Automated Machine Learning Algorithm Using Recurrent Neural Network to Perform Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting stands as a crucial research domain within the realm of automated machine learning(AutoML).At present,forecasting,whether rooted in machine learning or statistical learning,typically relies on expert input and necessitates substantial manual involvement.This manual effort spans model development,feature engineering,hyper-parameter tuning,and the intricate construction of time series models.The complexity of these tasks renders complete automation unfeasible,as they inherently demand human intervention at multiple junctures.To surmount these challenges,this article proposes leveraging Long Short-Term Memory,which is the variant of Recurrent Neural Networks,harnessing memory cells and gating mechanisms to facilitate long-term time series prediction.However,forecasting accuracy by particular neural network and traditional models can degrade significantly,when addressing long-term time-series tasks.Therefore,our research demonstrates that this innovative approach outperforms the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)method in forecasting long-term univariate time series.ARIMA is a high-quality and competitive model in time series prediction,and yet it requires significant preprocessing efforts.Using multiple accuracy metrics,we have evaluated both ARIMA and proposed method on the simulated time-series data and real data in both short and long term.Furthermore,our findings indicate its superiority over alternative network architectures,including Fully Connected Neural Networks,Convolutional Neural Networks,and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks.Our AutoML approach enables non-professional to attain highly accurate and effective time series forecasting,and can be widely applied to various domains,particularly in business and finance.

Deep learning framework for time series classification based on multiple imaging and hybrid quantum neural networks

Time series classification(TSC)has attracted a lot of attention for time series data mining tasks and has been applied in various fields.With the success of deep learning(DL)in computer vision recognition,people are starting to use deep learning to tackle TSC tasks.Quantum neural networks(QNN)have recently demonstrated their superiority over traditional machine learning in methods such as image processing and natural language processing,but research using quantum neural networks to handle TSC tasks has not received enough attention.Therefore,we proposed a learning framework based on multiple imaging and hybrid QNN(MIHQNN)for TSC tasks.We investigate the possibility of converting 1D time series to 2D images and classifying the converted images using hybrid QNN.We explored the differences between MIHQNN based on single time series imaging and MIHQNN based on the fusion of multiple time series imaging.Four quantum circuits were also selected and designed to study the impact of quantum circuits on TSC tasks.We tested our method on several standard datasets and achieved significant results compared to several current TSC methods,demonstrating the effectiveness of MIHQNN.This research highlights the potential of applying quantum computing to TSC and provides the theoretical and experimental background for future research.

A Hybrid Neural Network and Box-Jenkins Models for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.

Inventory Management and Demand Forecasting Improvement of a Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Networks

Forecasting is predicting or estimating a future event or trend.Supply chains have been constantly growing in most countries ever since the industrial revolution of the 18th century.As the competitiveness between supply chains intensifies day by day,companies are shifting their focus to predictive analytics techniques to minimize costs and boost productivity and profits.Excessive inventory(overstock)and stock outs are very significant issues for suppliers.Excessive inventory levels can lead to loss of revenue because the company's capital is tied up in excess inventory.Excess inventory can also lead to increased storage,insurance costs and labor as well as lower and degraded quality based on the nature of the product.Shortages or out of stock can lead to lost sales and a decline in customer contentment and loyalty to the store.If clients are unable to find the right products on the shelves,they may switch to another vendor or purchase alternative items.Demand forecasting is valuable for planning,scheduling and improving the coordination of all supply chain activities.This paper discusses the use of neural networks for seasonal time series forecasting.Our objective is to evaluate the contribution of the correct choice of the transfer function by proposing a new form of the transfer function to improve the quality of the forecast.

Convolutional neural networks for time series classification

Time series classification is an important task in time series data mining, and has attracted great interests and tremendous efforts during last decades. However, it remains a challenging problem due to the nature of time series data: high dimensionality, large in data size and updating continuously. The deep learning techniques are explored to improve the performance of traditional feature-based approaches. Specifically, a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) framework is proposed for time series classification. Different from other feature-based classification approaches, CNN can discover and extract the suitable internal structure to generate deep features of the input time series automatically by using convolution and pooling operations. Two groups of experiments are conducted on simulated data sets and eight groups of experiments are conducted on real-world data sets from different application domains. The final experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series classification in terms of the classification accuracy and noise tolerance. © 1990-2011 Beijing Institute of Aerospace Information.

