The coordinated evolution of ecological environment,public service,and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt,using the Dual-Carbon Targets

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality(dual-carbon)are important targets for the international response to climate change.The Silk Road Economic Belt is a strategic resource region and is important for future ecological environment and tourism development.Based on the“dual-carbon”targets,the Single index quantification,Multiple index synthesis,and Poly-criteria integration evaluation model were used in this study to measure the coordinated development index of the ecological environment,public service,and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt and to analyze its spatial and temporal evolution.Further,it explores the dynamic evolution and development trend of the three systems using the Kernel Density and Grey Markov Prediction Model.The results show that the coordinated development index along this region needs to be improved during the study period.Furthermore,the coordinated development index of the Southwest region is relatively higher than that of the Northwest region.From the development trend of the three systems,all of them develop in a stable manner;however,the tourism economy system is easily affected by external disturbances.The coordinated development index of the three systems changes dynamically and tends to be in a good state of coordination.There is a certain spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The gravity center of the coordinated development index has been in the Southwest region.During the forecast period,the coordinated development index along this region will improve significantly,while insufficient and unbalanced development will continue.

Temporal and spatial responses of ecological resilience to climate change and human activities in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China

In the Anthropocene era,human activities have become increasingly complex and diversified.The natural ecosystems need higher ecological resilience to ensure regional sustainable development due to rapid urbanization and industrialization as well as other intensified human activities,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.In the study,we chose the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains(EBNSTM)in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China as a case study.By collecting geographic data and statistical data from 2010 and 2020,we constructed an ecological resilience assessment model based on the ecosystem habitat quality(EHQ),ecosystem landscape stability(ELS),and ecosystem service value(ESV).Further,we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ecological resilience in the EBNSTM from 2010 to 2020 by spatial autocorrelation analysis,and explored its responses to climate change and human activities using the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model.The results showed that the ecological resilience of the EBNSTM was at a low level and increased from 0.2732 to 0.2773 during 2010–2020.The spatial autocorrelation analysis of ecological resilience exhibited a spatial heterogeneity characteristic of"high in the western region and low in the eastern region",and the spatial clustering trend was enhanced during the study period.Desert,Gobi and rapidly urbanized areas showed low level of ecological resilience,and oasis and mountain areas exhibited high level of ecological resilience.Climate factors had an important impact on ecological resilience.Specifically,average annual temperature and annual precipitation were the key climate factors that improved ecological resilience,while average annual evapotranspiration was the main factor that blocked ecological resilience.Among the human activity factors,the distance from the main road showed a negative correlation with ecological resilience.Both night light index and PM2.5 concentration were negatively correlated with ecological resilience in the areas with better ecological conditions,whereas in the areas with poorer ecological conditions,the correlations were positive.The research findings could provide a scientific reference for protecting the ecological environment and promoting the harmony and stability of the human-land relationship in arid and semi-arid areas.

The Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Spatio-temporal Dynamic Evolution of Tourism Ecological Security in the Silk Road Economic Belt

The exploration of ecological safety in tourism sites can provide a concrete path for sustainable tourism development in a region.Based on the“Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response”(DPSIR)model,we constructed an index system for the evaluation of tourism ecological security(TES)in the Silk Road Economic Belt(SREB)from 2005 to 2020.This index system was used to explore the characteristics of spatial and temporal dynamic evolution with the help of entropy weight TOPSIS method,dynamic index of TES and Markov probability transfer matrix,and a standard deviational ellipse(SDE)model and GM(1,1)model were constructed for spatial pattern analysis and prediction.The results indicate four key aspects of this system.(1)In terms of spatiotemporal evolution,the tourism ecological safety index(TESI)of the SREB increased,the TES levels of the northwestern and southwestern provinces and cities differed significantly,and the quality conditions of TES in the southwestern provinces and cities were better than in the northwest.(2)In terms of dynamic evolutionary characteristics,the speed of change at each level of the SREB was slow,but the level of TES has improved.The TES level has not shifted by leaps and bounds,and the shifts in the level type show“path dependence”and“self-locking”effects.(3)In terms of spatial and temporal distribution patterns,the spatial pattern of TES in the SREB is a“northwest-southeast”movement trend,and the spatial distribution appeared as“aggregation”from 2005 to 2020.The prediction results show that the center of gravity of TES in the SREB will shift to the southeast from 2025 to 2035,and the spatial spillover effect will be reduced.(4)In terms of driving factors,the number of star-rated hotels,and the amounts of industrial wastewater emissions,tourism foreign exchange earnings,forest coverage,and other parameters are the key factors affecting TES,and the booming tourism industry requires the interconnection and interpenetration of various factors.The results of this study can provide a reference for tourism development and ecological environmental protection in the Silk Road Economic Belt.

