A quantitative model is built and the historical variation of natural disasters is analyzed in this paper,by using materials as affected area(damaged area),affected population(dead and injured),casualty of livestock,c...A quantitative model is built and the historical variation of natural disasters is analyzed in this paper,by using materials as affected area(damaged area),affected population(dead and injured),casualty of livestock,collapsed houses(damaged houses),decrease of crops yield,economic loss(direct and indirect) and price index over the same period of Ningxia natural disasters(include drought,flood,gale and hail,frost,pest disasters and other disasters) during 1978-2007,and applying gray correlation analysis method.The long-term changes trend of natural disasters is analyzed by the application of the least squares method for linear trend,and the oscillation period is analyzed by using the maximum entropy statistical method.It is found that natural disasters have basically 2 to 3 years of variation period either in the whole region or in the individual regions;from the mid 1980s to the late 1990s,Ningxia is in an oscillation period with disasters attacked frequently in decadal and interannual scale under the background of climate;the increase of damage intensity of natural disasters slow down and tends to decrease since 2000.展开更多
Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural ...Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.展开更多
There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to eval...There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.展开更多
From theories and cases,this paper analyzed current situation of subsidy policy system for agricultural natural disasters in China.Improvement and perfection of subsidy policies for agricultural natural disasters need...From theories and cases,this paper analyzed current situation of subsidy policy system for agricultural natural disasters in China.Improvement and perfection of subsidy policies for agricultural natural disasters need clear classification and additional special subsidy plan.It is recommended to improve and perfect subsidy policy system for agricultural natural disasters through attaching importance to scientific studies on reduction and prevention of agricultural disasters and gradually supplementing agricultural disaster reduction and prevention system.展开更多
This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration...This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration is a population density-dependent phenomenon. This study has adopted correlation analysis, multivariate linear/Poisson regression analyses, and Granger causality analysis to verify the linkages of natural disaster-migration and population-migration in historical China by collecting updated datasets. This study is the first attempt to reveal that the duration effects of natural disasters on the migration of agriculturalists are short-term and almost instantaneous. Although the agrarian society has a low buffering capacity, the effects of natural disasters within a short-term scale could be relieved to some extent. However, population pressure can push migration on a long-term scale despite its limited forcefulness.展开更多
Globally, 2000 was an normal year in terms of economic loss from natural disasters. An analysis of the characters and distribution of major global natural disasters in the year 2000 is made and a discussion on the cau...Globally, 2000 was an normal year in terms of economic loss from natural disasters. An analysis of the characters and distribution of major global natural disasters in the year 2000 is made and a discussion on the causes of these disasters is presented in accordance with collected data of global natural disasters.展开更多
In the event of natural disasters, Sierra Leone like any other country loses lives as well as properties and natural resources. Despite notable occurrences of small disasters in the country, only on August 14th sugarl...In the event of natural disasters, Sierra Leone like any other country loses lives as well as properties and natural resources. Despite notable occurrences of small disasters in the country, only on August 14th sugarloaf landslide and the resulting flash flood (twin disasters) which affected Regent and other communities in 2017 have captured both national and international attention due to their alarming impacts. To obtain a better knowledge on the nature of the disasters, this research considered the geological context of the landslide and focused on statistical analysis of the impacts of the twin disasters using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Geological field-based approach and self-administered questionnaires of both closed and open-ended questions, personal interviews and observations were adopted as research techniques. Descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis were used to analyze the data of the research. Relevant literature from books, journals, and newspapers was also consulted, including Radio, Television discussions and the internet. Slope destabilization that caused the Landslide was linked to the geology of sub-surface formation (highly weathered olivine gabbro), lineaments and the rate of weathering. Study showed remarkable economic, social and political impacts as a consequence of the twin disasters. Study also revealed that families assisted the most in both financial and non-financial ways to the victims, and renowned misappropriation of donated disaster funds. All variables tested using student t-distribution and chi-square test of independence accepted the hypothesis. Information obtained from this work could be fundamental for policy makers and development practitioners (Osuteye & Leck, 2017).展开更多
基金Supported by Ningxia Natural Science Fund Program(NZ08155)Program for Tackling Key Problems in Science and Technology in Ningxia(KGX-12-09-02)~~
文摘A quantitative model is built and the historical variation of natural disasters is analyzed in this paper,by using materials as affected area(damaged area),affected population(dead and injured),casualty of livestock,collapsed houses(damaged houses),decrease of crops yield,economic loss(direct and indirect) and price index over the same period of Ningxia natural disasters(include drought,flood,gale and hail,frost,pest disasters and other disasters) during 1978-2007,and applying gray correlation analysis method.The long-term changes trend of natural disasters is analyzed by the application of the least squares method for linear trend,and the oscillation period is analyzed by using the maximum entropy statistical method.It is found that natural disasters have basically 2 to 3 years of variation period either in the whole region or in the individual regions;from the mid 1980s to the late 1990s,Ningxia is in an oscillation period with disasters attacked frequently in decadal and interannual scale under the background of climate;the increase of damage intensity of natural disasters slow down and tends to decrease since 2000.
