Neighborhood Effects and Political Trust: A Multi-level Analysis of Chinese Rural-to-Urban Migrants’ Trust in County Government

Massive rural-to-urban migration in China is consequential for political trust: rural-to-urban migrants have been found to hold lower levels of trust in local government than their rural peers who choose to stay in the countryside (mean 4.92 and 6.34 out of 10, respectively, p < 0.001). This article explores why migrants have a certain level of political trust in their county-level government. Using data of rural-to-urban migrants from the China Family Panel Survey, this study performs a hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to unpack the multi-level explanatory factors of rural-to-urban migrants’ political trust. Findings show that the individual-level socio-economic characteristics and perceptions of government performance (Level-1), the neighborhood-level characteristics-the physical and social status and environment of neighborhoods (Level-2), and the objective macroeconomic performance of county-level government (Level-3), work together to explain migrants’ trust levels. These results suggest that considering the effects of neighborhood-level factors on rural-to-urban migrants’ political trust merits policy and public management attention in rapidly urbanizing countries.

Neighborhood Effects and Regional Poverty Traps in Rural China

The present paper investigates how neighborhood effects are connected to chronic poverty. We examine a large sample of groups of households and find that neighborhood effects are significant in a majority of groups, especially in the poorest groups. People living in poor communities tend to suffer from poverty over time. It is of theoretical and empirical importance to explore how neighborhood effects are interrelated with chronic poverty and the channels through which this occurs. Unlike other econometric analyses, we establish a multilevel econometric model to show that： （i） it is difficult for an individual living in a neighborhood with a high proportion of agricultural labor, low education levels, and poor transport and telecommunication infrastructure to escape from poverty traps; （ii） neighborhood effects dominate in poor communities; and （iii） although poverty is affected by group-level factors, individual factors still play a dominant role in regards to escaping poverty when income surpasses a threshold level Therefore, policy priority should be given to providing social protection and public services, especially in poor rural areas.

Neighborhood effects on the tannin-related foraging decisions of two rodent species under semi-natural conditions

Neighborhood effects on seed predation and dispersal processes are usually seed-characteristic-dependent;however,how seeds with certain characteristics affect the foraging behavior of rodents in relation to other seeds nearby is unclear.Because large differences in seed characteristics between neighboring seeds may lead to significant differences in rodent foraging preferences,we hypothesized that neighborhood effects were more likely to be detected when paired seeds differed in seed characteristics.We investigated the foraging decisions of two rodent species,the red spiny rat Maxomys surifer and the Chinese white-bellied rat Niviventer confucianus,in semi-natural enclosures by presenting them with artificial seeds containing different levels of tannin(0,3%,and 6%tannin).Both rodents showed similar preferences and preferentially consumed high-tannin seeds(6%tannin)and scatter hoarded low-tannin seeds(0 tannin).The scatter hoarding of low-tannin(0 tannin)and high-tannin(6%tannin)seeds was significantly higher when these seeds were neighboring higher-tannin seeds than when they neighbored lowertannin seeds,whereas the scatter hoarding of intermediate-tannin seeds(3%tannin)varied little when they had different neighbors.High-tannin-seed(6%tannin)scatter hoarding was lowest when they neighbored low-tannin seeds(0 tannin),while low-tannin-seed(0 tannin)scatter hoarding was highest when they neighbored high-tannin seeds(6%tannin).Therefore,the seeds that the rodents scatter hoarded were next to(neighbored)seeds that they preferred to eat immediately,and vice versa.Our findings suggest that seed neighborhood effects affect rodent foraging behavior and the relationship between plants and rodents,and may have a profound effect on the regeneration and spatial structure of plant communities.

