Comparative Analysis of the Factors Influencing Metro Passenger Arrival Volumes in Wuhan, China, and Lagos, Nigeria: An Application of Association Rule Mining and Neural Network Models

This study explores the factors influencing metro passengers’ arrival volume in Wuhan, China, and Lagos, Nigeria, by examining weather, time of day, waiting time, travel behavior, arrival patterns, and metro satisfaction. It addresses a significant research gap in understanding metro passengers’ dynamics across cultural and geographical contexts. It employs questionnaires, field observations, and advanced data analysis techniques like association rule mining and neural network modeling. Key findings include a correlation between rainy weather, shorter waiting times, and higher arrival volumes. Neural network models showed high predictive accuracy, with waiting time, metro satisfaction, and weather being significant factors in Lagos Light Rail Blue Line Metro. In contrast, arrival patterns, weather, and time of day were more influential in Wuhan Metro Line 5. Results suggest that improving metro satisfaction and reducing waiting times could increase arrival volumes in Lagos Metro while adjusting schedules for weather and peak times could optimize flow in Wuhan Metro. These insights are valuable for transportation planning, passenger arrival volume management, and enhancing user experiences, potentially benefiting urban transportation sustainability and development goals.

Enhancing Evapotranspiration Estimation: A Bibliometric and Systematic Review of Hybrid Neural Networks in Water Resource Management

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration(ET)is crucial for efficient water resource management,particularly in the face of climate change and increasing water scarcity.This study performs a bibliometric analysis of 352 articles and a systematic review of 35 peer-reviewed papers,selected according to PRISMA guidelines,to evaluate the performance of Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks(HANNs)in ET estimation.The findings demonstrate that HANNs,particularly those combining Multilayer Perceptrons(MLPs),Recurrent Neural Networks(RNNs),and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs),are highly effective in capturing the complex nonlinear relationships and tem-poral dependencies characteristic of hydrological processes.These hybrid models,often integrated with optimization algorithms and fuzzy logic frameworks,significantly improve the predictive accuracy and generalization capabilities of ET estimation.The growing adoption of advanced evaluation metrics,such as Kling-Gupta Efficiency(KGE)and Taylor Diagrams,highlights the increasing demand for more robust performance assessments beyond traditional methods.Despite the promising results,challenges remain,particularly regarding model interpretability,computational efficiency,and data scarcity.Future research should prioritize the integration of interpretability techniques,such as attention mechanisms,Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations(LIME),and feature importance analysis,to enhance model transparency and foster stakeholder trust.Additionally,improving HANN models’scalability and computational efficiency is crucial,especially for large-scale,real-world applications.Approaches such as transfer learning,parallel processing,and hyperparameter optimization will be essential in overcoming these challenges.This study underscores the transformative potential of HANN models for precise ET estimation,particularly in water-scarce and climate-vulnerable regions.By integrating CNNs for automatic feature extraction and leveraging hybrid architectures,HANNs offer considerable advantages for optimizing water management,particularly agriculture.Addressing challenges related to interpretability and scalability will be vital to ensuring the widespread deployment and operational success of HANNs in global water resource management.

Multi-Strategy Dynamic Spectrum Access in Cognitive Radio Networks: Modeling, Analysis and Optimization

Dynamic spectrum access(DSA) based on cognitive radios(CR) technique is an effective approach to address the "spectrum scarcity" issue. However, traditional CR-enabled DSA system employs only single DSA strategy, which might not be suited to the dynamic network environment. In this paper, we propose a multi-strategy DSA(MS-DSA) system, where the primary and the secondary system share spectrum resources with multiple DSA strategies simultaneously. To analyze the performance of the proposed MS-DSA system, we model it as a continuous-time Markov chain(CTMC) and derive the expressions to compute the corresponding performance metrics. Based on this, we define a utility function involving the concerns of effective throughput, interference quantity on primary users, and spectrum leasing cost. Two optimization schemes, named as spectrum allocation and false alarm probability selection, are proposed to maximize the utility function. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to validate our analysis and demonstrate that the performance can be significantly improved caused by virtues of the proposed MS-DSA system.

Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model： A case study of the Heihe River drainage basin （1944-2005）

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge （1944-2005） and the Zhengyi Gorge （1954-2005）, which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that： （1） annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m^3/s.10y; （2） annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m^3/s.10y; （3） prediction results show that： during 2006-2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m^3/s.10y and 1.61 m^3/s.10y; （4） the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.

