Glaciers in the upstream Mania Reservoir in the Nianchu River Basin are crucial for agriculture and hydropower in the ＂One River and Two Streams＂ area. Rising temperature has caused widespread retreat of glaciers on...Glaciers in the upstream Mania Reservoir in the Nianchu River Basin are crucial for agriculture and hydropower in the ＂One River and Two Streams＂ area. Rising temperature has caused widespread retreat of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau during the last few decades. In this study, glacier variations under climate change in the Nianchu River Basin are quantified and their influence are evaluated by analyzing 1980 aerial topographic maps, 1990 Landsat TM, 2000 Landsat ETM＋, and 2005 CBERS remotely sensed images. It is found that from 1980 to 2005, the debris-free glacier area shrank by 7.3% （13.42 kin2）. Glacier shrinkage will have a positive effect on agriculture, hydropower and eco-environment in the near future. However, because the large number of small glaciers （〈2 km2） will rapidly retreat and disappear in future years, melt water will decrease, ultimately resulting in a long term water shortage. Glacial lakes exhibited rapid expansion due to accelerating glacier retreat during 19802005, increasing the possibility of glacial lake outbtwst floods.展开更多
为准确进行西藏年楚河流域未来土地利用模拟,对比分析了FLUS模型(Future Land Use Simulation Model)和PLUS模型(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)在该流域LUCC(土地利用(Land use)/土地覆盖变化(Land cover change))模拟...为准确进行西藏年楚河流域未来土地利用模拟,对比分析了FLUS模型(Future Land Use Simulation Model)和PLUS模型(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)在该流域LUCC(土地利用(Land use)/土地覆盖变化(Land cover change))模拟的结果,并在此基础上开展了研究区2030年的土地利用模拟应用。结果表明:(1)采用本地化参数的FLUS模型获得的模拟结果与真实数据的Kappa系数(0.6350)、FOM系数(0.0800)以及模拟图像的总体精度(0.8240)均优于PLUS模型模拟的结果,表明FLUS模型在研究区具有更好的适用性;(2)依据过去的土地利用变化数据对模型的领域权重和转移矩阵参数进行本地化处理,可提高模拟结果与真实数据的Kappa系数,有助于增强模型在区域的适用性;(3)基于FLUS模型的2030年年楚河流域土地利用模拟结果显示,该区域草地、湿地与水体面积将继续减少,耕地、城市、未利用土地、积雪与冰川将增加,林地变化不大,其中,最主要的土地利用变化由草地变为未利用土地。展开更多
基金supported by the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teamsthe External Cooperation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. GJHZ0960)
文摘Glaciers in the upstream Mania Reservoir in the Nianchu River Basin are crucial for agriculture and hydropower in the ＂One River and Two Streams＂ area. Rising temperature has caused widespread retreat of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau during the last few decades. In this study, glacier variations under climate change in the Nianchu River Basin are quantified and their influence are evaluated by analyzing 1980 aerial topographic maps, 1990 Landsat TM, 2000 Landsat ETM＋, and 2005 CBERS remotely sensed images. It is found that from 1980 to 2005, the debris-free glacier area shrank by 7.3% （13.42 kin2）. Glacier shrinkage will have a positive effect on agriculture, hydropower and eco-environment in the near future. However, because the large number of small glaciers （〈2 km2） will rapidly retreat and disappear in future years, melt water will decrease, ultimately resulting in a long term water shortage. Glacial lakes exhibited rapid expansion due to accelerating glacier retreat during 19802005, increasing the possibility of glacial lake outbtwst floods.
文摘为准确进行西藏年楚河流域未来土地利用模拟,对比分析了FLUS模型(Future Land Use Simulation Model)和PLUS模型(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)在该流域LUCC(土地利用(Land use)/土地覆盖变化(Land cover change))模拟的结果,并在此基础上开展了研究区2030年的土地利用模拟应用。结果表明:(1)采用本地化参数的FLUS模型获得的模拟结果与真实数据的Kappa系数(0.6350)、FOM系数(0.0800)以及模拟图像的总体精度(0.8240)均优于PLUS模型模拟的结果,表明FLUS模型在研究区具有更好的适用性;(2)依据过去的土地利用变化数据对模型的领域权重和转移矩阵参数进行本地化处理,可提高模拟结果与真实数据的Kappa系数,有助于增强模型在区域的适用性;(3)基于FLUS模型的2030年年楚河流域土地利用模拟结果显示,该区域草地、湿地与水体面积将继续减少,耕地、城市、未利用土地、积雪与冰川将增加,林地变化不大,其中,最主要的土地利用变化由草地变为未利用土地。
