Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use eco-efficiency and its influencing factors in China from 2000 to 2020

Improving cultivated land use eco-efficiency(CLUE)can effectively promote agricultural sustainability,particularly in developing countries where CLUE is generally low.This study used provincial-level data from China to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of CLUE from 2000 to 2020 and identified the influencing factors of CLUE by using a panel Tobit model.In addition,given the undesirable outputs of agricultural production,we incorporated carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution into the global benchmark-undesirable output-super efficiency-slacks-based measure(GB-US-SBM)model,which combines global benchmark technology,undesirable output,super efficiency,and slacks-based measure.The results indicated that there was an upward trend in CLUE in China from 2000 to 2020,with an increase rate of 2.62%.The temporal evolution of CLUE in China could be classified into three distinct stages:a period of fluctuating decrease(2000-2007),a phase of gradual increase(2008-2014),and a period of rapid growth(2015-2020).The major grain-producing areas(MPAs)had a lower CLUE than their counterparts,namely,non-major grain-production areas(non-MPAs).The spatial agglomeration effect followed a northeast-southwest strip distribution;and the movement path of barycentre revealed a"P"shape,with Luoyang City,Henan Province,as the centre.In terms of influencing factors of CLUE,investment in science and technology played the most vital role in improving CLUE,while irrigation index had the most negative effect.It should be noted that these two influencing factors had different impacts on MPAs and non-MPAs.Therefore,relevant departments should formulate policies to enhance the level of science and technology,improve irrigation condition,and promote sustainable utilization of cultivated land.

Sustainable Intensification and Large-scale Operation of Cultivated Land Use at the Farmers’ Scale:A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.

Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,northern China

Protection and optimization of cultivated land resources are of great significance to national food security.Cultivated land conversion in northern China has increased in recent years due to the industrialization and urbanization of society.However,the assessment of cultivated land conversion in this area is insufficient,posing a potential risk to cultivated land resources.This study evaluated the evolution and spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China,and the driving factors to improve rational utilization and to protect cultivated land resources.The spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were analyzed using the cultivated land conversion index,kernel density analysis,a standard deviation ellipse model,and a geographic detector.Results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the trends in cultivated land conversion area and rate in Inner Mongolia exhibited fluctuating growth,with the total area of cultivated land conversion reaching 7307.59 km^(2) at a rate of 6.69%.Spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion was primarily concentrated in the Hetao Plain,Nengjiang Plain,Liaohe Plain,and the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration.Moreover,the standard deviational ellipse of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia exhibited a directional southwest-northeast-southwest-northeast distribution,with the northeast-southwest direction identified as the main driving force of spatial change in cultivated land conversion.Meanwhile,cultivated land conversion exhibited an increase-decrease-increase change process,indicating that spatial distribution of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia became gradually apparent within the study period.The geographic detector results further revealed that the main driving factors of cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia were the share of secondary and tertiary industries and per-unit area yield of grain,with explanatory rates of 57.00%,55.00%,and 51.00%,respectively.Additionally,improved agricultural production efficiency and the coordinated development of population urbanization and industry resulted in cultivated land conversion.Collectively,the findings of this study indicated that,from 2000 to 2020,the cultivated land conversion in Inner Mongolia was significant and fluctuated in time,and had strong spatial heterogeneity.The primary drivers of these events included the effects of agriculture,population,and social economy.

Spatio-temporal Evaluation of Multi-scale Cultivated Land System Resilience in Black Soil Region from 2000 to 2019:A Case Study of Liaoning Province,Northeast China

It is of great significance to systematically analyze the cultivated land system resilience(CLSR) for the black soil protection and national food security.The CLSR is impacted by planting structure adjustment and cultivated land quality decline,posing major hidden dangers to food security.It is urgent to evaluate the CLSR at multiple spatio-temporal scales.This study took Liaoning Province in the black soil region of Northeast China as an example.Based on the resilience theory,this study constructed the CLSR evaluation system from the input-feedback perspective at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,and used the rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation method(RSR) to analyze the key influencing factors of CLSR in Liaoning Province and its 14 cities from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:1) the time series changes of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale in Liaoning Province were similar,both showing an increasing trend.2) The CLSR in Liaoning Province presented a spatial pattern of ‘high in the west and low in the east’ at the city-scale.3) There were seven and six main influencing factors of CLSR at the provincial-scale and the city-scale,respectively.In addition to the net income per capita of rural households,other influencing factors of CLSR were different at the provincial-scale and the city-scale.The feedback factors were dominant at the provincial-scale,and the input factors and feedback factors were dominant at the city-scale.The results could provide a reference for the utilization of black soil and draw on the experience of regional agricultural planning and adjustment.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Driving Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Gonghe County

Using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land in Gonghe County, and using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to inspect the effect of driving changing on cultivated land change under different change situations. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed from the county territory scale level. At last, some corresponding policies and measures were put forward.