The Ecological Effects of Young Elm Trees Belt-Pumpkin Strip Intercropping System at the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in Northern China

Young elm trees belt-pumpkin strip intercropping was studied to solve the actual problem of resource losses in the large barren area resulted from reconverting cultivated land into forest in the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China. The final objective was to realize effective utilization of the barren land with both ecological improvement and economic development. Field experiments were conducted together with laboratory analysis. The results indicated that the soil moisture level was remarkably increased in young elm trees belt-pumpkin strip intereropping because the pumpkin vines covered the gap between pumpkin planting-furrow and elm trees belt. The water use efficiency of the intercropping system was increased by 23.7-163.3% as compared with the single cropping. Elm trees belt-pumpkin strip intercropping changed the sequential succession trend of the grasses growing in the gap of the pumpkin planting-furrow. The annual grasses become the dominant vegetation. The nutritive value as fodder and yield of the annual grasses were also increased remarkably. The biomass of pumpkin, elm trees and grasses under intercropping increased by 24.4, 28.4 and 144.4%, respectively, as compared with those under single cropping. The land use efficiency was increased by 132%. It was also indicated that the soil erosion from the intercropping land was not increased due to pumpkin plantation. The differences in the soil erosion among intercropped area, elm trees belt and pumpkin strip with single cropping were not remarkable. Therefore, it was concluded that young elm trees belt-pumpkin strip intercropping is an effective way to utilize the barren land between the young elm trees belt and realize synergistic enhancement of ecological benefit and economic profit.

Simulation and prediction of multi-scenario evolution of ecological space based on FLUS model: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional economic development but also for regional ecological security and ecological progress in this region.This paper takes the ecological space of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,based on land use data in 2010 and 2015,and uses the FLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological space of the research area in 2035.The variation of the research area’s ecological space area and its four sub-zones has remarkable stability under diverse situations.Both the production space priority scenarios(S1)and living space priority scenarios(S2)saw a fall in ecological space area,with the former experiencing the highest reduction(a total reduction of 25,212 km^(2)).Under the ecological space priority scenarios(S3)and comprehensive space optimization scenario(S4),the ecological space area increased,and the ecological space area expanded even more under the former scenario(a total growth of 23,648 km^(2)).In Yunnan-Guizhou,the ecological space is relatively stable,with minimal signs of change.In Sichuan-Chongqing,the Sichuan Basin,Zoige Grassland,and Longmen Mountains were significant regions of area changes in ecological space.In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the ecological space changes mainly occur in the Wuyi Mountains,Mufu Mountains,and Dabie Mountains,as well as the surrounding waters of Dongting Lake.The Yangtze River Delta’s changes were mainly observed in the eastern Dabie Mountains and Jianghuai Hills.

Regional Ecological Vulnerability Assessment of the Guangxi Xijiang River Economic Belt in Southwest China with VSD Model

