The periodic solution to a delayed sea-air oscillator coupling model for the El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）

A time-delay sea-air oscillator coupling model is studied. Using Mawhin＇s continuation theorem, the result on the existence of periodic solutions for the sea-air oscillator model is obtained.

末次冰期以来印尼穿越流出口处古海洋学记录及其意义

印尼穿越流作为连接西太平洋和印度洋的唯一通道,调节着这两个大洋之间的热量和水汽的交换,继而在热带乃至全球气候变化中扮演着重要的角色。本文对来自于帝汶海内印尼穿越流出口处SO18460钻孔中浮游有孔虫Globigerinoides ruber和Pulleniatina obliquiloculata壳体的Mg/Ca比值和氧同位素进行再分析,重建了末次冰期以来表层和温跃层海水温度、盐度以及温跃层深度的变化,并将其与区域古气候记录对比以探讨其意义。结果表明,末次冰期以来,SO18460孔的表层和温跃层海水盐度均与区域降雨量记录变化一致,显示降雨信号以海水盐度的形式通过水体混合由表层向温跃层的传输。自早全新世以来,SO18460孔的表层海水温度在28℃左右波动,可能是受西太平洋暖池的影响;同时,温跃层海水温度始终低于22℃可能指示厄尔尼诺-南方涛动处于类厄尔尼诺状态;而温跃层海水温度持续下降、温跃层深度持续变浅,一方面可能是对早全新世以来类厄尔尼诺事件频发的响应,另一方面也可能归因于热带辐合带的南向移动导致区域降雨增加、以及东亚冬季风驱使南海表层流的加强等因素对印尼穿越流表层流的抑制。冰期-间冰期尺度上,SO18460孔温跃层海水温度与北半球夏季太阳辐射量变化步幅一致,可能是北太平洋热带水借助棉兰老岛流在苏拉威西海混入印尼穿越流所致。

高低层纬向风切变的年际变率及气候学意义

用1959-1998共40年全球格点风场资料计算了200 hPa与850 hPa的纬向风速差,即对流层纬向风切变（简称TZWS）,并在此基础上得到其距平值。为了全面考察对流层中环流异常的年际变率特征,根据TZWS的标准差分布,文中选出了7个TZWS标准差数值大于5 m/s的代表性区域。这7个区域分别位于赤道中太平洋、赤道东太平洋、北太平洋亚热带地区、南太平洋亚热带地区、赤道大西洋、亚洲西南部以及东北部。前5个分别位于赤道、亚热带太平洋和大西洋的区域TZWS指数,其年际变率与ENSO循环有密切联系,反映了热带海洋温度异常对低纬度地区对流层环流的影响;后2个区域的TZWS指数反映的是亚洲西南部和东北部的气候统变率,在年际时间尺度上与ENSO循环有着明显的区别。通过对全球陆地降水和温度场的分析,比较了热带、副热带的TZWS指数以及北极涛动指数的异同,发现后2个区域TZWS指数能很好且能独立反映出北半球中高纬度地区陆地降水及陆地温度的异常模态。

The homotopic mapping method for sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations

The E1 Nifio/La Nifia Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, a coupled system of sea-air oscillator model is studied. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method of nonlinear equation for the ENSO model. And based on a class of oscillators of ENSO model, employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of corresponding problem is studied. It is proven from the results that the homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for ENSO model.

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation cycle simulated by the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences

On the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS-ESM-C） in simulating the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） cycle is evalu- ated, including the onset, development and decay of the ENSO. It is shown that, the model can reasonably simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in the tropical Pacif- ic, as well as the seasonal phase-locking of the ENSO. The model also captures two prerequisites for the E1 Nino onset, i.e., a westerly anomaly and a warm SST anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific. Owing to too strong forcing from an extratropical meridional wind, however, the westerly anomaly in this region is largely overestimated. Moreover, the simulated thermocline is much shallower with a weaker slope. As a result, the warm SST anomaly from the western Pacific propagates eastward more quickly, leading to a faster develop- ment of an E1 Nino. During the decay stage, owing to a stronger E1Nino in the model, the secondary Gill-type response of the tropical atmosphere to the eastern Pacific warming is much stronger, thereby resulting in a persistent easterly anomaly in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, a cold anomaly in the warm pool appears as a result of a lifted thermocline via Ekman pumping. Finally, an E1 Nino decays into a La Nina through their interactions. In addition, the shorter period and larger amplitude of the ENSO in the model can be attribut- ed to a shallower thermocline in the equatorial Pacific, which speeds up the zonal redistribution of a heat content in the upper ocean.