Dynamics Modeling and Robust Trajectory Tracking Control for a Class of Hybrid Humanoid Arm Based on Neural Network

In order to solve the problem of trajectory tracking for a class of novel serial-parallel hybrid humanoid arm（HHA）, which has parameters uncertainty, frictions, disturbance, abrasion and pulse forces derived from motors, a multistep dynamics modeling strategy is proposed and a robust controller based on neural network（NN）-adaptive algorithm is designed. At the first step of dynamics modeling, the dynamics model of the reduced HHA is established by Lagrange method. At the second step of dynamics modeling, the parameter uncertain part resulting mainly from the idealization of the HHA is learned by adaptive algorithm. In the trajectory tracking controller, the radial basis function（RBF） NN, whose optimal weights are learned online by adaptive algorithm, is used to learn the upper limit function of the total uncertainties including frictions, disturbances, abrasion and pulse forces. To a great extent, the conservatism of this robust trajectory tracking controller is reduced, and by this controller the HHA can impersonate mostly human actions. The proof and simulation results testify the validity of the adaptive strategy for parameter learning and the neural network-adaptive strategy for the trajectory tracking control.

Development of an integrated dynamic model for supply security and resilience analysis of natural gas pipeline network systems

An integrated dynamic model of natural gas pipeline networks is developed in this paper.Components for gas supply,e.g.,pipelines,junctions,compressor stations,LNG terminals,regulation stations and gas storage facilities are included in the model.These components are firstly modeled with respect to their properties and functions and,then,integrated at the system level by Graph Theory.The model can be used for simulating the system response in different scenarios of operation,and evaluate the consequences from the perspectives of supply security and resilience.A case study is considered to evaluate the accuracy of the model by benchmarking its results against those from literature and the software Pipeline Studio.Finally,the model is applied on a relatively complex natural gas pipeline network and the results are analyzed in detail from the supply security and resilience points of view.The main contributions of the paper are:firstly,a novel model of a complex gas pipeline network is proposed as a dynamic state-space model at system level;a method,based on the dynamic model,is proposed to analyze the security and resilience of supply from a system perspective.

Modeling and analysis of the ocean dynamic with Gaussian complex network

The techniques for oceanographic observation have made great progress in both space-time coverage and quality, which make the observation data present some characteristics of big data. We explore the essence of global ocean dynamic via constructing a complex network with regard to sea surface temperature. The global ocean is divided into discrete regions to represent the nodes of the network. To understand the ocean dynamic behavior, we introduce the Gaussian mixture models to describe the nodes as limit-cycle oscillators. The interacting dynamical oscillators form the complex network that simulates the ocean as a stochastic system. Gaussian probability matching is suggested to measure the behavior similarity of regions. Complex network statistical characteristics of the network are analyzed in terms of degree distribution, clustering coefficient and betweenness. Experimental results show a pronounced sensitivity of network characteristics to the climatic anomaly in the oceanic circulation. Particularly, the betweenness reveals the main pathways to transfer thermal energy of El Niño–Southern oscillation. Our works provide new insights into the physical processes of ocean dynamic, as well as climate changes and ocean anomalies.

Dynamics and intermittent stochastic stabilization of a rumor spreading model with guidance mechanism in heterogeneous network

We propose a novel rumor propagation model with guidance mechanism in hetero geneous complex networks.Firstly,the sharp threshold of rumor propagation,global stability of the information-equilibrium and information-prevailingequilibrium under R_(0)<1 and R_(0)>1 is carried out by Lyapunov method and LaSalle's invariant principle.Next,we design an aperiodically intermittent stochastic stabilization method to suppress the rumor propagation.By using the Ito formula and exponential martingale inequality,the expression of the minimum control intensity is calculated.This method can effectively stabilize the rumor propagation by choosing a suitable perturb intensity and a perturb time ratio,while minimizing the control cost.Finally,numerical examples are given to illustrate the analysis and method of the paper.

Linking Structural Equation Modeling with Bayesian Network and Its Application to Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Bohai Bay

Bayesian networks （BN） have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modeling （SEM）. In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models, and increases the BN model＇s accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in the Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, although the Redfield ratio indicates that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results show that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay.

Modeling and Dynamic Analysis in Software Systems Based on Complex Networks

A software network model with multiple links is constructed on the basis of a dynamical model of a general complex network with mukiple links. The principle of network division of multiple links is introduced. Following these principles, the software network model is decomposed into three types of subnets and different relationships between classes are revealed. Then, the dynamic analysis of software networks is presented. A sufficient condition for the stability of general complex networks is obtained followed by that of software networks. Finally, the dynamics of an open-source software system is analyzed, and their simulations are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented model.