Identifying Neighborhood Effects on Geohazard Adaptation in Mountainous Rural Areas of China:A Spatial Econometric Model

In mountainous rural settlements facing the threat of geohazards,local adaptation is a self-organizing process influenced by individual and group behaviors.Encouraging a wide range of local populations to embrace geohazard adaptation strategies emerges as a potent means of mitigating disaster risks.The purpose of this study was to investigate whether neighbors influence individuals'adaptation decisions,as well as to unravel the mechanisms through which neighborhood effects exert their influence.We employed a spatial Durbin model and a series of robustness checks to confirm the results.The dataset used in this research came from a face-to-face survey involving 516 respondents residing in 32 rural settlements highly susceptible to geohazards.Our empirical results reveal that neighborhood effects are an important determinant of adaptation to geohazards.That is,a farmer's adaptation decision is influenced by the adaptation choices of his/her neighbors.Furthermore,when neighbors adopt adaptation strategies,the focal individuals may also want to adapt,both because they learn from their neighbors'choices(social learning)and because they tend to abide by the majority's choice(social norms).Incorporating neighborhood effects into geohazard adaptation studies offers a new perspective for promoting disaster risk reduction decision making.

Neighborhood diversity structure and neighborhood species richness effects differ across life stages in a subtropical natural secondary forest

Natural secondary forest has a strong capacity to regrow naturally and recover biodiversity rapidly on abandoned lands.However,at the neighborhood scale,which can truly reflect the facilitative or competitive interactions among individual plants,the local diversity spatial structure in secondary forest and the feedback effects of neighborhood diversity on natural regeneration remain unclear,and this may be the key to properly understand the mechanisms of natural secondary forest species diversity recovery.To this end,this study established a dynamic plot in a rehabilitated secondary forest after disturbance and conducted a comprehensive survey of 68,336 individual plants with repeated measurements at 5-year interval to assess the characteristics of neighborhood diversity structure across life history stages and link the neighborhood species richness(NSR)effect translated by species interactions at species diversity structure with individual trees recruitment/mortality in secondary forest regeneration.The results showed that,compared with tropical and temperate natural forests,a higher proportion of diversity accumulators and a lower proportion of repellers in subtropical secondary forests resulted in neighborhood diversity structures characterized by heterospecific or high-diversity patches,which are beneficial to the maintenance or restoration of biodiversity.As an important supplement to the research on the relationship between diversity and productivity,our findings show a positive diversity-survival relationship in subtropical secondary forests.Importantly,we observed that the neighborhood diversity structure exhibited a trend of accumulator-dominated to neutral-dominant changes with life stage from sapling to adult,which,in turn,determined the direction and strength of NSR effects on recruitment/mortality.Specifically,diverse local neighborhoods at a later successional stage characterized with‘neutral’species-species interactions can act as a‘welfare net’by offering favorable microhabitats for the most vulnerable recruitments or saplings,i.e.,the NSR effects that promoted individual recruitment/survival in our study.These results not only enrich our understanding of the biodiversity-productivity-survival relationship but also highlight the importance of retaining latesuccessional species of native trees in intensive forest production or in situ conservation policies.

An Assessment of Association between Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Infant Mortality in High Focus States in India

Neighbourhood characteristics influence infant mortality above and beyond individual/household factors. In India, there are very few studies discussing the effects of neighbourhood characteristics on infant mortality. This study examined the effect of neighbourhood socioeconomic characteristics on infant mortality using data from the India’s Third District Level Household Survey conducted in 2007-2008. Multilevel analyses applied on the representative sample of 168,625 nested within 14,193 communities using MCMC procedure. Results established that place of residence, neighbourhood socio-economic factors as important determinants of infant mortality. Overall, being born in affluent (OR: 0.79, p < 0.01), more educated (OR: 0.86, p < 0.01) and socially disadvantaged caste (OR: 0.83, p < 0.01) neighbourhood was associated with the significant reduction in hazards of infant death. The finding of this study suggests that effort should be made to reduce infant mortality in these high focus states by including policies which aim at improving infant survival in the neighbourhood that is economically and socially deprived.

How topography and neighbor shape the fate of trees in subtropical forest restoration:Environmental filtering and resource competition drive natural regeneration

