rate increasing from southeastern China to the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, invariant with time and emissions scenario.The associated uncertainty in SAT decreases from northern to southern China. Meanwhile, by 2081–2100, the annual mean precipitation increases by 5% ± 5%, 8% ± 6% and 12% ± 8% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The national average precipitation anomaly percentage, largest in spring and smallest in winter, and its uncertainty, largest in winter and smallest in autumn, show visible seasonal variations. Although at a low confidence level, a homogeneous wetting pattern is projected across China on the annual mean scale, with a larger increasing percentage in northern China and a weak drying in southern China in the early 21 st century. The associated uncertainty is also generally larger in northern China and smaller in southwestern China. In addition, both SAT and precipitation usually show larger seasonal variability on the sub-regional scale compared with the national average. 展开更多
关键词 CMIP5 china surface air temperature PRECIPITATION PROJECTION UNCERTAINTY
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A Decadal Shift of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Northeast Asia around the Mid-1990s 被引量:17
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作者 CHEN Wei LU Riyu 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第4期735-742,共8页
This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the ... This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993.This decadal shift also extends to northern China,and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s.On the one hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer,but not in other seasons.On the other hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean,but also in each month of summer (June,July and August).Furthermore,the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia,which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China,according to previous numerical results.Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China. 展开更多
关键词 surface air temperature Northeast Asia decadal shift mid-1990s South china rainfall
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On Multi-Timescale Variability of Temperature in China in Modulated Annual Cycle Reference Frame 被引量:16
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作者 钱诚 Zhaohua WU +1 位作者 符淙斌 周天军 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第5期1169-1182,共14页
The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely us... The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature (SAT) in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an exten-sion of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability (ILV) than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions (annual or summer or winter mean) of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed. 展开更多
关键词 modulated annual cycle the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition climate anomaly climate normal variability of surface air temperature in china
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The Interannual Variation in Monthly Temperature over Northeast China during Summer 被引量:9
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作者 CHEN Wei LU Riyu 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第3期515-524,共10页
The interannual variations of summer surface air temperature over Northeast China (NEC) were investigated through a month-to-month analysis from May to August. The results suggested that the warmer temperature over ... The interannual variations of summer surface air temperature over Northeast China (NEC) were investigated through a month-to-month analysis from May to August. The results suggested that the warmer temperature over NEC is related to a local positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly for all four months. However, the teleconnection patterns of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the monthly surface air temperature over NEC behave as a distinguished subseasonal variation, although the local positive height anomaly is common from month to month. In May and June, the teleconnection pattern is characterized by a wave train in the upper and middle troposphere from the Indian Peninsula to NEC. This wave train is stronger in June than in May, possibly due to the positive feedback between the wave train and the South Asian rainfall anomaly in June, when the South Asian summer monsoon has been established. In July and August, however, the teleconnection pattern associated with the NEC temperature anomalies is characterized by an East Asia/Pacific (EAP) or Pacific/Japan (PJ) pattern, with the existence of precipitation anomalies over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea. This pattern is much clearer in July corresponding to the stronger convection over the Philippine Sea compared to that in August. 展开更多
关键词 surface air temperature Northeast china interannual variation subseasonal variation teleconnection patterns.
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Influence of October Eurasian Snow on Winter Temperature over Northeast China 被引量:5
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作者 Huanlian LI Huijun WANG Dabang JIANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第1期116-126,共11页
This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation betw... This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between October Eurasian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The snow cover located in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal plays an important role in the winter air temperature anomaly. More (less) eastern Siberia snow in October can cause an atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern in which the atmospheric pressure is higher (lower) than normal in the polar region and lower (higher) in the northern mid-high latitudes. Due to the persistence of the eastern Siberia snow from October to the following winter, the winter atmospheric anomaly is favorable (unfavorable) to the widespread movement of cold air masses from the polar region toward the northern mid-high latitudes and, hence, lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China. Simultaneously, when the October snow cover is more (less), the SST in the northwestern Pacific is continuously lower (higher) as a whole; then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced (weakened), favoring the lower (higher) temperature over Northeast China. 展开更多
关键词 winter air temperature Northeast china Eurasian snow cover physical mechanism atmospheric circulationanomaly
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Air Temperature Changes and Urbanization Contribution Ratio in Kunming City in Recent 50 Years
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作者 HE Yun-ling LU Zhi-hai 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 2012年第1期41-44,共4页
[Objective] The aim was to study air temperature changes and urbanization contribution ration in Kunming City in recent 50 years. [ Method] The observation data of air temperature series from Kunming station and other... [Objective] The aim was to study air temperature changes and urbanization contribution ration in Kunming City in recent 50 years. [ Method] The observation data of air temperature series from Kunming station and other four surrounding meteorological stations were used to in- vestigate air temperature variation in Kunming station affected by urbanization during 1960 -2009. [ Result] The trend slope of mean annual temper- ature was 0.402 ~(3/10 a in Kunming station and 0. 103 ~C/10 a in other four surrounding meteorological stations, and the increasing magnitude of air temperature in Kunming station was more than 3 times that of average global warming in the past 50 year. The effect of urbanization on mean an- nual temperature in Kunming station started from 1990. During 1990 -1994, the increasing contribution rate of urbanization to air temperature in Kunming station was less than 40%. From 1995 to 2009, the contribution ratio was more than 50%, up to about 60% in all seasons. Urban heat is- land effect in Kunming station was intensified with the development of urbanization. In addition, the warming rate caused by urban heat island effect in Kunming station was the greatest in dry season, followed by mean annual temperature, and it was the weakest in rainy season. [ Conclusion] The study provided theoretical foundation for future research. 展开更多
关键词 URBANIZATION air temperature change Urban heat island Kunming china
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