Application of neural network merging model in dam deformation analysis

In order to improve the prediction accuracy and test the generalization ability of the dam deformation analysis model, the back-propagation（BP） neural network model for dam deformation analysis is studied, and the merging model is built based on the neural network BP algorithm and the traditional statistical model. The three models mentioned above are calculated and analyzed according to the long-term deformation observation data in Chencun Dam. The analytical results show that the average prediction accuracies of the statistical model and the BP neural network model are ~ 0.477 and ＋- 0.390 mm, respectively, while the prediction accuracy of the merging model is ~0. 318 mm, which is improved by 33% and 18% compared to the other two models, respectively. And the merging model has a better generalization ability and broad applicability.

Bayesian Network and Factor Analysis for Modeling Pine Wilt Disease Prevalence

A Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to predict susceptibility to PWD(Pine Wilt Disease). The distribution of PWD was identified using QuickBird and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images taken at different times. Seven factors that influence the distribution of PWD were extracted from the QuickBird images and were used as the independent variables. The results showed that the BN model predicted PWD with high accuracy. In a sensitivity analysis, elevation (EL), the normal differential vegetation index (NDVI), the distance to settlements (DS) and the distance to roads (DR) were strongly associated with PWD prevalence, and slope (SL) exhibited the weakest association with PWD prevalence. The study showed that BN is an effective tool for modeling PWD prevalence and quantifying the impact of various factors.

Modeling and Performance Analysis of Spiral Fishbone Network Using NS-2

In this research, we have projected and carried out a novel fishbone network that shows better performance in the term of minimizing the packet delay with respect to sink speed. Previous study implies that sector angle affects greatly on designing fishbone network. Finite Set of nodes arranges to sense the physical condition of any system is called wireless sensor. Our designed fishbone network can be potentially applied for a wireless sensing system to formulate a whole network. The network is a novel design which has been finalized by comparing sector angle. Analysis takes place by varying packet delay according to sink speed. Future analysis takes place for Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE). Latency of Packet and its size is the measurement criteria of any network or service is called Quality of Service (QoS). On the other hand the user experience of using the designed network is called Quality of Experience (QoE). Our designed network has been analyzed in TCP Tracer to find out the latency or packet delay for different users. The user data has been shorted and equated among them for latency with different no of packets. Our proposed spiral fishbone network shows better QoS and QoE. In future more nodes can be added to design extended fishbone network for wireless.

A Predictive Modeling Based on Regression and Artificial Neural Network Analysis of Laser Transformation Hardening for Cylindrical Steel Workpieces

Laser surface hardening is a very promising hardening process for ferrous alloys where transformations occur during cooling after laser heating in the solid state. The characteristics of the hardened surface depend on the physicochemical properties of the material as well as the heating system parameters. To exploit the benefits presented by the laser hardening process, it is necessary to develop an integrated strategy to control the process parameters in order to produce desired hardened surface attributes without being forced to use the traditional and fastidious trial and error procedures. This study presents a comprehensive modelling approach for predicting the hardened surface physical and geometrical attributes. The laser surface transformation hardening of cylindrical AISI 4340 steel workpieces is modeled using the conventional regression equation method as well as artificial neural network method. The process parameters included in the study are laser power, beam scanning speed, and the workpiece rotational speed. The upper and the lower limits for each parameter are chosen considering the start of the transformation hardening and the maximum hardened zone without surface melting. The resulting models are able to predict the depths representing the maximum hardness zone, the hardness drop zone, and the overheated zone without martensite transformation. Because of its ability to model highly nonlinear problems, the ANN based model presents the best modelling results and can predict the hardness profile with good accuracy.

Heat Transfer and Flow Analysis in Loop Heat Pipe with Multiple Evaporators Using Network Model

Thermal performance of a loop heat pipe with two evaporators and two condensers was examined using a lumped network model analysis. Thermosyphon-type vertical loop heat pipe and capillary-pump-type horizontal loop heat pipe were calculated by examining the change of heating rate of two evaporators. Calculation results showed that the vapor and liquid flow rates in the loop heat pipe and the thermal conductance of the heat pipe changed significantly depending on the distribution ratio of the heating rate of the multiple evaporators. The thermal performance of the vertical loop heat pipe with two evaporators was also examined and experimental results of flow direction and thermal conductance of the heat pipe agreed with the analytical results. The lumped network model analysis is therefore considered accurate and preferable for the practical design of a loop heat pipe with multiple evaporators.