The structure of plant communities at local scales depends on both the spatial heterogeneity of abiotic environmental factors and the biotic interactions within the community.However,although environmental filtering due to microtopographic heterogeneity and resource competition among plants caused by spatial variation in tree density and size are considered to be very important in explaining the mechanisms of community assembly,their effects on the processes of individual mortality and recruitment in natural forest regeneration,as well as their relative contributions,are still poorly understood.To address this,we established a 12-ha permanent plot in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest area and measured microtopographic variables such as elevation,slope,aspect,and terrain position index(TPI)using a total station.We monitored the individual mortality and recruitment in forest natural regeneration through repeated surveys at 5-year intervals.We fitted spatial covariance models to jointly use multiple factors from three groups of variables(microtopographic effect,neighborhood density effects,neighborhood size effects)as explanatory variables to analyze their roles in driving the mortality and recruitment of all individual and 12 dominant species in forest natural regeneration at the neighborhood scale.Our results show that:(1)In the crucial early stages of secondary forest restoration,natural regeneration is influenced by a synergy of environmental filtering,due to microtopographic heterogeneity,and resource competition among plants.(2)For distinct species responses,evergreen dominant species'mortality is largely explained by neighborhood effects,while deciduous species are more affected by topographic factors.Furthermore,the adverse effects of larger conspecific trees on younger trees indicate a pattern of competitive pressure leading to mortality among regenerating trees,such pattern emphasis the influence of parent trees on natural regeneration.(3)As trees grow,their interaction with these stressors evolves,suggesting a shift in their resource acquisition strategies and response to neighborhood effects and environmental factors.Despite these changes,the relative importance of topographic factors in determining survival and recruitment success remains constant.This research highlights the importance of considering both environmental and neighborhood effects in forest management,particularly in early secondary forest restoration.

邻里效应能否促进居民膳食健康?——以农村相对贫困群体为样本的经验分析

基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从社会经济学的视角切入,理论分析并实证检验居民膳食健康邻里效应的存在性和作用效果,并进一步探讨膳食回报和生活期望的中介作用。结果表明:(1)居民膳食健康存在较强的邻里效应,且表现出显著的正向促进作用,即邻里间居民均衡膳食的生活方式能够带动一定区域内其他居民膳食健康水平的提高;(2)邻里效应有助于缓解由于经济地位差异带来的居民膳食健康不平等程度,具有明显的益贫性特征;(3)邻里效应主要通过为居民提供均衡膳食与身体健康相对应这一膳食回报先验信息和增强其对未来生活的期望发挥作用。基于分析结果,建议从重视发挥邻里帮扶与模范引领作用、广泛拓展邻里效应作用渠道及加大膳食健康宣传教育力度三个方面入手,加快实现居民膳食健康水平的提高和健康人力资本的积累。

数字经济助推新型城镇化发展:基于空间杜宾模型和门槛模型的分析

从人口城镇化、经济城镇化、社会城镇化、生态城镇化四维度解构新型城镇化,在构建数字经济助推新型城镇化发展理论框架的基础上,以2011-2020年中国283个地级及以上城市的面板数据为样本,利用空间杜宾模型和面板门槛模型实证检验了数字经济对新型城镇化的“本地-邻地”效应和门槛效应。结果表明:①数字经济对本地及邻地新型城镇化均具有显著推动作用;②数字经济对本地新型城镇化4个子维度影响显著,并对邻地人口城镇化、经济城镇化表现出明显空间溢出效应;③东、中西部区域差异导致数字经济对新型城镇化产生不同影响效果;城市规模过大或过小均不利于数字经济有效助力本地及邻地新型城镇化发展;④数字经济对新型城镇化的推动作用具有非线性特征,当数字经济水平越过第二门槛值后,其推动作用大为增强,数字经济对人口城镇化和经济城镇化存在双重门槛,对生态城镇化存在单一门槛。