Dynamic of Chinas cultivated land and landcover changes of its typical regions based on remote sensing data

Using the multi-temporal Landsat data and survey data of national resources, the authors studied the dynamics of cultivated land and landcover changes of typical ecological regions in China. The results of investigation showed that the whole distribution of the cultivated land shifted to Northeast and Northwest China, and as a result, the ecological quality of cultivated land dropped down. The seacoast and cultivated land in the area of Yellow River Mouth expanded by an increasing rate of 0.73 kma-1, with a depositing rate of 2.1 kma-1. The desertification area of the dynamic of Horqin Sandy Land increased from 60.02% of the total land area in1970s to 64.82% in1980s but decreased to 54.90% in early 1990s. As to the change of North Tibet lakes, the water area of the Namu Lake decreased by 38.58 km2 from year 1970 to 1988, with a decreasing rate of 2.14 km2a-1.

Analysis to the Driving Force Model and Drives Factor on the Utilized Changes of Cultivated Land in Qinghai Lake Area

Using path analysis, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and system dynamics method to study the driving force of cultivated land in Qinghai Lake Area, and using gradually regression analysis to establish the driving force model of utilized change of cultivated land. Driving factors, action mechanism and process of utilized change of cultivated land were analyzed, and the differences during all factors were compared. The study provides some decision basis for sustainable utilization and management of land resources in Qinghai Lake Area.

Analysis of Change of Cultivated Land and Grain Production in Hunan Province

[Objective] This paper aimed at exploring the countermeasures for cultivated land protection and food security assurance and providing references for the formulation of policies related to cultivated land and grain production of the whole province.[Methods] Data of population,cultivated land,grain and others in Hunan Province during 1989 to 2008 were collected by county（district）.The changes of cultivated land and grain production of the whole province were analyzed using Geographical Information System（GIS）.[Results] The population was increasing continuously,the total area of cultivated land was reducing as a whole in spite of increasing in one or two year in one or two county,the total grain production and per capita grain yield was fluctuated within a certain range in recent 20 years of the whole province.The reducing of cultivated land was mainly due to the industrialization and urbanization development.The unbalanced quantity and quality of cultivated land,various natural disasters,readjustment of industry structure and inner readjustment in the agriculture,variety improvement and improvement of cultivated technology mainly affected of the grain production.[Conclusions] The protection of the quantity and quality of cultivated land has to be strengthened to ensure food security.It is important to enhance the ability of resisting drought and flood disasters by improving the construction of agriculture establishment in order to insure the productivity of cultivated land,to increase farmer’s enthusiasm for growing grain with favourable food policy,to improve the per unit area yield of grain by variety improvement and to increase grain sown area by enlarging the double-cropping rice sown area.

A Study on Vertical Spatial Transfer of Cultivated Land in Yunnan Province from 1986 to 2008

Based upon ArCGIS,the vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land in Yunnan was studied through referring to three periods of remote sensing data of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change（LUCC） in Yunnan in 1986,1995 and 2000,Digital Elevation Model（DEM） of Yunnan Province and LUCC data in Yunnan from 2000 to 2008.The main factors that promote vertical spatial transfer law of cultivated land were analyzed by using SPSS,and the influence of policies and government acts upon the change of cultivated land was clarified.The findings indicated that for Yunnan cultivated land there is a trend that in the vertical direction steep slope areas and gentle slope areas divert into mid-slope areas.The primary factor influencing the vertical spatial transfer of cultivated land was policies and government acts.Also,the gradient of ground,total population and number of agriculture employed persons were also main factors in influencing the change of cultivated land,whose influence was obviously below policies and government acts.