The interactive effects of natural and human factors on ecosystems have been well studied, and the quantitative assessment of large-scale ecological vulnerability caused by natural and human factors is now one of the most active topics in the ifeld. Taking the Guangxi Xijiang River Economic Belt in southwest China （GXEB） as a case study, we assess ecological vulnerability based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram （VSD） model. The indices system is decomposed into three sub objects, ten elements and 25 indicators layer by layer, which included factors from both natural and human ifelds. Results indicate that zones with lower, middle-lower, middle, middle-higher and higher vulnerability account for 11.31%, 22.63%, 27.60%, 24.39%, and 14.07%, respectively. The western and eastern parts of GXEB are more vulnerable than the central part and the mountain and urban areas are of higher vulnerability than the basins and river valleys. Compared with a vulnerability assessment based on natural factors only, it is concluded that human activities indeed cause the transition from naturally stable zones to vulnerable zones. The nature-dominated vulnerable zones are different with human-dominated ones in size and distribution, the latter being smaller, more scattered and distributed in urban areas and their surroundings. About 53%of total construction land is distributed in zones with middle and middle-higher ecological vulnerability;less vulnerable zones should attract construction in the future. Relevant suggestions are proposed on how to reduce vulnerability according to inducing factors. The VSD model has a signiifcant advantage in the quantitative evaluation of ecological vulnerability, but is insufficient to distinguish nature- or human-dominated vulnerability quantitatively.

长江经济带生态文明建设水平变化特征与影响因素分析

长江经济带生态文明建设水平的高低关系到长江流域绿色协调发展能力,深刻影响我国生态安全格局。从生态经济、生态环境、生态社会3个层面构建评价指标体系,使用改进TOPSIS方法模型测算长江经济带生态文明建设水平,利用地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析其影响因子。研究结果表明:(1)在2011—2020年,长江经济带生态文明建设水平整体上呈上升趋势,由东向西沿轴线逐步扩散。(2)各子系统建设水平异质性特征显著,生态经济建设水平东部高于西部,以长江下游地区和省会城市为核心向周围辐射发展;生态环境水平在各省会及其周边城市增长较快,而工业发展型城市有不同程度的降低。生态社会水平高值区集中分布在江浙沪地区,低值区分散分布于中上游各省会城市。(3)地形、常住人口城镇化水平、第三产业占比、恩格尔系数、科技财政支出占比均正向影响了研究区生态文明建设水平,每万人在校大学生数对生态文明建设水平呈弱负相关。

长江经济带水生态环境治理区域协同立法的检视及完善途径

为充分发挥法律对区域环境发展和利益协调的保障作用,基于长江经济带水生态环境治理现状对部分省市已出台的相关规范性文本进行了梳理。结果表明,各地采取的立法模式主要以松散型立法模式为主,尚存在松散型立法模式与水生态环境治理需求不匹配、区域间主体协调机制未建立、协同立法后评估和清理工作机制不完善等问题。因此提出了将现有的松散型立法模式转变为紧密型立法模式,构建区域协同立法利益协调机制和完备协同立法后评估和清理机制等长江经济带水生态环境治理区域协同立法的完善路径。

基于改进三维生态足迹模型的珠江—西江经济带生态补偿价值测度及分区研究

生态补偿机制构建难点在于厘清补偿主客体、评估补偿优先时序及精准测算补偿标准,构建科学有效的生态补偿机制有助于流域上下游生态保护责任合理分配。本文以珠江—西江经济带地级市为研究单元,将改进三维生态足迹模型与生态系统服务价值估算相结合,测度2005—2020年各市生态补偿价值与标准,引入生态补偿优先级,最终划定优先支付、潜力支付、平衡、潜力受偿及优先受偿5类分区。结果表明:1)2020年经济带生态补偿赤字为288.09亿元,广州支付价值最高为185.14亿元,人均生态补偿标准为987.92元,仅崇左获生态补偿,受偿价值为0.68亿元,人均受偿标准为32.62元。2)广州、佛山与南宁长期为优先支付区;崇左长期为优先受偿区;肇庆、柳州及百色近年转为潜力支付区;来宾、贵港、梧州与云浮为平衡区;经济带优先受偿区与潜力受偿区逐步转为优先支付区、潜力支付区与平衡区。3)广州、佛山及南宁应率先支付生态补偿平衡经济带区际生态保护责任,协调区际生态保护共治关系;应优先给予崇左生态补偿以实现生态保护受益,获得生态环境治理的经济支持。