副热带圈和赤道太平洋SST的海—气振子模型

研究了一个海—气振子模型的时滞方程的模型．利用变分迭代原理,首先构造了相应的泛函,选取其Lagrange乘子,再采用迭代方法,最后得到了海一气振子模型解的近似式．

Seasonal Evolution of Dominant Modes in South Pacific SST and Relationship with ENSO

A season-reliant empirical orthogonal function （S-EOF） analysis was applied to the seasonal mean SST anomalies （SSTAs） based on the HadISST1 dataset with linear trend removed at every grid point in the South Pacific （60.5°-19.5°S, 139.5°E-60.5°W） during the period 1979-2009. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the dominant modes and their relationships with ENSO were analyzed. The results show that there are two seasonally evolving dominant modes of SSTAs in the South Pacific with interannual and interdeeadal variations; they account for nearly 40% of the total variance. Although the seasonal evolution of spatial patterns of the first S-EOF mode （S-EOF1） did not show remarkable propagation, it decays with season remarkably. The second S-EOF mode （S-EOF2） showed significant seasonal evolution and intensified with season, with distinct characteristics of eastward propagation of the negative SSTAs in southern New Zealand and positive SSTAs southeast of Australia. Both of these two modes have significant relationships with ENSO. These two modes correspond to the post-ENSO and ENSO turnabout years, respectively. The S- EOF1 mode associated with the decay of the eastern Pacific （EP） and the central Pacific （CP） types of ENSO exhibited a more significant relationship with the EP/CP type of E1 Nifio than that with the EP/CP type of La Nifia. The S-EOF2 mode contacted with the EP type of E1 Nifio changing into the EP/CP type of La Nifia showed a more significant connection with the EP/CP type of La Nifia.

Impact of observational MJO forcing on ENSO predictability in the Zebiak-Cane model: PartⅠ.Effect on the maximum prediction error

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation （MJO） as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform （CWT） and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation （CNOP） method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nifio 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.

The sea-air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and equatorial Pacific SST

In this paper a time delay equation for sea-air oscillator model is studied. The aim is to create an approximate solving method of nonlinear equation for sea-air oscillator model. Employing the method of variational iteration, it obtains the approximate solution of corresponding equation. This method is an approximate analytic method, which can be often used for analysing other behaviour of the sea surface temperature anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillator model.

Air-sea interactions associated with tropospheric biennial oscillation in South China Sea summer monsoon and their effects on El Nio-Southern Oscillation

The South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） behaves with prominent climate variability from the in- traseasonal to interdecadal time scales. On the interannual time scale, the biennial variability （so-called tropospheric biennial oscillation, TBO） is as important as the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） period. Some observed data sets, including reanalysis data, are used to explore the associated air-sea interactive physical processes and how the SCSSM TBO affects the ENSO. The results show that the shearing vorticity induced by the north Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） and the anomalous Philip- pine Sea anticyclone both contribute to the TBO in the SCSSM. The results also indicate that the ENSO has a weak effect on the SCSSM TBO, whereas the latter affects the ENSO to some extent.