The Estimation of Cultivated Land Threshold Value in Hotan Oasis

[Objective] Water shortage is a key natural factor limiting arid economic development and ecological security.However,the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws has been speeding up water consumption,and the ecological water use which is the primary condition for maintaining ecological security was squeezed.Moreover,the fragile oasis ecosystem would be destroyed dramatically.In order to maintain ecological security,it is urgent to evaluate the threshold value of cultivated land.[Method] The method of water-soil balance was used to evaluate the threshold value of cultivated-land on the premise of allocating downstream ecological water demand.[Result] Under the frequency of 75%（P =75 for short） in Hotan River,the threshold value of cultivated-land in Hotan Oasis would be 13.83×10^4,16.78×10^4and 16.50×10^4hm^2in 2010,2020 and 2030 respectively.Under the frequency of 50%（P=50 for short）,the threshold value of cultivated land in Hotan Oasis would be 14.95 ×10^4,18.08 ×10^4and 17.78 ×10^4hm^2in 2010,2020 and 2030 respectively.If effective measures are not taken to control cultivated-land expansion,the cultivated land area will be 2.78×10^4and 5.07×10^4hm^2more than the threshold values of cultivated land at P =75 in 2020 and 2030 respectively.Even if the efficient water-saving technique are adopted,the water requirement of crop use will increase from 19.77×108to 20.82×108and 21.95×108m3during 2010-2030,and then the ecological water use cannot be guaranteed.[Conclusion] The cultivated-land expansion would threaten the ecological security in Hotan River and Tarim River.Therefore,some strict measures should be taken to protect desert-oasis ecotone,an important constituent of oasis ecosystem which has vital role in maintaining the stability of oasis,and to prohibit cultivated-land expansion.

Pattern Change and Regional Disparity Tendency of Cultivated Land Use in Jiangsu Province

The study has examined the tempo-spatial patterns of cultivated land use change in Jiangsu province. A principal component analysis （PCA） of 18 selected indicators of cultivated land use during the period 1970-2010 identified 2 main pat- terns of change in planting productivity and economic efficiency. A major shift from production-centered pattern to profit-oriented one occurred in 1984, the time of grain yield surplus and the mitigation of population pressure. In response to the impending Opened Market System, there was a notable tendency of higher efficiency and less productivity since 1997, as well as remarkable regional disparity of cultivated land use change spatially. It revealed a relative decrease in grain cropping share, crop- ping scale and cultivation intensity in South Jiangsu, especially in Tai-Lake region, and the reverse in North Jiangsu. Some suggestions for the future were finally dis- cussed from the above findings.

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Force of Cultivated Land Quality in Henan Province

The purpose of this study was to find out the spatial-temporal rules and driving force of cultivated land quality in Henan Province in the last ten years. Agricultural land grading factor evaluation was used to evaluate the cultivated land quality of 2002 and 2012 in Henan Province, and to research the change laws. Method of correlation coefficient was employed to select the driving forces affecting cultivated land quality evolution. The results indicated that the cultivated land quality in Henan Province increased slightly in the last ten years in general, and in spatial there were unchanged regions, increased regions and decreased regions. The cultivated land quality in spatial presented the trend of good becoming better, bad becoming worse, which should be highly valued in cultivated land quality protection and management. Land development and consolidation projects had significant contributions to increasing the cultivated land quality. Driving forces between the sudden change regions and gradual change regions were significantly different. The paper concluded that the research on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving force of cultivated land quality based on cultivated land quality evolution had important academic significance and practical value.

The Measurement and Grading of Pressure on Cultivated Land in City-level in Yunnan Province

For a long time pressure on cultivated land receives much concern be- cause of close relationship with food security. In Yunnan provice,natural conditions of mountain area are poor and the overall quality of cultivated land is ：not high. This paper selected state （city） level as research scale,calculated the pressure index on cultivated land of 16 states （cities） in Yunnan provice,revealed the level of tension states （cities） of cultivated land,provided basic basis for determining amount of culti- vated land of provice and states and developing the policy about cultivated land protection.The study indicated that pressure on cultivated land in Dehong belongs to ＂no pressure＂ grade,in Qujing and Baoshan belong to ＂critical pressure ＂grade,in Yuxi and Zhaotong belong to ＂moderate-pressure＂grade,in Kunming and Nujiang be- longs to ＂high-pressure＂ and in the rest 9 states belongs to ＂low-pressure＂grade.

Quantitative Simulation of Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land in Areas of Reclamation and Returning Cultivated Land to Forest or Pastures under RCPs Climate Scenarios

Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.