淮河生态经济带安徽段粮食生产时空演化及其驱动力分析

淮河流域是我国三大商品粮生产基地之一,优化其粮食生产格局对于保障中国粮食安全具有重要意义。基于比较优势理论测度淮河生态经济带安徽段50个区县2006—2020年的粮食生产优势,并采用ESDA模型、地理探测器模型分析其时空分异及其影响因素。研究表明:水稻的优势区域多数为规模主导型,小麦、玉米的生产区域普遍具有综合比较优势且分布逐渐向淮河以北地区聚集,种植面积的减少使豆类部分优势区域变为劣势区域;主要粮食作物的生产比较优势具有较强的空间自相关性,其中水稻、小麦比较优势指数的空间聚集情况较为稳定,玉米的高值聚集区分布由“双核心”变为“带状”,而豆类恰好相反,两种作物呈“竞争”态势。此外,早期区域粮食生产优势与灌溉水平高度相关;年降水量与水资源总量解释力逐年增强且成为决定性因素,表明粮食生产布局与自然资源条件的匹配程度有所提高;农民可支配收入解释力处于低位状态且逐年减弱,反映粮食生产的优势区域农户收入反而较低,粮食生产与农民可支配收入“脱钩”程度加剧。

粮食安全与生态可持续耦合协调研究——以长江经济带为例

基于2006—2020年长江经济带省际面板数据,构建粮食安全与生态可持续评价指标体系,利用熵值法测算长江经济带两系统的综合发展水平,运用耦合协调度与障碍度模型分析粮食与生态的耦合协调特征及其障碍因子。结果表明:(1)2006—2020年长江经济带粮食安全综合指数持续上升,生态可持续综合指数波动上升。(2)两系统耦合协调度呈良性增长趋势,表现为“西高东低”的空间分布特征且空间聚集性不断增强。(3)当年造林面积、城市污水日处理能力、居民人均可支配收入、地方财政环境保护支出和财政支农等是制约长江经济带粮食生态协调发展的主要障碍因子。

农村产业融合对生态环境的多维影响效应研究——以长江经济带为例

研究农村产业融合对农村生态环境的多维影响,有利于探索更加环保和可持续的农村产业融合发展模式,为实现农村经济的绿色发展、保护和改善农村生态环境,推动农村经济的可持续发展提供有力支持。在农村产业融合对生态环境的多维作用机理分析基础上,以长江经济带为例,基于2006—2020年长江经济带11个省(市)面板数据,运用熵权法测算农村产业融合与农村生态环境的水平,并实证检验了农村产业融合及其不同模式对农村生态环境的直接效应,以及人力资本、城镇化和农村经济增长在其中的调节效应与中介效应。研究发现,2006—2020年长江经济带全流域的农村产业融合及农村生态环境水平呈稳步增长态势,农村产业融合及其不同模式对农村生态环境总体上具有正向促进作用,人力资本在农村产业融合影响农村生态环境中起到正向积极调节作用,而城镇化则呈现出负向的调节作用,且农村经济增长在农村产业融合与农村生态环境之间中介效应明显。因此,推动农村产业融合的生态化转型,着力培育乡土人才,促进城镇化绿色发展,强化数字技术对农村经济新增长点的赋能等措施能够提高农村产业融合对生态环境的积极作用。

长江经济带粮食生态全要素生产率的时空特征

在资源环境约束趋紧、确保粮食安全底线多重压力下,厘清长江经济带粮食生态全要素生产率对深入推进长江大保护至关重要。基于2011—2020年长江经济带110个地级市数据,对粮食生产环节的碳排放、面源污染和生态价值进行测算,构建非期望产出框架下的投入产出体系,运用超效率Slacks-Based Measure模型和全局Malmquist-Luenberger指数考察长江经济带粮食生态全要素生产率的时空动态特征。研究发现:1)2012—2020年间长江经济带粮食生态全要素生产率总体呈增长态势,年均增长0.98%,且其增长主要源于技术进步而非技术效率提升所致。2)从时空特征看,2012—2020年长江经济带各地级市的粮食生态全要素生产率改善趋势明显,粮食综合技术效率变化的空间格局变化趋势无明显规律。3)在研究期内上游地区的粮食生态全要素生产率平均最高,然后依次是中游地区、下游地区。3个区域的粮食生态全要素生产率都处于递增状态。因此,在建设农业强国的征程中,要高度重视农业技术进步并不断提升粮食生产技术效率,以此来稳定提升长江经济带粮食生态全要素生产率,同时要根据区域禀赋差异设计针对性提升策略。