南印度洋偶极子的变化特征及其与ENSO事件的联系

利用Hadley Center逐月海温资料以及NCEP/NCAR逐月风场、海平面气压场等资料探讨了南印度洋偶极子(Southern Indian Ocean Dipole,SIOD)的变化特征及其与ENSO事件的联系。结果表明:1)发生在南半球副热带印度洋地区的海温异常西南—东北反相的南印度洋偶极子现象,具有明显的季节锁相特征:10—12月发生发展,次年1—3月发展成熟达到盛期,4—6月减弱消亡;SIOD的形成主要受大尺度大气环流的影响,马斯克林高压以及澳大利亚低(高)压位置和强度的变化引起的副热带印度洋海表面风场的异常,影响了海温的变化,进而形成SIOD。2)南半球副热带印度洋地区的海温变化与赤道中东太平洋地区海温异常密切联系,前冬ENSO事件与SIOD有显著的负相关关系,大多数正SIOD发生在La Ni?a事件之后,大多数负SIOD发生在El Ni?o事件之后;也存在部分SIOD事件的发生既不伴随La Ni?a现象,也不伴随El Ni?o现象。3)ENSO事件产生的异常垂直运动和赤道异常纬向风对南半球副热带印度洋地区的海平面气压以及海表面风场的强度和位置的变化有重要作用,可以分别影响SIOD东西极子的演变,进而对SIOD产生影响。4)SIOD事件也可单独发生,一般负事件比正事件早一个月发生,同时由于没有ENSO事件的作用,海温异常反相的现象不能持续,单独发生的SIOD事件生命期较短。

Disturbed solution of the El Nio-southern oscillation sea-air delayed oscillator

A class of delayed oscillators of El Nifio-southern oscillation （ENSO） models is considered. Using the delayed theory, the perturbed theory and other methods, the asymptotic expansions of the solutions for ENSO models are obtained and the asymptotic behaviour of solution of corresponding problem is studied.

Perturbed Solving Method for Interdecadal Sea-air Oscillator Model

A coupled system of the interdecadal sea-air oscillator model is studied.The El Nio-southern oscillation(ENSO) atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions.The oscillator model is involved with the variations of both the eastern and western Pacific anomaly pat-terns.This paper proposes an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method of the perturbation theory.The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method for the ENSO model.Employing the perturbed method,the asymptotic solution of corresponding problem is obtained,and the asymptotic behaviour of the solution is studied.Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature anomaly and related physical quantities.

Interannual variability of transport and bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current in the tropical North Pacific Ocean

The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) to the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height (SSH) observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During El Nio/La Ni a years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15°N, 130°E-160°E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.

Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China＇s rice production

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi＇s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO＇s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China＇s rice production is less climate-sensitive.

Existence and asymptotic estimates of periodic solutions of a sea-air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and equatorial Pacific SST

This paper studies a time delay equation for sea-air oscillator model. The existence and asymptotic estimates of periodic solutions of corresponding problem are obtained by employing the technique of upper and lower solution, and by using the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory.

Relationships of Interannual Variability Between the Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 Models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature (SST) between the tropical Pacific (TP) and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOB) together with their seasonal phase lock features being simu-lated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (cooling) takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an El Nio (La Nia) in al-most all the models. In some models (e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5), positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the nega-tive events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models (e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES).

Homotopic method of solving a class of EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation sea-air oscillator

The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is created. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the method of homotopic mapping. It is proved from the results that the homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.

Why does the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappear in some decades?

Lag correlations between sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean(STIO) in fall and Nio 3.4 SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific in the following fall are subjected to decadal variation,with positive correlations during some decades and negative correlations during others. Negative correlations are smaller and of shorter duration than positive correlations. Variations in lag correlations suggest that the use of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) as a predictor of the El Nio Southern Oscillation(ENSO) at a lead time of one year is not effective during some decades. In this study,lag correlations between IOD and ENSO anomalies were analyzed to investigate why the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappears during decades with negative correlations. Anomalies induced by the IOD in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations are still present,but at a greater depth than in decades with positive correlations,resulting in a lack of response to oceanic channel dynamics in the cold tongue SSTA. Lag correlations between oceanic anomalies in the west Pacific warm pool in fall and the equatorial Pacific cold tongue with a one-year time lag are significantly positive during decades with negative correlations. These results suggest that oceanic channel dynamics are overwhelmed by oceanatmosphere coupling over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations. Therefore,the Indonesian throughflow is not effective as a link between IOD signals and the equatorial Pacific ENSO.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year(1993–2010) National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature(SST) and simple ocean data assimilation datasets,this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies(SSTAs) that occurred in the South China Sea(SCS) during the mature phase of the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation.The most dominant characteristic was that of the outof-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS,which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection.The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during El Ni?o episodes.Conversely,it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during El Ni?o episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.