Arrangement of High-standard Basic Farmland Construction Based on Village-region Cultivated Land Quality Uniformity

As an important constitute of land consolidation, high-standard basic farmland construction is an important means to protect the quantity, quality and ecological environment of cultivated land. Its target not only lies in the increase of cultivated land quantity, but also the improvement of cultivated land quality, agricultural production conditions and ecosystem environments. In the present study, the quality evaluation method and construction arrangement of cultivated land were explored to facilitate the process of decision-making and implementation for high-standard basic farmland construction(HSBFC) with administrative village as the unit. Taking the land comprehensive improvement project area in Quzhou County, Handan City, Hebei Province as a case study, the whole process of the study comprised of three steps: 1) establishment of the evaluation model of cultivated land quality uniformity based on regional optimum cultivated land quality, and construction of the uniformity evaluation index system from the aspects of soil fertility quality, engineering quality, spatial quality and eco-environment quality, according to the new concept of cultivated land quality; 2) calculation of cultivated land quality uniformity by grading indicators, assigning scores and weighting sums, exploring the local homogenization characteristics of regional cultivated land quality through spatial autocorrelation analysis, and analyzing the constraints and transformative potential of barrier factors; 3) arrangement of HSBFC according to the principle of concentration, continuity and priority to the easy operation. The results revealed that the value of farmland quality uniformity for the administrative villages in the study area was between 7.76 and 21.96, and there was a difference between various administrative villages. The regional spatial autocorrelation patterns included High-High(HH), Low-Low(LL), High-Low(HL) and Low-High(LH). These indicate that regional cultivated land quality has local homogenization characteristics. The most restrictive factors in the study area were the medium and low transformation difficulty indexes, including soil organic matter content, farmland shelterbelt network density, field regularity and scale of the field. In addition, there were also high transformation difficulty indicators in some areas, such as sectional configuration. The project area was divided into four partitions: major construction area, secondary construction area, general construction area, and conditional construction area. The cultivated land area of each subarea was 1538.85 ha, 1224.27 ha, 555.93 ha, and 1666.63 ha, respectively. This comprised of 30.87%, 24.56%, 11.15% and 33.42% of the total project area, respectively. The evaluation model and index system could satisfy the evaluation of farmland quality and diagnosis of obstacle factors to facilitate the subsequent construction decision. The present study provides reference for the practice of regional HSBFC, and a new feasible idea and method for related studies.

Estimation of Land Production and Its Response to Cultivated Land Conversion in North China Plain

Food safety and its related influencing factors in China are the hot research topics currently,and cultivated land conversion is one of the significant factors influencing food safety in China.Taking the North China Plain as the study area,this paper examines the changes of cultivated land area using satellite images,estimates land productivity from 1985 to 2005 using the model of Estimation System for Land Productivity(ESLP),and analyzes the impact of cultivated land conversion on the land production.Compared with the grain yield data from statistical yearbooks,the results indicate that ESLP model is an effective tool for estimating land productivity.Land productivity in the North China Plain showed a slight decreasing trend from 1985 to 2005,spatially,increased from the north to the south gradu-ally,and the net changes varied in different areas.Cultivated land area recorded a marginal decrease of 8.0 × 105 ha,mainly converted to other land uses.Cultivated land conversion had more significant negative impacts on land produc-tion than land productivity did.Land production decreased by about 6.48 × 106 t caused by cultivated land conversion between 1985 and 2005,accounting for 91.9% of the total land production reduction.Although the land productivity increased in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces,it can not offset the overall adverse effects caused by cultivated land con-version.Therefore,there are significant meanings to control the cultivated land conversion and improve the land pro-ductivity for ensuring the land production in the North China Plain.

Changes in cultivated land patterns and driving forces in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, from 1992 to 2015

Changes of cultivated land patterns caused by major water conservation projects are rarely reported. We selected the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China to study the change in area and landscape pattern of the cultivated land in the head,central, and tail areas of the reservoir that took place between 1992 and 2015;we then studied the spatial distribution of the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir;finally, we studied the driving forces behind the changes in the cultivated land. The results derived are as follows.(1) During the construction of the Three Gorges Project(TGP, 1992–2015), the area of cultivated land around the reservoir decreased by30.23 million ha. This reduction occurred in phases:the most severe change in cultivated land occurred during the later stage of the project(2002–2010);only 0.62 million ha of cultivated land did not change between 1992 and 2015.(2) Spatial pattern analysis showed that the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir changed from a northern distribution to a southern distribution;thus, the area of cultivated land in the north decreased over the time period. The area of cultivated land in the head and tail areas decreased by varying degrees, while it increased in the central area over the 23 years, indicating that the change in cultivated land showed regional differences.(3) The TGP, the policy of reverting farmland to forest,and urbanization were the main driving factors for the change of cultivated land, but there were differences in their impacts at different stages.(4) According to the patch dynamics of the land cover change, the degree of change gradually intensified during the early and later stages of the project and then stabilized during the operational period. Our research provides scientific support for the protection of cultivated land resources and food security in the reservoir area and for the coordination of social and economic development, which is of great significance to sustainable development in the reservoir area.