双碳背景下流域横向生态补偿政策对碳排放的影响

基于2008—2021年长江经济带108个地级市面板数据,采用双重差分模型和中介效应模型,实证分析流域横向生态补偿政策对碳排放的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:流域横向生态补偿政策显著抑制碳排放量,政策实施力度每增加一个单位,碳排放量平均减少3.7701个单位,且经过一系列检验后结果仍然稳健;机制检验表明,政策实施通过提升金融发展水平和促进科学技术创新两条作用渠道实现碳减排;异质性分析结果验证政策实施效果受社会经济和创新创业双因素的影响,政策实施力度每增加一个单位,一般城市的碳排放量减少2.5230个单位,与低创新创业环境城市相比,高创新创业环境城市在碳减排效果上表现出更明显的优势。据此,建议中小流域因城施策,在推广创新技术和建立监测评估机制、强化政策和资金投入等方面予以支持。

丝绸之路经济带能源生态效率测度及影响因素

党的十八大以来,生态文明建设被提升到前所未有的战略高度,能源生态效率研究也备受关注。丝绸之路经济带作为我国重要的能源基地和对外开放新前沿,对我国经济发展具有重要意义。基于丝绸之路经济带沿线省份2006—2019年数据,运用Super-SBM和ML指数对能源生态效率分别进行静态和动态测度,并运用Tobit模型对其影响因素进行研究。实证结果显示:丝绸之路经济带能源生态效率未达到有效水平,在趋势上有所下降;人口规模、产业结构、科学技术水平对能源生态效率具有积极的推动作用;而能源消费结构和对外开放水平则起到了抑制作用。据此,提出促进产业结构优化升级、大力发展清洁能源、调整进出口商品结构、完善创新驱动发展战略等建议。

淮河生态经济带数字经济对绿色技术创新的影响研究

创新是发展的第一动力.绿色技术创新能够带动国家经济向着循环可持续的方向前进,从而提升经济质量.基于淮河生态经济带特殊的战略定位,本文以淮河生态经济带为研究对象,分析该区域数字经济对绿色技术创新的影响.研究发现:数字经济的发展能够显著促进淮河生态经济带绿色技术创新水平的提升,并具有显著的空间溢出效应.同时,数字经济的发展对淮河生态经济带绿色技术创新水平的促进存在明显的区域差异,对淮河生态经济带中西部内陆崛起区的促进效果要明显好于东部海江河湖联动区和北部淮海经济区.另外,东部海江河湖联动区数字经济与绿色技术创新水平较高,对周围区域的溢出效果要大于中部区域.最后,根据研究结论,从促进淮河生态经济带数字经济发展的角度提出政策建议,以提升该区域绿色技术创新能力.

长江经济带矿产——经济——生态环境系统耦合协调发展研究

为贯彻落实“共抓大保护,不搞大开发”的建设思想理念,实现长江经济带绿色可持续发展,基于2001—2019年长江经济带11省市的相关数据,构建了矿产资源—区域经济—生态环境评价体系。通过设定三大子系统的优先发展级,运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型定量分析不同优先级下的矿产资源—区域经济—生态环境系统耦合协调发展水平,并从中选取最优发展模式。结果表明:长江经济带三系统耦合协调发展特征显著,整体上由轻度失调区间上升至中级协调区间,且耦合协调度值上游<中游<下游。分省来看,耦合协调程度由低到高依次为云南、江西、贵州、安徽、湖南、上海、重庆、江苏、四川、浙江、湖北。除了湖北、浙江、四川三省位于良好协调区间外,其余8省市均位于中级协调区间。同时,“经济优先”仅适用于短期发展,“环境优先”更适合长期发展。故为促进长江经济带协调可持续发展,整体上应坚持以环境保护为重心的发展战略,个体上要进一步针对不同省市采取差异化的措施。