Implementation of Neural Networks in Time Series to Generate a Portfolio of Investment in Cryptocurrencies

The present work aims to implement two types of neural networks and an analysis of a multivariate time series model of VAR type to predict the price of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin,Dash,Ethereum,Litecoin,and Ripple.This subject has been popular in recent years due to the rapid price fluctuations and the immense amount of money involved in the cryptocurrencies market.Several technologies have been developed around cryptocurrencies,with Blockchain rising as the most popular.Blockchain has been implementing other information technology projects which have helped to open a wide variety of job positions in some industries.A“New Economy”is emerging and it is important to study its basis in order to establish the pillars that help us to understand its behavior and be ready for a new era.

Effects of data smoothing and recurrent neural network(RNN)algorithms for real-time forecasting of tunnel boring machine(TBM)performance

Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.

DIAGNOSTICS OF FATIGUE CRACK IN ULTERIOR PLACES OF LARGER-SCALE OVERLOADED SUPPORTING SHAFT BASED ON TIME SERIES AND NEURAL NETWORKS

To improve the diagnosis accuracy and self-adaptability of fatigue crack in ulterior place of the supporting shaft, time series and neural network are attempted to be applied in research on diag-nosing the fatigue crack’s degree based on analyzing the vibration characteristics of the supporting shaft. By analyzing the characteristic parameter which is easy to be detected from the supporting shaft’s exterior, the time series model parameter which is hypersensitive to the situation of fatigue crack in ulterior place of the supporting shaft is the target input of neural network, and the fatigue crack’s degree value of supporting shaft is the output. The BP network model can be built and net-work can be trained after the structural parameters of network are selected. Furthermore, choosing the other two different group data can test the network. The test result will verify the validity of the BP network model. The result of experiment shows that the method of time series and neural network are effective to diagnose the occurrence and the development of the fatigue crack’s degree in ulterior place of the supporting shaft.

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using Chaotic Neural Networks

A nonlinear feedback term is introduced into the evaluation equation of weights of the backpropagation algorithm for neural network, the network becomes a chaotic one. For the purpose of that we can investigate how the different feedback terms affect the process of learning and forecasting, we use the model to forecast the nonlinear time series which is produced by Makey-Glass equation. By selecting the suitable feedback term, the system can escape from the local minima and converge to the global minimum or its approximate solutions, and the forecasting results are better than those of backpropagation algorithm.

Time Series Modeling of River Flow Using Wavelet Neural Networks

A new hybrid model which combines wavelets and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) called wavelet neural network (WNN) model was proposed in the current study and applied for time series modeling of river flow. The time series of daily river flow of the Malaprabha River basin (Karnataka state, India) were analyzed by the WNN model. The observed time series are decomposed into sub-series using discrete wavelet transform and then appropriate sub-series is used as inputs to the neural network for forecasting hydrological variables. The hybrid model (WNN) was compared with the standard ANN and AR models. The WNN model was able to provide a good fit with the observed data, especially the peak values during the testing period. The benchmark results from WNN model applications showed that the hybrid model produced better results in estimating the hydrograph properties than the latter models (ANN and AR).

Time Series Forecasting with Multiple Deep Learners: Selection from a Bayesian Network

Considering the recent developments in deep learning, it has become increasingly important to verify what methods are valid for the prediction of multivariate time-series data. In this study, we propose a novel method of time-series prediction employing multiple deep learners combined with a Bayesian network where training data is divided into clusters using K-means clustering. We decided how many clusters are the best for K-means with the Bayesian information criteria. Depending on each cluster, the multiple deep learners are trained. We used three types of deep learners: deep neural network (DNN), recurrent neural network (RNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM). A naive Bayes classifier is used to determine which deep learner is in charge of predicting a particular time-series. Our proposed method will be applied to a set of financial time-series data, the Nikkei Average Stock price, to assess the accuracy of the predictions made. Compared with the conventional method of employing a single deep learner to acquire all the data, it is demonstrated by our proposed method that F-value and accuracy are improved.