Classification and Gradation of Cultivated Land Quality in Bishan County of Chongqing, China

The conflicts among food security, economic development and ecological protection are the “sticking point” of undeveloped southwestern mountainous areas of China. The objectives of this study are to identify appropriate inte- grated indicators influencing the classification and gradation of cultivated land quality in the southwestern mountainous area of China based on semi-structure interview, and to promote the monitoring of cultivated land quality in this region. Taking Bishan County of Chongqing as a study case, the integrated indicators involve the productivity, protection, ac- ceptability, and stability of cultivated land. The integrated indicators accord with the characteristics of land resources and human preference in southwestern mountainous area of China. In different agricultural zones, we emphasize different indicators, such as emphasizing productivity, stabilization and acceptability in low hilly and plain agricultural integrative zone (LHP-AIZ), protection, productivity and stability in low mountain and hill agro-forestry ecological zone (LMH-AEZ), and acceptability in plain outskirts integrative agricultural zone (PO-IAZ), respectively. The pronounced difference of classification and gradation of cultivated land, regardless of inter-region or intra-region, is observed, with the reducible rank from PO-IAZ, LHP-AIZ to LMH-AEZ. Research results accord with the characteristics of assets management and intensive utilization of cultivated land resources in the southwestern mountainous area of China. Semi-structure interview adequately presents the principal agent of farmers in agricultural land use and rural land market. This method is very effective and feasible to obtain data of the quality of cultivated land in the southwestern mountainous area of China.

Understanding cultivated land dynamics and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001

Based on the long-term serial NOAA/NDVI dataset during 1983-1999 and SPOT/VGT dataset in 2001, the land use/cover change information in the 13 provinces of northern China was extracted based on the analysis of the cultivated landscape characteristics at first, then the effects of human activities on cultivated land process were explored by GIS and the driving forces of cultivated land change were investigated. The conclusions can be drawn as follows： （1） The constant increase of weak ecological function land as desert and cultivated land and the decrease of the ecological function land of forest and shrub were the main characteristics of the land use/cover change in the 13 provinces from 1983 to 1999, which showed the effects on the ecological adjustment fimction. However, such situations were changed to some extent in the 2000s because of the eco-construction policy of the government. （2） From 1983 to 2001, the Barycenter of cultivated land tended to move from northeast to southwest with the topography and transportation situations being the main influences on the cultivated land distribution. It is found that the cultivated land use intensity decreased noticably with the increase of distance from the main communication arteries. （3） The improvement of the people＇s living standard is closely related with the cultivated land change. The structural adjustment in the agricultural land caused by economic development and the improvement of the people＇s living standard ig an important factor affecting the cultivated land change in northern China from 1983 to 2001

Change of Cultivated Land and Its Implications on Food Security in China

The population growth and demand for high living standard not only increase food demand but also cause more loss of the limited cultivated land resources. Cultivated land loss caused by disasters and the implementation of the ＂Conversion of Cropland to Forest or Grassland＂ project make this situation even worse in China. Thus, there is a problem to be solved imminently that to what extent the cultivated land can guarantee food security of China. Based on time-series data on food production and cultivated land area from 1989 to 2003 and other research results, this paper constructs quality index of cultivated land according to different land quality. Regression models are adopted to predicate changes of main factors from 2004 to 2030, which have great effect on cultivated land area or grain productivity, and verify accuracy with coc^cient of determination （R2）. Nine results were got according to three scenarios of decreasing rate of population growth rate and three cases of urban and rural built-up area per capita. There results show that China＇s food supply can only be maintained at a low to middle level of 370-410kg per capita, that is, China has enough land productivity to meet primary demand of food independently. However, it cannot reach the safe target of 500kg per capita if there is no breakthrough in breeding or no remarkable improvement of irrigation works, when the grain self-sufficiency maintains no less than 80%. To breed productive crops and to improve land productivity by mefiorating low quality cultivated land are appropriate measures to shrink the gap between food demand and supply. The results may offer helpful information for the formulation of policies on population growth, land use, protection of cultivated land.