文摘Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.
基金supported by the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51079037)Opening Foundation of Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration(LPM2011002)Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(No.1208085ME75)
文摘There are many uncertain factors,such as stochastic,fuzzy and gray information in the risk analysis on natural hazard.The set pair analysis(SPA)deals effectively with the various uncertain factors contributing to evaluation of the risk level of natural disasters.The evaluation indicators and standards of natural disasters risk are analyzed by identity-discrepancycontrary(IDC).The result,the connection numbers,still has uncertainty information.Thus,yielding the risk evaluation model of natural disasters based on connection function,which construct a set pair relation between the indicators of connection numbers and comprehensive evaluation standards,and describe uncertainty of the connection numbers by using connection function.The study showed that the proposed model takes into account only the uncertainty of risk evaluation indicator identification on natural disasters,also the uncertainty of result connection numbers.This approach gives full consideration to the uncertainty of systematic evaluation process along with the actual meaning of comprehensive evaluation functions.Therefore,this means it is able to reduce the uncertainty of final evaluation results and improve the accuracy and reasonability of evaluation results.This model is capable of reflecting actual situation of the risk evaluation on natural disaster affected by various uncertain factors and has a promotional value in the natural disaster risk assessment.
文摘From theories and cases,this paper analyzed current situation of subsidy policy system for agricultural natural disasters in China.Improvement and perfection of subsidy policies for agricultural natural disasters need clear classification and additional special subsidy plan.It is recommended to improve and perfect subsidy policy system for agricultural natural disasters through attaching importance to scientific studies on reduction and prevention of agricultural disasters and gradually supplementing agricultural disaster reduction and prevention system.
基金support from Early Career Scheme funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong(Grant No.28300717)Internal Research Grant(Grant No.RG68/2016-2017)+1 种基金Start-up Research Grant(Grant No.RG1/2016-2017R)Dean’s Research Output Prize(Grant No.04233-SSC ROP-3)from the Education University of Hong Kong and Rachel Carson Fellowship 2017-2018
文摘This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration is a population density-dependent phenomenon. This study has adopted correlation analysis, multivariate linear/Poisson regression analyses, and Granger causality analysis to verify the linkages of natural disaster-migration and population-migration in historical China by collecting updated datasets. This study is the first attempt to reveal that the duration effects of natural disasters on the migration of agriculturalists are short-term and almost instantaneous. Although the agrarian society has a low buffering capacity, the effects of natural disasters within a short-term scale could be relieved to some extent. However, population pressure can push migration on a long-term scale despite its limited forcefulness.
文摘Globally, 2000 was an normal year in terms of economic loss from natural disasters. An analysis of the characters and distribution of major global natural disasters in the year 2000 is made and a discussion on the causes of these disasters is presented in accordance with collected data of global natural disasters.
文摘In the event of natural disasters, Sierra Leone like any other country loses lives as well as properties and natural resources. Despite notable occurrences of small disasters in the country, only on August 14th sugarloaf landslide and the resulting flash flood (twin disasters) which affected Regent and other communities in 2017 have captured both national and international attention due to their alarming impacts. To obtain a better knowledge on the nature of the disasters, this research considered the geological context of the landslide and focused on statistical analysis of the impacts of the twin disasters using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Geological field-based approach and self-administered questionnaires of both closed and open-ended questions, personal interviews and observations were adopted as research techniques. Descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis were used to analyze the data of the research. Relevant literature from books, journals, and newspapers was also consulted, including Radio, Television discussions and the internet. Slope destabilization that caused the Landslide was linked to the geology of sub-surface formation (highly weathered olivine gabbro), lineaments and the rate of weathering. Study showed remarkable economic, social and political impacts as a consequence of the twin disasters. Study also revealed that families assisted the most in both financial and non-financial ways to the victims, and renowned misappropriation of donated disaster funds. All variables tested using student t-distribution and chi-square test of independence accepted the hypothesis. Information obtained from this work could be fundamental for policy makers and development practitioners (Osuteye & Leck, 2017).