不同加载条件下含瓦斯煤岩强度极限邻域范围研究

煤与瓦斯突出灾害的发生机理尚不清楚,据流变假说,含瓦斯煤岩在长期载荷下可能进入“强度极限邻域”,此时受外部冲击扰动更易破坏。为研究不同加载条件下含瓦斯煤岩的“强度极限邻域”,以找到进入该状态的影响规律,并建立相应的微观判别标准,利用自主研发的岩石流变扰动效应三轴试验系统和煤岩流变扰动效应渗流实验装置,开展不同围压、不同瓦斯压力、轴压下的含瓦斯煤岩流变扰动实验,通过核磁共振手段对流变扰动前后煤岩进行分析对比,得到不同加载条件下的孔隙率、孔径分布、T_(2)谱曲线。试验结果表明:①不同加载条件下的煤岩流变过程中,存在一个应力阈值,可以使得煤岩在受到外部冲击扰动后阈值左右邻域有不同力学性质的表现;当施加力小于此阈值时,冲击扰动后,煤岩的孔隙度减小,煤样随之被压缩紧密,T_(2)谱曲线中代表大孔径的谱峰降低,谱峰曲线左移;当施加力大于此阈值时,冲击扰动后,煤岩大孔径孔隙增多,T_(2)谱曲线出现右移,所有谱峰高度增大,说明该应力阈值是用来判断煤岩是否进入“强度极限邻域”关键。②围压和瓦斯压力对煤岩的影响具有相反的力学作用性质,在抗压能力、损伤程度、长期强度、“强度极限邻域”中有所表现,其中,围压越大,煤岩越晚进入“强度极限邻域”,瓦斯压力越大,煤岩则越早进入该邻域。③煤岩的孔径分布、T_(2)谱曲线能直观反映了煤岩“强度极限邻域”内、外微观变化特征。④通过煤岩孔隙率所确定的进入“强度极限邻域”时的轴压与围压、瓦斯压力构建函数方程可判断不同加载条件煤岩进入“强度极限邻域”的时机,作为进入“强度极限邻域”范围时的判别标准,其中围压越大,此时进入“强度极限邻域”范围时的应力阈值越大;瓦斯压力越大,进入“强度极限邻域”时的应力阈值越小。

村民志愿服务的邻里效应研究--基于社会互动的理论视角

立足农村现实邻里环境考察村民志愿服务的行为决策,对激发村民志愿服务热情,进而助推农村农民共同富裕具有重要意义。从社会互动视角,以村社为参照群组,利用2021年中国社会状况综合调查(CSS)数据,对村民志愿服务的邻里效应进行了理论推导和实证检验,并进一步考察了邻里效应的内部机制、村社类型的异质性。研究发现:村民志愿服务存在显著的邻里效应,村社其他村民的志愿服务活动每提升1个单位,村民参与志愿服务的概率提升15.7%—26.7%;村民之间的信息传递以及村社内部形成的社会规范是邻里效应发挥作用的重要渠道;社会规范机制的存在,使得宗族结构较为完整的团结型村社更容易产生村民志愿服务的邻里效应,其次是以多个小亲族共存的分裂型村社,再次是原子化的分散型村社。研究结论为农村志愿服务激励机制的完善、相关政策有效性的提升提供了理论参考和经验借鉴。

乡村聚落平面形态的建筑节点网络图研究——从有效可视空间到一阶邻域

在乡村聚落中,建筑是以空间化方式、自组织机制聚集生长,从而在聚落内形成了错综复杂的局部空间;每个建筑都通过一定的局部空间为介质,与其他建筑建立秩序关联;求解所有这些具有空间关联的两两建筑之间的秩序关系量值,便可通过统计汇集为聚落整体的形态秩序趋向。在这个过程中,笔者在既往研究中采用了基于有效可视空间原则的建筑节点网络图来计量两两建筑之间的秩序关系量值。文章在对其分析评价的基础上,采用空间中轴线划分聚落空间,形成建筑户域,并根据户域相邻性原则和影响距离的限制,确定两两建筑之间是否具有显著的空间关联,进而绘制基于一阶邻域原则的建筑节点网络图。从有效可视空间网络图到一阶邻域网络图的方法提升,能够使研究对象聚焦于更核心的局部空间,进而使网络图更简洁、数据运算更高效。