The Effect of Key Nodes on theMalware Dynamics in the Industrial Control Network

As industrialization and informatization becomemore deeply intertwined,industrial control networks have entered an era of intelligence.The connection between industrial control networks and the external internet is becoming increasingly close,which leads to frequent security accidents.This paper proposes a model for the industrial control network.It includes a malware containment strategy that integrates intrusion detection,quarantine,and monitoring.Basedonthismodel,the role of keynodes in the spreadofmalware is studied,a comparisonexperiment is conducted to validate the impact of the containment strategy.In addition,the dynamic behavior of the model is analyzed,the basic reproduction number is computed,and the disease-free and endemic equilibrium of the model is also obtained by the basic reproduction number.Moreover,through simulation experiments,the effectiveness of the containment strategy is validated,the influence of the relevant parameters is analyzed,and the containment strategy is optimized.In otherwords,selective immunity to key nodes can effectively suppress the spread ofmalware andmaintain the stability of industrial control systems.The earlier the immunization of key nodes,the better.Once the time exceeds the threshold,immunizing key nodes is almost ineffective.The analysis provides a better way to contain the malware in the industrial control network.

Structural Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Spatial Association Network:A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta City Cluster,China

City cluster is an effective platform for encouraging regionally coordinated development.Coordinated reduction of carbon emissions within city cluster via the spatial association network between cities can help coordinate the regional carbon emission management,realize sustainable development,and assist China in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This paper applies the improved gravity model and social network analysis(SNA)to the study of spatial correlation of carbon emissions in city clusters and analyzes the structural characteristics of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)city cluster in China and its influencing factors.The results demonstrate that:1)the spatial association of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster exhibits a typical and complex multi-threaded network structure.The network association number and density show an upward trend,indicating closer spatial association between cities,but their values remain generally low.Meanwhile,the network hierarchy and network efficiency show a downward trend but remain high.2)The spatial association network of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster shows an obvious‘core-edge’distribution pattern.The network is centered around Shanghai,Suzhou and Wuxi,all of which play the role of‘bridges’,while cities such as Zhoushan,Ma'anshan,Tongling and other cities characterized by the remote location,single transportation mode or lower economic level are positioned at the edge of the network.3)Geographic proximity,varying levels of economic development,different industrial structures,degrees of urbanization,levels of technological innovation,energy intensities and environmental regulation are important influencing factors on the spatial association of within the YRD city cluster.Finally,policy implications are provided from four aspects:government macro-control and market mechanism guidance,structural characteristics of the‘core-edge’network,reconfiguration and optimization of the spatial layout of the YRD city cluster,and the application of advanced technologies.

Simple model based on artificial neural network for early prediction and simulation winter rapeseed yield

The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June,in the current year,immediately before harvesting.An artificial neural network with multilayer perceptron(MLP) topology was used to build the predictive model.The model was created on the basis of meteorological data(air temperature and atmospheric precipitation) and mineral fertilization data.The data were collected in the period 2008–2017 from 291 productive fields located in Poland,in the southern part of the Opole region.The assessment of the forecast quality created on the basis of the neural model has been verified by defining forecast errors using relative approximation error(RAE),root mean square error(RMS),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) metrics.An important feature of the created predictive model is the ability to forecast the current agrotechnical year based on current weather and fertilizing data.The lowest value of the MAPE error was obtained for a neural network model based on the MLP network of 21:21-13-6-1:1 structure,which was 9.43%.The performed sensitivity analysis of the network examined the factors that have the greatest impact on the yield of winter rape.The highest rank 1 was obtained by an independent variable with the average air temperature from 1 January to 15 April of 2017(designation by the T1-4_CY model).

Dimensionality Reduction with Input Training Neural Network and Its Application in Chemical Process Modelling

Many applications of principal component analysis (PCA) can be found in dimensionality reduction. But linear PCA method is not well suitable for nonlinear chemical processes. A new PCA method based on im-proved input training neural network (IT-NN) is proposed for the nonlinear system modelling in this paper. Mo-mentum factor and adaptive learning rate are introduced into learning algorithm to improve the training speed of IT-NN. Contrasting to the auto-associative neural network (ANN), IT-NN has less hidden layers and higher training speed. The effectiveness is illustrated through a comparison of IT-NN with linear PCA and ANN with experiments. Moreover, the IT-NN is combined with RBF neural network (RBF-NN) to model the yields of ethylene and propyl-ene in the naphtha pyrolysis system. From the illustrative example and practical application, IT-NN combined with RBF-NN is an effective method of nonlinear chemical process modelling.

System structural analysis of communication networks based on DEMATEL-ISM and entropy

A method of system structural analysis based on decision making trial and evaluation laboratory together with interpretative structural modeling(DEMATEL-ISM) and entropy is proposed to clarify system structure of communication networks and analyze mutual influencing degree between different networks.Mutual influencing degree and importance degree of elements are both considered to determine weights of elements,and the entropy of expert judgment results is used to omit unimportant influence relation and simplify system structure.Structural analysis on communication networks system shows that the proposed method can quantificationally present weights and mutual influencing degree of elements,and reasonably simplify system structure.The results indicate the rationality and feasibility of the method.