Traffic Forecasting and Planning of WiMAX under Multiple Priority Using Fuzzy Time Series Analysis

Network traffic prediction plays a fundamental role in characterizing the network performance and it is of significant interests in many network applications, such as admission control or network management. Therefore, The main idea behind this work, is the development of a WIMAX Traffic Forecasting System for predicting traffic time series based on the daily and monthly traffic data recorded (TRD) with association of feed forward multi-layer perceptron (FFMLP). The quality of forecasting WIMAX Traffic obtained by comparing different configurations of the FFMLP that consist of investigating different FFMLP model architectures and different Learning Algorithms. The decision of changing the FFMLP architecture is essentially based on prediction results to obtain the FFMLP model for flow traffic prediction model. The different configurations were tested using daily and monthly real traffic data recorded at each of the two base stations (A and B) that belongs to a Libyan WiMAX Network. We evaluate our approach with statistical measurement and a good statistic measure of FMLP indicates the performance of selected neural network configuration. The developed system indicates promising results in which it successfully network traffic prediction through daily and monthly traffic data recorded (TRD) association with artificial neural network.

Deep Learning for Financial Time Series Prediction:A State-of-the-Art Review of Standalone and HybridModels

Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions.

Multivariate time series imputation for energy data using neural networks

Multivariate time series with missing values are common in a wide range of applications,including energy data.Existing imputation methods often fail to focus on the temporal dynamics and the cross-dimensional correlation simultaneously.In this paper we propose a two-step method based on an attention model to impute missing values in multivariate energy time series.First,the underlying distribution of the missing values in the data is learned.This information is then further used to train an attention based imputation model.By learning the distribution prior to the imputation process,the model can respond flexibly to the specific characteristics of the underlying data.The developed model is applied to European energy data,obtained from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity.Using different evaluation metrics and benchmarks,the conducted experiments show that the proposed model is preferable to the benchmarks and is able to accurately impute missing values.

Forecasting Short Time Series with Missing Data by Means of Energy Associated to Series

In this work an algorithm to predict short times series with missing data by means energy associated of series using artificial neural networks (ANN) is presented. In order to give the prediction one step ahead, a comparison between this and previous work that involves a similar approach to test short time series with uncertainties on their data, indicates that a linear smoothing is a well approximation in order to employ a method for uncompleted datasets. Moreover, in function of the long- or short-term stochastic dependence of the short time series considered, the training process modifies the number of patterns and iterations in the topology according to a heuristic law, where the Hurst parameter H is related with the short times series, of which they are considered as a path of the fractional Brownian motion. The results are evaluated on high roughness time series from solutions of the Mackey-Glass Equation (MG) and cumulative monthly historical rainfall data from San Agustin, Cordoba. A comparison with ANN nonlinear filters is shown in order to see a better performance of the outcomes when the information is taken from geographical point observation.

Multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series based on co-evolutionary recurrent neural network

This paper proposes a co-evolutionary recurrent neural network （CERNN） for the multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series, it estimates the proper parameters of phase space reconstruction and optimizes the structure of recurrent neural networks by coevolutionary strategy. The searching space was separated into two subspaces and the individuals are trained in a parallel computational procedure. It can dynamically combine the embedding method with the capability of recurrent neural network to incorporate past experience due to internal recurrence. The effectiveness of CERNN is evaluated by using three benchmark chaotic time series data sets： the Lorenz series, Mackey-Glass series and real-world sun spot series. The simulation results show that CERNN improves the performances of multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series.

Time series prediction using wavelet process neural network

In the real world, the inputs of many complicated systems are time-varying functions or processes. In order to predict the outputs of these systems with high speed and accuracy, this paper proposes a time series prediction model based on the wavelet process neural network, and develops the corresponding learning algorithm based on the expansion of the orthogonal basis functions. The effectiveness of the proposed time series prediction model and its learning algorithm is proved by the Macke-Glass time series prediction, and the comparative prediction results indicate that the proposed time series prediction model based on the wavelet process neural network seems to perform well and appears suitable for using as a good tool to predict the highly complex nonlinear time series.