不同干旱程度下社会规范对农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统的影响

全球气候变暖导致干旱事件频发,干旱已经严重威胁农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统的健康发展。与此同时,受超载过牧干扰草原生态环境日益恶化,农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统面临巨大压力。为维持农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统的可持续发展,国务院于2002年、2012年和2016年相继实行草原禁牧政策、第一轮草原生态奖补政策和第二轮草原生态奖补政策。然而,政策实施以来违规放牧现象长期存在,农户违规放牧使草原生态系统受到影响,导致禁牧政策和草原生态奖补政策未能有效发挥作用,农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统依然面临系统崩溃风险。基于此,以草场沙化严重区域宁夏盐池县为例,基于多主体建模与仿真方法(Agent-based model,ABM)模拟农户放牧行为决策过程,分析不同干旱程度下,执法力度和邻里效应等社会规范对农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统的影响机制。为更合理的展示和模拟农牧交错区实际,本文结合2021年盐池县问卷调研数据、社会经济统计数据、部分文献数据以及草原监测数据等,对ABM模型中的参数进行设定,构建了用于模拟干旱干扰下农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统模型。结果显示:(1)干旱影响下农户收入呈先上升后下降的趋势,且农户收入最终低于初始状态。同时,随干旱概率的增加,草地生态系统退化趋势加剧。(2)总体而言,当草场面临干旱等自然灾害影响时,执法力度的增加并未有效保证社会⁃生态系统健康发展。具体表现为,当干旱来临时随执法力度的增加,农户收入能够维持在稳定的区间内,执法力度对农户收入产生的影响较小。并且,在不同干旱程度下执法力度的增强未能有效制止违规放牧行为,导致草地生态系统继续退化。(3)强邻里效应能够很大程度上影响农户行为决策,进而对农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统产生影响。当农户行为决策受周围农户影响很大时(即强邻里效应下),农户更容易实施违规放牧,致使草地生态系统受超载放牧和干旱影响,造成草地生态系统恶化。而从短期来看违规放牧导致农户生产成本大幅降低,从而提升了农户生产效益,增加农户收入。然而长远而言,强邻里效应下大量农户违规放牧,致使草地生态系统达到最大载畜量,草地生态系统恶化,农户转为舍饲养殖,农户生产经济效益下降,农户收入逐渐下降。

老旧小区改造居民满意度影响因素研究

居民满意度对老旧小区的可持续性改造与发展有着至关重要的影响。基于邻里效应理论和有机更新理论对老旧小区改造居民满意度进行研究,通过问卷调查法对白银市老旧小区的居民进行调研,利用结构方程模型(SEM)对数据进行分析。结果表明,改造内容、政府行为、居民参与和社区情感对居民满意度有显著的正向影响,政府行为对改造内容有显著的正向影响,改造内容对社区情感有显著的正向影响,居民参与、改造内容在政府行为与居民满意度的关系中分别发挥中介作用,社区情感、居民参与在改造内容与居民满意度的关系中分别发挥中介作用。因此在未来的老旧小区改造过程中,应当进一步结合居民需求优化改造内容,积极发挥基层政府组织的作用,建立多渠道的居民参与途径,创建和谐的邻里关系进而提升居民满意度,对促进我国老旧小区可持续改造具有重要意义。

基于有效限制邻域结构的禁忌搜索求解预算最大覆盖问题

针对预算最大覆盖问题,设计出一种基于有效限制邻域结构的禁忌搜索算法(Effectively Restricted Neighborhood Structure Based Tabu Search,ERNSBTS)对其求解。该算法主要由动态初始化、基于策略限制邻域结构和动态随机扰动重新初始化三部分组成。首先,提出构建剩余利润和剩余价值密度来生成好的初始解。然后,引入计数器G来记录当前解下元素覆盖次数,设计相对置空率和相对增益率两种策略来得到最有期望子集来限制邻域结构。最后,设计扰动程序,将贪婪与启发式思想相结合,考虑全局和局部的凸组合,以增加初始解的多样性。在数值实验中,分析了ERNSBTS算法参数设置,同时将其与近似算法、PLTS和VDLS算法的结果进行比较分析,证实了ERNSBTS算法在求解质量、计算效率和鲁棒性方面的高竞争力。