长江经济带旅游生态韧性与效率协同效应及空间特征分析

韧性与效率是可持续发展的两个核心议题,促进旅游生态韧性与效率深度协同,是长江经济带旅游业高质量发展与生态文明建设的应有之义。文章以2010—2019年长江经济带11个省(市)为研究对象,在构建旅游生态韧性与效率评价指标体系并测度其水平的基础上,运用哈肯模型探究二者的协同效应,并分析其动态演化态势及空间分布特征,结果表明:(1)研究期内,长江经济带整体旅游生态效率水平较高,是主导协同演化的序参量,区域旅游生态韧性有待提升。东部地区属于旅游生态韧性与效率“双高”地区,但下滑趋势明显;西部地区旅游生态韧性与效率均有显著提升;中部地区属于旅游生态韧性与效率“洼地”。(2)长江经济带旅游生态韧性与效率整体协同水平呈现向优质协同发展的趋势。江苏省、上海市、贵州省、四川省属于优质协同区域;湖北省、湖南省、安徽省属于系统失调区域。(3)随时间推移,优质协同地区对周边地区的虹吸效应在降低,区域协同水平呈现出“东部>西部>中部”到“东、西双核突出”再到“西部超越”的空间演化格局。(4)旅游生态韧性与效率存在复杂的竞合关系,三大地区也面临不同的协同困境,其中,东部地区旅游发展新动能不足,中部地区旅游生态系统存在低水平趋同式发展的困境,西部地区需解决旅游业内部发展差距大的弊端。

乡村振兴—乡村旅游—生态环境耦合协调的时空演化差异——以长江经济带为例

乡村振兴(RR)-乡村旅游(RT)-生态环境(EE)是相互支撑、相互促进的有机统一整体,如何保证三者之间的协调发展已成为中国实现乡村可持续发展亟待解决的重要问题。以长江经济带9省2市为研究区域,基于耦合协调机理构建评价指标体系,运用ESDA、核密度估计、泰尔指数等方法测度2005-2021年三大系统的综合发展指数、耦合协调度及时空演化差异。结果显示:①长江经济带RR、RT和EE指数表现各异但均为增长态势,在综合发展水平上呈现出RR>EE>RT的总体趋势,大体表现为RR超前,RT与EE滞后;②三大系统从高耦合、低协调向高耦合、高协调转变,且协调度从严重失调向优质协调稳步推进,空间上呈现出上-中-下游逐渐上升的阶梯分布态势,各地区都在不同时期出现高值集聚;③核密度曲线显示长江经济带协调程度显著提升,空间上呈现出明显的非均衡性,泰尔指数显示空间差异下降明显,提升长江经济带协调水平的关键在于缩小上-中-下游的区内差异。

湄公河流域农业生态建设经验及其对中国长江经济带的启示

农业生态建设是实现农业可持续发展的必然之路,自20世纪80年代以来,“高投入、高能耗、高污染”农业发展模式导致土壤、水体污染,生态环境承载压力加大。加速转向高效节能、可持续的农业高质量发展迫在眉睫。本研究以湄公河流域国家为例,在分析湄公河流域国家农业生态建设发展现状的基础上,总结湄公河流域国家农业生态建设经验,对标中国长江经济带,提出农业生态建设的对策和建议。研究发现,湄公河流域国家农业生态建设的经验包括:以硬约束为支撑的缅甸农业生态建设、以合作社为抓手的泰国农业生态建设、因地制宜的老挝农业生态建设、越南数字化赋能农业生态建设、强化气候适应性为重点的柬埔寨农业生态建设。据此,本研究提出应完善顶层设计,加快长江经济带农业生态建设布局;强化新型经营主体带动作用,引导小农户参与农业生态建设;因地制宜,探索长江经济带不同区域的发展模式;发展数字化农业产业,打造智慧高效型农业生产模式;采取多样化措施来增强气候适应性,推动农业可持续发展。