基于多情景仿真模拟的城市高密度街区屋顶绿化降温效应定量研究

城市热岛效应与高密度、高强度发展的中心城区建成环境为城市绿色基础设施建设和健康发展带来了新的挑战,提出了新的要求。屋顶绿化不额外占用建设用地,成为改善城市热环境的重要战略措施之一。针对当前屋顶绿化降温模拟与实际规划建设过程关联性较低、街区降温特征分析维度不深入的问题,基于建设规模、建设时序、建设类型三个影响要素,实现了从基于抽象实验思维构建屋顶绿化降温效应理想情景到基于规划建设决策视角构建实际情景的方法转变。并从城市街区的整体到局部,运用ENVI⁃met多视角审察不同情景中屋顶绿化在高密度城市街区的降温效应量化特征。研究结果表明:(1)屋顶绿化降温强度随建设规模的增加呈分段线性增长,相同规模裙房建设屋顶绿化的降温效应要远高于公共建筑和商业建筑。(2)在热环境改善更急迫的区域建设屋顶绿化可以局部降温,但从整体上看并未获得更高的降温收益;当新建屋顶绿化位置相近时,表现出明显的降温效应增长放缓的现象;(3)同高度下屋顶绿化的降温强度随与屋顶绿化边界距离的增加而总体呈现指数型函数的衰减特征,平行于主导风向的降温强度衰减速率要明显慢于垂直于主导风向;(4)密集型屋顶绿化在研究区网格的平均降温强度为粗放型屋顶绿化的4.69倍。基于上述降温模拟结果提出针对性的规划策略,为高密度街区屋顶绿化的建设实践提供科学依据,进而改善高密度街区热环境,促进城市居民之健康福祉,推动高密度城市街区的健康转型。

初育年龄的同伴效应研究

初育年龄的推迟已成为全球趋势,初育年龄直接关系到生育期时间的长度。基于此,本文使用2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据,从邻里同伴和教育同伴两个维度分析初育年龄的同伴效应。研究表明,初育年龄存在显著的同伴效应,行为个体会受到同一社区和同一教育背景的同伴晚育行为的影响,从而推迟个人生育计划。同伴效应的作用存在异质性,其对男性群体的影响较大,邻里同伴效应对农村个体的影响较大,而教育同伴效应则对城镇个体的影响较大。研究结果有助于理解初育年龄推迟的成因,而且能够解释区域和群体初育年龄的分异,为进一步优化生育政策提供参考。

基于触媒效应的城中村改造影响评价——以深圳大冲村改造项目为例

城市规划实施评价是城市规划工作的重要组成部分,而城中村改造长期以来较少关注全周期的影响评价研究。基于城市设计的“触媒理论”,以广东省深圳大冲村改造影响评价为线索,梳理改造过程中项目的定位与方案演变过程。通过对比两个阶段不同方案的核心指标,分析空间要素的差异,探究在开发商主导模式下,项目改造定位错位、多方利益博弈等诸多问题。最后,从住区形态的角度解析大冲村改造后的变化,并以租客和住客两种人群为线索,分析改造项目对高新区造成的影响。针对城中村改造中的价值观念、政策导控、评价体系3方面提出建议。旨在为今后拆除重建类城中村改造项目提供借鉴,以期规避改造项目可能带来的负面效应,进而推动城市更新活动健康有序地进行。

基于PLS-SEM的老旧小区改造居民参与影响因素研究——以厦门市为例

厘清老旧小区改造居民参与意愿的关键影响因素,对推动城市更新与可持续发展具有重要意义。为此,本研究基于计划行为理论(TPB)对老旧小区居民参与意愿的影响因素进行理论分析,并以厦门市湖里区三个老旧小区改造项目的402份问卷数据为样本,采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)的方法对影响居民参与意愿的关键因素进行实证分析。结果表明:主观规范、知觉行为控制、参与态度、改造项目的信任度、社区治理水平以及政府支持力度等六类因素具有显著积极影响。进一步分析表明,改造项目的透明度可以通过增进项目的信任度和居民参与意愿的链式中介效应来对居民参与意愿产生积极影响。此外,政府支持力度对于提升居民对改造项目的信任度发挥着显著影响。研究结果可以为政府相关部门和项目实施者提供理论支持和措施依据。

基于城乡联系的农村居民点布局优化研究——以重庆市为例

以重庆市义和镇、石龙镇和润溪乡为例,引入引力模型,分析不同区位村镇的城乡联系强度和资源禀赋,确定3种不同的村镇发展类型。构建包括特色指标和普适指标两类指标的居民点综合适宜性评价体系,将各镇居民点划分为重点发展型、保留改造型和迁村并点型3种类型进行空间引导和优化。为适应不同乡镇的发展定位,示范镇农村居民点的优化模式分别体现集聚扩张、内部调整和迁并整合的特征。对不同类型农村居民点优化过程和技术进行探讨,为3个示范镇的规划提供科学依据。